Good to see we're into some graphs...

So, to set the scene, I guess everyone is familiar with what is happening in these two examples:


YouTube Vid: Heating Curve of Water -Time lapse with Graph

and

YouTube Vid: Doc Physics - Latent Heat of Fusion and Vaporization


Now... For something the size of the ice fields and permafrost on our one dear planet... How long a temperature plateau might we expect before we notice signs of increased heating?...


All on our only one planet,
Martin

Nice videos Martin. So if from what I understand of them is, That water and ice make excellent heat sinks. And maybe that is why results of mankinds supossedly adding to the green house gasses has gone unnoticed?

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Old James

Well as you add heat ice melts and if the ice is over land IE not floating, the sea level will rise.
Of course the temperature fluctuations of any ice through the year is much more complicated than a steady state theoretical argument or a non-equilibrium experiment.

Will the temperature rise be moderated by the melting ice absorbing heat, well that's a reasonable assumption for a closed system. Do you think the planet is a closed system. If its not then any external loses or additions will have to be factored in.

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Well as you add heat ice melts and if the ice is over land IE not floating, the sea level will rise.
Of course the temperature fluctuations of any ice through the year is much more complicated than a steady state theoretical argument or a non-equilibrium experiment.

Will the temperature rise be moderated by the melting ice absorbing heat, well that's a reasonable assumption for a closed system. Do you think the planet is a closed system. If its not then any external loses or additions will have to be factored in.

That might be a question that real scientists need to answer.

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[/quote]

Old James

Well as you add heat ice melts and if the ice is over land IE not floating, the sea level will rise.
Of course the temperature fluctuations of any ice through the year is much more complicated than a steady state theoretical argument or a non-equilibrium experiment.

Will the temperature rise be moderated by the melting ice absorbing heat...

Phew! The "non-equilibrium" comment is a bit too-brief-obscure even for me... ;-)


To try to comment:

Ice that is on land that then melts will add a volume of water to the oceans to then cause the sea level to rise;

Floating ice that then melts does not directly change the sea level because the ice was floating in the sea to begin with (the volume of the melt-water fits exactly in the same underwater volume that the ice floated in);

As the average temperature of the ocean increases, the volume of the ocean increases due to the thermal expansion of the water to thus raise the sea level. (Most materials expand as you raise their temperature. Water above 4 deg C likewise expands as you warm it up.)


There is a "positive feedback" mechanism in that the dark ocean water absorbs most of the sunlight to so warm the water. Whereas ice cover will reflect most of the sunlight away from the Earth's surface to then keep that ice cover cold.


Now... If average heat in from the sun equals the average heat lost back to space, then we should expect the ice cover for our planet and the ocean temperature to stay at the same average.

If we have an increase of heat input, or a reduction in the heat lost to space, then the ice and oceans of our planet will 'for a time' 'soak up' the extra heat.


The nasty shock comes when the ice-ocean 'heat reservoir' is finally exhausted...

Note also that we can expect some small fluctuations in temperature as various parts of the 'natural thermal reservoirs' come into play and are then exhausted around various parts of the world. After that, we then get to see more of a steady rise to whatever new temperature balance comes into play.


All on our only one world,
Martin

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See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

Question is, what melted the ice from the last ice age?

How long did it take to melt that ice?

Seems to me our rock is looking for a balance, regardless of what dominate lifeform is on this rock.

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Must not conflict resolve by suggesting that someone should go sit on an ice pick...

found these graphs

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Whats really interesting is after 120 thousand years is sea level peaks. And then slowly goes down as ice builds up. We are in the process of peaking now.
So the Earths precession will soon start to go the other way of cooling.

Mans effects of global warming may slow the process but not stop it. I can see how the southern hemisphere will react to all of us moving south as the glaciers move that way. But then what of the southern glaciers moving north?

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Old James

We are actually a long way away from the natural point of entering an ice age as we are in the position in our orbit that perihelion was at the beginning of January. That means we were at our closest, warmest, point in the middle of winter.

We need to be at aphelion in winter and with the tilt angle that gives us max winter in the North, at present the tilt is 23.4 degrees about the middle of the range.

In words of one syllable, the Earth has a wobble, but it's getting less as time goes on. Shame we can't say the same about the people of the planet.

The diet's going well thank you. :)

If the north could tilt a bit more towards the sun, it might make solar panels in Britain a bit more effective.

News story broke today about some new solar panels that use less expensive components, so hopefully could become more affordable. If the Earth's going to warm up and we get more sunshine, bring it on.

Solar panels

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Life on earth is the global equivalent of not storing things in the fridge.

I could feasibly run my laptop off this in good weather.

But you're right, even with these slightly cheaper panels, they're still too expensive once one takes total cost into account.

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Life on earth is the global equivalent of not storing things in the fridge.

And the Great Lakes are about to freeze over....

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Must not conflict resolve by suggesting that someone should go sit on an ice pick...

And the Great Lakes are about to freeze over....

Well...

At least we in SETI/BOINC are doing our bit to combat Global Cooling.

And what you are talking about at the moment is called The Weather.

Climate is something different. However, what our industry and farming are doing to the climate is pushing the weather to ever greater extremes...

At the moment, the USA has snow. Meanwhile the UK has unusually severe flooding... And elsewhere?...


All on our only one planet,
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

Please excuse me...

But day to day weather makes up the graphs you all are so fond of.

And a 250 years storm cycle that England is looking at.

And please don't call winter a polar vortex.

Understand my point?

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Must not conflict resolve by suggesting that someone should go sit on an ice pick...

Solar activity is less now and the burning of so much coal by China is causing Global Cooling as I surmised some time ago.

Also: how can the Artic ice be melting while the great lakes and the Hudson river are freezing for the fisrt time in decades.

And what you are talking about at the moment is called The Weather.

A very good point. Climate is long term, weather is short term.

And if the scientists can barely predict the weather correctly more than a few days in advance, HTH are we supposed to believe they can predict things 10, 20 or 50 years ahead ?

Chicken hepatoscopists have as much chance of predicting the climate in 50 years time as the AGW cult !!

T.A.

Global warming is being caused by humans, not the sun, and is highly sensitive to carbon, new research shows
New research reinforces human-caused global warming and a climate that's highly sensitive to an increased greenhouse effect

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Reality Internet Personality

And what you are talking about at the moment is called The Weather.

A very good point. Climate is long term, weather is short term.

And if the scientists can barely predict the weather correctly more than a few days in advance, HTH are we supposed to believe they can predict things 10, 20 or 50 years ahead ?

Chicken hepatoscopists have as much chance of predicting the climate in 50 years time as the AGW cult !!

T.A.

hear hear... +1

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Must not conflict resolve by suggesting that someone should go sit on an ice pick...

Global warming is being caused by humans, not the sun, and is highly sensitive to carbon, new research shows
New research reinforces human-caused global warming and a climate that's highly sensitive to an increased greenhouse effect

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics !! No new research, nothing ground breaking, just a "re-evaluation" of the SOS but multiplied by a different "K factor" in order to get the results they wanted !!!

It is a real shame that reality is not echoing the predictions of the AGW doomsayers.

So far there is nothing in the so called extremes of weather that has not occurred before. Australia has had hot spells, the USA has had blizzards and the UK/Europe has had wet winters.

Half a degree is NOT the end of the world, neither is a centimetre or rise in sea level over the past 100 years.

The AGW mob is clutching at straws and know it. But they have to keep publishing this sh*t because their grants depend on it !!

T.A.

At the moment, the USA has snow. Meanwhile the UK has unusually severe flooding... And elsewhere?...

For the moment the Netherlands has skipped the winter entirely. Temperatures have not dropped below zero degrees Celcius. It has been continuously sunny with temperatures around 10 degrees.

I bet that the winter will hit us in March/April. And then May will be summer. And then from June to August it will be Autumnish, with periods of summer. Than September will be summer again and half October it will get autumn again.

Thought the ozone hole was over the South pole, or is this another one i've missed?

Given how i react to sunlight anyway:

I'll stay well away!

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Life on earth is the global equivalent of not storing things in the fridge.