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SETI@home Science :
Losing hope...
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BaldBear Send message Joined: 21 May 99 Posts: 4 Credit: 5,336,655 RAC: 0 |
I have been running Seti@Home since 1999 and back then I was sure that a signal would be detected during my lifetime. Now that it is 2015 I am not so sure. The optimism of youth is slowly fading. I will continue to run Seti@Home as long as there is a spark of hope. |
Lynn Send message Joined: 20 Nov 00 Posts: 14162 Credit: 79,603,650 RAC: 123 |
Welcome BaldBear to the SETI@home Forums! I don't think there is anyone out there, but it's just me. Like you said, there is a spark of hope. :) |
Bob DeWoody Send message Joined: 9 May 10 Posts: 3387 Credit: 4,182,900 RAC: 10 |
I too have been running the Seti@home software for a very long time. After such a long time it gets harder to believe this venture will ever meet with success but I believe it is best to leave no stone unturned in the search for ET and I will continue to donate my computer's time to crunch data as long as this site is active. Fifteen years in the great big scheme of things isn't really very long at all. Bob DeWoody My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events. |
SciManStev Send message Joined: 20 Jun 99 Posts: 6658 Credit: 121,090,076 RAC: 0 |
This is a search that may well take thousands of years, or a few hours, if it is ever successful. We are a part of that search. Finding a needle in a haystack is simple. Finding evidence of ET is a true challenge. Odds will increase when Green Bank data is analyzed, as the source is targeted planetary systems. The data from Arecibo is what other scientists have collected with their own experiments, and we just piggyback that data. We are limited to about 100 light years for multibeam data, and about 50,000 light years for Astropulse, but either way, with only some adjustment, we are tied to a stripe of data as the earth rotates, both on its axis, and around the sun. If a signal comes a few seconds before or after Arecibo can detect it, then we would miss it completely. Targeted data gives much better odds, but even those are very small. The only thing that is for certain, is that if we don't search, our chances are zero. Steve Warning, addicted to SETI crunching! Crunching as a member of GPU Users Group. GPUUG Website |
Gary Charpentier Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 31012 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 |
Targeted data gives much better odds, but even those are very small. The only thing that is for certain, is that if we don't search, our chances are zero. If we are looking at target A, when the data from target B passes by, we also miss it. Obviously we can't build enough Greenbank or Arecibo dishes to cover the entire sky 24/7. We depend on ET having a METI project sending data in our direction for several years so we will happen to look in the right direction at the right time. IIRC Eric has said he thinks there is an about 1% chance on any given year of finding a signal. Don't make the mistake of saying, if we look for 100 years, we will have found a signal. Even after 1000 years of searching the chance for year 1001 is still just 1%. Personally I think that 1% estimate may be high by an order of magnitude. But it is still worth looking. This despite us finding planets nearly everywhere we look. The term in the Drake equation I more worry about is the length the civilization stays able to message. Right now we face global warming, if ET is at all like us, he will have had to deal with this. |
Julie Send message Joined: 28 Oct 09 Posts: 34060 Credit: 18,883,157 RAC: 18 |
I have been running Seti@Home since 1999 and back then I was sure that a signal would be detected during my lifetime. Now that it is 2015 I am not so sure. The optimism of youth is slowly fading. I will continue to run Seti@Home as long as there is a spark of hope. I believe the WOW signal was real. We do have Universal neighbours and it will only be a matter of time before we will find a signal that can also be confirmed as an alien one, one without governments blowing it away with their lies and deceptions as they did in the past, so help us God. rOZZ Music Pictures |
Marc Send message Joined: 1 Feb 01 Posts: 10 Credit: 1,149,488 RAC: 0 |
The questions I have about how thorough the scanning of the sky is would probably require me to get a degree in astrophysics to understand the answers to... The biggest one is how do you accurately scan in a grid pattern from a ball that's constantly moving and spinning around a sun that's moving, in a universe that's moving and all the targets are moving? Then add in the great distances, so the object you're looking at isn't even there anymore and you can't see what is currently occupying the space.... Is there even a way to truly and accurately scan every inch of the sky in every direction without all the movement throwing things off? |
Bob DeWoody Send message Joined: 9 May 10 Posts: 3387 Credit: 4,182,900 RAC: 10 |
The questions I have about how thorough the scanning of the sky is would probably require me to get a degree in astrophysics to understand the answers to... One word, computers. With great algorithms. Bob DeWoody My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events. |
Gary Charpentier Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 31012 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 |
Is there even a way to truly and accurately scan every inch of the sky in every direction without all the movement throwing things off? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ephemeris |
William Rothamel Send message Joined: 25 Oct 06 Posts: 3756 Credit: 1,999,735 RAC: 4 |
Every SECTOR of the sky could be scanned. That's not the problem--the problem is to rapidly eliminate random noise and known emissions from each and every recorded scan and then to analyze those that remain for intelligent content. I honestly have no idea how well all of the SETI efforts are doing this and which ones would miss or discard a single WOW signal entirely since it is not persistent. |
Julie Send message Joined: 28 Oct 09 Posts: 34060 Credit: 18,883,157 RAC: 18 |
Every SECTOR of the sky could be scanned. That's not the problem--the problem is to rapidly eliminate random noise and known emissions from each and every recorded scan and then to analyze those that remain for intelligent content. Don't lose hope my friend, the Arecibo telescope is a very powerful one, even with its limited range. Wished we still had the Allen Array.. rOZZ Music Pictures |
tullio Send message Joined: 9 Apr 04 Posts: 8797 Credit: 2,930,782 RAC: 1 |
Paul Allen, with his mega yacht, is searching for sunk Japanese battleships and has just found one, sunk in the battle of the Leyte Gulf by American planes. Tullio |
Julie Send message Joined: 28 Oct 09 Posts: 34060 Credit: 18,883,157 RAC: 18 |
Here's your hope! http://liquiddb.net/openshare/theWow!SignalProject/passiton/bell(wowsignal)world-peace.wav copyright liquiddb. (haven't had the permission to share the link) rOZZ Music Pictures |
qbit Send message Joined: 19 Sep 04 Posts: 630 Credit: 6,868,528 RAC: 0 |
I'm absolutly positive there's somebody out there. I'm not sure S@H is the right/best way to find them but it's pretty much the only project in which I can actively participate. So I keep trying. And just imagine how damn great it would be if we would really find something :-) That could be the start of a complete new era for mankind and we all could be a part of that. Well, it could also be the end of mankind but that's another story ;-) |
Dena Wiltsie Send message Joined: 19 Apr 01 Posts: 1628 Credit: 24,230,968 RAC: 26 |
Something people may not understand. The amount of power required to send the signal is so great that the transmitter has to be directional to cover the distance involved. Our receiver antenna is also very directional in order to improve the gain. To receive a signal, both antennas must be pointing at each other.This makes it a waiting game for the moment that everything lines up and that could be this year or 100 years from now. |
Bob DeWoody Send message Joined: 9 May 10 Posts: 3387 Credit: 4,182,900 RAC: 10 |
I too am sure there are other intelligent civilizations in our galaxy. But I'm not sure they want to contact us. Based on the behavior of the more advanced civilizations here on earth toward other less advanced peoples I think we are nowhere near ready to meet our neighbors. Bob DeWoody My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events. |
Julie Send message Joined: 28 Oct 09 Posts: 34060 Credit: 18,883,157 RAC: 18 |
I too am sure there are other intelligent civilizations in our galaxy. But I'm not sure they want to contact us. Based on the behavior of the more advanced civilizations here on earth toward other less advanced peoples I think we are nowhere near ready to meet our neighbors. +1 Look at all the religion based wars going on, just awful:( rOZZ Music Pictures |
SciManStev Send message Joined: 20 Jun 99 Posts: 6658 Credit: 121,090,076 RAC: 0 |
I too am sure there are other intelligent civilizations in our galaxy. But I'm not sure they want to contact us. Based on the behavior of the more advanced civilizations here on earth toward other less advanced peoples I think we are nowhere near ready to meet our neighbors. As many as 400 million people have been killed with just Christianity over the last 2000 years. I have no idea about the other religions. Steve Warning, addicted to SETI crunching! Crunching as a member of GPU Users Group. GPUUG Website |
Gordon Lowe Send message Joined: 5 Nov 00 Posts: 12094 Credit: 6,317,865 RAC: 0 |
Every SECTOR of the sky could be scanned. That's not the problem--the problem is to rapidly eliminate random noise and known emissions from each and every recorded scan and then to analyze those that remain for intelligent content. From what I've been reading, it's a shame about the Allen Array's funding problem. I hope they're able to meet their goals someday. The mind is a weird and mysterious place |
MOMMY: He is MAKING ME Read His Posts Thoughts and Prayers. GOoD Thoughts and GOoD Prayers. HATERWORLD Vs THOUGHTs and PRAYERs World. It Is a BATTLE ROYALE. Nobody LOVEs Me. Everybody HATEs Me. Why Don't I Go Eat Worms. Tasty Treats are Wormy Meat. Yes Send message Joined: 16 Jun 02 Posts: 6895 Credit: 6,588,977 RAC: 0 |
I look at the computer screen every day and wait for my life to jump out at me. How can I be such a loser that I believe bits and pixels will coalesce into my needs, wants, desires, and purpose. What sickness has penetrated my very essence and taken over my soul? What air have I breathed, food ingested, words heard and said, which have brought me to this Void of Innate Being of Nothingness? Oh Great Cosmos of Consciousness, where in the Universe shall I travel and find the Land of my Very Nature? Do I need a GPS? Or An Alien Intervention? Yep, ET fO shO. Nope. Yep. May we All have a METAMORPHOSIS. REASON. GOoD JUDGEMENT and LOVE and ORDER!!!!! |
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