The Ukraine Crisis

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Message 2125602 - Posted: 16 Sep 2023, 9:05:42 UTC

As PooTin keeps losing large numbers of his orcs.

Russian Brigade 'in Tatters' After Liberation of Andriivka.

Russian Elite Unit Commander Killed in Ukraine.

While his hold on Crimea is looking more shaky by the day.

Crimea Strike Suggests 'Systemic Failures' of Russian Air Defense.

Meanwhile PooTin's so called "attack dog" seems to have eaten or drunk something that hasn't agreed with him. Or is it just karma?

Key Putin Ally Ramzan Kadyrov Is Critically Ill.

And Russia Running Out of Pretty Much Everything as Sanctions Bite.
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Message 2125640 - Posted: 17 Sep 2023, 0:17:34 UTC

That's another 1 of PooTin's boats out of the way for a while.

Russian Black Sea Missile Ship Towed Away After Drone Attack.

While PooTin's orc commanders certainly don't like their underlings surrendering.

[url=]Video Shows Russian Military Opening Fire on Own Troops[/url]

And the use of drones by Ukraine is expanding.

Ukrainian innovators want to bring life-saving robots to the battlefield.

Though credit for Ukrainian solders moving through mined ground must go to a young 17yr old Ukrainian.

A Ukrainian Teenager Invented a Drone That Can Detect Land Mines.

Now that is going to be really helpful all around the world to get rid of that everlasting problem and it just goes to show just how innovative the Ukrainians really are and how much they've changed the way war is waged against a much larger invader. In fact, even though neither side releases official figures, some experts reckon that Ukrainian tactics have resulted in figures of 4-6 orcs being lost for every Ukrainian soldier (some put it even higher, but some prejudices are likely involved there). That's likely why PooTin likes bombing civilians.
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Message 2125651 - Posted: 17 Sep 2023, 7:51:59 UTC
Last modified: 17 Sep 2023, 7:53:49 UTC

PooTin makes a decision on his Black Sea fleet, he's lost enough.

Russia Moves Ships From Black Sea Following Strikes.

And this is the missing link from the last post.

Video Shows Russian Military Opening Fire on Own Troops.
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Message 2125891 - Posted: 22 Sep 2023, 21:34:15 UTC

While PooTin's orcs are folding his Black Sea Fleet is finding out the the Black Sea is not a safe place to be.

Ukraine War Map Shows Zaporizhzhia Gains as 'Surovikin Line' Breach Expands.

Ukraine Is Closing the Net on Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
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Message 2125906 - Posted: 23 Sep 2023, 2:17:12 UTC

Moment missile strikes Russian Black Sea HQ

Some reports say the Admiral was killed.
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Message 2125927 - Posted: 23 Sep 2023, 8:00:43 UTC

But, hidden in the small print,

Meanwhile, the Washington Post cites several people familiar with the discussions as saying Ukraine will get ATACMS armed with cluster bomblets rather than a single warhead.
(from Ukraine war: US to give Kyiv long-range ATACMS missiles - media reports)

That would really represent the USA abandoning the moral high ground. See Convention on Cluster Munitions
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Message 2125930 - Posted: 23 Sep 2023, 8:24:54 UTC

What moral high ground?

.....To date, the United States and Russia have not signed this convention, nor has Ukraine.....
Now PooTin has been using them since the beginning of his war in Ukraine against civilian targets, the U.S. needs to get rid of its stockpile of the things and why shouldn't the Ukrainians use that stockpile to give PooTin and his orcs a taste of their own medicine back?

I'm sorry Richard, but I have a different view on this subject, and unlike PooTin the Ukrainians will be using them on orc military targets, not directly against civilians (though sadly some may get caught up in it). PooTin took the lowlife route from the start and he, as well as his orcs, should be made to pay for it.
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Message 2125936 - Posted: 23 Sep 2023, 10:14:09 UTC - in response to Message 2125930.  

We'll have to agree to differ on that one. As a Brit of a certain age, I have inherited the cultural imprint of the phrase "Lions led by donkeys", used to summarise the trench warfare of the First World War. I also have a vivid personal memory of helping to stage a school production of "Oh, What a Lovely War!" in the late 1960s (mentioned at the start of the Popular culture section of the same Wikipedia article, and later made into a major film). Those two influences have led me to the view that war should be avoided at all costs - the human race should have developed better, non-violent, methods of dispute resolution by now.

But if warfare is inevitable - and sadly I agree with the view that Ukraine is fully justified in resisting the Russian invasion by whatever means possible - then that resistance should concentrate on countering the political and military leadership that invented the pretext for invasion in the first place. The real problem isn't the brainwashed conscripts on and close to the front line, it's in the Kremlin and the military headquarters beholden to it.

I think Ukraine's tactics to date have been about as good as we can expect: taking out physical assets (supply dumps, communications links) wherever possible, and now moving to command resources like the Black Sea fleet and fleet HQ. That requires long-range, high precision delivery systems and powerful munitions, capable of taking out hardened targets. Cluster munitions have a different purpose, and are used against lower-grade targets closer to the front line, both physically and by damaging morale. And they don't discriminate between military and civilian victims.

By all means, the USA and Russia should join the convention against their use - but targeting a conscript army embedded in a civilian area is not an acceptable way of disposing of the stockpile.
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Message 2125948 - Posted: 23 Sep 2023, 16:22:42 UTC - in response to Message 2125936.  
Last modified: 23 Sep 2023, 16:24:06 UTC

... But if warfare is inevitable...

With Putin's Russia, we forever have a series of forever wars...

And note the increasing tally of "Frozen Wars" that Putin's Russia still perpetuates.

This will continue, forever, until our world is destroyed or until the Putin regime, and his cronies, are all replaced with something somewhat more honest and open to cooperation.

Similarly, we have a forever war with Jinping and his China. So far, that continues with the games of inflicting a thousand skirmishes against the world whilst China arms up to ultimately "do a Hitler". Note we already have genocide ongoing in China, multiple times over. Open conquests come next.

And appeasement never works.


The way out?...

Unfortunately, the hopeful harmonizing effects of World Trade have come to naught.

So far, beneficent dictators and the balance of Democracy look to be our only alternatives.


Stay safe folks?
Martin
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Message 2125953 - Posted: 23 Sep 2023, 17:03:08 UTC - in response to Message 2125936.  
Last modified: 23 Sep 2023, 17:18:23 UTC

By all means, the USA and Russia should join the convention against their use - but targeting a conscript army embedded in a civilian area is not an acceptable way of disposing of the stockpile.
I agree with most of Richard's arguments. I'm less optimistic regarding conventions and treaties.

It doesn't matter whether Russia joins a convention or not. This has ZERO meaning. Russia breaks every treaty and ignores every convention. For the time being only a balance of power and deterrence will contain Russia. Examples? Helsinki Accords (1975), Budapest Memorandum (1994), Russian Ukrainian Friedship Treaty (1997), Russia–Chechnya Peace Treaty (1997), NATO-Russia Relations (1997). Chemical Weapons Convention (1997) [in Syria].... the naive German-French initiated 'Minsk agreements' (2014/15). Each of these treaties and conventions was broken by Russia. Even after the Crimean War in 1856, there was the Paris Peace Treaty, which banned all warships in the Black Sea. Unilaterally broken by Russia in 1870.

As long as Russia only respects international law, as in past centuries, when it doesn't interfere with its interests, nothing will change. The major European (imperial) powers frequently acted in the same way until the beginning of the 20th century (EDIT: German Empire; Italy until 1944/45). Russia has not yet entered the 20th or 21st century. The way there is difficult. "Educating" a backward imperial power with nuclear weapons is .... difficult.
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Message 2126004 - Posted: 25 Sep 2023, 9:38:04 UTC
Last modified: 25 Sep 2023, 9:41:48 UTC

Orcs: I don't like the general use of this term. I understand that Ukrainians, facing a war of extermination, use this term indiscriminately. War atrocities leave those affected numb. We should avoid it. The term implies that all ordinary Russian soldiers are stupid, brutal killers who lack all humane traits. It assumes that these deficits are genetically determined, that they cannot do anything else, that it's their destiny. No, they are mostly poor pigs who are abused by their officers and by a criminal regime. They have few options to stay alive. Giving up and defecting: difficult when there are enough brainwashed people in their own ranks who would rather perish than give up in a hopeless situation. Withdrawal: impossible if there are barrier troops with the task to kill them. I can live with the term 'orcs' for the perpetrators of Izyum, Butcha, etc. They were definitely not humans, but animals.

Just what do you call admirals and generals in the Russian Navy or Air Force who gave orders to launch rockets and cruise missiles from warships or strategic bombers into residential areas and high-rise districts? They know exactly the inaccuracy of these weapon types. These aren't stupid creatures incapable of reflection, but rather highly educated people who come from a degenerate selection of elites. They're not orcs, they're much worse.
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Message 2126014 - Posted: 25 Sep 2023, 13:08:24 UTC - in response to Message 2125948.  
Last modified: 25 Sep 2023, 13:35:42 UTC

... But if warfare is inevitable...
With Putin's Russia, we forever have a series of forever wars...

And note the increasing tally of "Frozen Wars" that Putin's Russia still perpetuates.
There's one precondition to each of Russia's wars and "frozen conflicts": a moderately strong, courageous victim. Russia respects power, nothing else. Russia's self image since centuries: Its destiny is to expand its superior society and culture ... as far as possible (not entirely dissimilar to the former French or British Empires [I don't intent insulting French or Brits here...]). There are many Russian sayings: "Russia has no borders", "Russia's borders are safe if there are Russian soldiers on both sides" (only surrounded by Russian controlled dominions). After WW2 they didn't attempt to move Norway's borders as FDR (Roosevelt) paid particular attention in negotiations. They respected the Finn's power after the costly Winter War. They respected Swedish defensive power and its carefully planned strategic infrastructure. In the past they respected the German and Austria-Hungary Empires' power, Persia (Iran) too. Today they also respect China, Japan. All other (weaker) neighbours of Russia had been either assimilated into Russia's Empire (eventually collaborating with respected powers to swallow them). Russia respects Turkey---since its NATO accession---never before. Modern Russia then developed the strategy to lock up unruly neighbours, staging frozen conflicts, to clean up resistance later. For a long time that looks way more civilized in world's newspapers, TV, social media than leveling Grosny/Chechnya in the 1990s. Frozen conflicts keep competing power blocs at bay and prevent them from generating wealth (without Russia benefiting) through investment and trade. Russia's sphere is not precisely defined, but potentially infinite (westward to Lisbon (Portugal) as Russian's like to say). But Russia never was nor ever will be a true sea power. That's why they abandoned all early settlements in America (Alaska, California) and hesitated with overseas colonization attempts (e.g. Hawaii, Africa).

The takeaway from this is simple: Either you are as weak as the less developed Central Asian states (e.g. Kyrghyztan, Uzbekistan) and submit to Russia's will. Or you are so strong that Russia respects you. If you, as a close neighbour (and Russia alone defines proximity), do not belong to either group, you are doomed. Ohh, there's another option: Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is moderately strong but the centerpiece of China's trade development plans. Nowhere else did Russia withdraw so quickly after an intervention few years ago.

Similarly, we have a forever war with Jinping and his China. So far, that continues with the games of inflicting a thousand skirmishes against the world whilst China arms up to ultimately "do a Hitler". Note we already have genocide ongoing in China, multiple times over. Open conquests come next.
Until now, I don't see war. I see an aggressive policy. I hope that China's thousands of years of strategic wisdom is still present among some influential elites to not start unnecessary wars because they are so convinced of their own superiority, which will only create misery, sacrifice and social regression.

And appeasement never works.
+1

The way out?...
Wisdom, prudence and a mutually accurate, ideology-free understanding of the history of all involved countries and their motivations.
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Message 2126020 - Posted: 25 Sep 2023, 14:49:38 UTC

PooTin's war criminals will soon feel more pain.

US Cluster ATACMS Could Be on Ukraine Battlefields 'Next Week'.

.....Briefings with senior lawmakers "helped the House and Senate foreign relations and armed services committees better understand what the family of cluster munitions for howitzers and HIMARS was all about," Rice said.

"I was told by a ranking member that it allowed a compromise. Previously they were under the belief the choice was binary—either all in with 190-mile ATACMS with unitary warhead, or nothing."

The M26 and M26A1 rockets are fired from the HIMARS and other Western-supplied multiple launch rocket systems from six-rocket pods. The larger ATACMS M39 is fired as a single rocket using a different pod mounted on the same vehicles.

"Giving them the 20-, 28-, and 100-mile range cluster options made a perfect compromise," Rice added. "The three M26, M26A1 and M39 are all 'need to have'" weapons for the Ukrainians, he said. "I believe they will choose M26, M26A1 and M39 as a compromise for the 190-mile ATACMS."

Rice said that American cluster munition rockets slated for disposal but not yet destroyed can be quickly put into Ukrainian use.

"They are scheduled to be destroyed, so they have a book value of $0," he said. "Actually, the value is negative since the cost of destroying is significant versus shipping to Ukraine. So, the Republicans who don't want to spend on Ukraine can't really argue. It's lethal and it's free."
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Message 2126030 - Posted: 25 Sep 2023, 20:48:30 UTC

Orcs are a good name for these war criminal monsters.

United Nations investigation finds Russia tortured Ukrainians to death, raped women.

Russian occupiers tortured Ukrainians so brutally that some of their victims died and families were forced to listen as they raped women next door, a United Nations-mandated investigative body has found.......
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Message 2126038 - Posted: 26 Sep 2023, 1:14:22 UTC - in response to Message 2126004.  

Orcs is not wrong. Unless you want to call them brown shirts. They do as they are spoon fed and have no capacity to reason.

The ones that do are running away as fast as they can figure out how.
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Message 2126051 - Posted: 26 Sep 2023, 10:50:58 UTC - in response to Message 2126020.  
Last modified: 26 Sep 2023, 10:55:01 UTC

PooTin's war criminals will soon feel more pain.

US Cluster ATACMS Could Be on Ukraine Battlefields 'Next Week'.
Richard wrote:
Cluster munitions have a different purpose, and are used against lower-grade targets closer to the front line, both physically and by damaging morale. And they don't discriminate between military and civilian victims.
'Pain'. I think it won't be the type of pain Richard describes. These ATACMS rockets will supposedly force Russia to withdraw all of its air defense and electronic warfare assets, its logistics hubs far away from the front lines. Not only out of HIMARS range (80km?), but far back into Russia or Southern Crimea. The affected area by a single ATACMS warhead is also larger.

Unfortunately, after the war, unexploded bomblets will endanger generations of Ukrainians. The proportion of unexploded is certainly lower compared to Russian ones. Ukrainians don't have the luxury to choose surgically precise arms, not endangering people, saving the environment. If they had this choice before the war, Russia would never have attacked.

So, we are partly to blame for believing that only treaties ensure peace, while Ukraine was denied any kind of arms supply until few weeks before the war. The German political mantra, repeated a thousand times: "There are no military solutions.", which meant: no arms supply, not a single bullet. European leaders (not Polish or Baltic) were convinced any arms shipments would immediately provoke Russia to attack. President Obama thought that way. He publicly ridiculed Russia's military capacity. He was right about threats to US or NATO, but ignoring Georgia, Ukraine, ... Russia's deep influence within the former Ukrainian military leadership weakened its military for a decade to the point vastly inferior to Russia. This extreme imbalance enabled the war.

Now politicians have to discuss endlessly whether to supply a few dozen dirty, unethical ATACMS cluster weapons. I wish those responsible in Europe and America back in 2007...2012 would question their policies back then and publicly admit today: We were wrong. We made strategic mistakes. But such honesty cannot be expected.

It's a shame that there's a political discussion: delivery of ATACMS saves disposal costs. That may be so. Better to talk internally, not in public to convince stubborn MPs and senators. Embarrassing.
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Message 2126176 - Posted: 28 Sep 2023, 21:49:13 UTC

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Message 2126323 - Posted: 1 Oct 2023, 9:59:38 UTC

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Message 2126350 - Posted: 2 Oct 2023, 1:13:02 UTC

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Message 2126360 - Posted: 2 Oct 2023, 11:59:10 UTC - in response to Message 2126323.  
Last modified: 2 Oct 2023, 12:58:06 UTC

Another headache for Meester PooTin
a bit offtopic.... more generally "Russia in the 21st century"... anyway.

It's a very interesting article. An extensive recipe is described, the path to total collapse of Russia into anarchy. There is a society that has been characterized by excessive violence for centuries, by serfdom, by constant misery of the peasants, where at all levels the physically strong are seen as powerful, while the weak or timid have to subordinate themselves. Strength, assertiveness and the use of fists regulate conflicts in small groups. You can see it most extreme in the well-known and widely accepted practices within the military, the oppression, torture, the tormenting of the younger by the older ones... Even a separate term was coined: Dedovshchina. Then there's the prison culture which permeates society deeply. Why? I read somewhere that one third (!!!) of male Russians are either in prison or have previously served a sentence. Even in everyday life, a knife is quickly drawn in disputes; violence against woman, girlfriends, wives. The highest divorce rates, widespread alcoholism and more recently: mass drug abuse. These social behavioral anomalies already existed back then in the USSR.

So, in such a country they have an excessively large police force (compared to international standards) which is supposed to ensure order. But pay of ordinary officers is so low that they would earn more as taxi drivers or working in supermarkets. That results in widespread corruption, bribery, favors, only personal contacts count. Now we're learning that many cops only stay as police officers because it protects them from being drafted into the meat grinder in Ukraine. After the war, hundreds of thousands of soldiers traumatized by war cruelties will return all over Russia, as well as murderers, criminals and psychopaths who regained freedom as Wagner killers. Unregistered assault rifles, grenades... what formidable job prospects for cops.

Russia is a self-proclaimed "Federation" in its propaganda only. Which federal, regional authorities are there that collect own taxes, finance own police forces or are allowed to follow own regional policies, which may disagree with central power, that is: Which are allowed to act independently? Whenever a local problem occurs somewhere in the deep province with garbage disposal, hospitals, condition of roads, whatever.... all the Russian peasants there cry out for Tsar Putin to help. Everything depends entirely on Moscow. It has always been and cannot be any different. The alternative: state collapse, division into regional power blocs. Clear vibes of 1917 and 1991... The clock is ticking.
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