The Ukraine Crisis

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Scrooge McDuck
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Message 2113913 - Posted: 1 Feb 2023, 16:05:02 UTC - in response to Message 2113546.  
Last modified: 1 Feb 2023, 16:08:30 UTC


How long yet can Pootin remain blind to how he is making war against the entire rest of the world?

The entire rest of the world? Until now the war is against Ukraine only.

Only the western bloc opposes Putin. The rest of the world is passively watching how this will play out (many also suffering from high LNG prices). Some (Iran & Co.) believe they have to help Putin with the atrocities. What is Western support? Ammunition and a few dozen heavy weapons from own stocks. Russia has its own defense industry working 24/7 again. Certainly no high-tech weapons are produced there under sanctions, but significant numbers of artillery, tanks, mortars, etc. Does Europe still have an armaments industry with significant production capacities at all? Or is it not just (highly specialized) armaments manufacturers today who produce the smallest amounts of high-tech with a lot of manual work that has long delivery times. This war is wearing down the heavy armaments of both sides faster than it can be replaced. Above all, faster than the West can replace Ukraine's material, it seems. Is it (1) fear of Russian nuclear threats, (2) a lack of political will, or (3) the deep background knowledge of Western intelligence services about limited Russian resources that leaves the West in the belief that its limited involvement is sufficient? I have no guess.

But (as a German) there is the historical knowledge that a fascist, totalitarian state is able to use all of its resources (human lives, industry, raw materials) ruthlessly for years to pursue an ideologically justified war aim, without any resistance from the own people to fear.

As long as Putin has the prospect of winning against limited Western support in a long war of attrition, or at least securing parts of his conquests through further "treaties" (Minsk 3.0 etc.), he will carry on and his mafia partners will not overthrow him.

Can reason ever set in with Putin? That war is madness, most of the world now sees him as a war criminal? Can he stop it, withdraw? He wouldn't survive that. It would implode the centralized Russian state structure, way more chaotic than it was in 1991. So he keeps going. The West must agree on how the war should end and show the commitment to achieve that. This cannot be seen until now. How will it turn out? Unknown.
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Message 2113914 - Posted: 1 Feb 2023, 16:34:07 UTC - in response to Message 2113913.  
Last modified: 1 Feb 2023, 16:37:50 UTC

Any science for telling, also for meaning, except also Politics.

Except for that, he could still go for president when still only name.

You know, the Chinese could be still having wrong eyes for seeing, except only looking down.
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Message 2113915 - Posted: 1 Feb 2023, 16:36:57 UTC

It is such a terrible misery. A failure of so many (I also mean German politicians) that it could come to this. Just thinking about it tears you apart. Hopefully it ends as soon as possible, but in a state that allows for lasting peace, not foreshadowing a continuation war some years later as in 2014. I see all the Ukrainian refugees here in my city, meet them in school, kindergarten: so many children, their mothers, fewer older women, older men. They care a lot about education for their kids, look for support every day, put pressure for more language courses... They just want to live. It makes me deeply sad.
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Message 2113916 - Posted: 1 Feb 2023, 16:39:20 UTC - in response to Message 2113915.  

Give an excuse for a future war, will you?
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Message 2113922 - Posted: 1 Feb 2023, 18:42:35 UTC - in response to Message 2113916.  

Give an excuse for a future war, will you?

No! There is no excuse for starting a war, for either side. But one side has initiated the conflict militarily on several occasions since 2012 (and before in other regions of the former USSR). A war is going on, now. It will end. Hopefully with a lasting peace.

I meant the Franco-German diplomatic efforts for the ceasefire in the Donbas in 2014, so called "Minsk protocols". These have not achieved peace. Because the approach was naive. The negotiations and the resulting protocol ignored the cause of the conflict---Putin and Russia's quest for restoration of the Russian Empire. Instead, insurgents from imaginary People's Republics (Luhansk and Donetsk) were the signing parties, not Russia. German Chancellor Merkel said in retrospect that her treaty would at least have bought Ukraine time (to prepare for the war). Credible or cheap excuse for a diplomatic failure - it doesn't matter.
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Message 2114337 - Posted: 8 Feb 2023, 23:43:04 UTC
Last modified: 8 Feb 2023, 23:57:28 UTC

"How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipelines" --- by Seymour Hersh (2023-02-08)
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream


  • covert subsea operation by CIA and U.S. Navy
  • planned, prepared and carried out from Norway; in cooperation with Norwegian Navy, Norw. Secret Service
  • German Chancelor Scholz: was "part of the U.S. team"---he knows
  • High ranks in Danish and Swedish Navy informed in advance on subsea operations to suppress monitoring
  • no evidence on sea ground, no traces aiming at the U.S.


Sources? Evidence? Only the author's reputation: Seymour Hersh and his sources within the U.S. administration

[EDIT:]That's material for another Tom Clancy novel and a Hollywood movie like "The Hunt for Red October" starring Sean Connery...
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Message 2114339 - Posted: 9 Feb 2023, 0:30:16 UTC - in response to Message 2114337.  
Last modified: 9 Feb 2023, 0:31:14 UTC

Sources? Evidence? Only the author's reputation: Seymour Hersh and his sources within the U.S. administration


His reputation is not so good; while he has been involved in some good findings, some of his publications such as this rely on anonymous sources with no further evidence to back them up, so are indistinguishable from (admittedly well-written) fiction.

I would classify this entire story as such, at least until corroborating evidence emerges, were it not for one detail: the well-publicized on-the-record statement from President Joe Biden exactly one year ago (no coincidence I think!) stating that "If Russia invades... again, then there will be [no] longer Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." and "I promise you we will be able to do it."

Not really evidence, but even an implication from that high up may be worth something...
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Message 2114340 - Posted: 9 Feb 2023, 0:44:35 UTC

Only the author's reputation:
Seymour Hersh

I wouldn't say that his reputation is all that good as he has produced some greatly fanciful stories in his time and I certainly would class this as 1 of them.
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Message 2114347 - Posted: 9 Feb 2023, 2:56:19 UTC - in response to Message 2114339.  
Last modified: 9 Feb 2023, 3:03:09 UTC

... were it not for one detail: the well-publicized on-the-record statement from President Joe Biden exactly one year ago (no coincidence I think!) stating that "If Russia invades... again, then there will be [no] longer Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." and "I promise you we will be able to do it."
At the same press conference the German chancellor answered vaguely in German and some final statements in English, which was also for his audience at home. But directly afterwards he gave an interview at CNN's "The Lead" in English only. There he said, asked for Biden's statement:

[...] "You can be absolutely sure, that Germany will be together with all its allies and especially the U.S.; that we take the same steps. There will be no differences in that situation." [...]

Scholz couldn't be more clear. He's always extremely cautious in public statements, never clear. Because he is a weak chancellor. He is not, as usual for a chancellor, the party leader of his Social Democrats (SPD). His party didn't want him (not leftist enough). But later Scholz didn't contradict Biden's statement or attempted to downplay it somehow. And he never, in any German language interview or press statement was this clear to 100% agreeing to the U.S. position. German journalists were astonished after that CNN interview and they joked, they only want to interview Scholz in English in the future. Scholz knew that Merkel's former energy policy (which was also his own parties' policy for decades) completely failed. Nord Stream (1 & 2: all four pipes) was dead from the moment Putin used it as a weapon against us by throttling the throughput, spreading fear, and presenting a lame excuse every day on damaged turbines... or technical problems.

But at this moment, a year ago, the majority of Germans, of Scholz voters, and most of his parties representatives were absolutely convinced of their romantic memories that Russia was, is, and will be THE RELIABLE gas supplier since the 1970ies. Still today the majority of people think, it was the former SPD chancellor Brandt and his aide Bahr who broke the russian iceberg with their "Ostpolitik" and "change through trade" which first allows for a German-Russian understanding and finally leads to USSR's approval of German reunification. Until today the Left, the Liberals and increasingly younger conservatives deny, it was Reagans arms race which weakend the USSR so severly, to open up a short time frame of kindness, understanding, and cooperation. Russia is the reliable energy supplier---that was the position of all political parties and of the industries' CEOs within Germany. And it is still the position of some heads of federal states today (e.g. SPD-led Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where Gazprom may bribed them all???) and CDU-led Saxonia whose head has long been pushing for sanctions to be lifted from Russia and personally visited Putin in Moscow. He fears the strong (MAGA-like) populist party AfD (which is 100 % pro russia, pro Putin).

From a German point of view, Hersh's "story" is consistent and compelling. Anyway, if it was Biden's "balls" who decided this, I had to congratulate him. From time to time, we Germans need some kick in the a§§, to get back on track.
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Message 2114352 - Posted: 9 Feb 2023, 6:27:19 UTC

A bombshell report claiming the United States was responsible for the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines last year has been blasted as “utterly false”.

.....Hersh, who won awards for his reporting on My Lai massacre during the Vietnam War and the Abu Ghraib prison scandal in Iraq, has also attracted controversy in recent years.

Critics have accused Hersh of spreading “conspiracy theories” and relying too heavily on anonymous sources.
His source this time was likely a PooTin agent.
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Message 2114384 - Posted: 9 Feb 2023, 17:47:42 UTC - in response to Message 2114352.  

His source this time was likely a PooTin agent.
An unproven claim. Maybe. Or there is more to it? Possible. We eventually find out in the future (when credible evidence emerges). Or not (if silence remains).
Hersh gave an argument, to think about:

When the Washington Post finally published it (his report on My Lai), they littered it with Pentagon denials

In 2004, after I published the first stories about ... Abu Ghraib, a Pentagon spokesman responded by calling my journalism "a tapestry of nonsense." (He also said I was a guy who "threw a lot of crap against the wall" and "expects someone to peel off what’s real."
Hersh's previous revelations took time for denial to become pointless. Anyway, the pipelines are gone. That fact changed course of events, less so who's the culprit.
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Message 2114407 - Posted: 9 Feb 2023, 23:08:45 UTC

It seems that PooTin private army is running out of criminals to use as cannon fodder, war criminals and forced workers.

Wagner Group's Ominous Recruiting Tactics Revealed As Convict Pool Dries Up.

Resulting in.

Wagner Group No Longer Recruiting Prisoners, Prigozhin Says.

But there could also be another reason.

Wagner Troops Filmed Beating Their Commander With Shovels.

As PooTin's Own Words Used Against Him in Ukraine War Debate.

Though all is not peaceful amongst his troops.

Russia Pulls Troops From Front Lines After Soldiers Beaten by Own Allies.

While Japanese Intelligence reports that Russian Generals Killed in War 'Unbelievably High' putting the number at around 20.

Meanwhile it looks like PooTin is an "Indian giver".

Wives of Dead Russian Soldiers Up In Arms As Fur Coat Gifts Taken Back.

And reports are coming in of Russian Army Burning Their Own Dead to Hide Massive Losses.

Then there's this bunch of creeps.

Full List of Republicans Backing Matt Gaetz's Resolution to End Ukraine Aid.

Seeing that they love their assault rifles so much why don't they just go over there and show us how's it done.
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Message 2114416 - Posted: 10 Feb 2023, 0:14:45 UTC - in response to Message 2114407.  

Then there's this bunch of creeps.

Full List of Republicans Backing Matt Gaetz's Resolution to End Ukraine Aid.


... Rep. Charles Lindbergh
Rep. Neville Chamberlain ...
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Message 2114482 - Posted: 11 Feb 2023, 0:38:11 UTC

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Message 2114571 - Posted: 12 Feb 2023, 14:14:19 UTC

Ukraine is not the only target of Pootin's aggression:


Moldovan government resigns in wake of multiple crises
wrote:
Moldova's government has collapsed and its pro-EU prime minister has stepped down after 18 months of political and economic turbulence.

Europe's poorest country was struggling with "multiple crises", outgoing PM Natalia Gavrilita said on Friday. With the war raging in neighbouring Ukraine, Moldova has been facing inflation, high energy prices, a refugee influx and Russian aggression. The news came just hours after Russian missiles flew over Moldovan airspace.

... no one expected it would have to manage "so many crises caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine"...

... An energy crisis was sparked last year when Russia suddenly reduced its gas supplies to Moldova, which relied 100% on Russia for gas. It caused inflation to skyrocket and there was public unrest over the high energy costs.

President Maia Sandu thanked Ms Gavrilita for her "enormous sacrifice and efforts to lead the country in a time of so many crises". "We have stability, peace and development, where others wanted war and bankruptcy," the president said. She has already nominated her former defence adviser Dorin Recean - who is also pro-EU - as the next prime minister...

... Russia had a plan to "destroy" Moldova, according to Ukrainian intelligence. "These documents show who, when and how Russia is going to break democracy of Moldova and establish control," he [Zelensky] told EU leaders at a summit in Brussels. "I immediately warned Moldova about these threats," he added.

Moldovan intelligence services later confirmed they had also identified "subversive activities" aimed at "undermining the state of the Republic of Moldova, destabilizing and violating public order."...



Has Pootin been watching too many "James Bond 007" films and hopes to live out his own version where the baddie of organized crimes wins for once?...

Nasty politics...


All in our only one deadly world,
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Message 2114784 - Posted: 16 Feb 2023, 8:23:26 UTC

Yes a Russian Coup Could Give PooTin Advantages He Desperately Needs and he already has a foothold there, though a Russian Analyst Outlines Wagner's Prigozhin's Threat to PooTin's Power.

And while PooTin has Has 97 Percent of Army Deployed in Ukraine his loses are high as he adopts Wagner's tactic of Attacking 'In Waves' as Spring Offensive Gets Underway which not only depletes his cannon fodder it also depletes Ukrainian ammo.

Mind you a bet that PooTin's war criminals who were manning this contraption got a big surprise.

Russia's Rare Thermobaric Rocket Launcher Taken Out by Ukraine, Video Shows.

They certainly got a warm welcome. LOL

Meanwhile back at home some are getting jittery.

Russians Ask PooTin to Fix Bomb Shelters as Citizens Fear the Worst.

We'll finish off with the BBC taking us Inside a POW camp for Russians in Ukraine, but I bet that you wont see that on PooTin's side.
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Message 2114938 - Posted: 18 Feb 2023, 17:21:48 UTC
Last modified: 18 Feb 2023, 17:22:42 UTC

US: Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine (VP Harris at the Munich Security Conference)

MUNICH (AP) — The United States has determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine, Vice President Kamala Harris said Saturday, insisting that “justice must be served” to the perpetrators.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Harris said the international community has both a moral and a strategic interest in pursuing those crimes, pointing to a danger of other authoritarian governments taking advantage if international rules are undermined.

“Russian forces have pursued a widespread and systemic attack against a civilian population — gruesome acts of murder, torture, rape, and deportation,” Harris said. She also cited “execution-style killings, beatings, and electrocution.”

The Biden administration formally determined last March that Russian troops had committed war crimes in Ukraine and said it would work with others to prosecute offenders. A determination of crimes against humanity goes a step further, indicating that attacks against civilians are being carried out in a widespread and systematic manner.


And I am surprised just how often I am agreeing with Mitch McConnell these days...

Speaking to the security conference Friday morning, McConnell called on European leaders to strengthen their commitment to the trans-Atlantic alliance and emphasized the strength of bipartisan support in Congress for Ukraine.

“I am a conservative Republican from America and I come in peace! Reports about the death of Republican support for strong American leadership in the world have been greatly exaggerated,” he declared.

“Don’t look at Twitter, look at people in power. Look at me and Speaker Kevin McCarthy [R-Calif.]. Look at the top Republicans on the Senate and House committees that handle armed services, foreign affairs, appropriations and intelligence” issues, he said.
...
McConnell pledged that Republican leaders are committed to a strong trans-Atlantic alliance and to helping Ukraine because “America’s own core national interests are at stake” given the ties between American and European security and prosperity.

The GOP leader posted a picture on Twitter of himself and Schumer standing next to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz with the caption: “We’re in a critical moment for American and European commitments to our militaries and our collective defense.”

In a Fox News interview Thursday, McConnell said “defeating the Russians in Ukraine is single most important event going on in the world right now.”

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Message 2115038 - Posted: 21 Feb 2023, 6:38:47 UTC

It seems that all is not well amongst PooTin's war criminals.

Wagner Group Likely 'Cut Off' From Russian Artillery Supply as PooTin's Chef [url=]says he was required to "apologise and obey" in order to secure ammunition for his troops[/url].

As more Elite Russian Brigades become 'Combat Ineffective' After Heavy Losses.

While some Russian Troops Film Appeal to Putin: 'We Do Not Know Who Our Commander Is' and others are just a hazard to themselves and all around them as Russian Soldiers Accidentally Blow Themselves Up Using Cooking Stove.
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Message 2115062 - Posted: 21 Feb 2023, 20:53:58 UTC

I'm surprise that PooTin hasn't pulled off a "red flag operation" there as yet while his puppet in Belarus claims Ukraine army groups have massed at border, risking its security as his "Chef" is still whining on, Wagner owner blasts 'treason' of Russian military chiefs.
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Message 2115064 - Posted: 21 Feb 2023, 21:54:03 UTC
Last modified: 21 Feb 2023, 22:22:43 UTC

Wow:

Biden hails 'rock solid' Nato as Putin blames West for Russia's war
wrote:
Vladimir Putin has sharpened his vitriol towards the West as President Joe Biden, fresh from a visit to Kyiv, praised Western democracy for standing up to naked Russian aggression...


Biden in Ukraine: How the president's surprise visit was kept a secret

Quite an upset to spoil Putin's fantasy speech...


Stay safe folks...
Martin
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