Just a little warning we have had a very short but bad cyclone season in our part of the world .

In 2 months we have had 2 cat 5 severe cyclones one hit Rockhamton in Queensland but although it was a severe cyclone it was small and luckily did not do much damage .

The other called Pam has just flattened Vanuatu and there are reports of many dead and whole towns wiped out Australia and New Zealand are sending help but communications are still bad so the real effects are still not fully known .

There has also been 4 other cyclones during this time that have or are about to hit Australia's west cost and East cost .

So if you live anywhere near the Gulf of Mexico you might wish to start prepearing for a very bad cyclone season .

And just as a point of info

From 1900-1960 there was only aprox 4 Cat 5 cyclones world wide but since 1960 aprox , we have had more frequent Cat 5 cyclones and they have been getting bigger .

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Florida hasn't been 'Hit' in years.

Yes Clyde the same here the last 2 years it's been fairly quiet , but this year maybe the start of a few very bad years so keep a eye out there and be ready . You can't be to safe with cyclones

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Load Up on Smoke and Booze. Tiny Tiny Tiny Cyclone Comin'

Lookeee, I Seez A Cyclone, Headin' Your Way. Thank Goodness I'm Stocked wif plenty of Tasty O2 CO2 and CH 4.

HOHUM. Somebody Beatin' Dat, Run fO YOur Life DRum DRum Again.

Yep

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May we All have a METAMORPHOSIS. REASON. GOoD JUDGEMENT and LOVE and ORDER!!!!!

Gooba this one was a Tiny Tiny TIny cyclone that came within 150 klm of the Queensland coast but turn back out to the coral sea and has now intensified and grown I just hope it does not head back s/w and hit Brisbane

http://www.bom.gov.au/?ref=hdr

it's the last of the 3 that started forming about a week ago , all at the same time .

The same thing happened last month not 1 cyclone but up to 3 -4 across the equator spaning about 6,000 klm . So I hope for you guys sack you don't , as there are more places with a hell of a lot more people than we have here and probably more damage and deaths

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Oh Sorry mate I forgot you call them Hurricane's , Japan call's them Typhoons we use cyclone but the scale is still the same so Hurricane at Cat 5 is the same as a cyclone at Cat 5 or Typhoon at Cat 5

But thanks I'm a bit to far south for it to effect me but up north mmmm

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... Hurricane's , Japan call's them Typhoons we use cyclone but the scale is still the same so Hurricane at Cat 5 is the same as a cyclone at Cat 5 or Typhoon at Cat 5...

And all are fueled by temperature differences, latent heat of vaporization, and the Earth's rotation.


Which is where the man-made global warming comes into to play to ever greater effect... We industrially pollute our atmosphere to capture slightly more of the sun's heat, and that gets converted into ever more forceful storms...

Global Warming is not that we enjoy slightly warmer temperatures. Our weather systems convert the extra heat energy into greater extremes of weather. Hence for example "cold vortexes" get pulled down from the Arctic as "hot vortexes" push the weather systems from the equator. All of our atmosphere is connected to be affected, worldwide...


We are long past the denial of what is happening and how we are causing that. The denial now is more for how quickly we turn around our industrial ship of pollution...


All on our only one planet,
Martin

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See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

Another part of the Fossil Fuels Denial that will be the next big pollution problem Worldwide:


Mercury pollution threat to Arctic bird

Mercury pollution has risen nearly 50-fold in the feathers of a breed of Arctic bird over the past 130 years...

... Mercury levels are going up in other Arctic birds, fish and mammals, due to atmospheric pollution...

... Mercury in the atmosphere comes from natural sources such as volcanoes, as well as human activities like coal burning. Air currents can transport mercury to the Arctic from mid-latitudes in just a few days.

"A reduction in atmospheric mercury would be key - this is probably where much of it is coming from - and that would come by burning less coal,"...

... There is concern about mercury pollution in the ivory gull in particular, but also in other species high on the food chain, where greater concentrations of mercury accumulate in animals' bodies. Mercury levels are rising in fish such as the burbot, the ringed seal and the beluga whale.

The Minamata Convention on Mercury is a global treaty to protect human health and the environment from the adverse effects of mercury...



Note that "higher up the food chain" includes us.

All on our only one planet,
Martin

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See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

Which is where the man-made global warming comes into to play to ever greater effect...

Ah, another weather is global warming post, how slimy.

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Warming is great.

Yes. You don't have to use so much energy to heat houses. Less CO2 emissions.
Here the spring now starts one month earlier than it did 30 years ago:)

On the other hand the countries near Capricorn and Cancer will suffer a lot.
There will be big migrations in a couple of decades if we don't do anything!

On the other hand the countries near Capricorn and Cancer will suffer a lot.

I presume you meant the two Tropics and not the constellations or astrology .... Care to name the counties involved?

The tropic is the latitude north and south of the equator where the sun has its northernmost and southernmost zenith position. The area is about 40% of the Earth's surface. In this area, the sun can stand at the zenith (straight up).
1. North Tropic (Tropic of Cancer, approx latitude 23.5 ° N)
2. South Tropic (Tropic of Capricorn, latitude approx 23.5 ° S)
The tropics are connected to the Earth's axis tilt into the path around the sun.

You could easily find the countries affected by your self by just look in a map:)

SCREAM 'IT', SCREAM 'IT' Real GOoD. Like Da OneAndOnly Industrial Scale of Alarmist 'Facts' Thread Polluter. D DD D DD DDDDD DDDD D DENY 'it' Real GOoD. D D D D DDDD DENY 'it' Real GOoD. SCREAMING 'It' and Waitin' On Dat Tiny Tiny Tiny Cyclone to, give me, What Might be Called, 'Natures' 'Plastic' 'Surgery'. I'll Beez Lookin' Fine and Dandy Then. DDDD.

Scream 'it' and DENY 'it' Real GOoD.

Yep

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May we All have a METAMORPHOSIS. REASON. GOoD JUDGEMENT and LOVE and ORDER!!!!!

Florida has not been 'hit' by a Hurricane, since 2005. Almost ten years (Hurricane Season starts June 1).

no not your state but around you is a different story , only a matter of time them WHAM a Severe Cat 5 bigger than Katrina will slam into your area and the longer in between Hurricanes the worse it will probably be .

But no worry's mate ! you don't think GW will effect you .

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Just a little warning we have had a very short but bad cyclone season in our part of the world .

In 2 months we have had 2 cat 5 severe cyclones one hit Rockhamton in Queensland but although it was a severe cyclone it was small and luckily did not do much damage .

The other called Pam has just flattened Vanuatu and there are reports of many dead and whole towns wiped out Australia and New Zealand are sending help but communications are still bad so the real effects are still not fully known .

There has also been 4 other cyclones during this time that have or are about to hit Australia's west cost and East cost .

So if you live anywhere near the Gulf of Mexico you might wish to start prepearing for a very bad cyclone season .

And just as a point of info

From 1900-1960 there was only aprox 4 Cat 5 cyclones world wide but since 1960 aprox , we have had more frequent Cat 5 cyclones and they have been getting bigger .

Hi Glenn,

Ok, let us look at things 'windy' (so to speak). I do not know much about the Pacific basin cyclones/typhoons, but let us consider the Atlantic basin Hurricanes (same thing, different name and part of the world). I know a bit more about those.

The 'Cat ?' number from the Saffir-Simpson scale does not really tell the entire story. Hurricane/Cyclone/Typhoon strength depends on more things than just wind speed. So, how DO you rate these storms by 'strength'?

By 'death toll'? Ehh, no. We get a LOT more notice about these storms nowadays than we used to. Weather satellites, etc. Gives us time to evacuate people from threatened areas (hopefully). Plus many (though sadly not anywhere all) buildings in the so-called 'Hurricane alley' are built stronger to be able to survive more. Death tolls have dropped in more modern times. Have the hurricanes therefore weakened? Nope.

By 'property damage'? Ehh, no. As population has grown, and people's tastes changed, more and more people are deciding to live in 'Hurricane alley'. There is only so much coastal real estate. By supply and demand, property values have risen in these areas at a rate much faster than inflation. Therefore it would appear that hurricanes have gotten stronger. Have they? Nope. This is the inverse situation of the 'death toll' metric.

I have already stated that wind speed is not a good metric. Neither is size of the storm. A large, but weak, is going to be weaker than a much smaller but stronger hurricane. So what all does this leave to measure to rate hurricane strength?

Simple. One number measures hurricane (and also cyclone/typhoon) strength. Barometric pressure. Let us look at the top 5 most intense (ranked by pressure) hurricanes to hit the 'lower 48' continental USA since record-keeping began.

#1 Labor Day Hurricane (1935) - Florida Keys.
Wind Speed: 185 mph (295 km/h).
Pressure at landfall: 892 millibars.
Storm surge: 20 Feet (6 m).

#2 Hurricane Camille (1969) - Mississippi Gulf Coast.
Wind Speed: highest measured: 175 mph (280 km/h) - Cat 5.
official estimated: 190 mph (310 km/h) - Cat 5.
True maximum will never be known. All wind speed measuring devices in the area broke at
their maximum reading of 220 mph (354 km/h) from the wind gusts.
Pressure at landfall: 900 millibars
Storm surge: 24 feet (7.3 m)

#3 Hurricane Katrina (2005) - 2nd landfall near New Orleans, Louisiana.
Wind speed: 125 mph (200 km/h) - Cat 3
Pressure at landfall: 920 millibars.
Storm surge: 27.8 feet (8.47 m)

#4 Hurricane Andrew (1992) - Florida
Wind speed: Initially measured 146 mph (235 km/h) - Cat 4.
Further investigation revealed it was 177 mph (285 km/h) - Cat 5.
Pressure at landfall: 922 millibars
Storm surge: 16.9 feet (5.2 m) in one spot. 4 to 6 feet (1.2m to 1.8m) typical.

#5 Indianola, Texas (1886)
Wind speed: 150mph (240 km/h) - Cat 4
Pressure at landfall: 925 millibars
Storm Surge: 15 feet (4.57 m).

Wind speed is measured (except where noted) as the highest sustained (over a period of 1 minute or longer) wind speed in the storm at landfall.

Hmm... Interesting. Let us take a briefer look at the next 5 and round out the 'Top 10'.

#6 "Florida Keys" 1919 927 millibars

#7 "Okeechobee" 1928 929 millibars

#8 (tie) "Great Miami" 1926 930 millibars

#8 (tie) Donna...........1960 930 millibars

#10 Carla...........1961 931 millibars

Hmm.

So, as you can see, of the top 10 most intense hurricanes to ever hit the 'lower 48' Continental USA during 'modern' record-keeping, HALF were in a period BEFORE 1960, and HALF were 1960 to the present.

There may be something to your statement that hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons have become more frequent and more intense since 1960, but then again, maybe not.

To many, likely most all, people it certainly *seems* like there are more hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons that are more intense than there used to be, but is that *really* the case? I don't know.

How much of it is that there really (if it is the case) more frequent, more intense hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons than there used to be? And, how much of it is that we just 'know about' more of them?

Remember, the 'hurricane hunter' flights are a cooperation between military air-crews and aircraft and the civilian science community didn't start until late in WWII. These flights tell us more about conditions in the hurricanes we know about.

Also, weather satellites didn't exist until about 1960 (TIROS-1). These satellites allow us to see these storms pretty much worldwide now, in ever-increasing detail.

Combine this with a 'if it bleeds, it leads! Gimmie a body count! Oh the humanity!' ratings game playing news media beaming live-as-it-happens video onto our TVs. How many people watch that schizz because they are interested in weather/climate, and how many watch that schizz because they secretly, in their heart-of-hearts want to see that danged-fool reporter that just HAS to stand outside IN the hurricane get severely injured or rendered dead by a lightning strike or flying debris or some such? It ranks up there with watching live combat footage on the news while taking bets on whether or not that danged-fool reporter is gonna get his head blown off or get his helicopter shot down.

Forgive me but I am not really interested in seeing all that live hurricane coverage. I KNOW what hurricanes are like, first-hand. Remember #2 on the above list? Camille (1969)? The most intense hurricane to actually hit the US mainland (as opposed to a few islands off the Florida coast -- #1)? I was THERE (Gulfport, MS) when it hit. I survived. Some of the other kids I knew and had played with on that extended vacation to the Mississippi Gulf coast were not so lucky. The experience emotionally scarred me for life. About the only force of Nature that I absolutely FEAR to this day are Hurricanes. It is why I have lived at least 350 miles (563 km) inland from the coast almost my entire adult life, and when friends or family suggest a vacation on the coast during hurricane season, I flip 'em off and tell them 'screw you!'.

So, is GHG/ACC causing more frequent, more intense hurricanes? Maybe, maybe not. Gonna have to collect a LOT more data on ALL hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons world wide over a LOT longer period of time (to even out the effects of natural climatic cyclic variations) and compare it with CO2 (and other GHG) concentrations in the air over this time period, the temperature anomally, as well as all other influences on the climate. With enough data (likely another several centuries worth). Until then, any given hurricane/cyclone/typhoon is just an instance of bad weather. And as is said regularly around here, an instance of bad weather does not a climate change demonstrate.

And as is said regularly around here, an instance of bad weather does not a climate change demonstrate.

Instances of bad weather happens more often today than 30 years ago and before.
As Glenn says.

From 1900-1960 there was only aprox 4 Cat 5 cyclones world wide but since 1960 aprox , we have had more frequent Cat 5 cyclones and they have been getting bigger .

The British Isles and Scandinavia have the same trend.
Many other parts of the world as well.

Climate change or sudden bad weather...
Explain your theory/hypothesis to what is happening.

TopHat Said:

Climate change or sudden bad weather...
Explain your theory/hypothesis to what is happening.

Kong, below Your Post, Did Explain. Clearly. Succinctly. A Caveman Could Understand.

HuWoMan Made Climate Change-DENIED.

HuWoMan MADE UP BULLSHAT by Agenda Pushers for 'Green' Super Useless Technologies, to Suck Trillion$$$ of Dollars and Get Millions of Votes-YEP.

Yep

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May we All have a METAMORPHOSIS. REASON. GOoD JUDGEMENT and LOVE and ORDER!!!!!

And as is said regularly around here, an instance of bad weather does not a climate change demonstrate.

Instances of bad weather happens more often today than 30 years ago and before.
As Glenn says.

From 1900-1960 there was only aprox 4 Cat 5 cyclones world wide but since 1960 aprox , we have had more frequent Cat 5 cyclones and they have been getting bigger .

The British Isles and Scandinavia have the same trend.
Many other parts of the world as well.

Climate change or sudden bad weather...
Explain your theory/hypothesis to what is happening.

I already explained my view in that post. I did not dispute what Glenn said. There is a possibility that he is correct. However, there is another explanation of what seems to be happening. As I said:

How much of it is that there really (if it is the case) more frequent, more intense hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons than there used to be? And, how much of it is that we just 'know about' more of them?

Invention of and advances in weather satellites and 'hurricane hunter' flights, combined with the ever present mass media certainly makes it SEEM like there is more, even if it turns out not to be the case. We just know about more of them post-1960 than we used to.

It certainly IS a possibility that GHG-ACC is causing more frequent more severe hurricanes. It certainly is. It certainly SEEMS that it is.

But, how much of this apparent increase in number and severity of hurricanes is due to we just knowing about more of them, how much is due to natural variability, and how much is due to GHG-ACC? That is the (to use an archaic phrase) US$64,000.00 question. To answer it, we need a LOT more data collected over a much longer period of time than has elapsed since 1960. To give a definitive answer to that question now is, I'm sorry, just so much opinionated hand-waving.

Sorry, but you can't go around stating stuff as FACT if it hasn't been PROVEN yet. And even the IPCC uses weasel-words in their statements such as 'likely', 'very likely', and 'highly likely'. That is, the IPCC doesn't state GCC-ACC is a FACT, just that we think that there is a strong possibility that it is.

Warming is great.

Yes. You don't have to use so much energy to heat houses. Less CO2 emissions.
Here the spring now starts one month earlier than it did 30 years ago:)

On the other hand the countries near Capricorn and Cancer will suffer a lot.
There will be big migrations in a couple of decades if we don't do anything!

What do you propose doing, stopping the migrations or stopping the fictional 'Human caused climate change'? As has been discussed, 3 or 4 volcanic eruptions negate all the greenhouse emissions mitigation ever done. AND where are the migrants going to go? The answer is obvious, up. Higher ground, dry land, unflooded real estate.

A former Colorado Governor (Dick Lamb), proposed(tounge in cheek) in the 1970's that our state should consider building a 'Big Fence' around us to prevent an influx.......he was probably correct.

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"Sour Grapes make a bitter Whine." <(0)>

Sorry, but you can't go around stating stuff as FACT if it hasn't been PROVEN yet. And even the IPCC uses weasel-words in their statements such as 'likely', 'very likely', and 'highly likely'. That is, the IPCC doesn't state GCC-ACC is a FACT, just that we think that there is a strong possibility that it is.

I think you told us that predictions are not proven yet.
Of course not. The climate predictions are not like Newtons laws of mass in motion.
There are lot of uncertainties in the climate MODEL.
One cannot make a mathematical model from a chaotic system.
All we can say is 'likely', 'very likely', and 'highly likely'.
Deniers say this 'unlikely', 'very unlikely', and 'highly unlikely'.
Pick your choiche.

Yes. You don't have to use so much energy to heat houses. Less CO2 emissions.
Here the spring now starts one month earlier than it did 30 years ago:)
On the other hand the countries near Capricorn and Cancer will suffer a lot.
There will be big migrations in a couple of decades if we don't do anything!

What do you propose doing, stopping the migrations or stopping the fictional 'Human caused climate change'? As has been discussed, 3 or 4 volcanic eruptions negate all the greenhouse emissions mitigation ever done. AND where are the migrants going to go? The answer is obvious, up. Higher ground, dry land, unflooded real estate.
A former Colorado Governor (Dick Lamb), proposed(tounge in cheek) in the 1970's that our state should consider building a 'Big Fence' around us to prevent an influx.......he was probably correct.

How do you stop mass migrations?
In history we all humans on this planet migrated from Africa not that long ago.
And Dick Lamb seems to be quite right. Ever Heard of Fortress Europe?
The Mexican border is not by far so protected than Europe's borders.

AND where are the migrants going to go? The answer is obvious, up. Higher ground, dry land, unflooded real estate

Yes To Europe and the continent America and perhaps Asia and Austrialia.

Clyde please remember that the trade routes in the Indian ocean and the Central America's have been around for a lot longer than satelites so we can get a fair idea from weather reports made on these ships and both areas are where the Cyclones/Hurricanes /Typhoons form , there is also weather reports from china and Asian and India that go back century's so there is data if you look .

The reason I have mentioned that you could be looking at a period of bad Cyclones is because of the weather patterns that formed that has caused them .

You normally get 1 or 2 that form within a week or 2 of each other . However this is not what I have seen this year . It's like the whole Area along the Equator just suddenly erupts and we have seen up to 5 form at once with the smallest being absorbed by the stronger ones which them self's have got stronger and bigger and ended up with at least 3 that are at least a cat 3 . The one that is still left hit Queensland as a cat 4 but has died down now and was smaller than the one that has Flatten'd Vanuatu . So I hope the Bloody French get of there bums and start helping there former colony and don't leave all the heavy lifting to us and the New Zealanders .

As for GW well the one off as some call them now , events are no longer 1 off events but more the norm now so it's a bit mute to say it's not GW that causes these things I think we all know it is .

So if I was you guys get ready for a few years of really bad weather and possible Hurricanes .

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