Speaking of pollsters and predictions.
Enok Sarri became a national celebrity in 1977 when he predicted that the royal couple's first-born would be a prince, and promised to crawl between Kiruna and Nikkaluokta if so would not be the case. When Princess Victoria was born, journalists discovered that the promise was easy to meet. Kiruna's municipal boundary was only a few meters from Sarri's cottage in Nikkaluokta.

I had a dream last night Trump was running for class president at my high school, and I was somehow on his staff, and was supposed to take him somewhere but the car wouldn't start and so we ended up taking a boat to wherever it was he supposed to be. He was pretty nice in my dream, but I doubt that he is in reality. I imagine most of his staff is on pins and needles all the time.

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The mind is a weird and mysterious place

WinterKnight...

This is a 'One Off' election.

There is nothing "One Off" about this election, unless you are telling us Trump is a Democrat.

He might be. The only thing he makes is beds. Service job. Not like most republicans that manufacture, say Carly Fiorina, HP.

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Don't Like and Believe Him a Racist.

Liar and Trusts Her Not.

What Blacks Get from DEM Commies: Impunity to Riot, Loot and Sue. Routine Payouts to Blacks of 1 to 20 Million, without going to Court; Zero Accountability for Looting, Rioting, Criminality, All Sorts of Social Failure, and Bankrupting Cities; In General, the Lower You Go, The More DEM Commies Allow this Fall, while Payin' fO your Vote for This Black Privilege.

What Blacks Get from THE MAN aka GOPTerPukes: Basically what All HuWoMans Expect-A Total Fooking, No Matta Your Race, Creed, etc etc etc. BUT, You Have A Chance to Climb Out of GhettoWorld. Or Make GhettoWorld into Shangrala of Your Choice.

So, Keep Winning Ways with DEM Commies or LOSE All DEM COMMIE Privilege.

Easy PeeeZZZy Choice.

Too Much Labor on Labor Day.

BIG BIG BIG Lovin' Everyone Don fO Prez

What I Get from Yap is Lots O Yappin'

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May we All have a METAMORPHOSIS. REASON. GOoD JUDGEMENT and LOVE and ORDER!!!!!

On CLYDE vs. WinterKnight regarding the polls:

I have to say I'm 90% with CLYDE on this one for almost every single different reason he's brought up so far.

(Of course we all know we're talking about "right now" btw. Anything could happen 'till November as either side could implode buy then. We're making guesses/predictions on what would happen if elections were "tomorrow")

Anyway -with that disclaimer out of the way- I have to say:

Time Magazine's Person of the Year I'm guessing is going to be Donald Trump. Win or lose there's going to be a million stories to tell so I won't be surprised if that's who they go for. But the REAL Person of the Year is:

The Protest Voter

(or anti-establishment voter if you like)

Now WK, I know you think your friend Ned is the bees knees and that if only we would take the time to click on the 538 link we'd all see the light but:

"Ned's dead, baby. Ned's dead."

Yeah, yeah I nerded out on Ned a while back -long before you ever mentioned him- 'cause Krugman was b*tching about something or other. So I checked to see who this Silver guy was... Anyway, yeah he's smart. He's also wrong.

I'm surprised no one's coined a phrase for this flaw yet but it's a classic:
Pretending your formula is axiomatic when it is not.

Sure, you'll be right most of the time but pretending you've got a "closed model" when you don't is always gonna bite you in the a**.

You've quickly forgotten some of the smartest people on the planet are in the City of London. They tanked your economy but for some weird reason you're blaming it on your uneducated countrymen. You'd be right if the yokels voted to Exit, The City bet on Exit and the economy STILL tanked. But hardly anyone (in that game) thinks the shock would have been anywhere near what it was.

The City got it arrogantly wrong and so'll your mate Silver.

You've got this the wrong way 'round. It's not CLYDE that's missing pieces of information which you - incorrectly - feel the need to fill in. He's actually factoring in more variables than you are. And he is very, very right to do so.

My best guess ATM is Trump is going to do 6% better than whatever he's polling at. Meaning whatever polls you see (even Ned's), subtract 3% from Hillary and add 3% to Trump.

Hmmm, actually the guy's called "Nate", not "Ned".

Oooops :)

@Alex, there is a factor of Clyde you may not be considering. If Clyde is in person as he is on these boards, all those people telling him they are closet Trump supporters may simply be telling him that to shut him up.

http://www.chakoteya.net/StarTrek/39.htm

SPOCK: It was far easier for you as civilized men to behave like barbarians, than it was for them as barbarians to behave like civilized men.

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Wonder what this means to Trump?
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_AP_POLL_YOUNG_AMERICANS_BLACK_LIVES_MATTER?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-09-05-15-19-30

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Support for the Black Lives Matter movement has increased among young white adults, according to a poll that suggests a majority of white, black, Asian and Hispanic young adults now support the movement calling for accountability for police in the deaths of African-Americans.

Fifty-one percent of white adults between the ages of 18 and 30 say in a GenForward poll they now strongly or somewhat support Black Lives Matter, a 10-point increase since June, while 42 percent said they do not support the movement.

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@Alex, there is a factor of Clyde you may not be considering. If Clyde is in person as he is on these boards, all those people telling him they are closet Trump supporters may simply be telling him that to shut him up.

http://www.chakoteya.net/StarTrek/39.htm

SPOCK: It was far easier for you as civilized men to behave like barbarians, than it was for them as barbarians to behave like civilized men.

Gary, I think you may be, at the least, assuming that Clyde is getting his info by informally polling those around him. Perhaps they are telling him this unsolicited. Perhaps they know he finds Donald dangerous. Then again, they ma not be telling him the truth. But they could be.

Like Alex, I have said Nate Silver may not do so well this time. I believe I posted some links breaking down some reasons why.

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Capitalize on this good fortune, one word can bring you round ... changes.

the Orwellian Left Wing

Are you sure about that?

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the Orwellian Left Wing

Are you sure about that?

Kyle Kulinski, progressive (civil liberties libertarian), speaks of the "Regressive Left". Here, he discusses the very recent (within about 1 week) University of Chicago stand on NO safe spaces and NO trigger warnings: University Drops The Hammer On 'Safe Spaces' & 'Trigger Warnings'. (WarningL Kyle curses alot, but worth listening to his argument.)

Similar, without the cursing, is David Pakman: University of Chicago Against Safe Spaces & "Trigger Warnings" .

Clyde has used the term "regressive left" before and when he uses the term "Orwellian left wing thugs" I believe he means the same thing. I believe Kyle and David are in agreement with Clyde on this.

Kyle says "This isn't liberalism" it's "the authoritarian left".

Being on the left is the intersection. Civil liberties vs. authoritarianism is where thy do not intersect.

And Trump is on the authoritarian right that seeks his own safe spaces. How?

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Capitalize on this good fortune, one word can bring you round ... changes.

the Orwellian Left Wing

Are you sure about that?

Kyle Kulinski, progressive (civil liberties libertarian), speaks of the "Regressive Left". Here, he discusses the very recent (within about 1 week) University of Chicago stand on NO safe spaces and NO trigger warnings: University Drops The Hammer On 'Safe Spaces' & 'Trigger Warnings'. (WarningL Kyle curses alot, but worth listening to his argument.)

Similar, without the cursing, is David Pakman: University of Chicago Against Safe Spaces & "Trigger Warnings" .

Clyde has used the term "regressive left" before and when he uses the term "Orwellian left wing thugs" I believe he means the same thing. I believe Kyle and David are in agreement with Clyde on this.

Kyle says "This isn't liberalism" it's "the authoritarian left".

Being on the left is the intersection. Civil liberties vs. authoritarianism is where thy do not intersect.

And Trump is on the authoritarian right that seeks his own safe spaces. How?

Must have really struck a chord with Clyde. (The people I know who move through different classes of people with seeming ease are the ones who I know their friends lie too, or stay silent, to keep the civil peace and they have no clue it happens. That may not be universally true.)

Since the U of Chicago can't be one of those left wing [negative] because they have free speech and no trigger warnings or safe spaces.

Then the ACLU who is very much free speech must be extreme right wing. Before the dixie tea invasion it was a republican position.

Then the extreme right must support Collin Kaepernick when he exercises his first amendment right to not stand during the national anthem. Oh wait, Obama just said okay on this! That does not compute!

But that isn't the message the right wingnutz seek with their screaming about trigger warnings. Unlike a libertarian, Gary Johnson for president, they only support free speech when it agrees with their narrow world view and wish to suppress all other views.

No, they are happy with U Chicago because they see it as the ability to pass off their view, have a right wing speaker at a public forum there. They would be horrified if it was a business class for their precious silver spoon child at Harvard and it meant Keynesian economics or an F!


The painful reality is libertarians are at a right angle to the left-right scale. Something Clyde will not admit because he sees left and right as the same at their extreme wings. That being governmental control or authoritarianism or statism. Anarchists being the far other end of this scale and libertarians being near the center.


Oh as to trigger warnings, don't call it that. Just an honest description of the class in the syllabus. In criminal defense 103 each student will learn to stridently argue for acquittal of the defendant who is a repeat child rapist in a mock trial ... . The entire philosophy department might have a description of how the study is the challenge of thought processes for those tender students who have never been exposed to it in their high school as that would have been too much for their reactionary PTA to allow. Oh and that is what this is about, reactionary PTA's and school boards who have scrubbed k-12 of all controversy and made them happy touchy feely places so the graduate has no reality of the world when they walk out the door (except in the inner city where nothing can scrub away life - but they aren't going to university.)

In a way I feel lucky to have been in a school district that was ordered integrated. Made me aware there was something else out there. And now years later makes me painfully aware of DJT's blatant racism and caste ism.

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Completely new poll from Washington Post, done by Survey Monkey, not their normal in-house pollster, who surveys Virginia only.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/50-state-poll/

A Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll of all 50 states indicates the 2016 campaign could flip several red and blue states from their longtime loyalties. The poll, conducted Aug. 9 through Sept. 1, asked more than 74,000 registered voters who they currently support for president.

Only one comment at the moment, they have Texas as a toss-up.

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Oh as to trigger warnings, don't call it that. Just an honest description of the class in the syllabus.

Shocking isn't it? Trigger warnings are what news radio call the "content warnings" that they issue before a story in which there may be a graphic description liable to upset some listeners. Isn't it reasonable for a teacher to provide some warning that the content of a book under review contains a graphic description of sexual assault so that victims of such an assault can be prepared for it? In the rush to be against all things "politically correct", could it be that situations are being created in which a person is victimized twice?

More on trigger warnings and their real world use can be found here.

Would it be acceptable for TV news to show the beheading of an ISIS hostage at prime time without any warning? Why should we expect that it would be acceptable for this to happen in a classroom? And what, if anything, has this to do with the authoritarian left or right?

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I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that ...

conscientious objector still exists ... back to reality

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Trigger Warning for College (old enough to lead solders in combat) Students?

Just artificially extending their childhood.

Typical Authoritarian (we know better than the childish people) Thinking.

Back to Subject?

Did you even understand what bobby was saying?

So if I bore witness to child abuse as a young child myself and it traumatized me so much so that I need therapy to deal with the emotional distress, then in college I'm told to read a book that contains depictions of child abuse without warning and it sends me over the edge all over again, according to you I don't deserve at least a warning so I can prepare myself and/or recuse myself to avoid the distress all over again? That even a warning means "artificially extending" my childhood; that because I'm old enough to lead solders in combat I have to be emotionally stable enough to read potentially emotionally distressing material?

Since when is being considerate enough to forewarn people considered leftwing authoritarian thinking?

Since when is being considerate enough to forewarn people

The Clyde cares not to be constructive, he would rather be a gadfly.
Possibly he wants to lead the Dull one, who was once a worm in provocative and unproductive statements. IMO he excels in the unproductive.

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Since when is being considerate enough to forewarn people considered leftwing authoritarian thinking?

I believe he thinks it mollycoddling. Just like any form of welfare. Take that to the logical conclusion and having police to keep order is just mollycoddling the weaker people and they should be raped and murdered because they aren't strong enough to defend or care for themselves without help. It is the entire basis of Trump's appeal.

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Well, Drumpf, Clyde & Frillary have certainly given the rest of the world a few chuckles already this year.

Lovely examples of Left, Centre & Right. :-)

Donald Trump (Republican)39.2%
Hillary Clinton (Democrat)39.0%
Other 8.3%
Refused 8.2%

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/smallest/dates/20160710-20160830/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

Trump: 44.7%
Clinton: 42.7%

http://www.latimes.com/politics/

President Trump?

Probably

OK, where's the report from you that Hillary has taken the lead again in the USC Dornsife/LA Times poll.

Clinton 44.5%
Trump 43.4%

http://www.latimes.com/politics/

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