3: What next.......

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BarryAZ

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Message 1259195 - Posted: 12 Jul 2012, 1:15:48 UTC - in response to Message 1259185.  

Nick, I really don't see the west spinning from deflation in 2013 to 2015 to hyperinflation the next year.

Frankly I think the various central banks will push soft money for the next two years or more and then try to pull back carefully to avoid excessive inflation while not spinning the economy downhill.

The economic down draft is going to be the issue for the next few years though.

You seem to believe the world economy will jump upward in 2016 -- I'm not sanguine about that -- but if it does, that might just by itself reduce government deficits by a large amount.

A goal of a less than 3% deficit in Spain along with 25% unemployment seems like someone is selling some VERY excellent drugs.
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Nick
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Message 1259196 - Posted: 12 Jul 2012, 1:26:17 UTC - in response to Message 1259181.  

I would hope that austerity measures be phased in so to not be self-defeating. That doesn't seem to be what's been going on -- the austerity measures put in place have dented economies (and revenues) and have increased debt -- in large part because of the 'short sharp blow to the head' ideology behind them.


Austerity measures are needed that will eventually lead to the Spanish
government actually having real money to spend and invest. The bond markets
are not loosing faith in Spain because it's government is not spending enough
but because it's spending far more than it's able to cover from tax revenues.
So by Spain loaning more and hence spending more just exacerbates the problem
so one must listen to what the market is telling you. The bond market is not
penalising Spain because it doesn't like her, the market is penalising Spain
because she has not got proper control over her finances. The bond market is
telling Spain, "Get your debt down"!!, then once debt levels are reduced to
a satisfactory level then we will let you loan a lot cheaper. Now at cheaper
rates Spain can then afford to loan and invest this directly into boosting
it's economy. Currently. Spain's cost of borrowing is five times more than that
afforded to Germany. So for every dollar Spain borrows and invests
inwardly gets one fifth the return after payback that Germany would get from
the same dollar if she borrowed and invested it.

The Kite Fliers

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Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.
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Nick
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Message 1259199 - Posted: 12 Jul 2012, 1:45:05 UTC - in response to Message 1259195.  

Nick, I really don't see the west spinning from deflation in 2013 to 2015 to hyperinflation the next year.

Frankly I think the various central banks will push soft money for the next two years or more and then try to pull back carefully to avoid excessive inflation while not spinning the economy downhill.

The economic down draft is going to be the issue for the next few years though.

You seem to believe the world economy will jump upward in 2016 -- I'm not sanguine about that -- but if it does, that might just by itself reduce government deficits by a large amount.

A goal of a less than 3% deficit in Spain along with 25% unemployment seems like someone is selling some VERY excellent drugs.


2016 will be seen as the turning point but not until early 2017 will this be
declared. The hyperinflation issue will be down to how fast commodity prices
start to rise post 2016...it's going to be very interesting what ever happens.

The following is most probably the reason why the bond markets are chasing
Spain's ass...
One can pretend that Spain's officially reported debt/GDP ratio is 68.50%, or one can do a full breakdown of all liabilities, including contingent, and add the €100 billion bailout to the total, and get the following rather terrifying ratio: 146.6%.

The above taken off the net...


The Kite Fliers

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Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.
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BarryAZ

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Message 1259227 - Posted: 12 Jul 2012, 3:56:50 UTC - in response to Message 1259199.  

Nick, the thing is, until the economies of various countries turn around, badly handled and timed austerity will make things worse (economy and budget) and may push out the 'turn around' year as well.

It seems what the euro powers are trying is handling austerity as a rather blunt instrument for what is a complicated government deficit and national economic problem. I would hope they had a more precise way of doing this.

As to commodity prices -- fair point -- in particular if global demand goes up everywhere at once things will be 'interesting' -- but frankly, at that point, government deficits will be but a small piece of that puzzle. The developing economies (particularly China, India and Brazil, but with other players as well) right now ARE slowing their growth -- from an unsustainable 10% to a much lower 5% or so. If there is a western world rebound from 0% to 3+% and this is matched by a developing economy push back toward 10%, demand for all sorts of commodities is going to make things quite tight.

The US gets some additional insulation with all the natural gas coming online and we might also see some rationalization in farm production (ie a shift from corn for ethanol) as well.

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Message 1259248 - Posted: 12 Jul 2012, 5:21:30 UTC - in response to Message 1259196.  
Last modified: 12 Jul 2012, 5:35:17 UTC

Nick, your math is valid only if you assume a multiplier effect of 1.
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Message 1259317 - Posted: 12 Jul 2012, 10:54:57 UTC

Looks like my "prediction" of 20 years is not far off(the 4 years already plus what the article states)....

12 years for house prices to recover

Debt Crisis Live
09.43 Back in the UK, the Office for Budget Responsibility will tell the Government today that it needs to find up to £50bn of further spending cuts or tax rises by to keep a lid on public debts.

The official forecaster will warn that the Government must take further action on top of the current £123bn, seven-year austerity plan or debt will spiral out of control.

Chancellor George Osborne is likely to seize on the report as evidence for the need to press ahead with his tough programme of austerity measures, which include hundreds of thousands of job losses, an overhaul of the welfare system and a higher pension age.

That's going to have a detrimental effect on your austerity plans ozzie boy!
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Message 1259340 - Posted: 12 Jul 2012, 12:46:12 UTC

Hague at work.....

EU Balance of Competences Review

& the full report

A couple of statements in section one alone, does not gel with the link in the previous post then billie boy....

"Being part of the EU is central to how we in the UK create jobs, expand trade and protect our interests around the world. It enables us to drive and shape a single market of some 500 million people, with a combined GDP of £11 trillion, in which British citizens can trade, travel and work (Really? Where?) freely. It is a key reason for Britain’s attractiveness as a global business hub and place to invest. It is the basis for cooperation with our closest partners on challenges that by their nature cross borders, such as climate change, international development, migration and transnational crime. And it amplifies the UK’s voice and helps advance our values of democracy, open markets and individual rights in the wider world".

"In the 39 years of our membership, British leadership has helped to shape the EU for the better. We have been leading proponents of the EU’s most successful policies – the single market itself and enlargement to the North, South and East (So in effect, you're saying that Britain is the reaon why the nations suffering an economic mess by being drawn into the Eurozone by us?}. By being active and activist, we can continue to shape the EU that we need – outward looking, accountable (HAHAHA, laugh of the century) and responsive (Only to yourselves & not your citizens)."
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Message 1259530 - Posted: 12 Jul 2012, 18:11:04 UTC

Oh well, that's my 20 year prediction gone through the window....

OBR states that UK Austerity to last decades

..well they are the "official Independant Economic Forecasters", so who am I to dispute them?
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Message 1259563 - Posted: 12 Jul 2012, 19:12:11 UTC - in response to Message 1259530.  

Sirius, in the US, the Teapublicans have a better plan to reduce this problem.

1) Eliminate Medicare and Medicaid
2) Eliminate the duty of care on hospitals and health care professionals

The effect of this would be to kill off the poor and particularly the elderly poor with alacrity. That would reduce Social Security pension plan cost issues big time. See, problem solved.

Actually, item one is on their stated agenda (they would privatize Medicare but not provide adequate funds to individuals to obtain health insurance when the insurance costs rise as people age) and they are aggressively working to undermine Medicaid (health insurance cover for the poor).

Item 2 hasn't found its way to the table yet -- but it seems a logical extension as the cost to those who can afford care without that second item will simply be a form of capitalism + socialism as it entails all sorts of cost transfers -- something anathema to the Teapublicans.

So how come you Europeans can figure this out as the perfect solution? It makes even more sense in Europe with demographics that are more pressing. Besides, if you kill off the older segment of the population, you make room for the influx of immigrants from other continents.




Oh well, that's my 20 year prediction gone through the window....

OBR states that UK Austerity to last decades

..well they are the "official Independant Economic Forecasters", so who am I to dispute them?

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Message 1259576 - Posted: 12 Jul 2012, 19:58:15 UTC - in response to Message 1259563.  

Yes, that's what worrying me Barry. just under 6 months before I officially retire, the new changes come into effect, so instead of retiring, I will have to work another 12 months.

I think that's what they're aiming for here, hoping that many will die before retirement, hence no pension payout.

just proves my initial prediction correct - whatever way this issue is resolved, there is major suffering ahead.
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BarryAZ

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Message 1259592 - Posted: 12 Jul 2012, 20:37:00 UTC - in response to Message 1259576.  

Sirius -- my wife turns 65 later this year -- she won't draw Social Security until she turns 66 (current 'full benefit' age). She will though go from private insurance to Medicare plus Medicare supplement insurance via a private insurance company. (Unless you do that, health care benefits are somewhat limited). An example is for hospitalization coverage

Medicare Part A and B -- first 60 days $1150 deductible (supplemental picks that up)

Extended hospital - days 61 to 90. Medicare -- $289/day (supplemental picks up the balance).

Medical office visits -- Medicare $140 deductible, plus 20% co-pay (supplemental picks up the balance).

For us, the combination (Medicare plus supplemental) is several hundred dollars a month LESS than our existing insurance -- which has a *$2750* deductible and 80/20 split up to *$5500* before it kicks in full.

And we get the same doctors.

Some might see 'socialized medicine' as evil....
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Message 1259687 - Posted: 13 Jul 2012, 4:35:56 UTC - in response to Message 1259576.  

Sirius, the thing is for me -- many years ago (way back when I was in my 30's) I figured that Social Security might not be around when I was in my 60's. So I made sure we saved up for retirement without depending on it (via corporate plans when I worked corporate and various tax deferred options as well).

So in the next few years when we are able to draw on Social Security -- it simply will help our travel plans along (until we get too frail to travel I suppose).

We don't figure to outlive our assets -- and what ever is left over will find a good home in places that can make good use of it.



I think that's what they're aiming for here, hoping that many will die before retirement, hence no pension payout.


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Message 1259703 - Posted: 13 Jul 2012, 5:41:55 UTC

Besides, if you kill off the older segment of the population, you make room for the influx of immigrants from other continents.


Yep, as expected. Paid Consultant to The TeaPublicans. It's good to be a 1%er.

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Message 1259844 - Posted: 13 Jul 2012, 13:57:02 UTC - in response to Message 1259703.  

Besides, if you kill off the older segment of the population, you make room for the influx of immigrants from other continents.


Yep, as expected. Paid Consultant to The TeaPublicans. It's good to be a 1%er.

SunRiseSunSetSunRiseSunSetFourthAngel


So you're saying that someone who is prudent with their income, knowing that when they retire, they won't have the same level of income as they had while working, prepare for a rainy day are 1%ers?

You poor fool, or are you one of those who want everything now & if you can't afford it, con the system to get what you want?

Sounds to me like you fervently wish you were a 1%er & stuff everyone else!
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Message 1260613 - Posted: 15 Jul 2012, 11:32:23 UTC

Another EU member heading for a credit downgrade, who'll be next?

UK given 50% chance of downgrade

"Mr Osborne’s critics within the party argue that he is a ‘part-time Chancellor’ because he is also Mr Cameron’s head strategist: he typically starts his day in Downing Street chairing meetings which oversee all Government business, which many Tory MPs argue is a distraction from his Treasury responsibilities".

Hmmn, ozzie boy, so the treasury can run itself as the economy is rolling along nicely then - enjoying your pasties at No 10 are you?
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Message 1260901 - Posted: 15 Jul 2012, 23:28:52 UTC

It's been rumored that William Hague may become the next Chancellor of the Exchequer...

...in which case he better demand an audit of where all the Euro cash is disappearing to, as the auditors still haven't signed off on them.....

Lunchtime summary

William Hague, the foreign secretary, has announced a "comprehensive audit" of the European Union's powers over Britain. He said it would be "the most thorough and detailed analysis possible on what the exercise of the EU’s powers does and what it means for the United Kingdom". Addressing the Commons, he said it would report in 2014 and inform what all parties said about Europe in their election manifestos.

This work will help inform decisions on Britain’s future path in Europe. It is not a consultation about disengaging or withdrawing from the EU. The coalition government’s policy on Europe has not changed. We remain committed to our membership of the EU and to a strong and stable Europe.

I also believe the European Union’s future lies in continued variable geometry, in different layers of integration. Britain will choose not to take part in some layers, such as Schengen or the Euro, but will continue to play a leading part in completing the Single Market, championing free trade and enlargement, foreign policy and new areas like the Unitary Patent that benefits British business.

In the future it is my view, as it is the prime minister’s, that we must take the opportunities for Britain to shape its relationship with Europe in ways that advance our national interest in free trade, open markets and co-operation. That should involve less cost, less bureaucracy, and less meddling in the issues that belong to nation states.

This analytical exercise will help inform political parties and the British public as they consider how the United Kingdom’s democracy, prosperity and security are best advanced in Europe and in the world at large, and what kind of Europe that should become.


...rather than a stupid audit of their powers!
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Message 1261765 - Posted: 18 Jul 2012, 11:08:27 UTC

That's what the BT Infinity Hub is for - isolating within families ...
It's good to be back amongst friends and colleagues



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Message 1261826 - Posted: 18 Jul 2012, 13:55:05 UTC - in response to Message 1261783.  

Just a little unfair on a modern technology John. It is the families fault for letting this technology get in the way traditional family life. But when you consider that so many are one parent families now, with the remaining parent just wanting peace and quiet from squabbling kids, you can understand why things are like they are.

It is peoples fault, not the technology.


Which brings us right back to the Euro crisis! Take the European Social Fund - many companies have taken advantage of this & are now government service providers.

All that cash given to them to provide "literacy skills, computing skills" - these should be provided by schools & instead of sending that money to the ESF, it should be invested in our schools & their teachers.
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Message 1262167 - Posted: 19 Jul 2012, 10:17:55 UTC

Looks like this could be a Major faultline!

The Eurozone's religious faultlines

"And where will the eurozone be in 2017?"

Hopefully, resigned to history's trashcan!
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Message 1262243 - Posted: 19 Jul 2012, 17:00:06 UTC - in response to Message 1262167.  

I can just see it now, Bavaria secedes from Protestant Germany.
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Message boards : Politics : 3: What next.......


 
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