Russia in the 21st Century #2

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Message 2144831 - Posted: 5 Jan 2025, 7:16:24 UTC

Top-secret Russian military documents reveal how Vladimir Putin is planning to exploit the chaos caused by any invasion of Taiwan by China.

Europe fears Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to attack before the end of the decade. But leaked documents suggest he’s also seeking to exploit the chaos and confusion caused by any invasion of Taiwan by China.

A secret list detailing 160 high-priority targets in Japan and South Korea has been handed to British newspaper The Financial Times (FT).

These include expected facilities, such as airfields, permanent radar sites and naval bases. But they also include civilian infrastructure generally protected by the laws of war – including nuclear power plants and transportation tunnels.

TheFT says “Western sources” supplied copies of 29 Russian military documents used for briefing officers on a potential offensive in northeastern Asia.

The files – displaying the emblem of the Russian Armed Forces’ Combined Arms Academy – date from about 2014. That’s the year Russia first invaded Ukraine’s Crimean and Donbas provinces.........
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Message 2144980 - Posted: 8 Jan 2025, 9:37:08 UTC
Last modified: 8 Jan 2025, 9:37:16 UTC

Heating Failures Hit Russia's Far East Amid Subzero Temperatures

Thousands of people in the Far East city of Chita have been left without heating and hot water amid subzero winter temperatures following an accident at a local heating plant on Tuesday.

The Mashinostroitelny heating plant has been plagued by frequent breakdowns — the most recent occurring on Dec. 29 — and failed to obtain a winter-readiness certificate this year. In 2023, regional authorities noted that the plant's operations were hazardous and responsible for over 200 tons of harmful emissions.

Its owner, former Chita mayor and United Russia member Vladimir Zabelin, had promised residents that repairs would be carried out last winter. But in March 2024, he offered to sell the facility to the city administration for 107 million rubles ($1.2 million). The administration declined the offer, citing budget constraints.

Meanwhile, in the Far East republic of Sakha (Yakutia), residents of the Zhigansky district lost heating for six days amid temperatures of minus 50 C (minus 58 F) after a fire on New Year's Eve forced the shutdown of the district's central heating plant.

Temperatures inside some homes dropped to 5-7 C (41-45 F), causing pipes and radiators to burst. Local shops quickly ran out of space heaters and blankets, the regional news outlet SakhaDay reported.

The Zhigansky district's heating plant is operated by a company headed by United Russia deputy Vitaly Chikachev.

"We need to think about how our power plant can handle this load. After all, people are turning on more than one [electric] heater [in their homes]. So the issue is very serious. If, God forbid, something happens to the diesel power plant, then there's no need for war, we'll all freeze to death anyway," Margarita Nifontova, an assistant to the State Counselor of Sakha, quoted a local resident as saying in an audio message.
Greedy thieves and criminals own the local heating plants.
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Message 2144981 - Posted: 8 Jan 2025, 10:10:10 UTC
Last modified: 8 Jan 2025, 10:23:09 UTC

Isolated energy systems

[...] some parts of Russia are completely isolated from the unified energy system, including Kamchatka, Magadan Oblast, Sakhalin Oblast, Chukotka and Taimyr Autonomous Okrug, the western and central parts of the Sakha Republic, as well as many remote settlements across the country.
Eastern Siberian Sakha republic, e.g. Zhigansky district totally depends on small, local Soviet-era power plants in rural towns. Without connection to the Russian grid, damages to power plants are as life threatening there as for research stations in Antarctica. Zhigansk in particular has no year-round road connection to the regional capital Yakutsk (600 km; 370 mi away); just a boat connection on Lena river in summer and a winter road on frozen ground.

Grid coverage in Russia (blue):
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Message 2145344 - Posted: 18 Jan 2025, 5:29:14 UTC

Terrorist states tie knot.

The two of the biggest anti-Western superpowers have signed a terrifying new pact.

Russia and Iran signed a new treaty underpinning their economic and military cooperation, in what both sides cast as a major milestone in their relations.

Moscow has looked to the Islamic republic as a strategic ally since sending troops into Ukraine in February 2022, worrying Western officials who see both as malign actors on the world stage.

The two sides agreed to help each other counter common “security threats”, according to a copy of the text published by the Kremlin. But they stopped short of a mutual defence pact like the one signed between Russia and North Korea last year.

They also agreed that if either side was subjected to aggression, the other would not provide “assistance to the aggressor”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian, who signed the agreement together at a ceremony in the Kremlin, both hailed the accord as a new chapter in their ties.......
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Message 2145405 - Posted: 19 Jan 2025, 21:40:53 UTC

Superpowers? Neither of them.
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Message 2145550 - Posted: 22 Jan 2025, 20:38:01 UTC

Seeing that PooTin won't take his calls Donny makes a statement.

Trump tells PooTin to end Ukraine war now: ‘Can do it the easy way, or hard way’.

President Trump warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine quickly, or else face “high levels of taxes, tariffs and sanctions.”

Trump took to Truth Social on Wednesday to double-down on his criticisms of Putin and Russia’s hurting economy, warning Moscow that things would only get worse if the war doesn’t end soon, reports the New York Post.

“Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE,” Trump urged.....
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Message 2145571 - Posted: 23 Jan 2025, 10:27:22 UTC

First of all, it would be necessary to clarify how Trump will deal with the dozens of European countries that handle Russia sanctions quite differently. Some still get all of their natural gas from Russia. Oil, fuel rods (nuclear), coal... There is no uniform line within the EU with regard to Russia sanctions.
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Message 2145585 - Posted: 23 Jan 2025, 16:25:24 UTC

It seems Russia finally lost its Mediterranean Naval Base which it had inherited from the Soviet Union:

Syria Terminates Russian Naval Base Deal – Reports

Syria’s new government terminated a treaty granting Russia a long-term military presence in the Mediterranean, a deal brokered under ousted leader Bashar al-Assad, Syrian media reported Tuesday.

The agreement, signed in 2017, extended the Russian Navy’s lease on the port of Tartus for 49 years. [...]

The de facto authorities in Tartus reportedly annulled the agreement and demanded the immediate withdrawal of Russian forces, the Syrian opposition news outlet Shaam reported Monday, citing the regime’s ministry of information.

Putin claimed that Russia had achieved its objectives in Syria despite the regime change.
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Message 2145587 - Posted: 23 Jan 2025, 16:47:33 UTC
Last modified: 23 Jan 2025, 16:47:54 UTC

Putin Believes Key Ukraine War Goals Achieved – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin believes Russia has achieved its key objectives in the war against Ukraine, but he has also grown increasingly concerned about the conflict’s economic impact on the country, Reuters reported Thursday, citing anonymous sources.

One source familiar with Kremlin thinking reportedly said Russia had weakened Ukraine’s military and secured territorial control connecting mainland Russia to annexed Crimea.
Everything is going according to the plan. We just have to sign a peace treaty now to make Trump happy, the Europeans too... and to lay down 'our' newly achieved provinces in Novorossia...
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Message 2146103 - Posted: 6 Feb 2025, 14:59:02 UTC

Baltic grid divorce will further isolate Russian exclave in the EU

Until now, the exclave [Kaliningrad] has remained connected to the electricity grid controlled by Moscow.

But from 7 to 9 February, the Baltics will transition away from the Russian power grid and, in doing so, they will take the nuclear-armed exclave out of the mega-grid controlled by the Kremlin.

"After Baltic Power System synchronisation with Continental Europe, Kaliningrad area will operate in the island mode," said Lithuanian grid operator Litgrid, who is in charge of the grid cut alongside their Baltic counterparts.

Energy islands – grids without external connections – are rare in Europe. Such networks are more challenging to operate, as they cannot rely on cross-border flows to balance power supply and demand variations.

On 8 February, the Baltics will "switch off all the power connections to Russia and Belarus... and these lines will be dismantled," the Litgrid spokesperson told Euractiv.

The Balts are already preparing for Russian pushback.

"In response to recent incidents, Lithuania and Poland have enhanced the protection of the [cross-border power cable] LitPol Link," said Jakubik, which means surveillance, physical enhancement and increased coordination.
Two more days...
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Message 2146145 - Posted: 7 Feb 2025, 9:41:49 UTC
Last modified: 7 Feb 2025, 9:43:48 UTC

The interesting thing about Kaliningrad... the Russians had at least 10 years to negotiate an 'electric transit corridor', like the ones that exist for road and rail transport since the 1990s. They would have had to pay for it entirely themselves. But an empire doesn't think in terms of 'transit agreements', it mobilizes the imperial troops instead to annex connect exclaves with the empire... if only those damned stubborn Ukrainians didn't demand all the imperial attention...
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Message 2146196 - Posted: 8 Feb 2025, 16:23:06 UTC
Last modified: 8 Feb 2025, 16:41:21 UTC

This morning at 9:09 EET (UTC+2) the Baltic countries (LT, LV, EE) disconnected from the Russian synchronous IPS/UPS grid and operate in island mode now. There are two further non-synchronous HVDC subsea links to Sweden and Finland (so not totally isolated).

Final synchronous connection to Poland (400 kV AC) is expected for tomorrow.

https://www.litgrid.eu/index.php/news-events-/news/estonian-latvian-and-lithuanian-power-systems-disconnected-from-russian-ipsups-system-/36047
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Message 2146216 - Posted: 9 Feb 2025, 17:29:46 UTC

[Baltics] successfully synchronised with Continental Europe

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have successfully synchronised their electricity systems with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area on 9 February 2025 at 14:05 EET (UTC+2) today.

“Lithuania's electricity system has been dependent on Russia for 65 years - more than half a century. Now we are closing this chapter for all time […]

“The synchronisation […] with continental Europe is a historic step, like standing firmly with both feet on Europe's tectonic geopolitical plate […]“
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Message 2146277 - Posted: 10 Feb 2025, 23:16:04 UTC - in response to Message 2146216.  
Last modified: 10 Feb 2025, 23:16:18 UTC

Wow.


And so what next from Russia?

What of the now excluded exclave of Kaliningrad??


All in our deadly political world...
Martin
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Message 2146298 - Posted: 11 Feb 2025, 14:34:13 UTC - in response to Message 2146277.  
Last modified: 11 Feb 2025, 15:00:53 UTC

Wow.
Indeed!
The Balts spent ten years and more than 1.5 billion euros to built new transmission lines, transformer stations, renewed existing ones; national control centers; to adhere to European ENTSO-E standards. That is: distributed, coordinated frequency control is now the responsibility of the three national Baltic transmission grid operators instead of the previous central (Soviet style) grid control in Moscow. Three quarters of project costs have been funded by EU. Work on additional redundancy in transmission lines, further cross-border interconnectors to continental Europe is ongoing.

What of the now excluded exclave of Kaliningrad??
Total isolation (island mode), no HVDC links, no subsea links, no grid connection, like in Magadan or Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (Russia's Pacific East).

They have 6 gas power plants (~1,700 MW), most of them smaller heating plants and 1 coal PP (~200 MW), 2 small hydros (1.6 MW), 3 wind turbines (5 MW). Maximum load in 2020 was 727 MW. So, they have vast excess generation capacity which is inefficient. But to minimize reserves you need a large grid and/or international cooperation.

The construction of the Kaliningrad Nuclear PP (2 x 1,100 MW) is on hold since more than 10 years... no one in the Baltics was ever interested to become dependent on a Russian NPP again. Baltic nations know their neighbour like the Finns do. Without grid connection, at least to Russia or Belarus, this project is dead.

Cut all connections, weld all the gates shut, and wait for a decade or more...
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Message 2146300 - Posted: 11 Feb 2025, 17:27:45 UTC - in response to Message 2146298.  
Last modified: 11 Feb 2025, 17:28:24 UTC

Kaliningrad:

They have 6 gas power plants (~1,700 MW) ... Maximum load in 2020 was 727 MW. So, they have vast excess generation capacity...

So... Was Kaliningrad exporting electricity from burning cheap Russian gas?...

What keeps the economy and the people of Kaliningrad afloat now?...!

How soon for the Russian collapse?


Similarly... What has happened to Transnistria??...


All in the very silly games of deadly politics...
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Message 2146326 - Posted: 12 Feb 2025, 10:22:22 UTC - in response to Message 2146300.  

So... Was Kaliningrad exporting electricity from burning cheap Russian gas?...
Before the war in Ukraine Baltics, Poland as well as Finland traded electricity with Russia/Belarus. This stopped with the war. But in synchronous grids unwanted electric currents still flow according to Ohm's laws instead of what trade floor decides. Many of their old and inefficient heating plants were operated during peak months in winter only. So in the remaining months Kaliningrad also imported cheap electricity from Russian and Belarus Nuclear PPs via transit through Lithuania and Latvia. No longer.

What keeps the economy and the people of Kaliningrad afloat now?...!
It ever was and still is an economic and administrative center, lots of universities, academies, institutes. International airport (now only domestic to RU/BY). Fishing, manufacturing. The harbor is Russia's only all-year ice-free one at the Baltic Sea. Transit agreements with EU enable custom-free transit on roads and railways to Russia. Kaliningrad is a designated a 'special economic zone', that is, lower taxes and lower customs for imports. It's also the headquarter of Russian Navy's Baltic Fleet, with its main base in Baltiysk. There are lots of Air Force, Army, (nuclear) Rocket Forces (e.g. Iskander) SRBMs with a range exceeding 500 km (310 mi) which violated the INF treaty and threatens the Baltics, Warsaw, Berlin. The extremely powerful Baltic GPS jammer is located there, endangering civil aviation. So, many thousands of government jobs to harass and threaten the rest of Europe.

As long as Russia's oil/gas/coal/fertilizer/... export business generates sufficient profits, they will continue to subsidize their strategic outposts (e.g. Kaliningrad, Vladivostok or the Russian province capitals in non-Russian ethnic majority regions). It's a colonial empire, the last remaining one.

How soon for the Russian collapse?
Their prepared and topped up 'welfare fund' and further monetary reserves (almost a trillion dollars warchest) to substitute sanctioned revenues empties fast; already unbearable interest rates (20...23%) cripple the non-military economy. Russia's extremely competent national bank's CEO Elwira Nabiulinna masterfully controls the Ruble; limits inflation and interest rates, even fended off most financial sanctions. A finance genius and war opponent who nevertheless enables Putin's warmongering.

It's difficult to assess 'how soon' as there is no longer a transparent and trustworthy reporting of key economic figures. I'm sure Western intelligence services monitor the economic details and already can smell the rot. The fastest path to collapse is to block Russia's oil exports and/or convince OPEC to keep oil prices down for one or two more years. That destroyed the USSR thoroughly in the mid-1980s.
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Message 2146328 - Posted: 12 Feb 2025, 10:33:10 UTC
Last modified: 12 Feb 2025, 11:11:28 UTC

Similarly... What has happened to Transnistria??...
After two weeks of freezing Kremlin allowed them to accept EU emergency gas deliveries. They agreed on a gas transit agreement with Moldova. EU supplied them for just ~10 days; after which they signed a provisional contract with a Hungarian gas trading company, some Dubai-based traders in between, and supposedly Russian financing. They reject any gas deliveries from the EU market or further emergency support because EU demanded them to gradually raise consumer tariffs to end the Socialist-style wasting of the (almost) free gas in badly heat-insulated buildings (all that wasteful CO2 enfuriates EU Greens).

Now everything is back according to plan in Soviet Transnistria where all wallclocks has stood still since 1991.

Attention! We now sing our anthem!

Soyuz nerushimyy respublik svobodnykh / (An unbreakable union of free republics)
Splotila naveki velikaya Rus. / (The Great Rus' has sealed forever.)
Da zdravstvuyet sozdanny voley narodov / (Long live, the creation by the people's will,)
Yedinyy, moguchiy Sovetskiy Soyuz! / (The united, mighty Soviet Union!)

(if above oga audio file don't works: youtube)

Can you feel the Greatness, the Glory, of our mighty Union? No gas, shivering in the cold... nah.... Never mind! Our great nation is all you need!
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Message 2146332 - Posted: 12 Feb 2025, 10:47:35 UTC - in response to Message 2146328.  

Thanks for the update/summary!

Mmmm... So... Those transit agreements look to be the fragile connection.

And the rest is politics...


Stay safe folks!
Martin
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Message 2146438 - Posted: 14 Feb 2025, 13:42:02 UTC - in response to Message 2146332.  
Last modified: 14 Feb 2025, 14:18:13 UTC

Mmmm... So... Those transit agreements look to be the fragile connection.
Gas supply from Gazprom will be resumed as soon as Russia has finished the 'Anschluss' of the remainder of so-called 'Ukraine' so that Transnistria is reunited with the eternal motherland. It makes no sense to establish permanent supplies from decadent Europe for the interim period. Russia is in promising talks with America about this.

And the rest is geopolitics...
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Message boards : Politics : Russia in the 21st Century #2


 
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