Acting Navy secretary Thomas Modly has since walked back the claim that Captain Crozier "leaked" the letter to the San Francisco Chronicle, How it got there no one is saying at the moment.

And what do you do when over 100 men have tested positive but those in higher positions say it is only a few dozen. His men seem to think he is the best Captain they've ever had.

And apparently the navy is now scrambling to remove 2,700 personnel from the ship, an act that should have started over a week ago.

2 points, no good deed will go unpunished and only a couple of dozen cases on a fully crewed aircraft carrier is a fully loaded petri dish ready to explode.

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An update:

Half of people with coronavirus have no, or mild symptoms, data shows

About half of people who have the coronavirus show no symptoms, according to data from Iceland, the Italian town of Vo, and the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

The data from those places is of particular interest to researchers because in those places even people without symptoms were tested – which is not the case in the U.S. and most countries, where desperately needed tests are reserved mostly for people who show symptoms.

Cruise ship:

All 3,711 passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship were tested, 712 tested positive, and of those, 331 (46 percent) have never shown outward symptoms, according to Japan’s health agency, which has also been cited by the CDC.

Vo, Italy:

In the small northern Italian town of Vò, where Italy’s first coronavirus death occurred, the entire population of 3,000 people was tested.

“We tested all residents of Vò... including those who did not have symptoms,” two Italian researchers wrote in the Guardian. The researchers were surprised to find that “a significant proportion of the population, about 3 percent, had already been infected – yet most of them were completely asymptomatic.”

“This allowed us to quarantine people before they showed signs of infection and stop the further spread of coronavirus [in Vò],” the researchers noted.

Iceland:

In Iceland, more than 6 percent of the entire country has been tested, by far the largest proportion in the world. Nearly half of those tests have been done as part of a “screening program," in which anyone who asks for a test can get one, even if they have mild or no symptoms.

“Of the 5,502 samples taken in the screening program between March 13-19, 50 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2... 66 percent of those individuals reported symptoms, such as coughing and body ache,” Kjartan Hreinn Njálsson, at the Icelandic Directorate of Health, told Fox News, adding that the other third had no symptoms.

Non-symptomatic people can spread the disease, but, “we know that the virus is much more likely to spread from person to person if the infected one is showing symptoms,” Njálsson said.

The good news is that a high rate of non-symptomatic cases means more people will be fine than researchers first thought. But virologists note that even accounting for that, more than a million people could die if no precautions were taken

https://www.foxnews.com/health/half-people-coronavirus-have-no-symptoms-data-show

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Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
--- George Santayana

Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
--- Lord Acton

Acting Navy secretary Thomas Modly has since walked back the claim that Captain Crozier "leaked" the letter to the San Francisco Chronicle, How it got there no one is saying at the moment.

Probably found out it came from his area.

And apparently the navy is now scrambling to remove 2,700 personnel from the ship, an act that should have started over a week ago.

Hope the replacement crew speak up & ask for confirmation the ship has been disinfected.

But watch the three below video's:
[quote]Sailors aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt cheered their commander, Capt. Brett Crozier, as he departed the ship after being relieved of duty for sounding the alarm over a coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.towleroad.com/2020/04/sailors-cheer-ousted-navy-commander-as-he-departs-ship-captain-crozier-captain-crozier-watch/

That's more like it.
https://twitter.com/The_UnSilent_/status/1246042796714147840

.. As for the Captain on the US carrier. He did what is supposed to do.

But, he did so in a public forum, not through the chain of command. moomin as a former member of a military force you should understand that. When you go around the chain, this is the result.

As a Vietnam Veteran, I agree that how the Captain transmitted his complaints were wrong. But watch the three below video's:

Sailors aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt cheered their commander, Capt. Brett Crozier, as he departed the ship after being relieved of duty for sounding the alarm over a coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.towleroad.com/2020/04/sailors-cheer-ousted-navy-commander-as-he-departs-ship-captain-crozier-captain-crozier-watch/

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Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
--- George Santayana

Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
--- Lord Acton

The U.S. has now passed 270,000 and accounts for 25% of all reported cases while Italy (119K) and Spain (117K) continue their fight over 2nd spot.

The reported cases from countries doesn't really tell anything more then that some countries test more then other. Perhaps deaths/1M pop is more accurate. Then San Marino is in the lead by far (884). Followed by Italy (243) and Spain (243). The US is on (21) while Sweden is on (35) and Turkey is on (5).
All these number will change day by day. Sometimes very dramatically... Like Turkey's tomorrow...

The U.S. has now passed 270,000 and accounts for 25% of all reported cases while Italy (119K) and Spain (117K) continue their fight over 2nd spot. Turkey is now into 9th spot and the next country on the cards to go ballistic is possibly going to be Indonesia.

But there are some who are sliding down the list and if you want to leave China out of that it still leaves South Korea and Australia.

Acting Navy secretary Thomas Modly has since walked back the claim that Captain Crozier "leaked" the letter to the San Francisco Chronicle, How it got there no one is saying at the moment.

And what do you do when over 100 men have tested positive but those in higher positions say it is only a few dozen. His men seem to think he is the best Captain they've ever had.

And apparently the navy is now scrambling to remove 2,700 personnel from the ship, an act that should have started over a week ago.

.. As for the Captain on the US carrier. He did what is supposed to do.

But, he did so in a public forum, not through the chain of command. moomin as a former member of a military force you should understand that. When you go around the chain, this is the result.

No. You are wrong. Seems like you haven't served your country. Not knowing exactly what happened in this case but I'm pretty sure the Captain asked for help within chain of command but didn't get any and later decided to go public. A problem though is that Guam don't have the facilities to accommodate so many sick people and they refused to comply.

But the rate of change dictates how well the system can cope, especially when resources are limited.

If there are only a certain number of manned beds available and the numbers climb too fast then the hospitals will run out of beds. If the rate can be slowed then there is a chance that the system won't get swamped before more resources come online.

The rate of change is very important, and the White House (the IHME) model was too optimistic, in using a number that worked out as doubling in four days, when the data is showing a doubling in three days. The difference will double the cases in a 28 day period, so instead of having an upper limit of 240,000 it is more like half a million. Unless measures are enforced more rigorously in all states.

.. As for the Captain on the US carrier. He did what is supposed to do.

But, he did so in a public forum, not through the chain of command. moomin as a former member of a military force you should understand that. When you go around the chain, this is the result.

The Captain of the Roosevelt knew that, and proceeded with what he felt was his duty to his personnel which I totally respect, but he put his superiors in a position where they had no choice but to remove him from the command. Bad for morale and it revealed publicly a potential vulnerability on a vital element of the US defense force leaving those same sailors open to possible attack by someone stupid enough to do so.

Had that been the Captain of a Chinese or Russian Carrier, he would have 'disappeared' permanently and been releved of his life.

In North Korea, no reported cases and more missile tests...

....no REPORTED cases.......also no reported cases of death by starvation so it's obviously not happening...........right?

Also............sad but the truth.......

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"Sour Grapes make a bitter Whine." <(0)>

There are 193 countries which are members of the United Nations. The 18 countries without Covid-19:
Comoros; Kiribati; Lesotho; Marshall Islands; Micronesia; Nauru; North Korea; Palau; Samoa; Sao Tome and Principe; Solomon Islands; South Sudan; Tajikistan; Tonga; Turkmenistan; Tuvalu; Vanuatu, Yemen

In North Korea, no reported cases and more missile tests...


In Turkmenistan, the authoritarian regime has banned the word Covid-19 itself, according to the Press Freedom Organization Reporters Without Borders (RSF). Anyone who mentions corona virus on the street or bus may be arrested.
In state media, it is as if the virus has never existed. And the word corona virus has been removed from health leaflets distributed in schools, hospitals and workplaces, according to the Turkmenistan Chronicle, which is one of the few independent sources of what is happening in the closed and isolated country.

Yemen...
https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/the-coronavirus-threat-to-yemen-35029

Try not to be blinded or excused by (assumed, obfuscated) complexity...

The unmitigated rate of spread is a simple doubling of numbers (an exponential curve) at whatever time interval. Imposed quarantine is where that curve is then reduced towards zero depending on how effective the quarantining is or for how effective whatever other measures might be.

Regardless of complexities, we can simply look at how the numbers develop and project an exponential curve for worst case, and project reasonable 'guesses' for the hoped for better outcomes.

Those 'better outcomes' can be modeled to test what assumptions can be tried out for whatever effectiveness.


However, shame about the blindly silly self-centred politics where peoples' lives are to be damned... People are much more than 'just political numbers'...

All in our deadly greedy world,

Stay safe!
Martin

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See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

They came up with numbers of between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths, based partly on the assumption that on the the numbers were doubling in the US every 4 days, The actual numbers are doubling every 3 days, therefore the peak is going to be bigger.

The model — created by the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) — assumes, for example, that all remaining states that have not enacted strict restrictions on residents will do so in the next week.

How much bigger depends on which model you look at, but as Nate Silver and his team concluded there are too many unknowns and too many variables to be be certain any model can be accurate.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704

This is for Austalian's but does contain a chart that compares country's and how and where they are in this pandemic , and also where there likely to end up

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I see that the Presidents model put forward by the White House, was inaccurate almost before the presentation ended.

One of its assumptions was that the daily increase was 850 on the 31st, a doubling every 4 days, it was significantly higher at 895, indicating a doubling closer to every 3 days.
And if you are wondering why these models shouldn't be published, so they can be shot down in flames, take a look at 538 - Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

The Presidents model? I have not seen the presentation but she obviously demonstrate the importance of to "flatten the curve". Not to describe exact events.

One has to ingest the fake news to have it dispelled.
I'm guessing that there is an assumption of some universal font of fake news that contaminates all.

It is meant to inform ppl not worry ppl as there is a lot of fake facts and news .

Yes. To disclose fake facts and news is very much needed in this time we are in right know.

I see that the Presidents model put forward by the White House, was inaccurate almost before the presentation ended.


One of its assumptions was that the daily increase was 850 on the 31st, a doubling every 4 days, it was significantly higher at 895, indicating a doubling closer to every 3 days.

And if you are wondering why these models shouldn't be published, so they can be shot down in flames, take a look at 538 - Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

One has to ingest the fake news to have it dispelled.
I'm guessing that there is an assumption of some universal font of fake news that contaminates all.

It is meant to inform ppl not worry ppl as there is a lot of fake facts and news .

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