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Sirius B
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Message 1177030 - Posted: 10 Dec 2011, 10:55:22 UTC

Finally, a politician with big brass ones.....
Britian First

Is this really how so-called International Statesmen really act.....
Schoolboy Statesmen

Out of touch leaders........
The people's Verdict

Many may not see it, but we are now on a knife edge....At least one American General sees the same as I do.... "Last night General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he was ‘extraordinarily concerned’ over the potential for civil unrest in Europe"

All the European leaders now have to get their act together & get this resolved ASAP, or it will fester for a long time, but not long enough to prevent the sight of another major European War in my lifetime!

Unforunately, as in the previous 2, it'll be Germany & France again that will probably provide the detonation point......


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Message 1177061 - Posted: 10 Dec 2011, 14:28:34 UTC - in response to Message 1177030.

Finally, a politician with big brass ones.....
Britian First

Is this really how so-called International Statesmen really act.....
Schoolboy Statesmen

Out of touch leaders........
The people's Verdict

Many may not see it, but we are now on a knife edge....At least one American General sees the same as I do.... "Last night General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he was ‘extraordinarily concerned’ over the potential for civil unrest in Europe"

All the European leaders now have to get their act together & get this resolved ASAP, or it will fester for a long time, but not long enough to prevent the sight of another major European War in my lifetime!

Unforunately, as in the previous 2, it'll be Germany & France again that will probably provide the detonation point......



Sadly, I think you have a point... Kinda sorta...

Also, sadly, I doubt it will be limited to Europe. The USA is facing many of the same issues.

That said, I highly doubt we would be looking at 'WWIII'... As you quoted the USA General, 'civil unrest'.

On the one hand, one has the governments who have over-promised a wide range of benefits to their peoples.

On the other hand, you have the harsh economic realities of the situation. A lot of debt has been racked up through deficit spending that must be dealt with, either through huge spending cuts or by inflating your way out of the debt. Cutting spending is NOT going to be popular with the people, and the common Euro currency is going to make the inflation option a lot more difficult for Europe (a disability that the USA does not share in the current mess).

Neither way forward is pain free. Neither way forward is likely to be a permanent fix without a fundamental shift in policy on the part of the governments to avoid the same mess in the future. It will NOT be very popular. The inflation would likely have to continue to keep on wiping out new debt being created, and as time went on any drastic spending cuts would be more and more likely to be reversed.

This is an ugly situation with ugly solutions. The potential for civil unrest is quite high indeed. Anything from larger versions of the Athens riots all the way through the 1789-France-style regime change. It will be interesting to watch on both sides of the Atlantic.


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Message 1177071 - Posted: 10 Dec 2011, 15:04:49 UTC
Last modified: 21 Mar 2014, 1:40:52 UTC

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Message 1177075 - Posted: 10 Dec 2011, 15:18:44 UTC

I personally think that Cameron didn't have a lot of choice but to go this route, given the rising Tory back bench rebellion if he didn't. However it has left a rift in the Coalition government ...

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Message 1177135 - Posted: 10 Dec 2011, 20:13:08 UTC
Last modified: 10 Dec 2011, 20:23:22 UTC

I agree with Chris, Cameron had no choice as the Fiscal unification was not in Britain's interests.

The agreement was supposed to heal the EURO € but has done nothing to sort the indebtedness of southern European countries, nor the basic differences in economic productivity compared to Germany that has developed since the launch of the EURO.

The EURO zone interest rates were too low for the southern European states and they used the opportunity to borrow - that is why the countries have such high Government debts. It also allowed Germany to borrow, but they invested the money in restructuring and manufacturing raising their productivity. The other Partner countries in the EU-27, perhaps including Britain, used their borrowed money to buy, amongst others, Germany's consumer goods. The balance of payment deficits is tied in to the Government and Corporate indebtedness.

Germany built for the future over the last 10 EYRO years, the rest of us have not and economic reality has caught up. At least the UK can still Govern itself.

I don't think the result will lead to armed tensions in Europe, but there will be a lot of civil unrest, including Germany (normal populace) as they will be unhappy with what Brussels/the Commission and what Angela Merkel have done in their name.

Nor do I see the EU-27 breaking up.

Unfortunately, I have a feeling we will be back here within 6 months and watch the whole thread start to unravel. Perhaps this will be back to a more common sense Common Market not a United States of Europe?

If we could go back to 1975, when the Common Market was basically a free trade area, then over 100 years we may have ended up with an integrated Europe, but based on trade and common interests. But the foolish politicians, and the Commission, have pushed financial integration, and the integration of common structures, well before trade and the peoples of countries were ready.
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Message 1177141 - Posted: 10 Dec 2011, 20:44:33 UTC

It's not only I that was thinking of war....

I believe Angela Merkel first brought the word "War" up in this debacle.

Was that a genuine concern over Germany's past or a veiled threat?

With the way German bankers as well as other prominent EU officials stating that they'll get their revenge on Britain, I know what I'm left to think....

Don't forget, these idiots are the ones ruling us or trying to at least......

Many in Europe are against Britain due to her so called "Special Relationship" with America... I think the rest of Europe had better start thinking the same of Germany & her French poodles!
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Message 1177158 - Posted: 10 Dec 2011, 23:12:13 UTC - in response to Message 1177071.

Kong, it's called Keynesian economics. At least that's what the people who think it's an upward spiral call it. If you look at the math of it, which I'm sure you have, I (and many other people) call it a ponzy scheme.

Of the many events leading to WWI, it's generally accepted WW1 started because of a small group of people getting together and unanimously deciding who gets what and calling it legal. (Austria annexed provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina). A group of Serbians didn't like that they were excluded from this decision, which led to increasing violence.

WWII started pretty much for the same reason. Germany and Russia didn't like the agreement(s) made at the end of WWI, got together and secretly agreed that both would remain neutral in the event of any aggression. Then Germany started to claim (legally in their view) what they thought belonged to them.

Today, we have small groups of people (we'll use the terminology of today, we'll call them politicians), getting together secretly and deciding who gets what. Only today, since lines in the earth have been pretty well defined, it's not over land any more. It's about wealth.

More and more *legal* claims to wealth are being made today on both sides of the pond.

I don't find it interesting; I find it scary.


Well, I am very familiar with the discredited work of Keynes. It got disproved a long time ago, well before it was implemented in any major way. In January of 1931, the Viennese economist Friedrich Hayek delivered a series of 4 lectures at the London School of Economics totally refuting Keynes' theories. Keynesian economics was shown to be crap then, and it is still crap today.

Oh, and it is Ponzi scheme, not Ponzy...

And small groups of people getting together and doing the 'deciding' wasn't just WWI to the present... It has been the way of things for the entire history of the human race. As to the bulk of your statement, even though it is a bit... rough around the edges, I agree with it for the most part.

What most people today call 'rights' are mostly privileges. Very few are actually rights. The foundation right is the right to property, all the other rights (such as right to life) descending from it. When a society allows the weakening of the right to property through forced redistribution of wealth by the government, the other rights are weakened as well. To use an Orwellism, it is 'doubleplusungood'.

And as far as me calling the events 'interesting', well... the term interesting carries a multitude of shades of meaning. The one I had in mind was the alleged 'ancient Chinese curse' "May you live in interesting times".

Most all of Europe is boned over this difficulty (and the USA is too, it will just take us a little bit longer to reach). There is a limit on how much taxes can be raised. So sooner or later they are going to have to cut spending. The more they deficit spend, the more of the government budget in later years is going to have to be dedicated to debt service meaning even higher levels of deficit spending will be necessary. It is a very nasty vicious cycle.

Politicians are reluctant to cut spending. They fear being voted out of office (and rightly so since ever increasing amounts of the electorate becomes dependent of the spending). So, up to now they have just kicked the can on down the road to be dealt with in the future. The problem with this is that every time a solution is put off, the pain of solving the problem grows larger, and the chances for putting it off again grows smaller. Sooner or later the day of reckoning arrives and 'there is a small chance we might get voted out of office' has turned into 'we are going to be lucky if the rioting people don't storm parliament/congress and lynch us'.

European (and US) politicians have promised numerous things to their people that there just isn't the money to pay for anymore, and the timer is ticking for it to all blow up in their faces. Yep. Interesting times indeed.
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Message 1177172 - Posted: 11 Dec 2011, 0:59:17 UTC - in response to Message 1177135.

I think the Euro zone just might realize that the southern Euro countries need to have a diminished Euro (say at about 60% or so of the existing northern Euro). I have no idea how that would be accomplished, but the unified currency was supposed to bring development to the south so that it could approach the north in productivity. For various reasons that has not occurred. Heck you can see it in Italy where the 'functional' Euro economy stops at about Rome.

I agree also regarding Common Market vs and USF. The differences between the states remain intractable for a united europe - those differences economically are even greater than the blue state red state divide in the US.

Running a 'United Europe' via Brussels bureaucrats and technocrats *instead of elected leaders* strikes me as a non-starter as well.



Unfortunately, I have a feeling we will be back here within 6 months and watch the whole thread start to unravel. Perhaps this will be back to a more common sense Common Market not a United States of Europe?

If we could go back to 1975, when the Common Market was basically a free trade area, then over 100 years we may have ended up with an integrated Europe, but based on trade and common interests. But the foolish politicians, and the Commission, have pushed financial integration, and the integration of common structures, well before trade and the peoples of countries were ready.


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Message 1177196 - Posted: 11 Dec 2011, 7:08:13 UTC - in response to Message 1177172.
Last modified: 11 Dec 2011, 7:53:16 UTC

I think the Euro zone just might realize that the southern Euro countries need to have a diminished Euro (say at about 60% or so of the existing northern Euro). I have no idea how that would be accomplished, but the unified currency was supposed to bring development to the south so that it could approach the north in productivity. For various reasons that has not occurred. Heck you can see it in Italy where the 'functional' Euro economy stops at about Rome.

I agree also regarding Common Market vs and USF. The differences between the states remain intractable for a united europe - those differences economically are even greater than the blue state red state divide in the US.

Running a 'United Europe' via Brussels bureaucrats and technocrats *instead of elected leaders* strikes me as a non-starter as well.


"Common sense", Barry. But even after two world wars we still give power
hungry, wealthy hungry individuals the freedom to gain positions of influence
far in excess of that which they should be entitled to. Because of this we have
this botched attempt to grow a united states of Europe because we don't like
America but the're bigger than us so now we need to be as big as them.
The problem here is that the UK kind'a-likes the Americans and for that we
don't fit in well with the European philosophy behind the building of
this super States of Europe. Europe has constantly been worried about the
over-influence America could have upon it's development, post WW2.
President Charles de gaulle used this worry as his reason for blocking
the UK's entry into the Common Market back in the 60's. For he felt that
if the UK came in then the Americans would gain influence through their
close relationship with the UK. de gaulle was no fool, so he possibly had
genuine reasons in fearing American over-influence in a new post war developing
Europe. But this fear could also have been a fundamental mistake on his part.
For he stated that, upon the Common Market being formed, "We must not let this
formation lead us into building a European State for to do this will lead
to eventual failure". Well, had de gaulle permitted the USA to have an
element of influence over Europe's development then a safety guard would have
been put in place for the USA would not have allowed the Common Market to
develop into a super States of Europe, one that could work in opposition to
them. This is what has been happening for as soon as de gaulle passed away
out come the power hungry brigade who plotted, planned then started to build
a super States of Europe.

Germany, France, you have both been utter fools in allowing the power hungry
brigade to influence your thinking on Europe's development. Prime Minister
Edward Heath UK 1974 (thick-Ed'), did you not read the treaty you
were signing up to when you conned the UK electorate into voting to join the Common Market???
I don't suppose you did, you left it to your advisers to do that.
When the mistake in joining was realized the party, on realization,
soon kicked you out.

Germany, your brilliant at business and home economics but embarrassingly
nieve when it comes to understanding other countries abilities to posses
the same. No you can't have a common budgetary policy for all 27 member
countries because they will not play game. No, the Greeks will not accept
that they can't retire anymore at 50 but will have to work on till their
65 years old. No, the Italians will not allow being forced to pay tax to
the level required, as is the case in all other member countries, for to
them, "We earned it and not you our government so it's all ours"
No, the French will not accept much lower government pensions because if
you try that on with us we will erect burning blockades and bring our
ports to a stand-still...and worse!!

So what will happen? The remaining ECM countries (26) will sign a new
budgetary treaty hoping this will stabilize the money markets. Next they
will attempt to implement these budgetary policies but soon find many
member countries are not playing ball because of civil unrest. So as a
last resort in supporting the Euro plus the run on various member countries
bonds they will give the Europeans Central Bank (ECB) full autonomy over
currency control....they will turn the printing presses on and use this
money to buy up all struggling countries bonds....and yes you've got it,
along with this act will come hyperinflation across Europe.
At this point Germany will see post pre-WW2 events happening all over again.
They will not accept this and so will have to ditch the Euro and automatically
gain stability again. At this point the Euro becomes dead and all countries
peddling it will have to adapt back to their own currencies again. France
will be financially damaged severely and will see Germany and the UK as their
enemies. Only for a short time though for realization will soon set-in and
the mistakes made fully appreciated. Soon someone will come up with an idea
of building a Common Market again but just that and nothing else. One which
will involve not only Europe but also America and Canada too. Creating a
unified Northrn Hemisphere trading agreement something that the French have
been against since post WW2. But at the moment, "No Barry", we can't show
common sense over Europe because this does not fit-in with the
Brussels bureaucrats nor technocrats nor power hungrycrats philosophies!
But it soon will once this band have finally gone....shot hopefully!!
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Message 1177222 - Posted: 11 Dec 2011, 10:34:33 UTC

Blimey Nick, quite an outpouring! I agree with a lot of what you say.

Germany - Strongest economy in Europe
France - Fairly strong but can't control their people
Italy - Too politically unstable
Greece - Relies too heavily on tourism to survive
Spain - Suffering from 2008 housing slump

What about the UK? We are one of the Members of the European Union that hasn't also joined the Euro currency. Most people here want out of the EU, but politically it makes sense to have a voice in it. Otherwise we have no say, control, or veto, over what goes on, and what laws they might make that would affect us.

We have no natural resources like diamond or mineral mines, and North sea gas and oil are past their prime and running out, and we now import 50% of our gas. We survive as a country on our exports of services and goods, of which 75% is with Eurozone trading partners. It makes no sense to shoot ourselves in the foot. Having said that, we object in principle to bailing out weaker countries, that can't get their act together, at our expense.

It doesn't help when we have a one-sided UK press that is economical with the facts. All we hear about are wine lakes and butter mountains, and how much the latest bail out will cost us, and what the latest madcap Brussels directive is. What you don't hear about is the £millions that we get from European funds for small businesses in development zones and suchlike.

Pundits say that in time Germany and France will by default, control all of the European economy, setting budgets and bank rates for each member country. I simply cannot see that happening. PM Camereon was right not to sign that Treaty, it might have been in others interests to do so, but not ours. We need to re-negotiate our Member terms or withdraw. But we should support and maintain a Common Trading Market, as we always had. Remember the Green Pound?

What recent events have done is put the Coalition government on rather dodgy ground, with Deputy PM Clegg saying that he signed up to the veto on one hand on behalf of coalition, but he disagrees with it as the Lib Dem leader, as most of his party are Euro sceptics.

Watch this space as they say ......


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Message 1177231 - Posted: 11 Dec 2011, 12:14:26 UTC
Last modified: 11 Dec 2011, 12:14:51 UTC

Well over half the country says he got it right.....

Cameron Got It Right

In democracies, isn't the yay's, oui's & ja's outweigh the nays, non's & nein's?
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Message 1177271 - Posted: 11 Dec 2011, 17:16:46 UTC
Last modified: 21 Mar 2014, 1:40:21 UTC

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Message 1177297 - Posted: 11 Dec 2011, 18:44:11 UTC - in response to Message 1177222.

Blimey Nick, quite an outpouring! I agree with a lot of what you say.

Germany - Strongest economy in Europe
France - Fairly strong but can't control their people
Italy - Too politically unstable
Greece - Relies too heavily on tourism to survive
Spain - Suffering from 2008 housing slump

What about the UK? We are one of the Members of the European Union that hasn't also joined the Euro currency. Most people here want out of the EU, but politically it makes sense to have a voice in it. Otherwise we have no say, control, or veto, over what goes on, and what laws they might make that would affect us.

We have no natural resources like diamond or mineral mines, and North sea gas and oil are past their prime and running out, and we now import 50% of our gas. We survive as a country on our exports of services and goods, of which 75% is with Eurozone trading partners. It makes no sense to shoot ourselves in the foot. Having said that, we object in principle to bailing out weaker countries, that can't get their act together, at our expense.

It doesn't help when we have a one-sided UK press that is economical with the facts. All we hear about are wine lakes and butter mountains, and how much the latest bail out will cost us, and what the latest madcap Brussels directive is. What you don't hear about is the £millions that we get from European funds for small businesses in development zones and suchlike.

Pundits say that in time Germany and France will by default, control all of the European economy, setting budgets and bank rates for each member country. I simply cannot see that happening. PM Camereon was right not to sign that Treaty, it might have been in others interests to do so, but not ours. We need to re-negotiate our Member terms or withdraw. But we should support and maintain a Common Trading Market, as we always had. Remember the Green Pound?

What recent events have done is put the Coalition government on rather dodgy ground, with Deputy PM Clegg saying that he signed up to the veto on one hand on behalf of coalition, but he disagrees with it as the Lib Dem leader, as most of his party are Euro sceptics.

Watch this space as they say ......


Chris, the UK has done well then, since last month when our exports to Europe
were last quoted they stood as 60%. But the problem here with this quoted
figure is that it does not take into account whether these exports were for
European member states consumption or for onwards transit through European
ports and out to the rest of the world. Brussels has a strange way of logging
what is an inport and what is an export with relation to the ECM.
Lord Rees-Mogg, past financial Journalist Times newspaper, issued a
publication on this ECM import/export anomaly around about 2000. Then it was
worked out that 40% of our exports went to Europe of which 22% was for ECM
consumption and the other 18% was for forwards transit through the ECM and
out to the rest of the world. Is this % ratio still the same today?

What Cameron did amounts to a wake-up call to Europe and unless member
countries take back powers from Brussels then the whole shebang is doomed.
The ECM decided that it could run before first learning to walk, now it's
legs have started to buckle beneath it. The whole outfit is now run by an
unaccountable band of Brussels hedonists, so do away with Brussels and
things can be made to work again. Keep Brussels alive so see the ECM die,
the choice is Europe's on which way they go...I know which way I'd go and
that would be the Cameron way....for now.

Regarding the ECM keeping their hands off our city is only a basic right
that we are entitled to protect. For it is one of our major exports in
services and the French president has no right to claim that by staying
independent it therefore takes money away from Europe. He sees our city
institutions as a cash source to support the ailing ECM finances, what
shortsighted folly on his behalf. The real problem is that the ECM has
failed to control effectively what money it does receive from member states.
Brussels wishes to introduce policies that in the end will deny any ECM
state from having veto powers over any policy. Their aim will naturally be
to centralise the ECM financial institution and you can guess where they
will want to site them....near Brussels hence away from London. This is the
risk at hand, a risk, one to many to take. If we're going to tax the city
then lets do so to the total benefit to the UK and not to other ECM states
that do not deserve it.

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Message 1177305 - Posted: 11 Dec 2011, 18:58:58 UTC

I think a slight correction is needed on UK exports to the EU-26. Currently they stand ar 40% of our exports by value. Mind you this figure seems to bounce around between 40% and 50%.

We should be exporting to the rapid growth economies - India, China, Brazil, Russia, the Middle East, the Far East and Pacific Rim countries - where the growth and power is moving to.

That wold ameliorate some of the effects of the €EUROO crisis.
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Message 1177313 - Posted: 11 Dec 2011, 20:29:53 UTC


60% seems about right, but I read up to 75% somewhere. Quite happy to be corrected :-) 40% seems a bit low John?


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Message 1177323 - Posted: 11 Dec 2011, 21:10:25 UTC
Last modified: 11 Dec 2011, 21:11:04 UTC

Got the 40% from the BBC Newsnight examinations of the latest part of the crisis. They consistently quote 40%, and anything over 50% I, frankly, disbelieve.
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Message 1177411 - Posted: 12 Dec 2011, 7:19:06 UTC - in response to Message 1177323.

Got the 40% from the BBC Newsnight examinations of the latest part of the crisis. They consistently quote 40%, and anything over 50% I, frankly, disbelieve.


And of that possibly only half is for ECM member sates consumption.
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Message 1178865 - Posted: 17 Dec 2011, 15:36:33 UTC

Just about what I and others expected ....

1. Sarkozy is a clown
2. Merkel is a cute cookie.
3. Never ever underestimate the UK

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Message 1178886 - Posted: 17 Dec 2011, 16:47:00 UTC

I have to write that a Hybrid creature has emerged between the frech-german talks. It's a monster named MERKOZY and wants the destruction of the EU ideals and replace them by old colonial ideals.

By the way who was the moron that convinced MERKOZY that the defict of a country should be 3% of the GBP?

We the countries from south europe are bad, we need spanking, MERKOZY says... big spenders...

Merkozy says UK is a BAD LAD, and the rating agencies should cut the rating of UK first instead of France

MERKOZY DON'T LIKE RATING AGENCIES, THEY ARE BAD TO MERKOZY

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Message 1178899 - Posted: 17 Dec 2011, 18:03:15 UTC - in response to Message 1178886.



MERKOZY DON'T LIKE RATING AGENCIES, THEY ARE BAD TO MERKOZY


Nor opinion poles either, MERKOZY both most probably going to be voted
out of office at there next respective countries general elections.

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