The Hezbollah-Israel conflict

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Scrooge McDuck
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Message 2137128 - Posted: 14 Jun 2024, 20:23:48 UTC

This thread is intended to discuss the escalating conflict between the terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel, which is increasingly turning into a war. This includes events on the territory of Syria which is used as a transit corridor for Iranian arms transports as well as a staging ground for attacks by Hezbollah and other proxies of the Mullah regime against northern Israel.

I assume also of interest here is the difficult relation between the (sovereign?) Lebanese state government and Hezbollah, the influential islamist political party and most powerful military force in Lebanon which controls Southern Lebanon; a violation of UNSC resolution 1701 from August 2006.
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Message 2137234 - Posted: 17 Jun 2024, 12:16:01 UTC

https://www.newsweek.com/us-issues-warning-israel-lebanon-border-1912323
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Cross-border fire has been near constant since Hamas' October 7 attack on southern Israel, with Hezbollah—a fellow member of the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance"—launching attacks in support of the Palestinian militant group and demanding a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

Skirmishes have since increased in scale, while Israel has also conducted multiple assassinations of top Hezbollah and Hamas officials within Lebanon, both in the southern region controlled by the group and in the capital of Beirut.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week said the IDF is "prepared for an extremely powerful action in the north" into Lebanon while on a visit to the frontier area.

"There will be damage" in the event of a war, Eyal Hulata, who served as the national security adviser to Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, told Newsweek. [...]

While the U.S. and others are seeking calm, Hulata said he is skeptical of any diplomatic solution. "I think really, it's more a matter of when than a matter of if," he said.

With some 200,000 Israelis evacuated from their homes in the north due to the Hezbollah attacks, Hulata said the domestic political pressure to resolve the situation is intense.

"If Hezbollah is not going to remove their forces from the border—and I don't see any political agreement brokered by the Americans or the French or anyone else that would be robust enough over time to keep Hezbollah away from our borders—unfortunately, I think that it's just a matter of time until we will need to do it ourselves," he said.
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Message 2137736 - Posted: 28 Jun 2024, 14:37:35 UTC

Unable to back down, Israel and Hezbollah move closer to all-out war

Full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be "a catastrophe" [...]. But to David Kamari, who lives under near-daily fire on the Israeli side of the border, it would be a solution.

"And sitting here like lambs to slaughter, waiting for the day they will raid us like we saw in the south, that’s not acceptable. Everyone understands that the choice is between war now or war later."

Hussein Aballan recently left his village of Mays al Jbal, around 6 miles (10km) from Kiryat Shmona, on the Lebanese side of the border.

But he backed the Hezbollah assault on Israel.

"Everyone in the south [of Lebanon] has lived through years of aggression, but has come out stronger," he said. "Only through resistance are we strong."

Tom Perry lives in Kibbutz Malkiya, right up against the Lebanese border fence. He was out drinking with friends when a Hezbollah rocket slammed through the front of his house earlier this month.

I think [...] [war] will be a catastrophe to the area," [...] "But unfortunately it looks like we have no other option. No agreement lasts forever, because they want death for us. [...]

Israel’s leaders lost all credibility after the 7 October attacks [...] "They need to quit – all of them" [...]

Many believe Israel’s prime minister is playing for time: caught between growing demands for a ceasefire in Gaza, and growing support for a war in the north.
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Message 2138880 - Posted: 29 Jul 2024, 12:38:14 UTC

Will the Golan Heights rocket spark an inferno?

An Iran-made ballistic missile hit a sports ground in Israel's Golan Heights and killed 12 children and teenagers. They are members of the Arab Druze people, a Shia-muslim minority in Israel. Following Israel's annexation of the Golan Height's from Syria which formed a staging ground for Syrian tank armies in three wars of agression, the Druze minory kept their Syrian citizenship but get an unlimited residence permit in Israel. So the Shia-muslim terrorist army Hezbollah attacks Shia muslim kids in the Golan to fight Israel. Enough said about Hezbollah and Iran in this conflict.

Rocket strike puts Israel and Hezbollah on the brink of all-out war
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Message 2140881 - Posted: 18 Sep 2024, 14:46:34 UTC

Is there a strategic benefit of exploding thousands of pagers, most of them supposedly carried by Hezbollah group leaders, if this will injure most of them but obviously could only neutralize few of them? There is a benefit in switching of their encrypted and non-detectable (receivers only) communication network; that is, to cause chaos in their command and control capabilities... IF an enemy (supposedly Israel) intends to start a massive attack on them within hours... or days? I can't see such intentions.

So, what is this all about? An immature show of power? Boasting? ... or enfuriating Hezbollah leaders... tempt them to take hasty, ill-considered and thus weakening steps? A mystery.

Did the person who pressed the button knew about benefits and costs? A button you can only press once... I doubt that...
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Message 2143452 - Posted: 27 Nov 2024, 8:41:18 UTC

What we know about Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal

Hezbollah fighters will be replaced by Lebanese army forces in that area, who will ensure that infrastructure or weaponry is removed and that it cannot be rebuilt [...]

Over the same 60 days, Israel will gradually withdraw its remaining forces [...], Biden said, adding that it would enable civilians on both sides of the border to return to their homes.

The Lebanese army is expected to deploy 5,000 troops to the south under the agreement [...]

The Lebanese army has also said it does not have the resources - money, manpower and equipment - to fulfil its obligations under the deal, although that could be alleviated by contributions from some of Lebanon’s international allies.

Under resolution 1701, areas south of the Litani should be free of any armed personnel or weapons other than those of the Lebanese state and the [UNIFIL].

This time, the US and France will join the existing tripartite mechanism, which involves Unifil, Lebanon and Israel, which will be charged with monitoring violations [...]
Btw. what was UNIFIL's task over the last 20 years? So they are going to repeat past mistakes, are they? UNIFIL is the same waste of money and efforts of international troop providers, like UNPROFOR was in Bosnia of the 1990s. UN troops are inept to suppress conflicts fueled by belligerent state actors (in Lebanon: Mullahs).

"There will be no US combat troops in the area, but there will be military support for the Lebanese Armed Forces, as we've done in the past. But in this case, it'll be typically done with the Lebanese army and in conjunction with the French military as well," [...]

“If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we [IDF] will attack. If it tries to rebuild terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck carrying rockets, we will attack,” [...]
I still don't understand why France thinks it should be part of this deal. Is Monsieur Macron, in the twilight of his presidency, reminiscing about French great power of the past? Does he understand that it is now also France that is responsible to hold back and contain Hezbollah (which UNIFIL never was capable of)? How? Macron rejects French boots on the ground (hopefully he and Biden remember the last such attempt in the 1980s).

Ultimately, Biden and Macron think they know better than Israel how to contain Hezbollah. Biden forced Netanyahu into this ceasefire. If it turns out not to be permanent, France and the USA are to blame. A win-win situation for Israel which enforced UN resolution 1701 PLUS claimed the strategic freedom to intervene in Lebanon whenever the ceasefire is violated, tolerated by the USA.
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Message boards : Politics : The Hezbollah-Israel conflict


 
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