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Jeff Buck Send message Joined: 11 Feb 00 Posts: 1441 Credit: 148,764,870 RAC: 0 |
An article yesterday on Wired.com, “Breakthrough Listen†SETI Project Could Miss ET’s Phone Call, points up what is perhaps the most significant shortcoming of Seti@homes's current approach to the ET search. Namely, the initial extremely slow processing of telescope data by the Seti@home community, followed by the, so far, non-existent post-processing of the results we return. Even if Nebula gets up and running, the chances of re-observing any candidate signals that it might finally get around to identifying are almost nil, I would think. The thrust of the Wired article is that much faster candidate signal identification, followed by rapid re-observation of each signal source, is the direction that any SETI project needs to take to have any chance of success. Sadly, I don't know that the Seti@home approach will ever live up to those goals. At best, even our initial processing lags signal acquisition by many months, perhaps rendering successful re-observation nearly impossible. |
kittyman Send message Joined: 9 Jul 00 Posts: 51468 Credit: 1,018,363,574 RAC: 1,004 |
An article yesterday on Wired.com, “Breakthrough Listen†SETI Project Could Miss ET’s Phone Call, points up what is perhaps the most significant shortcoming of Seti@homes's current approach to the ET search. Namely, the initial extremely slow processing of telescope data by the Seti@home community, followed by the, so far, non-existent post-processing of the results we return. Even if Nebula gets up and running, the chances of re-observing any candidate signals that it might finally get around to identifying are almost nil, I would think. Initial processing lags signal acquisition by many months...................... You are forgetting the light years those signals may have taken to even GET here. Oh, freaking meow. We are threading our way through data looking for signals than may have taken more than man's lifetime to get here. What's the meowing hurry? LOL. "Freedom is just Chaos, with better lighting." Alan Dean Foster |
Jeff Buck Send message Joined: 11 Feb 00 Posts: 1441 Credit: 148,764,870 RAC: 0 |
Initial processing lags signal acquisition by many months...................... It's all relative. It really doesn't matter how long the signals took to get here. What matters is how long the signals are being transmitted. Hours, days, weeks, years, centuries? If we find a signal, then look for it again 5 years later and don't find it, does that mean it wasn't a legitimate ET signal, or just that ET only pointed it in our direction for a short time? |
Brent Norman Send message Joined: 1 Dec 99 Posts: 2786 Credit: 685,657,289 RAC: 835 |
This computer would work better as a doorstop. http://setiathome.berkeley.edu/results.php?hostid=7619507 |
Stephen "Heretic" Send message Joined: 20 Sep 12 Posts: 5557 Credit: 192,787,363 RAC: 628 |
I'd happily buy them a new RAID card (if that's what they need) out of the petty cash, but I think the global (if that's the right word) picture is bigger than that. . . True, there is plenty of that :) But it is not a case of Arecibo "quitting', more a matter of philistines in government pulling the plug. But it bothers me that DA has to submit a "final report" on Seti. It seems like there are those wishing to end it. I wonder how useful all the data Seti has collected would be to other scientific projects. That could be a good argument for it's continuance. Stephen . |
Stephen "Heretic" Send message Joined: 20 Sep 12 Posts: 5557 Credit: 192,787,363 RAC: 628 |
. . Sadly that request, in light Of David Andersons message about being asked to submit a final report on Seti, seems rather damning.After reading Davids link in BOINC notices, I came to much the same conclusion. Are we just spinning our wheels and wasting time and energy on flogging a dead horse? Perhaps a reason for the recent 'band aids'? . . Hi, . . This is the question that occurs to me but I was reluctant to ask it in such a negative way. As the saying goes, everything ends. But I like to think it can be stretched out somewhat further. I am worried that the "unbelievers" would argue that the lack of a confirmed ET signal by now proves there is nothing to find. But apart from the difficulty in detecting such a signal that is not aimed directly at us, if we were way out there, say about 100 light years, and we were scanning this very sector of The Milky Way, we would not find anything remotely useful. Because the critters on this very planet were not sending out anything that might be found 100 years ago. It may be the proverbial needle in a haystack but I believe we need to keep looking. Stephen . |
betreger Send message Joined: 29 Jun 99 Posts: 11362 Credit: 29,581,041 RAC: 66 |
I wonder how useful all the data Seti has collected would be to other scientific projects. That could be a good argument for it's continuance. Methinks S@H will continue but it should evolve. The data from Arecibo is mostly random, better than nothing, the data from GB is targeted, much more likely to have something. It is a big sky out there and the odds of finding the needle in the haystack are very small. I shall crunch on. |
Stephen "Heretic" Send message Joined: 20 Sep 12 Posts: 5557 Credit: 192,787,363 RAC: 628 |
After reading Davids link in BOINC notices, I came to much the same conclusion. Are we just spinning our wheels and wasting time and energy on flogging a dead horse? Perhaps a reason for the recent 'band aids'? . . I have no doubt we should keep on looking. But any such project requires resources and when those are denied it becomes untenable. As I said in another message, what we need is promoters, lobbyists. We need persuasive peoply in the right places to prod the pollies and keep them on side. . . Even if we raised $1,000,000 and kept the servers and core technology centre of SETI running, without the telescopes to provide the data for analysis it wouldn't be doing much. As an Aussie I have been waiting eagerly for Parkes to come online in Breakthrought listen. But even patrons of the ilk of Stephen Hawking can only manage to do just so much. Stephen . |
Stephen "Heretic" Send message Joined: 20 Sep 12 Posts: 5557 Credit: 192,787,363 RAC: 628 |
An article yesterday on Wired.com, “Breakthrough Listen†SETI Project Could Miss ET’s Phone Call, points up what is perhaps the most significant shortcoming of Seti@homes's current approach to the ET search. Namely, the initial extremely slow processing of telescope data by the Seti@home community, followed by the, so far, non-existent post-processing of the results we return. Even if Nebula gets up and running, the chances of re-observing any candidate signals that it might finally get around to identifying are almost nil, I would think. . . This is of concern of course, but who has the infrastructure to circumvent the existing delays. The BOINC community probably is one of the most powerful computing networks in the world when you consider the many volunteers and the level of computing power they collectively bring to SETI, but to bring that all into the time frames you say we need to achieve we would need to expand the community many times over and we will all need to upgrade our hardware quite significantly. So if you have any magic tricks you can suggest that will achieve those results with the existing resources, please, please tell us now :) Stephen . |
Stephen "Heretic" Send message Joined: 20 Sep 12 Posts: 5557 Credit: 192,787,363 RAC: 628 |
This computer would work better as a doorstop. . . And maybe a very poor one of those. Stephen . |
Stephen "Heretic" Send message Joined: 20 Sep 12 Posts: 5557 Credit: 192,787,363 RAC: 628 |
I wonder how useful all the data Seti has collected would be to other scientific projects. That could be a good argument for it's continuance. . . I am unconvinced that the targeting employed by Greenback makes their data that much more important. If you are in the forest seeking Snarks and are pointing your camera at a particular series of trees, how can you feel confident they are the right series of trees when you are not at all sure of what a Snark looks like or its general behaviours. Sometimes twirling around snapping like crazy yields the better result :) Stephen . |
kittyman Send message Joined: 9 Jul 00 Posts: 51468 Credit: 1,018,363,574 RAC: 1,004 |
You have doubts about the data we are now processing? Then leave. I have spent a good portion of my life on this project. 8 or 9 computers running 24/7 on it now. And if you thought that for one instant I question the scientific validity of what we are doing here..................... Sure, we are not going after such scientifically identifiable things such as pulsars. That is a fine quest in itself. But, we are looking for something even more elusive. And, we shall find it. "Freedom is just Chaos, with better lighting." Alan Dean Foster |
JaundicedEye Send message Joined: 14 Mar 12 Posts: 5375 Credit: 30,870,693 RAC: 1 |
It's not just a question of looking in the right place but also in the right time. As many have pointed out we might be a million years too early or a thousand years too late. "Sour Grapes make a bitter Whine." <(0)> |
kittyman Send message Joined: 9 Jul 00 Posts: 51468 Credit: 1,018,363,574 RAC: 1,004 |
It's not just a question of looking in the right place but also in the right time. As many have pointed out we might be a million years too early or a thousand years too late. That could be the fact. We COULD be looking in the wrong place, or in the wrong direction. That is surely possible. But if we did not even bother to look, then we could be called ignorant. "Freedom is just Chaos, with better lighting." Alan Dean Foster |
Jeff Buck Send message Joined: 11 Feb 00 Posts: 1441 Credit: 148,764,870 RAC: 0 |
An article yesterday on Wired.com, “Breakthrough Listen†SETI Project Could Miss ET’s Phone Call, points up what is perhaps the most significant shortcoming of Seti@homes's current approach to the ET search. Namely, the initial extremely slow processing of telescope data by the Seti@home community, followed by the, so far, non-existent post-processing of the results we return. Even if Nebula gets up and running, the chances of re-observing any candidate signals that it might finally get around to identifying are almost nil, I would think. Well, if you read that article, you'll see that attempts are already being made, or at least are being thought about, to cut into that lag. Unfortunately, I don't know that any of them are applicable to the Seti@home project. And no, I certainly don't have any magic tricks, but I'll keep plugging away here since it's the only place I can actually make a personal contribution to the search. (Hopefully, that contribution just went up a small notch about an hour ago when I finally finished upgrading one of my crunchers from dual quad-core to dual hexa-core.) |
Cosmic_Ocean Send message Joined: 23 Dec 00 Posts: 3027 Credit: 13,516,867 RAC: 13 |
... it is not a case of Arecibo "quitting', more a matter of philistines in government pulling the plug. But it bothers me that DA has to submit a "final report" on Seti. It seems like there are those wishing to end it. ... Here's an idea to posit... [tinfoil] What if it appears the plug is being pulled because there is knowledge of something and a lid needs to be put on it to keep it from spreading? [second layer of tinfoil] What if scientific research is getting too close to finding something out that a very small few know about and don't want anyone else to find? Sort of like the Architect in the Matrix trilogy, and scientific research is getting a little too close to finding out the truth. [/second layer] [/tinfoil] Being more practical, it certainly doesn't seem that absurd that the government is wanting a final report on this. Didn't it start with some grants and government backing back in '99? I know the grant money ran out long ago, but there comes a point when a government-funded/backed/sponsored research project has to produce some kind of result, regardless of the outcome of the result. Much like Mark said, where we could entirely be looking in the wrong direction and at the wrong point in time.. but not looking at all is worse than not finding what you were hoping to see. Same thing goes for the result of a project, especially a scientific one, where failure IS a data point. If there truly isn't anything notable in the database, at least we know that where we looked, when we looked there, with the method in which we looked.. there wasn't anything to be found, so then you begin the process of trying to decide "did we look in the wrong place?" or "did we look at the wrong time?" or "is our detection method the proper one?" Or maybe, since we haven't been able to go through the database with a fine-toothed comb, there's dozens to hundreds of very interesting things that have so far gone unnoticed by the other projects and can be easily re-observed at any time, rather than only existing in a small five-second window 12 years ago. It's all very.. Schrödinger's Cat. Linux laptop: record uptime: 1511d 20h 19m (ended due to the power brick giving-up) |
Stephen "Heretic" Send message Joined: 20 Sep 12 Posts: 5557 Credit: 192,787,363 RAC: 628 |
. . Hi Jeff, . . And that's the way these sort of things work, a little bit here and a little bit there. But I have a sense than many contributors are moving on, though that may be incorrect, and a lot of what we volunteers do is just taking up some of that slack. But bit by bit maybe we are crawling ahead. . . I might take another look at that articale and take the time to read it more carefully. Stephen . |
HAL9000 Send message Joined: 11 Sep 99 Posts: 6534 Credit: 196,805,888 RAC: 57 |
It looks like the mending to Carolyn seems to be holding up. Let's hope we don't get any other issues for he rest of the year. SETI@home classic workunits: 93,865 CPU time: 863,447 hours Join the [url=http://tinyurl.com/8y46zvu]BP6/VP6 User Group[ |
kittyman Send message Joined: 9 Jul 00 Posts: 51468 Credit: 1,018,363,574 RAC: 1,004 |
It looks like the mending to Carolyn seems to be holding up. Let's hope we don't get any other issues for he rest of the year. The year is almost over. In 2017, this is going to be a whole different project. Not the same Seti we know now. And that shall be a good, perhaps challenging thing. I am ready for it. I welcome it. Are YOU ready for it??? "Freedom is just Chaos, with better lighting." Alan Dean Foster |
betreger Send message Joined: 29 Jun 99 Posts: 11362 Credit: 29,581,041 RAC: 66 |
It looks like the mending to Carolyn seems to be holding up. Let's hope we don't get any other issues for he rest of the year. Well she's been up for almost 2 days, that is truly progress. |
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