With America and the NATO countries, plus Ukraine, on one side, and Russia on the other, we appear to have two firm rivals.

Russia is uneasy at the way its former constituent Republics, and satellite nations have gone over to NATO, or propose to do so, working right up to its very borders. The Western powers will not agree that Russia should have to right to decide how these now-independent nations should conduct their own international affairs.

Diplomatic negotiations are being conducted this week, to try to resolve this stand-off. The only basis for negotiation appears to lie in the cessation of military maneuvers by both sides, near the NATO/Russia, and Ukraine/Russia borders, and the withdrawal of threatening armaments from the same areas.

This same principle was used to resolve the Cuban Missile Crisis of the early 1960's. The Soviet Union quietly removed its missiles from Cuba, and the United States, even more quietly, removed its missiles from Turkey, in the area near the Soviet Union.

It will be interesting to see, this week, if this sort of solution can, and will be applied in the here and now.

Ukraine is better prepared, both militarily and psychologically, to resist invasion of its territory than in the past. This probably helps explains why Russia has repeatedly allowed the process of diplomacy to continue, after repeatedly making noises about how it seemed pointless to continue along these lines.

The firm reaction in the West, to Russia's military buildup near Ukraine, is also a likely to be deterring Russia's plans.

Diplomacy may still fail, of course. If so, this is likely to happen after the United States, as the leader of NATO, makes a formal, written response to Russia's expressions of concern, next week. If diplomacy does not break down at this point, it opens up the possibility that a series of small concessions by both sides may prevent a new war in Europe.

The recent, seemingly conciliatory language by Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seems to hint that Russia might rather negotiate than invade. Mr. Lavrov said that he and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken agreed that 'it is necessary to have a more reasonable dialog'. He added-- 'I hope the emotions subside a bit'.

As most would know by now is that Putin badly wants his U.S.S.R. back and being a megalomaniac he could just do the irrational thing.

In my books it's 50/50 (good or bad) ATM on how this will turn out.

Yes, the fact that Mr. Putin's deplores the collapse of the Soviet Union is widely known. This happened spontaneously and uncontrollably, during a far more modest plan of liberalization. As an old 'cold warrior' he's bound to think of it as an unfortunate accident. I doubt, though, that he believes that he can reconstitute the old Soviet Union. He seems too canny for that. Too much has occurred in the generation since then to make this a reasonable possibility.

Mr. Putin is plainly interested in continuing to exert an influence in eastern Europe, so as to protect his frontiers. This isn't such an unreasonable goal, really, as long as it's done within the bounds of international law. The reaction of the United States to a military buildup in Cuba by the Soviet Union in the early 1960s seems not too dissimilar to the current situation in Europe. Consider NATOs presence, and potential greater presence at and near Russia's borders.

Of course, Invading another nation to enhance the security of ones own country is illegal. Russia has done this before in Ukraine, repeatedly. It might do so again. Purely practical considerations-- what may be gained or lost in the process-- obviously predominate in Mr. Putin's reckoning , here, rather than ethical or legal principles.

Putin plays a cold hard 'game'. He also directs his few impoverished pieces very shrewdly...

Where else is Putin making some shrewd gains, quietly, while we are all distracted with the overly big display against Ukraine?...


All in our deadly political world,
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

Wow, the Western media generate noise and fog, intense noise and fog... But what is under fog? IMHO, of course.
1. Russia. Really, Russia is not going to start a direct war against Ukraine at all. For almost 8 years, Ukraine has been talking about the war with Russia, but Russia has not come to this war. BTW, Russia it the second trade partner of Ukraine, after China, such strange "war"... Russia moves Russian troops through Russian territory, the goal is simple - to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Russia absolutely does not want the direct military aggression against Ukraine, but it is beneficial for Russia to have that mess as the reason the Ukraine can't join NATO.
2. Ukraine. It is beneficial for Ukrainian authorities to talk about war, this noise distracts Ukrainian people and Western politicians from talking about the ongoing corruption and the deterioration with the human rights in Ukraine.
3. US and NATO. It is beneficial for the West to talk about war, because there is no point for the existence of NATO without inventing threats, and the military-industrial complex use all opportunities that can help to increase funding.

But there is the real danger in perspective. The most probable development of situation is that, if (when) the opportunity arises, Ukraine will launch a big military offensive to the separatists territories. At present, it is not yet quite ready, but the Ukrainian army is gradually strengthening, including through assistance from the West, and over time the Ukrainian authorities will decide to launch a military operation, and this can lead to the very dangerous continuation...

It's already been established that disguised Russian troops are part of the forces occupying the Donbas and Crimean regions of Ukraine. As such, this already amounts to a Russian-Unkrainian war, if one slyly conducted.

Ukraine is a sovereign nation, As such, is does, and should have the right to conduct its own international affairs, and contract alliances, as it sees fit, including NATO.

Russia signed an agreement with its neighbor, some years ago, guaranteeing Ukraine its sovereignty, and its established borders at that time. These borders include the Donbas and Crimea.

It seems reasonable and appropriate that Russia should be concerned with the security issues raised by having a rival alliance on and near its borders. I would hope that the ongoing negotiations between Russia and the West can bear fruit. And that they can arrive at mutually acceptable compromises about military actions and the placement of weapons near the borders of Ukraine, Russia, and the NATO countries.

Some uninformed statements here - from Ukraine being a sovereign nation, to Putin "wants" the USSR back.

First and foremost, Ukraine hasn't been a "sovereign" nation since the United States (under Obama and his 'regime-change' operatives Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt) financed, facilitated, and backed a deadly and armed coup against democratically elected Viktor Yanukovich. The 'F*** the EU!' phone call proved all this. They literally installed a rabidly russophobic Stepan Bandera-loving, neo-Nazi fascist junta that within days, launched an all-out military assault on the breakaway regions in the Donbass. Why they broke away is obvious if you consider the immediate discrimination policies and outlawing of the russian language. They simply said, 'we don't recognize you as the legitimate government since you literally overthrew the sitting president of our country. You basically tore our constitution to shreds'. What was the response from Kiev? They started launching missiles! Putin clearly seeing Crimea as the next target quickly intervened, however, he let those living in Crimea decide for themselves via a people's referendum for self-determination. Of course Putin expected the referendum to go his way since the vast majority were ethnic Russians, but that's neither here nor there.

Since then, the Donbass had been attacked on a daily basis until the Minsk protocol was agreed upon by Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany (the Normandy format), in spite of US disapproval. However, Kiev and the neo-Nazi elements of their military had continued to strike the Donbass which then forced all sides to again sit down and agree to Minsk II. Unfortunately, Kiev and the neo-Nazi militias under their control still continued to bombard Donbass. Kiev's aggression then slowed down under the Trump administration, but picked up again almost immediately after Biden became president. Biden started arming Kiev with billions of dollars worth of "offensive" military weapons & hardware with a declaration of support for Kiev to "take back" Donbass & Crimea (who just want to be left alone) by military force! Russia has been warning since at least since November 2021 that Ukraine was amassing tons of military hardware at the frontline of Donbass, with about HALF of Ukraine's armed forces also on the frontline. Then of course US/EU/NATO tells Kiev they support them to take back the breakaway region by force, and started shipping in even more weapons. It was only then did Russia start mobilizing troops along their borders to 'counter' what they see as a direct threat against the people of Donbass (who want to be left alone) in order to protect them from a possible genocide campaign by Kiev and their Western handlers.

As it stands right now, I think the US is beginning to realize that Russia won't back down to US/NATO aggression because Russia also has a 'R2P' when it comes to their country, allies, and ethnic peoples living next door and abroad. Can you blame them? The US and Kiev with all their talk of a "Russian invasion" or a "Russian false-flag" just screams of desperation for War by the financially bankrupt West (War is a Racket?). As far as Putin wanting the USSR back... did he ever say such a thing? No, he just said the USSR could have been reformed, even in a democratic nature. In other words, it didn't have to die completely. But leave it to the US and its vassal states... *cough* "allies"... to twist his words.

P.S. I haven't been to this site in YEARS and then came here tonight after seeing a headline about black holes. I almost forgot about this site. Funny that my first post in many years had to be about geo-political matters, something I never followed the last time I was here.

Putin now has a significant number of battle groups in Belarus which lies on the northern boarder of Ukraine.

Note the very close dependence of Belarus upon Russia: Belarus Foreign relations


Has the autocrat of Belarus, Lukashenko, outlived his usefulness and Putin has engineered a de facto coupe?...

Note that Lukashenko has long "softened up" his long suffering population for life under a dictatorship and/or occupation force...

Is that scenario a face saving exit strategy for Putin if he is rebuffed from Ukraine?...


Is all this dependent upon how long Ukraine's fields remain a wet muddy quagmire?


All a game of politics?

Stay safe folks!
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

I surmise that Mr. Putin is testing Mr. Biden's, and NATO's resolve in maintaining its current posture in Europe. In the face of that resolve, we see a willingness by Russia to continue negotiating, even after its impossible demands are not met. Sanctions imposed by the West have already had a telling financial effect on Russia. Further sanctions, should Russia invade Ukraine, would be very bad news for them, indeed.

Much more could be accomplished, even from Russia's point of view, by confidence-building compromise. Let the Russia-NATO and Russia-Ukraine border areas be made into very broad demilitarized zones, on either side. That would do more for Russia's security than the dangerous game of invading Ukraine. Let the ethnic Russians in the Donbas have a reasonable degree of autonomy, with official respect for their language and culture, in exchange for living peacefully within the nation of Ukraine.

It's possible that Russia's (and China's) belligerence these days is because they're running out of workers causing their economies to tank.

Russia loses a million people in historic population fall in 2021.

China’s declining population and its new three-child policy.

Both need to find fit and able workers and they don't care where they come from or what it takes to get them.

Putin's belligerence may well be partly fueled by a desperate need for internal resources due to global resources getting impossibly expensive for him due to various sanctions and the plunge of the Ruble...

Putin is also desperate for the use of large dry docks since suffering a few disasters. He now has no facilities to service some of his navy... Ukraine has some beautifully big and very significant shipyards...


Meanwhile, is part of the military games to tempt/tease Putin to launch an attack for which he is almost guaranteed to get bogged down into debilitatingly costly losses?... There is very definitely a trap there to 'expend' his main ground and air forces...


All a dangerously deadly game amongst despots.

And the people on the ground and in the air and on and under the sea are all mere pawns for such despots.


Stay safe folks!
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

All this sabre rattling is really unfortunate. If for no other reason than showing the world that life in Russia is very similar to living in the west "You Tube" has shown me that everyone has a lot to loose if a full on war breaks out in eastern europe.

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Bob DeWoody

My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events.

Think Germany & Japan = WWII

Russia & China will very likely = WWIII

And Kim is just firing off missiles as he thinks that he's being forgotten about amongst the rest of what's going on around the world. ;-)

Yep, the 1st "false flag" operations have been begun. :-(

Massive blasts hit Ukraine after car bomb.

Yep, the 1st "false flag" operations have been begun. :-(

Massive blasts hit Ukraine after car bomb.

US and their Ukrainian marionettes continues provocations.

Oh really? More likely the Russian puppeteer playing games with other people lives as ever.

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Bob Smith
Member of Seti PIPPS (Pluto is a Planet Protest Society)
Somewhere in the (un)known Universe?

Oh really? More likely the Russian puppeteer playing games with other people lives as ever.

No, that sort of provocations is more US style. With the Ukrainian "both left hands". For example, pseudo-shelling of kindergarten, when the CBC video show not broken glass in some windows of that room - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrUHmIm3Xs4

P.S. Really, I don't understand why the "Freedom Convoy" in Canada is not yet shown in mass-media as Putin's plan? One more fake, nothing unusual, Western readers in mass will eat it.

Only one side has a low enough view of human life to fire at a school. Only one side has soldiers who would carry out such an order.

Sorry to disavow you of your lack of knowledge of what's being shown in the news in much of the western press, but we see and read a lot about the so called "freedom convoy" in Canada.
As for your ignorance of the fact that Russia was the country that invaded the eastern part of the Ukraine, has amassed a large military force on three sides of the Ukraine and has publicly threatened to invade the rest of the Ukraine if it has the timerity to join NATO instead of jointing the proto-USSR that Putin and his bullies wants to create.

I would say to both Russia and the USA - get out of Ukraine's back yard and let them determine, without external influence or pressure their own alliances.

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Bob Smith
Member of Seti PIPPS (Pluto is a Planet Protest Society)
Somewhere in the (un)known Universe?