But the Drake Equation, given very, very conservative numbers, is telling us that there are HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of intelligent creatures in the universe.

This seemingly large number is less than one intelligent species per thousand galaxies, there being over a hundred billion of those. My pessimistic numbers resulted in one or two civilizations per galaxy. I think that intelligent life is exceedingly rare; plenty of bacteria out there, and very few civilizations. But given that they are likely to be far older than ours, I still think it's worthwhile to look for them. A very small chance is always larger than zero. :^)

Ah, but if you remember your Startrek: TNG Will accidentally created an "intelligent" bacteria (nano something I think I remember), who eventually was relocated to a planet. So "maybe" there is Intelligent life out there, but its too small to care about us?

Tom

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A proud member of the OFA (Old Farts Association).

... if your number system is at least similar to ours.

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Wave upon wave of demented avengers march cheerfully out of obscurity into the dream.

The Fraction Fi may be terribly low. The Earth has had life for billions of years, most of that time it seems to consist of bacterial, one cell, life. The dinosaurs existed for hundreds of millions of years with out any seeming natural selection to result in intelligence.

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This formula lacks one fundamental member: the fn part of the sniffer is so subtle that the neighbors can become supernovae and sterializuouti planets. Knowing the path of universe development and the patterns of star formation, it can reduce the amount of possible intelligent life in several ways.

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There are two things cross my mind as I look at this problem.

The first is, how long do civilizations use the Electromagnetic Spectrum for communications.
It might not be for any great length of time if just round the corner if a better system, maybe Quantum Entanglement if for no other reason it will possibly faster than light, or some other 'magic'.

And second, If a distant civilization, like us, uses radio or light, to transmit a beam of information, from a site similar to Arecibo, what are the chances that we actually will have a receiver pointing in that direction when the beam passes across our planet. Also when you consider all the factors like spin rate (length of day) and variations in tilt, what are the chances it will happen in the near future.

He said at the end of his piece that the thing was not really meant to be solved, there is so much more to consider, a few things have appeared here. Pointless to continue.

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Wave upon wave of demented avengers march cheerfully out of obscurity into the dream.

When I said...

>>> Pointless to continue.

... I was refering to this thread. The Drake equation as it stands has been so shot full of holes as to basically be meaningless. Re-inventing some of the reasons really acheives very little don't you think?

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Wave upon wave of demented avengers march cheerfully out of obscurity into the dream.

When I said...

>>> Pointless to continue.

... I was refering to this thread. The Drake equation as it stands has been so shot full of holes as to basically be meaningless. Re-inventing some of the reasons really achieves very little don't you think?

If it the Drake equation is a starting point for discussion, analysis etc. then don't you think it has achieved its goal?

Tom

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A proud member of the OFA (Old Farts Association).

It would appear to be the starting point for endless, progressively less likely, possibilities to surface. I don't really think that is terribly productive. Unless, of course, you subscribe to Sherlock Holmes's throry, ie. "when all else has been shown to be wrong, whatever is left, however unlikely, must be the truth".

That approach is, of course, just as incorrect, the initial words "when all else" makes the assumption that EVERYTHING has been considered and shown to be wrong, it ignores the possibilities of other explanations that have not been considered either because they had not occurred to the considerer, or not known at the time.

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Wave upon wave of demented avengers march cheerfully out of obscurity into the dream.

It would appear to be the starting point for endless, progressively less likely, possibilities to surface. I don't really think that is terribly productive. Unless, of course, you subscribe to Sherlock Holmes's throry, ie. "when all else has been shown to be wrong, whatever is left, however unlikely, must be the truth".

That approach is, of course, just as incorrect, the initial words "when all else" makes the assumption that EVERYTHING has been considered and shown to be wrong, it ignores the possibilities of other explanations that have not been considered either because they had not occurred to the considerer, or not known at the time.

So if you don't consider it "terribly productive" exactly why are we having any interaction at all? ;)

"....ah, but if I wasn't typing here, I would be doing something else equally unproductive..... likely reading (gulp) "epic" fantasy....." [Yes, the cover or some other remarks use the verbiage "he puts the Epic in Fantasy"..... that I am currently reading.]

I can't always manage to laugh at myself but I do try to.....

Tom

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A proud member of the OFA (Old Farts Association).

As I said earlier...

>>> Pointless to continue.

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Wave upon wave of demented avengers march cheerfully out of obscurity into the dream.

As I said earlier...

>>> Pointless to continue.

So you are a "last word" person?

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A proud member of the OFA (Old Farts Association).

I have always laughed at one term often used in society - Genius.
There is no such person alive, dead, there are many.

Living experts, yes.

One only becomes a genius at the moment of death as that is the moment one stops learning.

I have always laughed at one term often used in society - Genius.
There is no such person alive, dead, there are many.

Living experts, yes.

One only becomes a genius at the moment of death as that is the moment one stops learning.

Unless you get a MacArthur grant ;)

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A proud member of the OFA (Old Farts Association).

What a great article! And thought-provoking? Yes to the Nth degree of a Drake Equation. While it would seem that we homo sapiens have a long way to go just to even "get there," it's fair to say that we have come a long way in a very short time. I mean, a hundred years and here we are sending out pulsed laser signals in an effort to communicate with other lifeforms? If we as tribal creatures can get past our own inherent limitations, the future looks bright: bright enough that you, Mr. Lawn, can write thought-provoking articles with enough mass to bear their own "atomic weight." Thank you, and I look forward to reading more.

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I have made a study of this. The church at one time held that the sun rotated around the Earth because the Bible infers that it is at the center of all things. For a long time the church burned people alive who held different views. In 1600 the church burned scientist Giordano Bruno alive for suggesting that the Earth revolved around the sun, and not the other way around. Then in 1633 they went after Galileo Galilei for the same thing. Famous artists like Michelangelo planted hidden in codes of truth in their paintings for fear of the church. The Inquisitions lasted for 470 years, where the church murdered some 60 million people for a little something they invented called heresy, which is to have a doctrine or opinion contrary to church belief. Today we have ISIS, among many others beliefs, whose mantra is destroy any civilization that doesn't comport with theirs. This belief has left Iraq in near historical ruin. And because there are some twenty major religions in this world, with each giving birth to another 270 religious groups that themselves have splintered into over thirty-four thousand other religions, survival of the species seems to be in doubt. In many ways, and as per your hidden suggestion, we are still living in the Stone Age. I am of the opinion that we have only a short time to get past these manufactured ignorances, or civilization will indeed, crumble into ruins of war. All of which, doesn't even take into consideration the one ultra-advanced society that might show up and do us in because of it. This, after all, is how you stop a virus from spreading its diseased way of life into what are otherwise healthy parts of the whole.

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Great insight! The only way to make sense of the Drake Equation will only truly come when we develop sub-space communication technology. I'll be dead when we do, but will sit up and pay attention just so that I can say I lived to see it.

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Dolphins are certainly intelligent, but they are unlikely to build powerful radio transmitters and point them skyward.

This is an essential point, in my opinion. ….

To your point... I've always thought of the Drake Equation in terms of range.

Here's my take...

The number of planets with life is the high number, 50k or more, while the number of technological civilizations is the low number, probably 1k or less.

Some of those technological civilizations would be pre-radio or post high-power RF. (Post high-power civilizations would not have high-power transmitters or RADAR signals emanating from the planet.) Both would be undetectable.

The number of super intelligent civilizations is probably 1/10th of the low number, or <100.

The number that can travel the galaxy, Star Trek style, is another 1/10, or less than 10. On the Stargate TV series, the Asguard told Col. O'Neill (two LL's) that there were "5 Great Races" in the galaxy. In a TV predicts the future type moment, that number is probably not far off.

Those 5 or 10 advanced civilizations would have a lot of galaxy to explore. There would be many interesting things to see and places to visit. Unfortunately, being on the out-skirts of the galaxy means we aren't going to see, or hear, much of anything. It'll be a long time before anyone, or any signals, make it out this far. But, that's just my opinion...

Assuming I recall correctly, a couple or more years ago BBC's well known monthly 'Sky at Night' programme also did an estimate based on scientists at that time guesstimates and came up with 5 advanced civilisations [that are at the same or similar technological status] including ourselves at the same overlapping timeframes as humanity now.

More recently Prof.Brian Cox (fellow University of Manchester Alumni) of 'Wonders' series fame, thought it more likely to be 1 in the Milky Way now and that's my estimate also at this moment in time = Us.

If I find any references to the programmes I'll post later.

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My arguments about the Drake Equation are that L may be closer to 30 years. We as a society came very close to self-destructing soon after we started making and installing ICBM missiles.

I also think there should be an addendum to the equation.:
"Se" for the frequency of external sterilizing events from nearby stars.
"SL" for the frequency of local sterilizing events from such things as asteroids or coronal events from the host star.


Best Regards

John Trivilino