Will history write it as PooTin, Benji or western stupidity that ultimately started it or someone else?

Leaked military documents show a country is fearful of war spilling across Europe - and it has already sent troops to Poland.

Germany’s worried. A leaked secret military report reveals it is exploring the idea of Russia being so emboldened by the United States’ abandonment of Ukraine that it also invades Poland. And it’s not alone.

German newspaper Bild has obtained a copy of Alliance Defense 2025 – an “exercise scenario” produced by Germany’s Ministry of Defence detailing a potential massive Russian assault on Europe.

It’s a worst-case scenario.

And the ministry has since emphasised that it is “highly unlikely”.

However, military intelligence agencies worldwide are constantly required to analyse a spectrum of possible near, intermediate, and far-future threats.

This one is based on the premise of the rapid collapse of Ukraine amid faltering Western support. And President Vladimir Putin doing precisely what he says he wants to do – invade the former East European Soviet states of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.

They’re now members of the NATO military alliance. Any attack on any or all of these is considered an attack on every nation within the alliance.....

Netanyahu rejects US calls for Palestinian state after Gaza war.

sraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected US calls to scale back Israel's military offensive in the Gaza Strip or take steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state after the war, drawing an immediate scolding from the White House.....

Or the U.S. for supplying him with weapons too not only to lob on Palestinians to eradicate them, but to also lob into other countries causing more Arab conflict when those weapons would be better off being sent to the Ukraine instead?

Fighting rages across Gaza where death toll surges.

Strikes on Syria's Damascus sees at least 10 killed, including five Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

But let's not forget about about little overfed Kim and overfed Xi or even overfed Donny either.

Will history write it as PooTin, Benji or western stupidity that ultimately started it or someone else?...

... Or rather, something else...

Such as the interruption to world trade, or the present unsustainable bubble bursting for the world markets.

Or... An extreme weather event knocking over a few dominoes...

Or an interruption to the full flow of water along the Nile or the Ganges...


There is a lot to watch!

Meanwhile, Asia and the Middle East are a tangled mosaic of madness that is gathering further chips and splinters, day by day... How can we turn that around into love and understanding and cooperation and peace?


All in our deadly political world...
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
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The reelection of Rump the PooTin lover would do it for sure.

Benji is definitely pushing for the title of v2.0 now. :-(

Netanyahu says war to continue 'on all fronts'.

WWIII, who will start it?

It's not of interest who will start it. It's more a question of when and where.

Donald Trump's reelection will set the date. Trump isn't going to ignite WWIII but he definitely will end the Pax Americana.

Unlikely? We will see... America first! NATO? Superfluous. Geostrategic competitors and enemies of the West will exploit this event as an opportunity to start conflicts all around the globe; no wars but minor battles, hybrid warfare, painful needle pricks everywhere. Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iran are just the beginning. Who will bear most of the blame for Trump's beliefs? We naive Europeans! The large majority of us still believes pacifism and disarmament leads to eternal world peace. Obama criticized it, Trump and Biden criticized it. Our ruling elites tell us since ~1990: this is the lesson we learned from WWII. Our today's conservatives don't disagree but duck away. Putin? A rational figure. If we no longer disturb him redesigning his Ukrainian front yard, he won't bother us any further. Eternal peace returns. What are we waiting for? Oh... his Baltic front yard? Well, if he just has to redesign it too; we shouldn't oppose.... The many nuclear IRBMs in Kaliningrad, just 300 km to Warsaw, 600 km to Berlin. We have to understand Russia fears us; that's why the rockets... We can't do anything... and after all... Putin is a rational leader, a "flawless democrat" as our former Chancelor explained. He is going to oppress Poland? Well, for centuries its East was part of Russia... We can't change the Russian mindset... and after all they are led by a rational leader.

So much more firewood to burn in WWIII:

• Iran's shia and Pakistan's sunni muslims attacking each other because of rebel groups; border conflicts...
  
• India's growing Hindu nationalism vs. muslim minorities (and Pakistan)
  
• China facing economic setbacks, thus loss of face domestically? Uh, Taiwan was ROBBED from China by the evil West...
  
• Vietnam, Philippines, Australia... all have been so rude and unfriendly to China recently...
  
• Kim?
  
• Who's faster? Iran's Mullah's finishing the Bomb or Iran's women ending their autocratic rule?
  
• Millions of easily irritated thus mobilizable Muslims in Western societies
  
• the woke metropolitan East Coast America vs. Trump's America.
  
• Nuclear threats to Israel from Iran (via Yemen's Houthis)
  

A strange dystopia? Or a quite likely future?

Leaked military documents show a country is fearful of war spilling across Europe - and it has already sent troops to Poland.

Germany’s worried. A leaked secret military report reveals it is exploring the idea of Russia being so emboldened by the United States’ abandonment of Ukraine that it also invades Poland. And it’s not alone.

German newspaper Bild has obtained a copy of Alliance Defense 2025 – an “exercise scenario” produced by Germany’s Ministry of Defence detailing a potential massive Russian assault on Europe.

"Bild" is Germany's widespread tabloid comparable to "Daily Mirror" in the UK. Nevertheless there are capable military analysts within Bundeswehr's general staff.

And the ministry has since emphasised that it is “highly unlikely”.

That's the politicians' assessment... Other events they assessed as 'highly unlikely':

• 2014: Russia occupying Crimea
  
• 2014: Russia as the initiator of the so-called "civil war" in Donetsk and Lukhansk districts of Ukraine
  
• 2016: Trump's election victory
  
• 2024: Trump's reelection
  

There are no plans nor any preparations for Putin threatening Baltic NATO countries or a Trump victory. They sit and watch the cobra with a cold shiver. So far it hasn't bitten them, so they keep on watching. Since more than a year they discuss to permanently deploy some dozen tanks and 5,000 German troops to Lithuania. When? Maybe in some years if circumstances allow, if there are enough trained soldiers, sufficient usable tanks; if there's infrastructure, housing, if A, if B, if C...

This one is based on the premise of the rapid collapse of Ukraine amid faltering Western support. And President Vladimir Putin doing precisely what he says he wants to do – invade the former East European Soviet states of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.

Europe could easily replace America's financial aid to Ukraine starting tomorrow. It's much harder to replace U.S. armament and ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. The European defense industry already could have been ramped up with a year's notice---if there's the political will to do so. There isn't. There are sufficient many heavy weapons from the Cold War era still in the stocks of Western European armies to send them to Ukraine. Surely need some refurbishment... But the political will to spend relevant money for new armaments and massive amount of ammunition is completely missing. This is where left-wing pacifist beliefs are confronted with the long-confessed sin of Cold War's era "arms build-up"; they called it "over-armament" back then. "Arms build-up" still is a simple trigger word to morally condemn any political plans for adequately equipping armed forces or provide Ukraine with necessary arms. Most of today's politicians fear these widespread Cold War era pacifist beliefs of the majority more than Putin's threats. This is how an economic dwarf like Russia can threaten an economic giant like Europe. Only in Poland and the Baltics the beliefs of the majority changed completely. But they still lack the economic power and I fear Poland can't keep up its ambitious (ultra expensive) plans which would make it the most powerful land force in Europe.

They’re now members of the NATO military alliance. Any attack on any or all of these is considered an attack on every nation within the alliance.....

Back in the Cold War western politicians/diplomats found that this mantra (attack on any is an attack on all) is not sufficient to deter small-scaled attacks from the USSR. They developed NATO's strategy from "Massive Retaliation" to "Flexible Response" which required a massive increase in heavy weapons, military logistics, flexible pre-positioned troops near potential frontlines. These capacities have been completely abolished after 1990. Our politicians and diplomats lost former strategic awareness as well as any understanding of a reasonable military/security policy. Today they behave like 'Alice in Wonderland', surprised by each new and unexpected event. The Baltics are almost surrounded by Russia and Belarus; easily to separate from NATO territory. Credible naval power and amphibious forces can deter Russia there. Neither Finland, Sweden, the Balts nor Poland ever had them. (West) Germany had them until ~1990...2000. Today only Norway, NL, UK have significant naval power. Amphibious forces? Eventually the UK. Would the US risk thousands of US Marines for tiny Estonia or Latvia when Europeans can't contribute? That's European irresponsibility. The mantra “attack on any is an attack on all” led to this dangerous negligence. And the mistake of not wanting to provoke Russia in the Baltic Sea region before the events of 2014.

Well PooTin is definitely trying hard to keep his lead in the race.

Russia's Africa Push Sparks Alarm: 'Great Chaos Brewing'.

Russia has rapidly expanded its military presence in Libya, an investigation has found, sparking alarm at a time of heightened tensions between Moscow and the West amid the war in Ukraine.

Citing sources within Libyan security agencies and the Russian military, the independent Russian site Verstka, the All Eyes On Wagner Project, and the U.S.-funded media outlet Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, found that in the past few weeks alone, at least 1,800 Russian soldiers and mercenaries were deployed to the north African country, with some transferred on to neighboring Niger, where tensions are brewing between Moscow and Washington.

Russia's Wagner mercenary group has maintained a covert presence in Libya following the NATO-backed ousting of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011. Washington has accused Moscow of using its mercenaries in Libya to interfere in conflict in the country.

After a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Libya's eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar in late September 2023, Bloomberg reported that a defense accord was being laid out that would see Moscow expand its military presence in eastern Libya, and could lead to a naval base.....