Losing hope...

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Profile BaldBear

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Message 1648550 - Posted: 2 Mar 2015, 19:49:08 UTC

I have been running Seti@Home since 1999 and back then I was sure that a signal would be detected during my lifetime. Now that it is 2015 I am not so sure. The optimism of youth is slowly fading. I will continue to run Seti@Home as long as there is a spark of hope.
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Message 1648602 - Posted: 2 Mar 2015, 22:42:22 UTC - in response to Message 1648550.  

Welcome BaldBear to the SETI@home Forums!

I don't think there is anyone out there, but it's just me.
Like you said, there is a spark of hope. :)
ET Phone Home
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Message 1648607 - Posted: 2 Mar 2015, 22:53:05 UTC

I'm beginning to have my doubts too, but I'll continue with this, until all hope is gone.
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Message 1648618 - Posted: 2 Mar 2015, 23:35:42 UTC

I too have been running the Seti@home software for a very long time. After such a long time it gets harder to believe this venture will ever meet with success but I believe it is best to leave no stone unturned in the search for ET and I will continue to donate my computer's time to crunch data as long as this site is active. Fifteen years in the great big scheme of things isn't really very long at all.
Bob DeWoody

My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events.
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Message 1648669 - Posted: 3 Mar 2015, 3:51:15 UTC

This is a search that may well take thousands of years, or a few hours, if it is ever successful. We are a part of that search. Finding a needle in a haystack is simple. Finding evidence of ET is a true challenge.

Odds will increase when Green Bank data is analyzed, as the source is targeted planetary systems. The data from Arecibo is what other scientists have collected with their own experiments, and we just piggyback that data. We are limited to about 100 light years for multibeam data, and about 50,000 light years for Astropulse, but either way, with only some adjustment, we are tied to a stripe of data as the earth rotates, both on its axis, and around the sun. If a signal comes a few seconds before or after Arecibo can detect it, then we would miss it completely.

Targeted data gives much better odds, but even those are very small. The only thing that is for certain, is that if we don't search, our chances are zero.

Steve
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Message 1648676 - Posted: 3 Mar 2015, 4:17:50 UTC - in response to Message 1648669.  

Targeted data gives much better odds, but even those are very small. The only thing that is for certain, is that if we don't search, our chances are zero.

If we are looking at target A, when the data from target B passes by, we also miss it. Obviously we can't build enough Greenbank or Arecibo dishes to cover the entire sky 24/7. We depend on ET having a METI project sending data in our direction for several years so we will happen to look in the right direction at the right time.

IIRC Eric has said he thinks there is an about 1% chance on any given year of finding a signal. Don't make the mistake of saying, if we look for 100 years, we will have found a signal. Even after 1000 years of searching the chance for year 1001 is still just 1%.

Personally I think that 1% estimate may be high by an order of magnitude. But it is still worth looking. This despite us finding planets nearly everywhere we look. The term in the Drake equation I more worry about is the length the civilization stays able to message. Right now we face global warming, if ET is at all like us, he will have had to deal with this.
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Message 1648780 - Posted: 3 Mar 2015, 10:36:58 UTC - in response to Message 1648550.  

I have been running Seti@Home since 1999 and back then I was sure that a signal would be detected during my lifetime. Now that it is 2015 I am not so sure. The optimism of youth is slowly fading. I will continue to run Seti@Home as long as there is a spark of hope.


I believe the WOW signal was real. We do have Universal neighbours and it will only be a matter of time before we will find a signal that can also be confirmed as an alien one, one without governments blowing it away with their lies and deceptions as they did in the past, so help us God.
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Message 1648917 - Posted: 4 Mar 2015, 0:11:01 UTC - in response to Message 1648780.  

The questions I have about how thorough the scanning of the sky is would probably require me to get a degree in astrophysics to understand the answers to...
The biggest one is how do you accurately scan in a grid pattern from a ball that's constantly moving and spinning around a sun that's moving, in a universe that's moving and all the targets are moving? Then add in the great distances, so the object you're looking at isn't even there anymore and you can't see what is currently occupying the space.... Is there even a way to truly and accurately scan every inch of the sky in every direction without all the movement throwing things off?
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Message 1648946 - Posted: 4 Mar 2015, 2:26:25 UTC - in response to Message 1648917.  

The questions I have about how thorough the scanning of the sky is would probably require me to get a degree in astrophysics to understand the answers to...
The biggest one is how do you accurately scan in a grid pattern from a ball that's constantly moving and spinning around a sun that's moving, in a universe that's moving and all the targets are moving? Then add in the great distances, so the object you're looking at isn't even there anymore and you can't see what is currently occupying the space.... Is there even a way to truly and accurately scan every inch of the sky in every direction without all the movement throwing things off?

One word, computers. With great algorithms.
Bob DeWoody

My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events.
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Message 1649126 - Posted: 4 Mar 2015, 14:21:41 UTC - in response to Message 1648917.  

Is there even a way to truly and accurately scan every inch of the sky in every direction without all the movement throwing things off?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ephemeris
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Message 1649228 - Posted: 4 Mar 2015, 19:07:32 UTC - in response to Message 1649126.  
Last modified: 4 Mar 2015, 19:10:01 UTC

Every SECTOR of the sky could be scanned. That's not the problem--the problem is to rapidly eliminate random noise and known emissions from each and every recorded scan and then to analyze those that remain for intelligent content.

I honestly have no idea how well all of the SETI efforts are doing this and which ones would miss or discard a single WOW signal entirely since it is not persistent.
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Message 1649286 - Posted: 4 Mar 2015, 20:48:23 UTC - in response to Message 1649228.  

Every SECTOR of the sky could be scanned. That's not the problem--the problem is to rapidly eliminate random noise and known emissions from each and every recorded scan and then to analyze those that remain for intelligent content.

I honestly have no idea how well all of the SETI efforts are doing this and which ones would miss or discard a single WOW signal entirely since it is not persistent.


Don't lose hope my friend, the Arecibo telescope is a very powerful one, even with its limited range. Wished we still had the Allen Array..
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Message 1649491 - Posted: 5 Mar 2015, 8:26:36 UTC - in response to Message 1649286.  

Paul Allen, with his mega yacht, is searching for sunk Japanese battleships and has just found one, sunk in the battle of the Leyte Gulf by American planes.
Tullio
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Message 1649645 - Posted: 5 Mar 2015, 18:51:11 UTC

None of us are expecting to really find anything. Bur if we don't look we will never find. So we continue on

To go boldly where man has not looked before.
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Message 1649652 - Posted: 5 Mar 2015, 19:02:30 UTC
Last modified: 5 Mar 2015, 19:04:16 UTC

Here's your hope!

http://liquiddb.net/openshare/theWow!SignalProject/passiton/bell(wowsignal)world-peace.wav

copyright liquiddb. (haven't had the permission to share the link)
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Message 1652842 - Posted: 14 Mar 2015, 12:58:27 UTC

I'm absolutly positive there's somebody out there. I'm not sure S@H is the right/best way to find them but it's pretty much the only project in which I can actively participate. So I keep trying.
And just imagine how damn great it would be if we would really find something :-) That could be the start of a complete new era for mankind and we all could be a part of that. Well, it could also be the end of mankind but that's another story ;-)
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Message 1652868 - Posted: 14 Mar 2015, 15:21:43 UTC

Something people may not understand. The amount of power required to send the signal is so great that the transmitter has to be directional to cover the distance involved. Our receiver antenna is also very directional in order to improve the gain. To receive a signal, both antennas must be pointing at each other.This makes it a waiting game for the moment that everything lines up and that could be this year or 100 years from now.
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Message 1652921 - Posted: 14 Mar 2015, 18:06:31 UTC

I too am sure there are other intelligent civilizations in our galaxy. But I'm not sure they want to contact us. Based on the behavior of the more advanced civilizations here on earth toward other less advanced peoples I think we are nowhere near ready to meet our neighbors.
Bob DeWoody

My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events.
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Message 1653598 - Posted: 16 Mar 2015, 17:48:26 UTC - in response to Message 1652921.  
Last modified: 16 Mar 2015, 17:48:59 UTC

I too am sure there are other intelligent civilizations in our galaxy. But I'm not sure they want to contact us. Based on the behavior of the more advanced civilizations here on earth toward other less advanced peoples I think we are nowhere near ready to meet our neighbors.


+1 Look at all the religion based wars going on, just awful:(
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Message 1653702 - Posted: 16 Mar 2015, 22:40:08 UTC - in response to Message 1653598.  

I too am sure there are other intelligent civilizations in our galaxy. But I'm not sure they want to contact us. Based on the behavior of the more advanced civilizations here on earth toward other less advanced peoples I think we are nowhere near ready to meet our neighbors.


+1 Look at all the religion based wars going on, just awful:(

As many as 400 million people have been killed with just Christianity over the last 2000 years. I have no idea about the other religions.

Steve
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Message boards : SETI@home Science : Losing hope...


 
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