Apparently icing of control services are being looked at as it flew through some pretty bad weather.

Icing may have contributed to the crash, but it won't have (shouldn't have!) been the cause.

An aerodynamic stall due to ice doesn't lead to a flat spin.
The aircraft may stall start to fall out of the sky with it's nose up (pitch up), a wing could drop (roll) and then the plane turns and heads for the ground. Both are recoverable, although if there is still ice on the wing(s) significant control issues will still remain.
But to go into a flat spin (as Gary Charpentier posted stall + yaw)? For a commercial aircraft, it's just not something that happens (and if it does happen, given the altitude of the aircraft when it occurred, only an overload behind the aircraft's CG (Centre of Gravity) would make it pretty much impossible to recover from).
I know it's way too early, but unless there was some particularly odd mechanical/control issue i honestly think the pilots experience, training and evaluations are going to end up being the main centre of the investigation and the ultimate cause of the crash.

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Grant
Darwin NT

i honestly think the pilots experience, training and evaluations

And add to that- the airline's SOP for icing conditions.
Those ATRs are well known for handling icing poorly, and being very susceptible to icing conditions.

There was a NOTAM in effect for severe icing in the area they were flying , at the altitude they were flying. Why didn't they fly at a lower altitude? Were they flying at the recommended speed for such conditions (which apparently is a minimum of 30 knots above the minimum speed to avoid a stall under non-ice conditions). Did they attempt to bank at a higher than recommended angle when turning (under icing conditions it's half or less of the maximum angle for non-icing conditions).
And even they all of that wrong- how did they end up in a flat spin- Using the rudder to turn, with no banking, at a high AOA resulting in a stall???


It's looking like icing may have been the initiator of this crash (no ice, no crash), but even with the ice, avoiding the crash should have been possible.
Or did everything go wrong at once, resulting in sensory overload for the crew, resulting in inappropriate responses to the situation?

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Grant
Darwin NT

Juan Browne - blancolireo - has done a good video already. I'm going to take a stab at what likely will be found. They hit top of decent and reduced power to begin the descent, didn't pitch down immediately to maintain speed. May have also been at a way point for a turn, hence aileron and rudder inputs. Enough ice on the wings to stall with even a small reduction in speed. Spin entry happens very quick. Yaw dampener may have been fairly out of trim. (Possible asymmetric ice formation.) Not expecting it the pilot flying didn't instantly go wings level, full nose down, full opposite rudder, throttles to idle. Of course in IMC you don't have ground reference to see WTF is going on. By the time the first rotation was done it may not have been recoverable. Most twin engine prop (including turboprop) airplanes have very bad or no recovery from a spin. Their rudder simply isn't big enough to counter the rotational momentum of the weight of the engines out on the wings. However continued flight in those icing conditions should have never happened. Declare the emergency and descend to warmer and more dense air.
This is going to weigh heavily on pilot training, procedures and experience.
One thing we will never know is if a large chunk of ice departed one side resulting in asymmetry enough to cause a spin. Perhaps a control input broke it off?

Link to Blancolirio's video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozinSmylTmQ

Hard - Yes.
Impossible - No.

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Bob Smith
Member of Seti PIPPS (Pluto is a Planet Protest Society)
Somewhere in the (un)known Universe?

FDR (Flight Data Recorder) & CVR (Cockpit Voice Recorder) have been recovered (hopefully both were fully functional).

Also there's some more info on the flight from Flightradar24- the ADS-B ground speed data for that flight was unreliable (to put it mildly), but they do have the reported barometric altitude & vertical rate and the Reported true airspeed as graphs.

It's very much looking like ice, and the aircraft with the autopilot on (which apparently is against the aircraft manufacturers requirements for operating in icing conditions).
The air speed was gradually dropping, with no change in altitude. Eventually there was a drop in altitude, then a slight increase, some larger increases, and then it started falling out of the sky.

89 seconds from the first signs of trouble, to the last received data.
Extremely tragic.
;-(
'

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Grant
Darwin NT

Goodness knows what was in his head at the time and we'll likely never know as he died.

Up to 400 people have been evacuated from a hotel in Far North Queensland after a helicopter crashed into the roof just after 2am, sparking a massive fireball.

A helicopter has crashed into the roof of a Cairns hotel, sparking a massive fireball and the evacuation of up to 400 people.

Emergency services were called to the Double Tree Hotel by Hilton about 1.50am to reports of an aviation incident.

A bystander said the helicopter was going incredibly fast before it crashed into the hotel.

“It looked like it was being driven like a racing car at full speed or like a dive bomber... Small helicopter,” they wrote on social media.......

Thankfully no one else was seriously injured.

An update on that chopper crash.

Stolen helicopter on 'unauthorised' flight crashes into roof of Cairns DoubleTree by Hilton hotel in Far North Queensland.

A helicopter that crashed into a Far North Queensland hotel roof was stolen before being taken on an "unauthorised flight", the aviation company it belonged to has confirmed.

The pilot, who has not yet been identified, was alone in the helicopter and died at the scene.

Investigations are continuing into who was flying the aircraft, but Nautilus Aviation CEO Aaron Finn confirmed to the ABC that all its pilots had been accounted for......

Apparently icing of control services are being looked at as it flew through some pretty bad weather.

Icing may have contributed to the crash, but it won't have (shouldn't have!) been the cause.

An aerodynamic stall due to ice doesn't lead to a flat spin...

If the autopilot is left on right up until the bitter end right into an iced-up coffin corner, then anything is possible when that autopilot finally gives up eventually too long after all good sense and hope, when already into a deep stall, with all controls already maxed out.

Any minor asymmetry can then trigger a spin.

And sleepy startled pilots may well take far too long to relearn their training...


In my opinion, all autopilots/autothrottles should give a loud warning a useful many seconds BEFORE they approach this-is-impossible-to-fly limits... Even better, give a visual display of how hard the auto-controls are having to work so as to alert well beforehand of any anomalous conditions developing...


Fly safe?
Martin

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See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
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In my opinion, all autopilots/autothrottles should give a loud warning a useful many seconds BEFORE they approach this-is-impossible-to-fly limits.

As i mentioned in a later post- The Auto Pilot is not meant to be used in icing conditions on that aircraft type, so the Pilot Flying can be aware there are issues building up, before they reach the point of no return.

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Grant
Darwin NT

Partying before flight?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62r7lpx421o

Drugs?, alcohol? and flying a helicopter are not a good combination :-(

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Bob Smith
Member of Seti PIPPS (Pluto is a Planet Protest Society)
Somewhere in the (un)known Universe?

I wonder why it took so long when it was pretty clear at the time that the bus was on the wrong side of the road.

Townsville bus driver charged over triple-fatal Bruce Highway Greyhound crash.

Police have charged the driver of a Greyhound bus involved in a triple-fatal collision on the Bruce Highway in North Queensland in June.

Townsville man Peter Cafe, 52, was arrested on Tuesday and charged with five counts of dangerous operation of a vehicle causing death or grievous bodily harm.

Two German women, aged 21 and 33, and a 56-year-old Townsville woman died on June 30 when the Greyhound bus collided with a four-wheel drive towing a caravan.

Three men, also bus passengers, were hospitalised with serious injuries.

The crash happened on a stretch of the Bruce Highway at Gumlu, which is north of Bowen......

Things now become clearer in superyacht sinking.

Italian authorities have opened an investigation into what happened on the doomed superyacht as a Kiwi captain is grilled for several hours.

Italian authorities have opened an investigation into what happened on doomed superyacht Bayesian after it sank off Sicily — with the captain grilled for two hours.

The bodies of billionaire tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch and his teenage daughter Hannah are among the five bodies divers recovered on Wednesday from the wreckage of his $58 million luxury yacht.

The 59-year-old and his 18-year-old daughter were said to be trapped by two mattresses inside a cabin on the superyacht, according to Italian publication La Repubblica.......

.....Mr Cutfield’s interrogation comes after divers found that the keel, a crucial part of the boat’s structure which helps keep it balanced, had been raised when the yacht was anchored off shore......

Now why was the keel raised while it was anchored offshore and who raised it?

The builder of the yacht speaks out.

Firm that built superyacht Bayesian say ‘human error’ is to blame.

The firm that built tech billionaire Mike Lynch’s superyacht Bayesian that sank off the coast of Sicily say “human error” is to blame.

On Thursday, the head of Italian Sea Group, Giovanni Cotantino, said the tragedy could have been avoided after the $58 million ship capsized in a water spout on Monday morning.

“Everything that was done reveals a very long summation of errors,” Mr Costantino said.

The company, which includes the Perini Navi company, built the luxury 56-metre yacht in 2008.

Mr Costantino told Italy’s Corriere della Sera newspaper that bad weather was forecast and all the passengers should have been gathered at a pre-arranged assembly point, with all the doors and hatches closed.

Security camera footage of the ship from the shore showed the lights on its mast going out, which Mr Costantino said indicated a short circuit, meaning that the ship had already taken on water, AFP reported.

“A Perini ship resisted Hurricane Katrina, a category 5 (hurricane). Does it seem to you that it can’t resist a tornado from here?” he told the publication.

Mr Costantino said it was “good practice when the ship is at anchor to have a guard on the bridge, and if there was one he could not have failed to see the storm coming”.

“Instead it took on water with the guests still in the cabin. They ended up in a trap, those poor people ended up like mice in a trap,” he said.......

Sadly another Cessna Caravan falls from the sky. :-(

A plane carrying tourists has crashed shortly after taking off from Bangkok. All nine on board are believed to have died.

A small plane has crashed in Thailand and all nine people on board, including five tourists, are believed to be dead.

The turboprop plane had departed Suvarnabhumi Airport, the main airport in the country’s capital Bangkok, and crashed shortly after take off in Chachoengsao province on Thursday afternoon, local time.

It has been reported five Chinese tourists (including two children), two flight attendants and two pilots were on board.

About 300 officials were sent to the area to search for bodies, with several human body parts already being found, Thai newspaper Khaosod reported, citing Chachoengsao governor Chonlatee Yangtrong.......

What's taking so long to see that complete 'autonomous driving' is still science fiction.
Questions about the safety of Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ system are growing

Three times in the past four months, William Stein, a technology analyst at Truist Securities, has taken Elon Musk up on his invitation to try the latest versions of Tesla’s vaunted “Full Self-Driving” system.

A Tesla equipped with the technology, the company says, can travel from point to point with little human intervention. Yet each time Stein drove one of the cars, he said, the vehicle made unsafe or illegal maneuvers. His most recent test-drive earlier this month, Stein said, left his 16-year-old son, who accompanied him, “terrified.”

Stein’s experiences, along with a Seattle-area Tesla crash involving Full Self-Driving that killed a motorcyclist in April, have drawn the attention of federal regulators. They have already been investigating Tesla’s automated driving systems for more than two years because of dozens of crashes that raised safety concerns.

The problems have led people who monitor autonomous vehicles to become more skeptical that Tesla’s automated system will ever be able to operate safely on a widespread scale. Stein says he doubts Tesla is even close to deploying a fleet of autonomous robotaxis by next year as Musk has predicted it will.

What's taking so long to see that complete 'autonomous driving' is still science fiction.
Questions about the safety of Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ system are growing

Three times in the past four months, William Stein, a technology analyst at Truist Securities, has taken Elon Musk up on his invitation to try the latest versions of Tesla’s vaunted “Full Self-Driving” system.

A Tesla equipped with the technology, the company says, can travel from point to point with little human intervention. Yet each time Stein drove one of the cars, he said, the vehicle made unsafe or illegal maneuvers. His most recent test-drive earlier this month, Stein said, left his 16-year-old son, who accompanied him, “terrified.”

Stein’s experiences, along with a Seattle-area Tesla crash involving Full Self-Driving that killed a motorcyclist in April, have drawn the attention of federal regulators. They have already been investigating Tesla’s automated driving systems for more than two years because of dozens of crashes that raised safety concerns.

The problems have led people who monitor autonomous vehicles to become more skeptical that Tesla’s automated system will ever be able to operate safely on a widespread scale. Stein says he doubts Tesla is even close to deploying a fleet of autonomous robotaxis by next year as Musk has predicted it will.

Agreed, and not much rattles a 16yr old.

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Savoir-Faire is everywhere!
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It's one accident after another on the Bruce Highway lately. But the latest accident has been the one with the biggest impact, and the result of the diversions due to the accident have resulted in multiple more accidents occurring due to the increased traffic on the detour roads- a detour that adds about 4 hours to the trip.

Section of Bruce Highway between Gin Gin and Calliope to remain closed after truck explosion

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Grant
Darwin NT

That is one big hole in the road!
From another article that provides more details:

The tanker was carrying 42 tonnes of ammonium nitrate, which triggered an explosion.

"Just after 9:40am, a blast was heard and felt and there was a visible large cloud of smoke," Superintendent Burgess said.

"Emergency services were able to review the scene by use of a drone that indicated several spot fires along the rail corridor."

He said the blast radius was about 500 metres.

... No people or personal property have been damaged in the explosion, although some powerlines are down and there are spot fires along the rail corridor.

"Approximately 15 minutes later … the smaller tanker full of product had actually exploded."

The stupidity of some road users know no bounds.
Oh well, at least this idiot will be off the road for 12 months.
Coming to a fast food outlet near you soon (UK)

The stupidity of some road users know no bounds.
Oh well, at least this idiot will be off the road for 12 months.
Coming to a fast food outlet near you soon (UK)

I've been behind cars where the driver is just talking to the passenger & they're spending most of their time looking at the passenger & not the road. And when people use a mobile phone it seems to suck up even more of their attention.
But to be texting, while driving a truck, at highway speeds?
He shouldn't be allowed to drive at all, not just for the next 12 months IMHO.


Oh, and while the people did the right thing in getting out of their car, it goes to show that you should move as far from the edge of the road as you can, and move away from your car towards the oncoming traffic, not away from the oncoming traffic.
ie don't have the car between you and the on coming traffic. If the truck had really collected that car, they would have been wiped out like skittles by a bowling ball.

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Grant
Darwin NT