Flight PS752 Tehran-Kyiv

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Richard Haselgrove Project Donor
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Message 2027275 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 9:08:30 UTC - in response to Message 2027273.  

The report is being given prominent coverage in other news outlets too - I think it's an accurate reflection of the current state of play.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/11/iran-admits-shooting-down-ukrainian-airliner-unintentionally
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Message 2027287 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 10:39:47 UTC
Last modified: 11 Jan 2020, 10:49:30 UTC

Professor Jan Hallenberg, security expert at the Foreign Policy Institute, interprets what caused the plane crash in Tehran. The plane's delay in combination with the ongoing conflict with the United States may have laid the foundations for a fateful decision. He believes that the fact that it was a war situation, in which Iran was on the brink of a possible US attack, combined with the late departure of the plane made the mistake possible. According to his guess, it was a mobile unit outside to be able to shoot down aircraft. They probably had a list of aircraft departing from the airport, but when flight PS572 was delayed 45-50 minutes when it lifted, confusion may have arisen.

- There is a plane that they do not have on their list, and then they have 30 - 45 seconds to decide whether to shoot or not in a situation where they expect an American attack. I think it was a mistake simply, says Jan Hallenberg.

The Iranian Air Force's supreme commander has taken full responsibility for the incident, saying he "wished he were dead" when he was notified of the crash.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani confirms on Twitter that the plane was shot down and calls it an "unforgivable mistake".
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Message 2027290 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 11:11:39 UTC - in response to Message 2027287.  
Last modified: 11 Jan 2020, 12:08:00 UTC

BBC staff reporter on the ground in Baghdad: "The 737 was mis-identified as an enemy target [studio says cruise missile] because it banked over a Republican Guard base near the airport".

Edit - corrected location.
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Message 2027293 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 11:33:08 UTC - in response to Message 2027290.  

Yes, the plane banked towards the army base but I think it was after the missile hit. According to some reports the plane tried to return to the airfield.
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Message 2027294 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 11:38:39 UTC - in response to Message 2027293.  

Yes, the plane banked towards the army base but I think it was after the missile hit. According to some reports the plane tried to return to the airfield.

I'll agree with you, that the turn was the result of damage, rather than a deliberate turn by the crew to return.
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Message 2027296 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 12:05:40 UTC - in response to Message 2027294.  

And apparently there were two missiles involved in the incident that could also explain why there are so many videos of the burning plane. It might have been hit by a first missile, then the plane tried to return to the airport and then hit by the second fatal missile.
It is unclear why the person holding the camera was filming at the time, but it is possible that there were two missiles, prompting the decision to start filming for the second strike. The New York Times reported that the person filming started doing so after hearing “some sort of shot fired“.
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Message 2027299 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 12:47:15 UTC - in response to Message 2027296.  
Last modified: 11 Jan 2020, 12:47:50 UTC

And apparently there were two missiles involved in the incident that could also explain why there are so many videos of the burning plane. It might have been hit by a first missile, then the plane tried to return to the airport and then hit by the second fatal missile.
It is unclear why the person holding the camera was filming at the time, but it is possible that there were two missiles, prompting the decision to start filming for the second strike. The New York Times reported that the person filming started doing so after hearing “some sort of shot fired“.

The missiles are not designed to hit the plane. They explode and disintegrate into a ball of shrapnel, that penetrates many parts of the target. It therefore can damage engines, the fuselage, wings and the control surfaces.
Therefore the missile could have exploded on the right hand side of the aircraft. Taken out the engine on that side and damaged the wing and its control surfaces. This would have reduced thrust and lift on the right hand side causing the aircraft to turn right and loose height..
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Message 2027327 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 16:02:58 UTC
Last modified: 11 Jan 2020, 16:07:27 UTC

Iranian Air Force supreme commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh who said in a televised statement that he "wished he was dead" now said at a press conference later, that he requested that all commercial flights in Iran be canceled until the tense situation between the country and the United States eased - but that those in the army who have the power to forward such a request to the government have chosen not to do it.
What's that kind of excuse? I think he now is only trying to save his *ss.

The Iranian Air Force's supreme commander, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, personally takes responsibility for the shooting.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/iransk-tv-planet-skots-ned-av-misstag
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Message 2027331 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 16:43:29 UTC

Insensitive as this may sound, it is not intended.
This incident should provide the spark to force politicians to gain some backbone in demanding that those held in iran on trumped up spying charges to be released.
Sadly, I don't think this country's leaders have any!
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Message 2027343 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 18:36:17 UTC
Last modified: 11 Jan 2020, 18:41:27 UTC

Now even Iranians are very upset. No wonder since almost every victims in the downed plane were Iranian.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/protester-i-iran-efter-flygkraschen-kraver-khameneis-avgang
After Iran today admitted that it accidentally shot down the Ukrainian passenger plane that crashed on Wednesday, hundreds of protesters have stepped out on the streets of the capital Tehran. The protesters demand, among other things, that the country's highest leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei resign.
Pictures posted on social media show that hundreds of people gathered outside Amir Kabir University, shouting slogans that the country's highest spiritual leader should resign.
They have also torn images of general Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone attack last week.
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Message 2027348 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 19:46:19 UTC

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Message 2027364 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 20:50:38 UTC

This little snip really concerns me:
Brig-Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace commander, said a missile operator had acted independently and alone, mistaking the plane for a "cruise missile" as there had been reports that such missiles had been fired at Iran.

The radar signature of a cruise missile is many times smaller than that of a 737, the 737 has a civilian "squawk" identity, there would have been radio traffic between the airport an the 737 from before it left the terminal an probably up to the point of the missile strike, cruise missiles are designed to be all-but invisible on radar, and probably don't give out a "squawk" as doing so would reveal their location What the ***** were the radar operators doing in not seeing, at the very least, the size of the radar signature and flight path of the aircraft (climbing from 0 feet at about 150knotts..... Or is the radar so bad it can't tell the difference is signatures......
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Message 2027368 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 21:38:35 UTC - in response to Message 2027364.  
Last modified: 11 Jan 2020, 21:43:13 UTC

This little snip really concerns me:
Brig-Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace commander, said a missile operator had acted independently and alone, mistaking the plane for a "cruise missile" as there had been reports that such missiles had been fired at Iran.

The radar signature of a cruise missile is many times smaller than that of a 737, the 737 has a civilian "squawk" identity, there would have been radio traffic between the airport an the 737 from before it left the terminal an probably up to the point of the missile strike, cruise missiles are designed to be all-but invisible on radar, and probably don't give out a "squawk" as doing so would reveal their location What the ***** were the radar operators doing in not seeing, at the very least, the size of the radar signature and flight path of the aircraft (climbing from 0 feet at about 150knotts..... Or is the radar so bad it can't tell the difference is signatures......

Remember the radar in question is Soviet. Perhaps the operator only had the targeting radar and not a terminal radar. Targeting radar does not interrogate civilian transponders. Even if the op had a terminal radar, again it does not know about civilian transponders. I'm also sure he didn't have an ADS-b display either.
Now when the Soviet designed the radar, consider its intended use against the USA. It is half a century old, so it was designed to find B-52's. I'm sure it has been updated some to find smaller targets. In the anticipated conflict between the USA and Soviet Union, that would have been a total war. Hitting an airliner would only have been the waste of a missile. US bombers would not have been using a transponder so no use for such a receiver. The system wasn't ever intended to operate in a mixed use airspace environment. And now you know why Russia is selling them off. Hard cash for them to design/build new systems that can operate in a mixed use airspace environment.
However there can be zero excuse for the operator to not have VHF radios tuned to the local approach / departure and tower control frequencies so he has some general idea the targets he is seeing are likely civilian. There is no excuse for him to not have penciled in the SIDs and STARs on his display so he again knows what is likely to be civilian traffic. There is little excuse for him to not have a open line to the civilian ATC facility for coordination. These failures are a level above the operator's rank.
The world needs to set some standards so that every country realizes its duty to protect non combatants.
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Message 2027369 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 21:57:07 UTC - in response to Message 2027364.  
Last modified: 11 Jan 2020, 22:05:39 UTC

What most likely happened is that they got a radar signal from whatever aircraft it is and they decided that it was foe fighter because how it moved and not flying at the times supposed.
Strange because civilian planes always have a transponder signal turned on.
That signal is not detected by radar as far as I know.
But then a foe missile could of course send a fake transponder signal...
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Message 2027371 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 22:09:59 UTC - in response to Message 2027368.  
Last modified: 11 Jan 2020, 22:12:37 UTC

The missile used is most likely a Tor-M1. Named after the great designer Tor. What could possible go wrong?
Or SA-15 Gauntlet as called in NATO. Járngreipr in old Norse, Järngrepp in modern Swedish:)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5aefcpypM0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system
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Message 2027384 - Posted: 11 Jan 2020, 23:38:36 UTC

Confirming my thoughts on my previous post...
Mr Raab said Iran "must stop pursuing a nuclear weapon, end its support for terrorism, and release the foreign nationals and dual nationals it cruelly holds".
...Iran still playing political games
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Message 2027391 - Posted: 12 Jan 2020, 0:16:31 UTC - in response to Message 2027384.  
Last modified: 12 Jan 2020, 0:17:40 UTC

Confirming my thoughts on my previous post...
Mr Raab said Iran "must stop pursuing a nuclear weapon, end its support for terrorism, and release the foreign nationals and dual nationals it cruelly holds".
...Iran still playing political games
And now they start an ugly game... Well perhaps the Iranian government want the war at last...
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Message 2027407 - Posted: 12 Jan 2020, 1:32:43 UTC - in response to Message 2027348.  
Last modified: 12 Jan 2020, 1:33:10 UTC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-51077352/iran-plane-crash-missile-struck-underneath-cockpit-ukraine

The pilots were immediately killed by the first missile explosion.


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Message 2027408 - Posted: 12 Jan 2020, 1:38:43 UTC - in response to Message 2027364.  

This little snip really concerns me:
Brig-Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace commander, said a missile operator had acted independently and alone, mistaking the plane for a "cruise missile" as there had been reports that such missiles had been fired at Iran.

The radar signature of a cruise missile is many times smaller than that of a 737...

Or there was a tired highly stressed 'operator' at the end of a long all-nighter jittery on a hair-trigger instinctive response to anything that appeared on the radar.

And then there was the first flight of the day...



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Message 2027426 - Posted: 12 Jan 2020, 8:27:41 UTC - in response to Message 2027408.  

This little snip really concerns me:
Brig-Gen Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace commander, said a missile operator had acted independently and alone, mistaking the plane for a "cruise missile" as there had been reports that such missiles had been fired at Iran.

The radar signature of a cruise missile is many times smaller than that of a 737...

Or there was a tired highly stressed 'operator' at the end of a long all-nighter jittery on a hair-trigger instinctive response to anything that appeared on the radar.

And then there was the first flight of the day...



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It wasn't the first flight of the day. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/01/10/world/middleeast/iran-tehran-airport-crash-flights.html
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Message boards : Politics : Flight PS752 Tehran-Kyiv


 
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