Coronavirus, Ebola and Infectious diseases, Food & Drugs, Studies, Recalls #7

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Message 2072834 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 4:26:00 UTC - in response to Message 2072828.  

Texas removed all restrictions a month ago (March 10th), yet the infection rate in that state continues on a downward trend.

California: 253.9 residents per square mile; Democratic 45–24 %voter registration
Texas: 109.9 residents per square mile; Republican 42–39 %voter registration

Half of new cases are in 5 states: New York, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and New Jersey

New York: 416 residents per square mile; Democratic 51-22 %voter registration
Michigan: 176.8 residents per square mile; Democratic 45–39 %voter registration
Florida: 397.2 residents per square mile; Democratic 37–35 %voter registration
Pennsylvania: 284 persons per square mile; Democratic 48–38 %voter registration
New Jersey: 1,211.3 residents per square mile; Democratic 38–22 %voter registration

I'll leave it to someone else to look up rates of people actually following CDC protocol in each state and what the various state mandates are in each.
It also might be interesting to plot the peak population density of each.
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Message 2072837 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 5:13:13 UTC

Texas removed all restrictions a month ago (March 10th), yet the infection rate in that state continues on a downward trend.
I certainly wouldn't say that the infection rate is going downwards ATM, but has leveled off.

Though if Texas was a country instead of a state the U.S. would still be where it is and on the country lists it itself would sit in 11th place by cases, 17th by deaths and on the daily infection rate would still sit in the mid-high 20's and the death rate would still see in the high teens to low 20's.

I'm sorry, but I still find that totally unacceptable.
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Message 2072856 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 13:40:51 UTC - in response to Message 2072837.  

Texas removed all restrictions a month ago (March 10th), yet the infection rate in that state continues on a downward trend.
I certainly wouldn't say that the infection rate is going downwards ATM, but has leveled off.


it's a good thing numbers don't lie. plotting the daily infection numbers between 3/9/21-4/8/21 shows that the best fit trendline has a slope of -63. that's a downward trend, objectively.
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Message 2072858 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 15:53:02 UTC - in response to Message 2072856.  
Last modified: 8 Apr 2021, 16:04:57 UTC

... it's a good thing numbers don't lie. plotting the daily infection numbers between 3/9/21-4/8/21 shows that the best fit trendline has a slope of -63. that's a downward trend, objectively.

Why pick the numbers across the entire month?...

More useful is to look at a weekly simple average. That evens out the weekly reporting variation (human 7-day weekly work cycle) yet indicates a reasonable real world response.


Now for the very special note about such COVID numbers and COVID trends which is a real killer:

* The numbers indicating a reduction in current infections are in 'real time'. When someone is no longer infected and has either recovered or died, you know that immediately.

HOWEVER!

* The numbers indicating an increase in current infections are delayed by at least one to two weeks, and the reported deaths are at least a month behind reality.

(It takes about a week to notice uncomfortable symptoms and then a few more days before any medics get to know about it, and then a few weeks for the really ill to then die. The statistics get reported after the event...)

Also, unless a random survey is run, similar to our UK REACT study that is run independently by our Imperial College (University), the reported infection numbers will miss the many people that show no symptoms or those who only suffer mild symptoms, and then there are all those who shrug off COVID as a "someone else's problem (of long term disability and death)".


So, in short:

You get to see the downward trend immediately. The upward numbers lull you about what was happening two weeks behind reality for what the infections really were those two weeks previously...

I strongly suspect that aspect of the infection reporting is completely beyond any political understanding and appreciation...

Aside: Was there not also a data analyst for Texas who was threatened and run out of the state for reporting COVID numbers that were too accurate and so not politically 'acceptable'?


I really do hope that we can clear out the COVID pandemic sooner rather than painfully unnecessarily later. We've now had over a year to learn what works vs what kills. Yet some politics is still expensively and unbelievably stupidly not helping.


Stay safe folks!
Martin

UK REACT study: Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT) Study

REACT-1 study of coronavirus transmission: March 2021 final results
wrote:
... [UK:] During the period 11 March to 30 March ... 20 in 10,000 infected.

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Message 2072859 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 16:02:24 UTC - in response to Message 2072858.  
Last modified: 8 Apr 2021, 16:10:31 UTC

... it's a good thing numbers don't lie. plotting the daily infection numbers between 3/9/21-4/8/21 shows that the best fit trendline has a slope of -63. that's a downward trend, objectively.

Why pick the numbers across the entire month?...


because it illustrates the overall change since the policy was changed. if reducing restrictions was "bad" with no considerations to any other factors, then you'd expect to see a worse response long term, but that's not what the data shows.

More useful is to look at a weekly simple average. That evens out the weekly reporting variation (human 7-day weekly work cycle) yet indicates a reasonable real world response.


I don't agree that this is useful. if you start looking at things with a magnifying glass you start to miss the bigger picture. then you start to freak out when you get outliers instead of seeing that things in general are getting better.

the vaccine is likely working and having a positive impact, and with that in mind, it makes sense to start to removing restrictions. especially in areas that aren't seeing high infections numbers already due to a variety of factors like population density and demographics.
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Message 2072860 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 16:12:46 UTC - in response to Message 2072859.  

Wow, now we go into cherry picking and conspiracy to chose what answer is wanted!


Note that using a one month average is fantastic for politics because you then can chose your answer months after whatever 'event' happened months ago!

Please reread the two sentences about the timing between getting to know about the increase in infection rate vs any decrease?

The killer aspect for COVID is that people are very infectious very soon after infection. Someone infected then silently (unknowingly) infects everyone around them for a number of days before they themselves first feel ill...


... Which is why we have such a deadly pandemic.

Stay safe folks!
Martin
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Message 2072861 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 16:19:04 UTC - in response to Message 2072859.  

... the vaccine is likely working and having a positive impact, and with that in mind, it makes sense to start to removing restrictions. especially in areas that aren't seeing high infections numbers already due to a variety of factors like population density and demographics.

Timely caution is still very much needed first.

We need most people to get vaccinated and to have been vaccinated for at least three weeks for their immunity to build before we can start to relax about dead bodies in the hospital corridors...


Meanwhile, I guess the corrupt rule-making politicians are safe in their ivory castles with all the best that their supporters can pay for them, regardless of how many people get sacrificed. But that is a little something for over in the other respective politics threads...


Stay safe folks!
Martin
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Message 2072862 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 16:24:07 UTC
Last modified: 8 Apr 2021, 17:14:59 UTC

Note: The fear and danger here is that COVID can exponentially explode in infection rate far faster than anyone can notice until afterwards and far too late.

That in itself could be managed, as is being done in Australia and New Zealand where for any new cases they impose an immediate severe lockdown.

Severe lockdowns can work for 'small' groups.

However, for larger groups in such as the USA, I would guess that the Devil's choice to minimize deaths would be between the virus vs a Confederate-style shootout...


Stay safe folks!
Martin

(Edit: Spelling)
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Message 2072866 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 16:44:22 UTC

"The vaccine is likely working"
For a moment, thought I was reading a ****ing script for a comedy show.

How's this for numbers: There are 6 billion+ people on the planet.
HOW many are actually vaccinated?
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Message 2072869 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 16:58:28 UTC - in response to Message 2072860.  

Wow, now we go into cherry picking and conspiracy to chose what answer is wanted!


Note that using a one month average is fantastic for politics because you then can chose your answer months after whatever 'event' happened months ago!

Please reread the two sentences about the timing between getting to know about the increase in infection rate vs any decrease?

The killer aspect for COVID is that people are very infectious very soon after infection. Someone infected then silently (unknowingly) infects everyone around them for a number of days before they themselves first feel ill...


... Which is why we have such a deadly pandemic.

Stay safe folks!
Martin


I'm using one month, because that's all the data that is available. I lack the ability to travel to the future for more data.

but reviewing your previous comment about using a 7-day average. each data point as an average of the previous 7 days on a sliding scale. even though this cuts the dataset to only 3 weeks, the trend is much the same, slope of -58, still a downward trend.
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Message 2072870 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 16:59:59 UTC - in response to Message 2072866.  
Last modified: 8 Apr 2021, 17:31:03 UTC

"The vaccine is likely working"
For a moment, thought I was reading a ****ing script for a comedy show.

How's this for numbers: There are 6 billion+ people on the planet.
HOW many are actually vaccinated?


it's more than obvious that my comment is in the context of more local scales, on the order of US-state level. I didn't know the US was responsible for vaccinating the entire planet. surely this lack of vaccinations across the globe is solely the US's fault?

and to compare, the US has fully vaccinated roughly 20% of the population (with only 2 states, GA/UT, below 15%), at 65 million people fully vaccinated, that's almost the entire population of the UK, whereas the UK at around 8.5% fully vaccinated, why so slow?
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Message 2072871 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 17:08:02 UTC - in response to Message 2072870.  

I'm not that subtle.
Funny how even a valid point is seen as an attack on the U.S.
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Message 2072876 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 17:35:42 UTC - in response to Message 2072870.  

... whereas the UK at around 8.5%, why so slow?
The UK made a slightly strange decision to change the protocol, only a few days after the mass vaccination got under way. Instead of giving the second dose three weeks after the first (and after the first - and oldest - group had been given a firm appointment for their booster), they switched to a 12-week delay.

They have got through an enormous number of first jabs, and collectively we're probably closer to herd immunity than the countries which stuck to a three-week interval: a higher proportion of the immediate protection comes with the first jab. But it was a strange and unsettling decision at the time. And not the first.
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Message 2072878 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 17:46:36 UTC - in response to Message 2072870.  

The UK has chosen to extend to the max the gap between the 1st and 2nd jabs. This gives the max possible number of people that have some protection, and it looks like it is working so far, as new cases are down to ~3,000/day from 60,000/day in early Jan and below 50 deaths/day from 1,200+/day in late Jan. (7 day averages)
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Message 2072879 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 17:49:27 UTC - in response to Message 2072876.  
Last modified: 8 Apr 2021, 17:50:12 UTC

and collectively we're probably closer to herd immunity than the countries which stuck to a three-week interval


Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible
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Message 2072881 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 17:55:57 UTC - in response to Message 2072878.  
Last modified: 8 Apr 2021, 17:59:40 UTC

The UK has chosen to extend to the max the gap between the 1st and 2nd jabs. This gives the max possible number of people that have some protection, and it looks like it is working so far, as new cases are down to ~3,000/day from 60,000/day in early Jan and below 50 deaths/day from 1,200+/day in late Jan. (7 day averages)


can you quantify how much of the reduction was due solely to vaccination and not just from immunity gained from prior infection?

the numbers were already in freefall right when vaccination started, and continued to fall well before the effects of the "first jab" vaccination could be seen. if you believe the herd immunity myth from first jabs, you'd only JUST start seeing some traction recently, but it's been diving naturally for quite some time now. the UKs numbers peaked around Jan 9th, and at that time only 3% of the population had received the at least the first dose, not enough to account for the sudden drop in cases.
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Message 2072882 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 18:45:17 UTC - in response to Message 2072881.  
Last modified: 8 Apr 2021, 18:47:06 UTC

The UK has chosen to extend to the max the gap between the 1st and 2nd jabs. This gives the max possible number of people that have some protection, and it looks like it is working so far, as new cases are down to ~3,000/day from 60,000/day in early Jan and below 50 deaths/day from 1,200+/day in late Jan. (7 day averages)


can you quantify how much of the reduction was due solely to vaccination and not just from immunity gained from prior infection?

the numbers were already in freefall right when vaccination started, and continued to fall well before the effects of the "first jab" vaccination could be seen. if you believe the herd immunity myth from first jabs, you'd only JUST start seeing some traction recently, but it's been diving naturally for quite some time now. the UKs numbers peaked around Jan 9th, and at that time only 3% of the population had received the at least the first dose, not enough to account for the sudden drop in cases.

We have had a controlled tiered lock-down that started on 2nd Dec 2020 and
– December 19: The Prime Minister cancels Christmas for almost 18 million people across London and eastern and south-east England by moving them into a newly created Tier 4 for two weeks – effectively returning to the lockdown rules of November – after scientists warn of the rapid spread of the new variant VUI 202012/01.

The lock-downs were only started to be eased at the end of March, but still no pubs etc open or foreign holidays allowed .
15 February - British and Irish citizens arriving in the UK after 4.00am are required to quarantine at a government designated hotel for ten days

Also because we have have a good Covid sequencing organisation it has done about 50% of all sequencing in the world, the Brazil and SA variants have been detected early and effectively stopped.

So it isn't just down to vaccinations, lock-downs and quarantines have also aided the decreases.
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Message 2072883 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 18:51:34 UTC - in response to Message 2072882.  
Last modified: 8 Apr 2021, 18:53:23 UTC

The UK has chosen to extend to the max the gap between the 1st and 2nd jabs. This gives the max possible number of people that have some protection, and it looks like it is working so far, as new cases are down to ~3,000/day from 60,000/day in early Jan and below 50 deaths/day from 1,200+/day in late Jan. (7 day averages)


can you quantify how much of the reduction was due solely to vaccination and not just from immunity gained from prior infection?

the numbers were already in freefall right when vaccination started, and continued to fall well before the effects of the "first jab" vaccination could be seen. if you believe the herd immunity myth from first jabs, you'd only JUST start seeing some traction recently, but it's been diving naturally for quite some time now. the UKs numbers peaked around Jan 9th, and at that time only 3% of the population had received the at least the first dose, not enough to account for the sudden drop in cases.

We have had a controlled tiered lock-down that started on 2nd Dec 2020 and
– December 19: The Prime Minister cancels Christmas for almost 18 million people across London and eastern and south-east England by moving them into a newly created Tier 4 for two weeks – effectively returning to the lockdown rules of November – after scientists warn of the rapid spread of the new variant VUI 202012/01.

The lock-downs were only started to be eased at the end of March, but still no pubs etc open or foreign holidays allowed .
15 February - British and Irish citizens arriving in the UK after 4.00am are required to quarantine at a government designated hotel for ten days

Also because we have have a good Covid sequencing organisation it has done about 50% of all sequencing in the world, the Brazil and SA variants have been detected early and effectively stopped.

So it isn't just down to vaccinations, lock-downs and quarantines have also aided the decreases.


so how do you explain that the US's numbers follow the exact same trend with the exact same timing? we had no such widespread lockdown at this time, yet our numbers changed in the same way. peak right around 1/9/21, then infections freefall until early march when things started to level out.

I'll say it again, correlation doesn't equal causation. it's easy to find patterns that don't exist when you do this.
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Message 2072884 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 19:04:32 UTC - in response to Message 2072883.  

You might have stated the reason earlier on, Population density.
UK is about a third of the size of Texas with a population 2.25 times bigger.
England population density 432/sq km
Texas population density 40/sq km
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Message 2072885 - Posted: 8 Apr 2021, 19:17:15 UTC - in response to Message 2072884.  
Last modified: 8 Apr 2021, 19:26:54 UTC

The figures in my previous post were based on the US as a whole, not just Texas.

But in either case, if you want to say that a correlating sudden and sharp change in infection rates between two separate nations, or states within those nations, is due to a relatively static population density, I’ll have to disagree wholeheartedly. Unless there was a huge change in population density of either starting 1/9/2021 that I wasn’t aware of.

Population density can impact general number levels, but without a sudden change, couldn’t really explain the sharp decline in rates we’re observing.
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Message boards : Politics : Coronavirus, Ebola and Infectious diseases, Food & Drugs, Studies, Recalls #7


 
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