Will This COVID OBSESSION Ever GO AWAY?

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Message 2093088 - Posted: 28 Jan 2022, 22:41:35 UTC

It'll go away when everyone is fully vaccinated. ;-)

11 days to go until I'm due for my booster and thankfully I can get that done at the local village chemist shop this time which is just a short walk away.
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Message 2093095 - Posted: 29 Jan 2022, 2:05:29 UTC - in response to Message 2093086.  

It goes away when the right wing has no possibility of political power. Until then they need it to rally their troops.
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Message 2093099 - Posted: 29 Jan 2022, 2:10:01 UTC

The far right (Trump and his RINO's and their supporters) are what is really destroying the U.S..
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Message 2093106 - Posted: 29 Jan 2022, 4:28:00 UTC
Last modified: 29 Jan 2022, 4:30:48 UTC

A link has already been provided here, https://setiathome.berkeley.edu/forum_thread.php?id=85611&postid=2092960, if you bothered to read it, but I've provided plenty of others that you likely havn't been bothered reading either. ;-)

Others here have also provided links as well, but obviously you havn't read them either. :-(
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Message 2093338 - Posted: 1 Feb 2022, 19:40:37 UTC - in response to Message 2093106.  

A link has already been provided here, https://setiathome.berkeley.edu/forum_thread.php?id=85611&postid=2092960, if you bothered to read it, but I've provided plenty of others that you likely havn't been bothered reading either. ;-)

Others here have also provided links as well, but obviously you havn't read them either. :-(

Facts don't matter to Dull, how he feels is all that counts.
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Message 2093393 - Posted: 2 Feb 2022, 10:37:39 UTC
Last modified: 2 Feb 2022, 10:40:20 UTC

To answer the thread title.

Probably

With Omicron being the dominant variant now, is it time to ignore the Covid-19 total cases and deaths and the stats generated from those numbers?

These numbers include the historical data from previous variants, such as the initial surge of cases at the beginning in Italy, UK and around NYC. And therefore tell us virtually nothing about what is happening now.

What we need to know is the percentage ratio between deaths now and new cases about 21 days ago. Because that, in the worse cases, is the average time between initial test and death. For those that need to know, the boffins call this the Case Fatality Rate (CFR).

CFR = 100 x Deaths 7 day average / New cases 7 day average 21 days previously

A quick note here. It is preferable to use reliable 7 day averages in this type of calculation, to get over the sometimes lack of numbers on w/ends, If you live in Florida, or similar places where the idiots in charge try to baffle you, you might be forced to use the latest reliable numbers, probably a week old, that are sent to government.

For reference the CFR for flu, each winter, is between 0.1 and 0.2 per cent.

Recently we have noted the high numbers of new cases in European countries including the UK, if these also come with low numbers of new deaths then this could be good news.

The latest CFR in England in the seven days up to January 26 are now just 0.14 per cent - one death in 714 positive cases. This could fall further due to the correction I mentioned on Monday.

If this continues and we don't get a new deadly variant it could be that Covid can be treated just like flu with an occasional jab every year hopefully.
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Message 2093409 - Posted: 2 Feb 2022, 18:23:28 UTC - in response to Message 2093393.  
Last modified: 2 Feb 2022, 19:07:10 UTC

Very good comment about Case Fatality Rate (CFR), thanks.

... The latest CFR in England in the seven days up to January 26 are now just 0.14 per cent - one death in 714 positive cases. This could fall further due to the correction I mentioned on Monday...

Briefly searching the internet, I may be dumb and blind but a quick search gives nothing useful about covid CFR (other than the usual unfortunate blizzard of sensationalist misinformation that the search algorithms zero in on)...

Taking a look on our Gov.UK "Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date of death" and "Cases by specimen date":

Simplistically taking the most recent spikes as being connected, I get (7-day averages):
    * Infections spiked at 212565 for 1 Jan 2022 (New Year's PARTY TIME!!!)
    * Deaths spiked at 780 for 16 Jan 2022.



Hence, simplistically, that gives an estimated CFR of 0.4%.

So, perhaps x2 to x4 that of flu.

Special note: That says nothing about those people that are left suffering debilitating "Long covid" symptoms...


HOWEVER!

That is simply taking the maximums (the peaks)...

More complete and representative is to take the corresponding areas under the respective curves for the corresponding periods of illness -> death. I'll let others with more available time untangle that more accurate result! (The spreadsheet data is available for those charts.)

Also note that is using the "Test and Trace" figures which under-report the actual number of infections. At least that suggests that the CFR is a little less than x2 to x4 that of flu...


Still not good but a lot less bad from the earlier covid variants.

Stay safe folks!
Martin


Edit: Note the simplistic take on the numbers...

Using the same glib logic for hospitalizations, we have a peak of 2299 covid admissions on 1st Jan 2022 (to give a hospitalization rate of 1%). Covid is fast acting but not that fast! Also, that peak is much flatter and tails off much longer and so shows that just taking the peak numbers is not a good match to spikes from specific events versus the flatter broader peak seen from the consequences (hospitalizations or deaths) of superspreader events.

Hence, in the real world, the UK covid Omicron CFR can be expected to be worse than my simplistic estimate from the peak numbers.


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Message 2093413 - Posted: 2 Feb 2022, 19:18:57 UTC - in response to Message 2093409.  

I deliberately said do not use peak numbers, use a 7 day averages and 21 days apart, as that is the average time between a first test and the death.

If you use the Worldometers page https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and then click of the country of interest, UK in this case, scroll down to the graphs of interest where you will find buttons for 3 and 7 day averages.

Plugging those into the formula will give the highest possible CFR for the period, as these numbers are the total number of people who have died with Covid on the death certificate for some of these it is not considered the primary cause of death. Some estimates say about 25% of 'Covid deaths' are primarily from other causes.

From those graphs the 7 day average for the 31st Jan was 264 and the 7 day average for new cases 21 days earlier on the 10th was 177,559.

CFR = 100 * 264 / 177559 = 0.1487

That lies within the bracket I quoted for flu deaths in recent years before Covid.
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Message 2093422 - Posted: 2 Feb 2022, 21:42:07 UTC

Rumors are bounding about here this morning is that NoVax Djokervic is to get his jabs and become fully vaxxed.

Rumor also has it that sponsors $'s has played a large part in his decision.
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Message 2093439 - Posted: 3 Feb 2022, 1:08:49 UTC

Stay in da Sun.
Don't forget to cover up, slap on the sunscreen and put on a hat.

Ya gotta watch out for those melanomas. ;-)
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Message 2093470 - Posted: 3 Feb 2022, 21:02:23 UTC

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Message boards : Politics : Will This COVID OBSESSION Ever GO AWAY?


 
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