Who do you believe when watching and listening to reporters in Russia and the Ukraine? I see reports that the Ukrainians are loosing badly while others say Russia is on the brink of defeat.

Difficult for any reporter to assess the situation. Propaganda is part of the game for each side, I assume. I don't believe any reporter because they invest too little time in gathering information, double-checking it and deriving reasoned opinions. The news business is short-lived.

But there are some experts (not journalists) who analyze all publicly available information and who do lots of calculations (the same thing intelligence services do in secret).

See:

Putin's army destroyed by his own 'Maskirovka' | Philip Ingram
wrote:

... Putin's Maskirovka deception tactics have made his own army decompose, former intelligence officer Philip Ingram tells...

That gives a good insightful summary of the ongoing 'information game' and some of the pitfalls...

Pootin may well have already lost due to his very own 'Maskirovka' that he has long used as a weapon...

It's 'just' a question of how many people die as a consequence of meeting the real reality...


Stay safe folks!
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

I believe each sees an area of a few hundred square meters and the fog of war obscures anything distant.

There are also people who say there's no longer a 'fog of war' in the era of smart phones, social media, and Starlink terminals.

In a sea of generative AI, the fog is even more dense.

In a sea of generative AI, the fog is even more dense.

That is soon to come with great consequence...


Here in "The West" (rather than "Maskirovka") we use:

Marketing.


Enjoy?
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

I can't see what the problem is. PooTin's orcs are using them constantly on Ukraine soil so why can't the Ukrainians use them to clear those orc trenches on Ukraine soil. And neither country has signed up not to use them.

Tortured path to US decision to send Ukraine cluster munitions.

And what are you going to use those stockpiles for anyway while other ammo is in short supply? It's 1 way of disposing of them once and for all.

Things are not going PooTin's way.

Maps Show Where Russia Gained, Lost Territory Since Start of Ukraine War.

Russian general reported killed in Ukraine attack.

Russian commander killed while jogging may have been tracked on Strava app.

Russia Has 'Precious Little' Reserve Strength Left: U.K. Defense Secretary.

Sweden Joining NATO Is a Nightmare for Russia's Baltic Sea Fleet.

Russia's 'Muted' NATO Response Contradicts Reality of Setbacks: ISW.

China's Role in PooTin's War Might Be Backfiring.

Wagner has reportedly handed over its weapons to Russia's military. What's next for the mercenary group?

Report claims Russian general sacked for criticism of war effort in Ukraine: Soldiers 'stabbed in back'.

Well Zelenskyy says Russia ‘investing everything’ to stop Ukraine push, but PooTin's orcs in all those trenches throughout western Ukraine are going to be in for a hard time as the Ukraine receives cluster munitions, pledges limited use as Russia threatens to use similar banned weaponry which is a pretty hollow threat considering that they've been using them since almost the beginning of the war.

And is PooTin accepting responsibility for Wagner's war crimes?
PooTin Says Wagner Group 'Does Not Exist,' Rejected Offer to Keep Fighting.

Meanwhile PooTin's orcs seem to be on the move or getting ready to do so.
Russia withdraws almost all its military from Belarus, border guards report.
Russian Forces 'Scrambling' To Keep Crimea Control.

And if PooTin isn't losing senior military staff in his war he's also sacking a lot for telling him the real facts (he certainly can't have an endless supply of them).
Russian general dismissed after criticizing leadership.
Russian General's Dismissal Reveals 'New Level of Concern' on Military: ISW.

PooTin keeps on proving how much of a lying hypocrite that he really is.
Asserts ‘Right’ to Use Cluster Bombs While Denying He Has.

Considering the hundreds of pictures that have come out of the Ukraine like this since his criminal war started.



Meanwhile PooTin ditches yet another high ranking office. How many does he have left?
Russia 'Fires' Another Commander as Part of 'Ongoing Purge'.

As discomfort grows amongst Russians.
Ukrainian Attacks 'Deep Inside Russia' Will Increase, Putin Ally Warns.

Though Zelensky will have a problem to solve.
Ukraine Mulls Crimea Conundrum: 'You Cannot Punish Everyone'.

And while we're sending another 30 Bushmasters to the cause I have to wonder about these Hawkei vehicles that Zelensky so desparately wants and if there is some kind of brake problem with them that French, U.S. and our experts can't fix then why have a thousand already coming off the production line and why can't the Ukrainian experts have a go at the problem with a couple of dozen of them?
Thales in Australia completes the 1000th Hawkei.

The bridge gets hit again.

A bridge linking the Russian mainland to Russian-occupied Crimea has been rocked by blasts, killing at least two people.

The bridge linking the Russian mainland to Russian-occupied Crimea has been damaged by blasts.

Traffic along the Russian-built bridge that links the Crimea and the Krasnodar region was halted after an “emergency”, officials and state media confirmed on Monday.

The bridge to Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014, serves as a vital link for transporting supplies to Russian soldiers in Ukraine.....

Wow, see video in Wiggo's post at 0:28 min. Two of four lanes are destroyed again. I'm no civil engineer, but I assume, you can't simply lift up such a bridge span collapsed this way, relocated at least a meter vertically. I assume it has to be replaced (months closed). Somebody really ruined the holiday season for many thousands of Russians again. That's quite unfriendly to them. Most of them can't afford holidays at Turkish coastlines.

[EDIT:]

“Given the current situation, I ask residents and guests of the peninsula to refrain from travelling through the Crimean bridge and, for security reasons, choose an alternative land route through new regions,” he said in a statement. "

Crazy advice: For security reasons, please use the northern land route through Novorossia (occupied Ukraine). The (shorter) bridges at the northern approaches to the Crimean peninsula are already in shooting range of Ukrainian artillery and rockets. Ukrainians totally destroyed a railway bridge and a railway hub with ammunition storages there, just north of Crimea, only weeks ago.

Last time the bridge was damaged the results were very similar and the repairs took a very short time. I can't help thinking they simply jacked up the dropped bit, poured a bit of concrete in the gaps and hoped for the best.
With debris lying on the "intact" road surface I suspect an explosive device was involved - now was this span one of those weakened by the last attack, so making it more vulnerable to a repeat attack?

---

Bob Smith
Member of Seti PIPPS (Pluto is a Planet Protest Society)
Somewhere in the (un)known Universe?

2022-10-08: three bridge segments (2 of 4 lanes) destroyed; railway bridge heavily damaged.
Several bridge segments were removed and replaced by new structures in January.
2023-02-23: road bridge fully reopened
2023-05-05: railway bridge fully reopened
Road traffic was limited for more than four months, railway transport for seven months. This adds up to a great burden on civilian and military logistics (more than 2m inhabitants (and invaders) of Crimea).

This time the damage is less extensive. A bridge segment at a another location (compare: short bridge supports; roadway low over the sea) was attacked. But again half of the lanes are destroyed. There are two separate bridge structures for two lanes each. It is not possible to switch from one bridge to the other over the entire length of the bridge. In order to work on the damaged area, one of the two intact lanes was reserved. So, only one of four lanes is available now, alternating in both directions. The proposed alternative by authorities via the northern land link is insufficient and not safe (UA artillery). There had been long traffic jams, chaos, standstill. The bridge was attacked right in the middle of the Russian summer holidays. Many vacationers went to Crimea (propaganda promoted it), many arriving, many departing (no civilian air traffic due to the war). Maximum chaos. Psychological warfare?

I assume with the British StormShadow missiles, Ukraine already owns weapons to completely destroy the main arch bridges. Apparently they still prefer the torture of a thousand cuts. I think it's getting harder and harder for Putin's propaganda.

Actually both sides of the bridge were damage and while most focused on the canted damaged section what a lot missed is that there is now a good 1 foot step down on the other side closing it in both directions.

... Except... Not quite so for those Peskov-pesky Russians:


Ukraine war: Russia says Crimean bridge partially open to cars again
wrote:

... Vehicles were using a single lane of the bridge across the Kerch Strait, an official said, posting clips...

... Ukraine was attacked by a wave of Russian missiles overnight - including at the port of Odesa, with missile debris causing damage to the port and private homes, according to the state administration.

Russia's defence ministry said it was a "revenge strike"...

... he hoped two-way traffic could be restored by mid-September. Russia's transport ministry says the bridge's supports were not damaged in the attack...

... The bridge's parallel railway line seems not to have been damaged...

... Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was no connection between the incident and Russia's decision to suspend its participation in a deal allowing Ukraine to ship out grain through the Black Sea. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said hundreds of millions of people facing hunger around the world would "pay the price" for Russia's withdrawal from the deal...

Unfortunately, all the Russian spokespersons have long ago lost any credibility. How do you know they are lying? Very easy that one: They have their mouth open...

Stay safe folks!
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

I'm not so sure that many would be keen travel over a section of bridge that has not only dropped by 30cm, but also moved 1-1.5m sideways, with only only road base ramp to level things out.

Though it is causing problems at another bridge.

Fact Check: Is This a Real Video of a Traffic Jam of People Fleeing Crimea in July 2023? Yes it is.

Now if the Ukrainians take out the Chonhar bridge then that'll really cause some panic.

I'm not so sure that many would be keen travel over a section of bridge that has not only dropped by 30cm, but also moved 1-1.5m sideways, with only only road base ramp to level things out.

Wow!!! I completely missed this fact, only heard Peskov's reassuring statement (vehicles use single lane). What forces move such a bridge section 1...1.5 meters sideways... Incredible. They talk about ship drones. But such drones are either small (~10m) and slow or much of their mass is camouflaged under water (some kind of submarine unable to dive). Such drones can certainly rip up any ship's hull if exploded nearby. But lifting bridge sections weighting thousands of tons, situated many meters above sea level? ... very strange event. Would be interesting to learn who did this and how after the war.

Now if the Ukrainians take out the Chonhar bridge then that'll really cause some panic.

They already attacked this bridge crossing Chonhar Strait in June disabling it for eleven days until July 3. The next attack will not be long in coming.

The Russians are always so oddly confident. When the Crimea Bridge was completed, they immediately scrapped or sold the previous ferries crossing the Strait of Kerch. When the bridge was first damaged in 2022 they used a couple of primitive little car ferries as a replacement, where cars and trucks go up forwards and down backwards. Takes forever. The daily transport capacity was completely insufficient. Trucks were parked on every available concrete space in Crimea and mainland Russia. Truck logistics collapsed for months almost completely. Looked like port of Dover in the first weeks of Brexit. Compare this with e.g. the Fehmarnbelt (17km/11mi) in the Baltic Sea between Germany and Denmark, which connects the continent to Scandinavia (DE<-->DK<-->SE): Four large double-ended ferries run every 30 minutes 24hours/7days. Vehicles roll straight up, straight down in many lanes. Ferries don't have to turn around in ports. But Russians don't need modern ferries. They have their mighty Putin Bridge.

I guess if you build a bridge across an international state border, you should first negotiate a treaty with the other side... if not... strange things happen...

Wow!!! I completely missed this fact, only heard Peskov's reassuring statement (vehicles use single lane). What forces move such a bridge section 1...1.5 meters sideways... Incredible. They talk about ship drones. But such drones are either small (~10m) and slow or much of their mass is camouflaged under water (some kind of submarine unable to dive). Such drones can certainly rip up any ship's hull if exploded nearby. But lifting bridge sections weighting thousands of tons, situated many meters above sea level? ... very strange event. Would be interesting to learn who did this and how after the war.

You have to remember that bridges are designed to bear heavy loads, but are very prone to lifting forces from below, and the sea drones that the Ukrainians are using are modified jet skis 3-4m in length which are very fast, very maneuverable and can carry a very decent payload and that is the result of 2 of them going off under the low point of the bridge where the water surface is only a several metres below.


Anyhow the Ukraine has certainly turned its attention on Crimea.
Crimea Explosions Force Russia To Evacuate Thousands of People.
Did Ukraine Strike Crimea Base With Storm Shadow Missiles? What We Know.

Though PooTin's orcs have retaliated.
Russia's Odesa Blitz 'Revenge' for Kerch Bridge Strike.

But his orcs know that they're in the meat grinder.
Russia Loses 470 Soldiers and 31 Artillery Systems in a Day.

While PooTin continues lobbing his missiles about he still faces other problems.

Russia Uses Charity Donations To Buy Body Bags for War.

Russia's Left With 'Last Resort' Recruits After Military Losses.

Wagner Commander Reveals Number of Mercenaries Killed in Ukraine.

I doubt that Xi will be happy about this either.

Chinese consulate damaged in Russian attack on Ukraine's Odesa.

Meanwhile PooTin's Navy Parade Preparations Hint at Drone Attack Fears as the Ukraine to consider ships sailing to Russian or occupied ports as military targets.

PooTin continues with his B.S. as his orcs keep on failing.

PooTin hosts Belarus leader, calls Ukraine's counter-offensive a failure.

Russian Army To Take Hit From 'Game-Changing' Weapons.

As he seems intent on starting WWIII.

Tensions Heat Up Between Russia and Poland.

But he's running out of orcs fast.

PooTin Raises Elderly Army as Ex-Serviceman Up to 70 Deemed Eligible.

Just like his loser of a buddy Donny, PooTin wants to bring down his own country as he continues to lose as well.

The latest in PooTin's criminal war.

Russian Missile Strikes Continue to Hammer Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces press southward, say strategic village recaptured from Russians.

Ukraine's sappers advance slowly through Russian minefields.

Ukraine's Counteroffensive Push South Explained.

Chechen Soldier Hits Comrade with RPG in 'Rambo' Moment Gone Wrong.

It's past time to get those F-16's and F/A-18's to the Ukraine.