The Drake Equation: Revisiting a Classic Tool to Estimate the Odds of Contact

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Keven Tate

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Message 1992249 - Posted: 2 May 2019, 2:05:03 UTC - in response to Message 1989021.  

The science is focused where it should be, I think , which is "Is life, in whatever form, duplicated off our planet?". Once we have answered that the discussion we will then be more focused on intelligent life, the ability to differentiate between yesterday, today and tomorrow.
Once we have found microbial life AND if the odds work out that its everywhere, then the odds of intelligent life, that can measure time, should be high.
When I look at planet earth, intelligence is trying to sprout up everywhere. There are a few species that use tools, this is key to evolve to the next level, although humans where between the Bonobo and the Chimpanzee, they all use tools, and it came down to the chemical balances of testosterone and oxytosen, to elevate to the next level. Who's not to say that given time the Bonobo and Chimp may evolve.
Digits or Tenticles, seem to be the first key, and when we look at all the species on earth , intelligence given time could sprout from many different kinds of creatures.
There is even a paper extrapolating from dinosaurs a dinosaur looking humanoid, that eventually may have evolved, where they not hit with that fateful asteroid.
After time measurement is attained, the next level is energy production, and as we understand dry ground, and your ability to breath on dry ground will probably give you an advantage over trying to evolve submerged in water.
So I see life in all forms on our planet giving intelligence a real go from so many different angles.
The problem for us off planet at the moment is our limited ability to look, but that is progressing ever so slowly.
If we do find microbal life off planet, at least we can then refine the Drake equation and also it reduces the chances of living in a Virtual reality. (Religion could turn out to be just a belief of our parents. ) After we have had a look hard look at our galaxy , and we still dont find even microbial life, my money will be on the Virtual reality show :). And thats a great discussion all by itself.
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Luis

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Message 1992293 - Posted: 2 May 2019, 14:25:51 UTC - in response to Message 1988869.  
Last modified: 2 May 2019, 14:26:44 UTC

I don't see in the Drake equation a term considering the distance of each star to us and the time needed for the light to ever reach us.
Luis
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DougAlder

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Message 1992350 - Posted: 3 May 2019, 0:46:44 UTC - in response to Message 1988901.  

If we ever do contact ET and exchange info or they visit us face to face, that rather puts an end to religion as we know it. Why? Because they aren't supposed to exist. What then? Collapse of civilisation and governments, rioting on the streets, half the world killing the other half.?


Given the mess that religion (any, but particularly the Abrahamic ones) has made of this planet and its inhabitants (any living thing), that sounds like an excellent argument for making contact. With over 7 billion people on the planet we are due for a good culling (hopefully said aliens will be peaceful and not carrying a "How to Serve Man" cookbook :)
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Message 1993351 - Posted: 10 May 2019, 19:19:12 UTC - in response to Message 1989444.  

There are two ways SETI might pick up an alien signal, leakage of the type we ourselves are producing or a direct beam. Leakage dissipates with distance, to send a direct beam the aliens would have to be aware of us by said leakage or by spectral analyses of Earth’s atmosphere all of which points to them fairly close by (150 light years? ) How likely is that?
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Message 1993405 - Posted: 11 May 2019, 9:09:35 UTC
Last modified: 11 May 2019, 9:09:49 UTC

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Michael Watson

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Message 1993425 - Posted: 11 May 2019, 15:10:34 UTC

Still, even within the 100 light years our radio signals have reached, there are approximately 13,850 stars. If the galaxy is largely populated, there might already be some civilizations in space, which are aware of our presence.
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Profile Ilya Mogilevsky
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Message 1999537 - Posted: 25 Jun 2019, 7:55:11 UTC - in response to Message 1992293.  
Last modified: 25 Jun 2019, 7:56:12 UTC

What is the accounting of this time? Drake's formula is needed to calculate the number of civilizations in the galaxy. How does the time of propagation of light affect the response?
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Michael Watson

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Message 1999576 - Posted: 25 Jun 2019, 14:55:42 UTC
Last modified: 25 Jun 2019, 15:02:39 UTC

Welcome to SETI @ Home, Ilya Mogilevsky

Assume that we have been emitting radio waves detectable at stellar distances for 100 years. We could have had a response from extraterrestrials living within 50 light years. Fifty years for our radio waves to reach them, and 50 more for their reply to each us.

That space contains about 1730 stars, in round numbers. Of course this assumes that they actually replied, that we could recognize their response, and that their signal was strong enough to be discerned among our own competing radio waves, which would act as interference to an extraterrestrial signal.

For all we know, there could be a rule against openly replying to the radio signals of a naive civilization, that is-- one without prior acquaintance with other civilizations in space. It might be thought necessary to gradually prepare us for such contact first.

They might send ambiguous, non-repeating signals, and let us ponder over these for a while, before making their presence obvious. There have been such signals, by the way. The so-called 'wow signal' is merely the best known of these.
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Message 1999698 - Posted: 26 Jun 2019, 11:28:48 UTC - in response to Message 1999576.  

It's clear! But why send non-recurring signals? Any civilization that has reached a high level of development is able to understand that decoding non-repeating signals is very difficult. On the contrary, they had to draw conclusions that constantly recurring signals would provide an understanding that they were created and sent into space by intelligent beings. Of course, the signals must have information in themselves, otherwise it can be, for example, a pulsar. If a civilization wants to be discovered, why does it need to send signals that no one can recognize?
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Michael Watson

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Message 1999762 - Posted: 26 Jun 2019, 16:28:06 UTC

I was suggesting the possibility that the psychology and ethics of extraterrestrials might differ from our own. They might not want to approach the problem of first contact in quite the way we would do. They could deem it unwise to suddenly contact a species, like ourselves, which is unacquainted with life on other worlds. They might view such contact as likely to be disruptive and harmful to our cultures.

In such a case, they might send non-repeating, and otherwise ambiguous signals, which could not be fully understood in the short term, or perhaps even confirmed. These signals could still at least give us the sense that we might be receiving signals from extraterrestrials. This, in itself, could have a certain preparatory effect on us.

The odd situation, defined by the Fermi paradox, in which it seems probable that we live in a galaxy full of intelligent life, yet have no obvious evidence of its existence, might be explained by such restraint and caution on the part of our extraterrestrial neighbors.
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Message 1999888 - Posted: 27 Jun 2019, 5:12:26 UTC - in response to Message 1999762.  

In any case, any civilization goes through certain stages of its development, step by step. In the period of mastering radio programs, signals are emitted into space, which, theoretically, can be fixed. Industrial production is impossible without the use of technologies, in the process of which many repetitive signals are emitted. If extraterrestrial advanced civilizations exist, they must produce a lot of artificial noise.
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Michael Watson

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Message 1999956 - Posted: 27 Jun 2019, 15:55:40 UTC
Last modified: 27 Jun 2019, 15:56:45 UTC

Yes, an extraterrestrial civilization will undoubtedly emit repetitive signals that unintentionally reach Earth at some point in its history. However, these would probably be much more difficult to detect than signals intentionally directed at us.

Unintentional radio 'noise' of this sort might also resemble our own radio traffic closely enough, so that even if it were detected, it could be ignored as Earthly interference.
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Message 2000053 - Posted: 28 Jun 2019, 7:29:18 UTC - in response to Message 1999956.  

If it is possible to register the repeating signals, similar to those of the earth, then it is easy to check where they come from. For this there are radio astronomy methods. Therefore, they will not be ignored. So far, no such signals have been registered from space. With regard to non-repeating signals, I can say the following: no matter how high a level of development a extraterrestrial civilization reaches, its signals will sooner or later begin to repeat. This will happen because the level of development is still limited. To generate non-recurring, always unique signals, the level of development of a civilization must tend to infinity.
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Message 2000094 - Posted: 28 Jun 2019, 13:28:22 UTC

Richard M Lawn wrote  "The range of uncertainty of L swamps that of all the other factors in the Drake Equation. This is perhaps the greatest value of the exercise. 500 and 5 million years =>  N =  31 to 310 000."

I think we have the "big filter" in front of us because of natural causes.  We have an exponential growth in population, resource utilization (such as food, energy etc.) and also pollution. 100 years ago the world had less than 2 billion in population.  Today I think we have less than 100 years before we hit the roof and society as we know it totally collapses.

Estimates L to 200 years leading to N = 12, i.e about the same as R. The chance to find 12 civilizations among all stars in the Milky Way galaxy that have earthly planets is almost non-existent, considering distances, radio free space loss and that more technologically advanced with time uses less emitted power.

Still we have to try and maybe we also contribute to other science.
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Message 2000233 - Posted: 29 Jun 2019, 4:52:15 UTC - in response to Message 2000094.  

Without a doubt, the project contributes to other sciences. Currently, the project focuses on narrow-band signals, but if we receive signals that we receive at a level lower than the radio noise level, then we can only detect them by statistical methods. This is a much more complicated computational experiment. It is possible that we are recording signals from other civilizations right now, but we cannot detect them due to insufficient evaluation and signal accumulation time.
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Message 2000628 - Posted: 2 Jul 2019, 18:49:58 UTC - in response to Message 1988766.  

If realistically there are anywhere from thousands to hundreds of thousands of ETI in our galaxy, where are they?

Would love your take on the Fermi Paradox, Richard.

Cheers,
Carl Kruse
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Message boards : SETI Perspectives : The Drake Equation: Revisiting a Classic Tool to Estimate the Odds of Contact


 
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