All this baloney about stats, reminds me of Number 6:
I Am Not A Number

.....you are to your Government....

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"Sour Grapes make a bitter Whine." <(0)>

Come to think about it. An easy way would be to make graphs comparing data of the total deaths from last year and this year no matter the cause. The difference is the extra people dying of COVID-19.

The UK is now doing exactly that.



These are the coronavirus figures only - 'mentioned' vs. 'confirmed and died in hospital'. There's another graph of 'deaths from all causes, this year vs average of previous five years', but I haven't found it online yet.

(edit - browser-friendly image)

Edit - No image (unless I make one), but the graph (and raw data) can be seen at Deaths registered by week. In short, for week 15 in the official calendar, 18516 deaths this year, against a 5-year average of 10520.

Not really. It merely show the discrepancy between reported cases and total cases of death causes mentioning COVID-19 in this year. I was thinking about comparing death stats from this year to other years no matter of death cause. The extra people are dying of COVID-19.

Btw. The data shown are for England and Wales. How about Scotland and Northern Ireland? Eh... Don't bother to answer because I know their data reporting are different:)

I'll grab the one from the second link. Had to re-plot it from the ONS spreadsheet download (on a machine which is crying out for a reboot!), but I'm pretty sure it's accurate.

Not really. It merely show the discrepancy between reported cases and total cases of death causes mentioning COVID-19 in this year. I was thinking about comparing death stats from this year to other years no matter of death cause. The extra people are dying of COVID-19.

Richard did say,

There's another graph of 'deaths from all causes, this year vs average of previous five years', but I haven't found it online yet.

The argument of not listing deaths in patients with comorbidity factors is a red herring. Those comorbidity factors were under control by drugs or therapy before the stress of the virus was added to the picture. So whether it was the prime killer or just the trigger it still ultimately caused the fatality.

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"Sour Grapes make a bitter Whine." <(0)>

Not really. It merely show the discrepancy between reported cases and total cases of death causes mentioning COVID-19 in this year. I was thinking about comparing death stats from this year to other years no matter of death cause. The extra people are dying of COVID-19.

Richard did say,

There's another graph of 'deaths from all causes, this year vs average of previous five years', but I haven't found it online yet.

Yes. And that's a problem I think many politicians and officials within the healthcare have as well.

The argument of not listing deaths in patients with comorbidity factors is a red herring. Those comorbidity factors were under control by drugs or therapy before the stress of the virus was added to the picture. So whether it was the prime killer or just the trigger it still ultimately caused the fatality.

Hear. Hear. Dr JE is of course right:) Nah. That's to simplify the whole procedure when doctors are issuing death certificates.

The argument of not listing deaths in patients with comorbidity factors is a red herring. Those comorbidity factors were under control by drugs or therapy before the stress of the virus was added to the picture. So whether it was the prime killer or just the trigger it still ultimately caused the fatality.

I think this is a point of logic.

I do think however we should register such deaths as 'co-morbidity' and list complicating effects or illnesses.

I also think we should register all the current medication, immunisations and illnesses a person is effected by in general that shows covid positive (or perhaps negative.)

The argument around 'Quinine' ('Cinchona') is a case in point. I have seen no research pointing to the millions of Quinine users where lower morbidity is shown.

Statistically I would have thought that somewhere or within some groups there is an effect on Covid morbidity for some reason or another however unexpected or overlooked.

Richard did say,

There's another graph of 'deaths from all causes, this year vs average of previous five years', but I haven't found it online yet.

And now I've found it and posted it. Figures to 10 April - 'all registrations' is a slower process than 'hospital deaths only'. But the final two weeks are stark.

Has the US published anything similar yet? I've been sent a silly commentary which says effectively says 'nothing to see here' (and also libels Bill Gates along the way) - but...

Now, this article in the newsletter of the Ron Paul Institute begins to answer that question. The article shows that the numbers for the month of March do not seem to be that much different from those of previous years.

We would say the same about the UK, if we could ignore those last two weeks.

The argument around 'Quinine' ('Cinchona') is a case in point. I have seen no research pointing to the millions of Quinine users where lower morbidity is shown.

Oh. G and T is perhaps a cure. Where do I sign to being part of that study?

The argument of not listing deaths in patients with comorbidity...

... Statistically I would have thought that somewhere or within some groups there is an effect on Covid morbidity for some reason or another however unexpected or overlooked.

That's a very interesting point.

We may get to see something in the numbers where some particular group or groups may be 'underrepresented'. However for that, we're trying to look for something that is 'avoiding deaths' and unfortunately, we don't have any useful stats for those that have been exposed to the Coronavirus and have 'shrugged it off'.

Also, are some groups far more effective at isolating themselves from the rest of the 'unclean' world?


I do wonder how much 'lifestyle' is a factor to affect the outcome...

Immediate thoughts are for example that smokers are at an immediate disadvantage due to their smoking having already damaged their airways.


Something recurring in the news is that notably transport workers are dying due to Coronavirus.

Is that because they are somehow more susceptible? Or are they somehow suffering an overwhelming exposure? Or something else? Or just more newsworthy?


Stay safe!
Martin

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See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

Now, this article in the newsletter of the Ron Paul Institute begins to answer that question. The article shows that the numbers for the month of March do not seem to be that much different from those of previous years.

Well that clearly say that's not easy to compare numbers. My idea goes out the window...

Of course, it is entirely possible that total deaths are pushed down by social distancing practices. With fewer vehicles on the road, there are fewer auto accidents. Diseases other than COVID-19 might be spread less often as well. On the other hand, economic collapse exacerbated by social distancing may be leading to more suicide and stress-related health problems. The extent to which these various factors contribute to overall mortality is unknown, and may never be known. Moreover, the total number of deaths due to COVID-19 is unreliable since deaths are increasingly attributed to COVID-19 even when no test is performed and when other serious medical problems are present. But what does appear evident is that deaths due to COVID-19, at least so far, have not been sufficient to increase total mortality to a level that significantly exceeds what has been seen in the past decade.

But what does appear evident is that deaths due to COVID-19, at least so far, have not been sufficient to increase total mortality to a level that significantly exceeds what has been seen in the past decade.

....again, apples to oranges.

Comparing 'annual' death tolls to those of just a 6 month (more or less) period is not accurate. Plus the addition of available therapies and vaccines for known seasonal respiratory illnesses also skews the fatality numbers for those viruses downward.

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"Sour Grapes make a bitter Whine." <(0)>

When a Country on Purpose Allows Infected People to Leave their Country and Seed dA World, STATISTICs
will be SKEWED MASSIVELY and NO COMPARISONs can be Made.

It's as if a Country on Purpose sends MASS KILLING TERRORISTs to dA World and DEATHs EXPLODE in Numbers
Everywhere.

Then Again, I'm dA DULLEST of ALL RUBEs in RUBEWorld - wat do I Know?

'cept dat SUPERTrump is dA GREATEST of ALL TIME. and He and US RUBEs are Lovin' da WINNING.

Yep

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May we All have a METAMORPHOSIS. REASON. GOoD JUDGEMENT and LOVE and ORDER!!!!!

If you want to see what happens when you open up for business too soon then take a look at Singapore. They were flattening their curve so they decided it open up and get their foreign construction workers back and 2 weeks latter look at them going ballistic again.

Trump and his followers very likely won't take any notice of that just like they ignore their own short comings (or try to), but they'll blame others fast enough to cover for those short comings in themselves as only greed and profit is all that really matters to them. :-(

For those uncomfortable The President is promoting Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment, here's what's all the rage in Paris........

Nicotine, sea worms and plasma - the coronavirus treatments France is trialing

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200423/nicotine-sea-worms-and-plasma-the-coronavirus-treatments-france-is-trialling?fbclid=IwAR3j-8MkCCmKG2nuq5c8Yk8GIzO5Ks1PX-4Z8g4sDXsUW14oEh53R5aWgBc

Big world, lots of ideas, who really knows what will be a viable therapy for those attacked and prophylactic for those at risk.

Then there's the other side of hysteria whose tinfoil hat wearing sycophants proclaim that when a vaccine is developed it will turn all those inoculated into goosestepping zombie automatons controlled by Bill Gates...........

Wouldn't it be refreshing to see a pandemic of cognitive reasoning sweep the globe?

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"Sour Grapes make a bitter Whine." <(0)>

It's a pity though that "Penicillium roqueforti" is not a remedy either:)
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2020/04/22/non-le-roquefort-n-est-pas-un-remede-contre-le-covid-19_6037460_4355770.html

"A Facebook post shared with us states that Professor Raoult is said to have been working with "Penicillium roqueforti" to find a cure for Covid-19. But this is not true," the newspaper stated.
This is actually a rumour that surfaces fairly regularly about roquefort, due to the fact that the mould that makes it blue belongs to the same family as penicillin.
However so far it has not been reliably proved to be a cure for anything, apart from possibly cheese cravings.

Professor Didier Raoult has also been a strong advocate of chloroquine.

For those uncomfortable The President is promoting Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment, here's what's all the rage in Paris........

Nicotine, sea worms and plasma - the coronavirus treatments France is trialing

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200423/nicotine-sea-worms-and-plasma-the-coronavirus-treatments-france-is-trialling

Big world, lots of ideas, who really knows what will be a viable therapy for those attacked and prophylactic for those at risk.

Thanks for that good link. Good and beautifully clear.

Note that Roquefort cheese and Chloroquine are not suggested as hopeful cures... The other trials described all have known plausible positive contributions to help against the Coronavirus.

Then there's the other side of hysteria whose tinfoil hat wearing sycophants proclaim that when a vaccine is developed it will turn all those inoculated into goosestepping zombie automatons controlled by Bill Gates...........

Myself, I've only ever seen movie zombies portrayed as slow, shambling, and sleepy drunk with at most a last moment one-off lunge for a fright.

Yes, we really do need to have the media, and especially Donald Trump, and the various online misinformation campaigns, turn down the hysteria.

Wouldn't it be refreshing to see a pandemic of cognitive reasoning sweep the globe?

Yes. Very much so.

But how??


All in our only one deadly greedy world,
Martin

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See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

The only thing I found wanting in the French research was they are not looking at Black Truffles and Escargot as therapy avenues...............a research in which I would happily participate.......

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"Sour Grapes make a bitter Whine." <(0)>