Coronavirus, Ebola and Infectious diseases, Food & Drugs, Studies, Recalls #6

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moomin
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Message 2049519 - Posted: 17 May 2020, 18:31:32 UTC

Many think Sweden is reckless in this pandemic crisis.
So here is a good explanation why we are not.
https://youtu.be/ypwoyVl5Dxk
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Message 2049574 - Posted: 18 May 2020, 12:32:12 UTC - in response to Message 2049514.  

I have said for years that mankind needs to curb the human population growth and if we don't do it mother nature will.


Won't be from COVid.

As a Worldwide Killer, COVid is a Weak, Very Weak Killer.

Find Whatever List of TOP Worldwide Killers and COVid is Nothing when Compared.

RUBEWorld is Livin' STRONG. REAL STRONG.

Yep


Covid was just a trial run to test vectors.........

"Sour Grapes make a bitter Whine." <(0)>
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Message 2049627 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 2:40:32 UTC

4 of the top 5 countries are run by leaders who downplayed this pandemic at 1st and took action far too late.

India is the 11th country now to report over 100K cases, but like Brazil this is expected to explode.

Saudi Arabia has moved into 15th spot, Chile into 18th, while Belarus pushed Sweden down to 25th spot and South Africa knocked Japan back to 37th place.

Meanwhile Algeria, Bahrain and Afghanistan have knocked Australia (not Austria) down to 54th spot and it won't be much longer and we'll be in the same position our position in the world by population (55th place, then I'll be happy with our response so far. Not ecstatic, but happy).
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Message 2049633 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 3:31:58 UTC - in response to Message 2049627.  

USA had more new cases than the 30th country on the list has total cases. Kind Donald really know how to be number one!
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Message 2049635 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 3:47:37 UTC
Last modified: 19 May 2020, 3:49:36 UTC

The graphs below are for "New reported cases by day" for New York, on the left, and the Rest of the US, on the right.



The "Y" axis is marked 0, 10,000 and 20,000. they are very faint lines.
The "X" axis is marked March, April and May

From https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/16/us/coronavirus-united-states.html

Scary for most
CHICAGO — The number of new coronavirus cases confirmed in the United States has steadily declined in recent days. In New York, the figure has dropped over the past month. The numbers have also plunged in hard-hit Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and some states, including Vermont, Hawaii and Alaska, are reporting few new cases at all.
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Message 2049639 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 4:22:42 UTC

BBC - Did VE Day parties cause a spike in Covid-19 cases?

One day last week the number of new coronavirus cases registered at Bradford Royal Infirmary jumped to 30. Dr John Wright thinks there could be a link to VE Day parties that ended in fist fights, or in embraces.

The day after the Prime Minister announced an easing of the lockdown, the number of new Covid patients in the hospital fell to a reassuring three. And two of them were my medical colleagues.

The low figure partly resulted from delays in reporting, which happen every weekend, but there was still a collective sigh of relief. Maybe everything was going to be all right after all?

But three days later, on Thursday 14 May, the number of new Covid-positive patients had shot up to 30


VE day was the 8th.
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Message 2049642 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 6:45:18 UTC

It's just about the right time for the start of peak - just watch out in the ten to twenty days after each holiday weekend.
Bob Smith
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Message 2049649 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 9:29:53 UTC
Last modified: 19 May 2020, 9:31:01 UTC

To make matters even worse, 'Extremely severe' cyclone Amphan threatens India and Bangladesh. :-(

With crowds of millions being evacuated by both countries to higher ground this will only make matters worse as both these countries' with their lack of infrastructure and services are struggling now with this disease without the spread that this mass evacuation will cause. The final count in both countries will probably never be really known, but even their poor counts will likely be frightening without this on top. :-O
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Message 2049658 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 11:51:55 UTC
Last modified: 19 May 2020, 11:52:21 UTC

It has been stated that the Flu season is October to May & that the estimated global annual deaths is from 290,000 to 650,000 (12,000 to 61,000 for the U.S.).
Deadly as Covid-19 is showing, I personally think that the media & Politicians are blowing this out of proportion, even the BBC has a separate tab on its news page - Coronavirus.

Coronavirus
Common cold
Flu
Asian Flu
Bird Flu
Swine Flu
SARS
SARS-2
Covid-19

Those ones we've become well acquainted with but there are more.

How many of you have experienced going to work & finding that colleagues had a cold or the flu & were there because they did not want to lose pay?
Has anyone ever seen the media advise all those with flu to stay at home?
All the deaths so far, ARE they all from Covid-19?
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Message 2049662 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 12:29:56 UTC

Has anyone ever seen the media advise all those with flu to stay at home?
All the deaths so far, ARE they all from Covid-19?

On the State of Colorado Covid-19 data website now appears this explanation.

Beginning May 15, the department began reporting the number of deaths in two ways:
https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data
The number of deaths among people with COVID-19. This represents the total number of deaths reported among people who have COVID-19, but COVID-19 may not have been the cause of death listed on the death certificate. This information is required by the CDC and is crucial for public health surveillance, as it provides more information about disease transmission and can help identify risk factors among all deaths across populations.

The number of deaths among people who died from COVID-19: This represents the total number of people whose death was attributed to COVID-19 as indicated on a death certificate. This number is determined by the CDC and is updated daily for dates through the previous Saturday.

Currently (thru May 18th) those two numbers are: 1221 total fatalities vs 921 fatalities determined to have been caused by the disease.

This change in reporting was caused by a public outcry over one particular case where a man was pronounced to have died from Corona despite his B.A.C. being noted at 55.5%.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8324017/Colorado-health-officials-fire-saying-drunk-man-died-coronavirus.html
The man, Sebastian Yellow, a native American of the Ute Mountain Tribe, points out another very sad disease rampant for many years among Native Americans, Alcoholism. The quarantine lock down has exacerbated the problem plus a current water shortage in the Ute and Navajo communities of North West New Mexico and South West Colorado have aided in the spread of the disease.

Yes, I would say the screaming chickens at the major media outlets are definitely hyping the numbers but there seem to be some other factors contributing to the overinflated numbers.

"Sour Grapes make a bitter Whine." <(0)>
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Message 2049663 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 12:31:52 UTC - in response to Message 2049658.  

I personally think that the media & Politicians are blowing this out of proportion, even the BBC has a separate tab on its news page - Coronavirus.
That's a point of view, and it's popular in certain corners of the internet, but I think there really is something to worry about.

For the UK, I prefer to use the ONS: Deaths registered by week - that's a count of the death certificates issued. The UK's history is pretty robust in keeping long-term records like this. I think the number of certificates will be a pretty good 1::1 count of the number of dead bodies, with slight delays at weekends if offices are closed, and similar timing variations.

The link takes you to a new page today, with figures up to 8 May (graph and downloadable spreadsheet with the precise figures). That shows a surge of extra, actual, deaths by 49461 in the last 9 weeks - over 50% above recent years. And that's even after the lockdown and other emergency measures. I think it's a significant event.

Attribution of cause is more difficult. It depends on what each individual doctor writes on the notification form that they send to the registrar. Side-effects and complications of treatment probably don't count. But I think that if the initial trigger was covid-19, we should treat it as part of this unusual spring season.
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Message 2049664 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 12:36:22 UTC

In facing the virus, Mr Morrison sought out expert advice, listened to it and acted on it - despite the cost.
Shame others did not act as swift
Black kettle anyone?
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Message 2049668 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 13:17:37 UTC

Report in the Telegraph, (behind paywall), claims that 80% of virus cases* are caused by ‘Superspreader’ locations and events. Which makes the “population estimates of R0" compromised by this superspreader theory, as can be seen from my previous about VE day.

Locations include Hospitals, nursing homes, large dormitories, gyms and other sports facilities, food processing plans and food markets

Events include Choir performances, concerts, dances, funerals and parties which includes those at the resort of Ischgl in the Tyrolean Alps.

* It also holds true for other viruses such as measles and Ebola, as well as the coronaviruses Mers and Sars.
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Message 2049675 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 13:35:32 UTC - in response to Message 2049663.  

I personally think that the media & Politicians are blowing this out of proportion, even the BBC has a separate tab on its news page - Coronavirus.
That's a point of view, and it's popular in certain corners of the internet...
Maybe so, but the media & politicans haven't been that effective in changing that view.
... but I think there really is something to worry about.
Only the selfish would deny that.
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Message 2049677 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 13:51:33 UTC - in response to Message 2049668.  
Last modified: 19 May 2020, 13:54:14 UTC

Events include Choir performances, concerts, dances, funerals and parties which includes those at the resort of Ischgl in the Tyrolean Alps.
Strange. Ski resorts have events like the other that gather many people. So why do they only name Ischgl? Anyway, the skiing season is over.
The Austrian ski resort Ischgl, which has been designated a center for the spread of infection in Europe, is now again virus free, reports the DPA news agency [a week ago]. Also, several other places in the vicinity are more or less free from the infection according to the latest statistics.
Ischgl and the federal state of Tyrol, where the resort is located, received harsh criticism for acting too passively in the initial stage of the infection and, among other things, failed to stop skiing and after skiing events where many from other countries, including Sweden, are believed to have been infected.
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Message 2049678 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 14:15:06 UTC - in response to Message 2049668.  

Report in the Telegraph, (behind paywall), claims that 80% of virus cases* are caused by ‘Superspreader’ locations and events.
I think that there are two separate mechanisms we need to distinguish between:

* The 'seeders' who - even individually - visit one location to get infected, and then drop it in other places unrelated to the source.

* The 'distributors', who get infected from that one seed, and circulate it round and round and round their local peer group until everyone has got it.

And there are possibly local pockets which have never been visited by either a seeder or a distributor.

The Guardian today has a strong article about one group of distributors: Agency staff were spreading Covid-19 between care homes, PHE found in April. So far, I've only seen the front page part of that story in a newspaper review: I'm heading out to the shop now to pick up the whole paper, to see if it names the seeder on page 6.

I have a recurring nightmare - and this is purely fictional, from my brain alone - that while Boris Johnson was safely tucked up in isolation/hospital, Dominic Cummings secretly crept out at night to seed the care homes. Reason? - everybody who has looked at the much-needed future reform of the British care system has shuddered at the cost, and put the file back on the shelf for the next government to deal with. So, let coronavirus cull the current occupants: no one will dare to move into the vacant rooms: the fees will dry up: the management will go bankrupt: Dom and his friends will be able to buy them up cheap in the resulting fire sale: and make a killing (sorry!) from the increased fees they'll be able to charge for the 'enhanced biosecurity' they'll be able to boast about when we've all forgotten about this and the next age-group need to be housed.

Please tell me it's not true.
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Message 2049681 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 14:46:31 UTC - in response to Message 2049678.  

A total of about 3,700 people have died with covid-19 in Sweden. About a third of them lived in elderly care homes. This was stated by the Public Health Authority. In Stockholm, half of all deaths are from elderly care homes .
- Much else works quite well, but the infection in the elderly homes is a big problem, says Anders Tegnell, state epidemiologist.
Meaning that here many of the "superspreaders" are people who work with elderly care...
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Message 2049683 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 15:05:39 UTC - in response to Message 2049658.  

It has been stated that the Flu season is October to May & that the estimated global annual deaths is from 290,000 to 650,000 (12,000 to 61,000 for the U.S.).
Deadly as Covid-19 is showing, I personally think that the media & Politicians are blowing this out of proportion, even the BBC has a separate tab on its news page - Coronavirus.


that's 12,000-60,000 U.S. Flu deaths WITHOUT mitigation/quarantine. from Oct-May

COVID-19 in the U.S. has killed over 90,000 WITH mitigation/quarantine, from Feb-now, in half the time. . and these numbers are likely under-reported from lack of testing every single death, and would be even worse without any mitigation/quarantine. It's not really blown out of proportion.

Similarly with the numbers coming out of poorer and more remote areas in Africa and South America, I believe the numbers are likely higher than being currently reported due to lack of testing available and generally poorer medical conditions. Then the added variable of some countries purposely withholding some/all stats in an effort to save face and have the image that they have it "under control". Do you really believe North Korea has 0 cases?
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Message 2049685 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 15:30:27 UTC - in response to Message 2049683.  

It has been stated that the Flu season is October to May & that the estimated global annual deaths is from 290,000 to 650,000 (12,000 to 61,000 for the U.S.).
Deadly as Covid-19 is showing, I personally think that the media & Politicians are blowing this out of proportion, even the BBC has a separate tab on its news page - Coronavirus.


that's 12,000-60,000 U.S. Flu deaths WITHOUT mitigation/quarantine. from Oct-May

COVID-19 in the U.S. has killed over 90,000 WITH mitigation/quarantine, from Feb-now, in half the time. . and these numbers are likely under-reported from lack of testing every single death, and would be even worse without any mitigation/quarantine. It's not really blown out of proportion.

Similarly with the numbers coming out of poorer and more remote areas in Africa and South America, I believe the numbers are likely higher than being currently reported due to lack of testing available and generally poorer medical conditions. Then the added variable of some countries purposely withholding some/all stats in an effort to save face and have the image that they have it "under control". Do you really believe North Korea has 0 cases?

You are absolutely right.

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Message 2049686 - Posted: 19 May 2020, 15:53:55 UTC - in response to Message 2049683.  

that's 12,000-60,000 U.S. Flu deaths WITHOUT mitigation/quarantine. from Oct-May

COVID-19 in the U.S. has killed over 90,000 WITH mitigation/quarantine, from Feb-now, in half the time. . and these numbers are likely under-reported from lack of testing every single death, and would be even worse without any mitigation/quarantine. It's not really blown out of proportion.
If what has already been posted here is true, then your numbers do not show an accurate view. Doctors hedging their bets on deaths (If true of course) totally skews the numbers.

With that in mind, HOW many of that 90,000 are from Covid-19?
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Message boards : Politics : Coronavirus, Ebola and Infectious diseases, Food & Drugs, Studies, Recalls #6


 
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