On the positive side, we might add terms for civilizations which save themselves from extinction by various means. Means such as diverting asteroids that would otherwise strike their planet, or living in underground shelters temporarily, to avoid radiation bursts from their host star, or from a nearby supernova.

Human civilization has managed to avoid the further use of atomic weapons after their very limited, one-time, use, over 70 years ago. Every year the nations of the world grow more closely integrated., rendering their use less and less likely. We are very unlikely to be unique, or even unusual in this. There seems to be room for optimism.

On the positive side, we might add terms for civilizations which save themselves from extinction by various means. Means such as diverting asteroids that would otherwise strike their planet, or living in underground shelters temporarily, to avoid radiation bursts from their host star, or from a nearby supernova.

Human civilization has managed to avoid the further use of atomic weapons after their very limited, one-time, use, over 70 years ago. Every year the nations of the world grow more closely integrated., rendering their use less and less likely. We are very unlikely to be unique, or even unusual in this. There seems to be room for optimism.

If you were to claim that Atomic weapons testing is "not the user of" then I suppose you are right about the "very limited, one-time, use" but given the saber rattling we get from North Korea, Bangladesh and India much less Iran I am not so sure we are making progress "fast enough" on that front.

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A proud member of the OFA (Old Farts Association).

13 paragraphs in an attempt to justify the Drake equation which was made in 1961 and is now out of date. No mention that I could see of the Seager Equation, or of the Fermi Paradox.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the Universe has changed a lot since 1961.

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Pardon me for my English: However, is that relevant? Is it relevant if that civilization may long extinct? My understanding is, we are looking for a signal. And if we detect one, then there is a proof: At least one more civilization was or is out there...

Welcome to the forum ArtNav!
Yes, indeed! And even if a civilization didn't go extinct, but merely progressed to some other, hard-to-detect communication technology, there'd still presumably be a decades-wide band of relatively easy-to-detect radio signals from them, streaming out through the galaxy.

The Milky Way Galaxy has an estimated 100 billion stars. The majority of the stars are in the central core where star density is very high. High density is probably not favorable to creating intelligent life as the number of close star makes areas much more unstable. It has been suggested that like solar systems, galaxies also have a goldilocks zone. It is quite possible that one be out in the arms of the milky way to provide a stable enough environment for intelligent life to evolve . This could drop the number of suitable stars to less than 10 percent, possibly even more.

If life can only evolve on the fringes or arms that would make contact even more difficult as signals would have a huge distance to travel and a lot of dust and other material to travel through. Even if the there were a huge number of intelligent civilizations on the other side of the galaxy our chances of detecting them would be very close to zero.

It has been stated a few times in this thread and I would also concur that the drake equation has too many unknown variables to be of much use. I think it is useful in creating dialog and as starting point to define what we dont't know. I think creating an equation for each variable would also serve as a way to define what we don't know.

The drake equation is less math than it is an exercise in logic. Not enough real data to make N any number that has any chance of being true.

Bob

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Sometimes I wonder, what happened to all the people I gave directions to?
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SETI@home classic workunits 4,321
SETI@home classic CPU time 22,169 hours

Antes que nada muchas Gracias por contar conmigo...
en lo personal tengo la certeza que las señales esta llegando . lamentablemente tenemos que tener en cuenta que una señal que ellos nos puedan enviar y dependiendo de la distancia, puede tardar años .. contar también que recibirla y descifrarla también tarda lo suyo.. nos llevara tiempo.. pero creo firmemente el la Teoría de mi Físico preferido

MICHIO KAKU …
EL CONTACTO SERA PRONTO.. INCLUSO MAS DE LO QUE PENSAMOS ..

First of all thank you so much for having me ...
Personally, I am certain that the signals are coming. unfortunately we have to take into account that they can send us and depending on the distance, it can take years .. also count that receiving and deciphering it also takes time .. it will take time .. but I firmly believe in The Theory of my Preferred Physicist

MICHIO KAKU ...
THE CONTACT WILL BE SOON .. EVEN MORE THAN WE THINK ..

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estamos buscando la señal equivocada …

Artnav, your English was just fine, there; better than some for whom it's their only language

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There's a return metaphor underlining all of this I feel !! There is an area of our minds, that if we could all tap into, and somehow stream that to one another; imagine the love that would be <3

For me the most fascinating thing isn't ET's its the idea that the the world is made out of mind, and not just matter; there are just too many endless discussions to all of these
topics of discussion. I love the grey's the Nordics, the blue-avians, I love them all but we are the center of the universe.

Instead of looking to the stars for answers, we need to look deep into ourselves (it's equally as important)

I hope you all have a beautiful life, and I really believe that every single human being is the center of the universe.

merely “waiting for the flying saucer to land in Harvard Square"

I'd wait for that and even buy a ticket to see!

:)

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At risk of sounding like a sheer lunatic - there is plenty of matter to go around in the Universe. And we have our lions share of it. Anytime you ping, twist, shout, or reverse the spin of an electron - that there is a chance (perhaps a very good one) that your particle that you are toying with has a quantum paired particle.

Given the humongous numbers involved, many of those sister particles are entangled, not in your immediate vicinity - and they are located in a distance from your line of sight.

The next time you irradiate the space around you with a pocket laser, take pleasure in the knowledge that a distant and intelligent life perceives the "communication" that you are innocently pinging outward with.

The odds of contact, and not from a true math perspective, are not as high as you might think.

Thank you for letting me chime in, and for allocating my disk space to SETI.

Best Regards to ALL, and thank you for a great read!

Theodore R. Frimet
Croydon, Pennsylvania USA

In other words, you would give a smaller value to fc. Fair enough.

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Several interesting points.

1) Traveling between systems: I agree that 'suspended animation' and FTL are highly unlikely, but sending out a small number (perhaps 6 < N <12) of women with thousands of frozen fertilized zygotes would suffice for an efficient colony ship.

2) Fermi Paradox: William Newman and Carl Sagan co-authored a paper dealing with the paradox. A valuable bit of insight in the paper was the recognition that the single major reason to colonize another system is to assure the survival of the species AND doing so requires a major investment of the initiating civilization. After two or three successful colonies, there is little incentive for that species to continue radiating out into the galaxy since none of the 'home' planets receive tangible benefits from further colonization.

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Interesante articulo Richard, lo ultimo que haces referencia es indudablemente cierto ¿ que tanto creemos o no sobre los ET ?

Interesting article Richard, the last thing you are referring to is undoubtedly true, how much do we believe or not about ET?

Es ist nicht die Frage des daran Glauben, sondern wann ist die Menschheit reif dazu, von ET zu wissen!

Es ist nicht die Frage des daran Glauben, sondern wann ist die Menschheit reif dazu, von ET zu wissen!

Via google translate
"It is not the question of belief, but when is humanity ripe to know about ET! "

Andreas Stoecklin
Your evidence to support this is? This does appear to be a statement of belief so maybe the first 7 words are correct.

Bob

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Sometimes I wonder, what happened to all the people I gave directions to?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SETI@home classic workunits 4,321
SETI@home classic CPU time 22,169 hours

NO is Human Organism energy and material layer similar to earth organism Connected and Human absorbate all Electron and Particulars Levels in Quantum Positon 0.1 ~ 8 Millard High Resonacing and a technical bit is in ME 0.1 read Connect Mind Control or Search 3RD EYE to Cennect AEVAQ QAVEA SPACE [Earth] ME to QIVIUM Point CE PLATVORM X set your Combination to insert Gyroscope Exteristcal - ISS back in You self test ... comment aevaq.jimdosite.com

Magnetic Nature DATA Computer Creation Picture

https://1drv.ms/o/s!An7d8NwJcViOjIUvUp5zIlppGWSVxg[/url]

Isn’t it obvious that the size of our planet is negligible when compared with the size of our solar system which is almost invisible compared to the size of the milky-way galaxy which in-turn is inconsequential by size when compared to the size of the universe? It should be practically unacceptable for any rational thinking person to think ‘we are alone’. Search for ETI is my newest found love and running SETI@home is the least I can do. Nevertheless, I think we are a bit myopic about channels of communication.

Before you scroll off my careless talks, these are my suggestions: do you remember the scientist that suggested that we make kilometers of trench of wild fire on earth surface such that it will be bold and luminous enough for aliens to see and maybe consider it an SOS such that they’ll rush to our planet to help us or EAT us? Well, a modern look at that concept might be helpful. First lets re-evaluate the following facts
There are other intelligent beings here on earth (e.g. dolphins) with a system of vocabulary yet neither man nor the creatures understand the other, at best we say they make remarkable sound. If man and dolphins’ communication skills evolved so far apart, shouldn’t it be natural to expect ETI to evolve with a system of communication technologically different from our definition of ‘means of communication’? With this in mind let’s look at things we might have in common with our galactic neighbors
The only reason we know they are there is because we can see at great distance uncountable number of objects in the universe, object that looks and behaves like our solar system- a system of ‘ball of fire (the sun) with several solid objects revolving round it. This means that at least we all understand light and fire. Another thing we clearly should have in common with ETI is ‘gravity’. These are the tools we must use for effective communication
Suppose the signal we send is rather made of light wave (visible to the eye) and not just radio wave that requires transistors and diodes made of silicon to decipher, suppose their planet is not generous with elements like silicon and germanium for easy construction of transistors, suppose ETs don't have fingers to construct radio receivers yet capable of using mother nature's abundant resources to Kris-cross the universe, Suppose we can digitally transmit light that can travel billions of light years without losing its substance yet capable of depicting its intentions to any civilization beyond our planet. Suppose the satellites used for SETI also detects beam of lights sent to us through unnatural medium (light from stars and other celestial occurrence’s excluded). We will stand a better chance of saying HELLO to our galactic neighbors.

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Fi may be a very low number. For example the dinosaurs existed for hundreds of millions of years without intelligence. Intelligence may not be as powerfully adaptive as you may imagine. As you stated the Earth had microbial life for 3 billion years. Life has existed for about 3.5 billion years, but it is for only the last 50 or so years that we truly have the ability to listen over interstellar distances.

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