But, as I have asked: Why believe The Future Predictions from the Present Day Scientist, when their PAST Predictions (for the last 18 years) have been incorrect?

Because climate is VERY difficult to formalise to one mathical model.
And scientist are now using four scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways, RPC.
It supersedes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections published in 2000.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways
Earlier predictions might be "wrong" comparing with the new methods and models.

BTW Scandinavia are predicted to be colder because of all the rain that will fall here. Or should I say warmer winters and colder summers:(

But, as I have asked: Why believe The Future Predictions from the Present Day Scientist, when their PAST Predictions (for the last 18 years) have been incorrect?

Because climate is VERY difficult to formalise to one mathical model.
And scientist are now using four scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways, RPC.
It supersedes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections published in 2000.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways
Earlier predictions might be "wrong" comparing with the new methods and models.

Perhaps the 'New' Methods and Model's are also incorrect.

Dont think so. Methods and models are always improving in science.
So far I dont think any scientist have found any evidence that global warming we are seeing now should be an effect of natural causes.

Scientists balk at ‘hottest year’ claims: Ignores Satellites showing 18 Year ‘Pause’ – ‘We are arguing over the significance of hundredths of a degree’ – The ‘Pause’ continues

Claiming 2014 is the “hottest year” on record based on hundredths of a degree temperature difference is a fancy way of saying the global warming ‘pause’ is continuing.”

http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/01/16/scientists-balk-at-hottest-year-claims-we-are-arguing-over-the-significance-of-hundredths-of-a-degree-the-pause-continues/

YES - There has been a Hiatus, of 18 years, in Global Warming.

That has to be explained. Why not?

Those, in this Thread, ignoring and giving no explanations, except for name calling, insults, and unscientific outbursts, are...

But we already know that.

NOTE: NEVER said there will be no Future Global Warming. Only that those name calling, unscientific hysterical insulter's, ARE the problem for any 'Fix'.

Do they understand this? No.

Can they stop? Unfortunately, for The Human Race - No.
____________

Gowd help any kids under your teaching with links like that .
How come deniers all ways use media sources and not the actual sites where the research is happening .
Wonder whom own the source you put up.

Methane does not stay in the north once it's released . I would expect it to go up what with people turning to gas and pipes and fittings leak as well as the dumps which will give of more as temps go up and it decays faster .

But I'm shore Penn and Teller will convince you that you don't need to worry

---

Glenn...

What were the actual numbers?

Was it really that low?

Clyde what numbers !

I have no idea how low was it whatever your talking about !

---

Remember it's the Co2 that is raising temps and melting the north pole and more methane is being released now because of the permafrost melting than what cows and man has released .

Well, that was the theory anyway. The article is of measurements over the Los Angeles Basin, not exactly the North Pole. The way methane gets there is from man's activities. There isn't a lot of cattle farming in the megalopolis of Los Angeles anymore. That means things like trash dumps are putting out far more than predicted, there are a lot of those in a megalopolis. Of course there is also oil under Los Angeles, so that natural occurrence may be the local source. That is why this finding is so very important and must not be dismissed.

Just to come back to this one...

Note that the article explains very nicely how the LA basin is a good example for testing a new instrument for measuring methane concentration throughout the atmosphere. There is another new satellite being launched this year for measuring atmospheric gas concentrations worldwide.

Meanwhile, we already have:


Satellite Data Shows U.S. Methane ‘Hot Spot’ Bigger than Expected

One small “hot spot” in the U.S. Southwest is responsible for producing the largest concentration of the greenhouse gas methane seen over the United States – more than triple the standard ground-based estimate -- according to a new study of satellite data...

... to leaks in natural gas production and processing equipment in New Mexico's San Juan Basin, which is the most active coalbed methane production area in the country...

... "The results are indicative that emissions from established fossil fuel harvesting techniques are greater than inventoried," Kort said. "There's been so much attention on high-volume hydraulic fracturing, but we need to consider the industry as a whole."...


Satellite data shows surprising methane hotspot in US southwest

... The result hints that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other agencies considerably underestimate leaks of methane, which is also called natural gas.

The higher level of methane is not a local safety or a health issue for residents, but is a factor in overall global warming...


Satellite data shows livestock emitted more methane than oil and gas industry in 2004

Analysis of data received from a satellite in 2004 has shown that at least during that year, livestock in the U.S. emitted more methane into the atmosphere than did the oil and gas industry...


Note: Myself, without searching further, I am a little suspicious of that last quote/reference for "cherry-picking" the numbers for one year.


Meanwhile, the general message I personally get from that small sample is that CO2 is our biggest pollution but methane is an important one to clean up also. There is also a very obvious direct conflict there in that what is being measured and studied will directly cost the Fossil Fuels industry money and lost profit to clean up. Hence why we have the ferocious Fossil Fuel's FUD campaign to avoid/defer/procrastinate enforcement to not pollute?


All on our only one planet,
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

... Have they 'Used' these New Models to Re-Evaluate the Past Incorrect Predictions?...

For one example of how climate models are developed and used, see:


climateprediction.net: Global Climate Models

... The equations can then be tweaked so that the model does as well as possible at producing past and current climates (compared to archived observations). If the model accurately reproduces past and current climates it can then be used to try to predict what the climate could do in the future...


You can run the models for yourself and see for yourself, in near "real-time" depending on what computer you use.


All on our only one planet,
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

Micheal i hope for your sack over there all the Fracking hasn't produced cracks in the surface and that is where the gas is coming from .
I've herd whole towns being lifted a few inches because of the amount of gas extraction .
We have underground Coal mines here near me and over the years that is what they have done and gas is released now on the Woronora river not far from where i live and they wish to Frack in the area to .We have lots of Coal and it's the good coal for steel making Black

I hope you don't cause yourself's a big problem and burn literally

---

Micheal i hope for your sack over there all the Fracking hasn't produced cracks in the surface and that is where the gas is coming from .
I've herd whole towns being lifted a few inches because of the amount of gas extraction .
We have underground Coal mines here near me and over the years that is what they have done and gas is released now on the Woronora river not far from where i live and they wish to Frack in the area to .We have lots of Coal and it's the good coal for steel making Black

I hope you don't cause yourself's a big problem and burn literally

I Think we have to worry more about whats happening in Siberia right now then fracking gas spill.
http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0076-how-global-warming-could-turn-siberia-into-a-giant-crater-time-bomb/
The fracking gas spills is however a problem.
I saw a docu about it. From Pennsylvania I Think.
You can ignite the tap water!
Both humans and livestocks are getting sick because of it.

Yes jan that is what i am talking about , the holes are huge .

Siberia is a big place

It's also responsible for at least 1 mass extinction in earths history

---

Yes jan that is what i am talking about , the holes are huge .
Siberia is a big place
It's also responsible for at least 1 mass extinction in earths history

Indeed.
But that was because of the effects from a super volcany.
The increasingly warmer sea also led to huge amounts of methane, a very aggressive greenhouse gas released from the seabed. The result was a runaway greenhouse effect that raised the Earth's average temperature for a further 5 ° C. A total of outbreaks and the consequences it could have raised average global temperatures as much as 10 ° C
Yes 5° C increase causes extinctions. 10° C increase causes mass extinction.
For now its looks like the 5° C increase of temperature are going to happen.
And thats only within decades...

... The link YOU supplied, and referred to.

http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/01/16/scientists-balk-at-hottest-year-claims-we-are-arguing-over-the-significance-of-hundredths-of-a-degree-the-pause-continues/ ...

Clyde,

You are playing FUD and confusion.

That link is from your post.

With my comments about the ridiculous sponsored bias of that source and comments.


Please at least keep to the real world facts.


All on our only one planet,
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

Glenn...
What were the actual numbers?
Was it really that low?

Clyde what numbers !
I have no idea how low was it whatever your talking about !

Glenn...
The link YOU supplied, and referred to.
http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/01/16/scientists-balk-at-hottest-year-claims-we-are-arguing-over-the-significance-of-hundredths-of-a-degree-the-pause-continues/
Scientists balk at ‘hottest year’ claims: Ignores Satellites showing 18 Year ‘Pause’ – ‘We are arguing over the significance of hundredths of a degree’ – The ‘Pause’ continues
Are the numbers, in YOUR supplied link, really that low?
If not. What are the real numbers?

Clyde...
There are no "real numbers".
Climate is a very complex system and also chaotic.
I Think you have heard the expression that a butterfly can cause a hurricane somewhere else.

I Think we have to worry more about whats happening in Siberia right now then fracking gas spill.
http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0076-how-global-warming-could-turn-siberia-into-a-giant-crater-time-bomb/

The fracking gas spills is however a problem.
I saw a docu about it. From Pennsylvania I Think.
You can ignite the tap water!
Both humans and livestocks are getting sick because of it.

Thanks for the good link. Interesting article.

Note the physics behind that:

Methane Hydrate phase diagram




Further details on Wikipedia: Methane clathrate


In short, if you assume normal atmospheric pressure, then any methane clathrate that has accumulated below surface ice will 'melt' as much as 10 deg C before the surface (water) ice can melt. The clathrate will then release 169 times its volume as gas. That adds up to a lot of quickly released gas pressure.

A likely scenario is that the surface holds back that released methane gas pressure until breaking point. You then get a gas pressure explosion which likely liberates yet more methane clathrate gas as the pressure is suddenly reduced for that temperature. Quite a good positive feedback to give a good big bang. About 11 tons of TNT equivalent quoted in the news article.


A good bubble of that from 300m down in the ocean or a deep lake could well sink a ship!

And all that is needed is for mankind to warm further the thousands of years of methane clathrate accumulations around the world...

Reckless or WHAT?!


All on our only one planet,
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

... What are the true numbers?...

Clyde,

Please see my earlier post and follow the links and read and be educated.


We have good numbers that are continuously refined to get closer to reality. That is the progress of science.

Regardless, we have very good numbers since nearly 200 years ago that we are cooking ourselves and the entire planet with our industrial pollution. That was refined to our "decade now" back in the 1960's by a then secret study for President Nixon.


We and our planet have followed that prediction for President Nixon very closely including the timing and including the resultant political strife from the various consequences.

You have 200 years of numbers that consistently say the same thing: We MUST clean up our industry and farming or a large part of humanity get killed off.


So procrastinate yet further?

We have the positive technology and solutions. Why perpetuate the ongoing Fossil Fuels industrial corruption?


All on our only one planet,
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

... We have good numbers that are continuously refined to get closer to reality. That is the progress of science.

Regardless, we have very good numbers since nearly 200 years ago that we are cooking ourselves and the entire planet with our industrial pollution. That was refined to our "decade now" back in the 1960's by a then secret study for President Nixon.


We and our planet have followed that prediction for President Nixon very closely including the timing and including the resultant political strife from the various consequences.

You have 200 years of numbers that consistently say the same thing: We MUST clean up our industry and farming or a large part of humanity get killed off.


So procrastinate yet further?

We have the positive technology and solutions. Why perpetuate the ongoing Fossil Fuels industrial corruption?

So... I got my dates wrong. We've had the scientific predictions for exactly what is happening now from since OVER 100 years ago:


Some Early and Important Works on Climate Science, Carbon Dioxide, and Human Influence

1827: "On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space," Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier...

1861: "On the Absorption and radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction," John Tyndall...

1896: "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground," Svante Arrhenius...

1908: "The greenhouse theory and planetary temperatures," Frank Very...



The 1979 JASON report (and Charney report) presented to President Nixon are listed:

The Long Term Impact of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Climate, JSR-78-07, April 1979 ("JASON study", pdf)

This report addresses the questions of the sources of atmospheric carbon dioxide, considers distribution of the present carbon dioxide among the atmospheric, oceanic and biospheric reservoir and assesses the impact on climate as reflected by the average ground temperature at each latitude of significant increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide.



Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment ("Charney Report", pdf)

Report of an Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate...



And see this excellent talk on the USA political fun since then!

The American Denial of Global Warming

Presented by

Naomi Oreskes, Ph.D.
Professor of History
Science Studies Program
University of California, San Diego

The Truth about Denial

“The problem with Americans is that they haven’t read the minutes of the previous meeting.” – Adlai Stevenson


Thank you all for being here.

So my talk begins with the work of our own Governor Schwarzenegger who, in 2005, announced the Western Governors Climate Initiative, and when he made this announcement he said the following:

"I say the debate is over.

We know the science.

We see the threat, and we know the time for action is now"...



You can see that on Youtube: The American Denial of Global Warming - Perspectives on Ocean Science, by University of California Television (UCTV)

Polls show that between one-third and one-half of Americans still believe that there is "no solid" evidence of global warming, ...



An incredible response to an unfolding story...

We can't say that we didn't see it coming!


All on our only one planet,
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

... Try a Double Scotch. Works for me.

Try that with this show to explain your numbers:


Youtube: The American Denial of Global Warming - Perspectives on Ocean Science, by University of California Television (UCTV)


(Stay moderated enough so that you can appreciate the numbers? ;-) )

Still all on our only one planet,
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

Some say hiatis. Some say no change in the past 26 years. Some say hottest year on record. Some auy 14 out of 15 record hot years in a row.

Figures don't Lie but liars can figure.

Who's lying ?

... Try a Double Scotch. Works for me.

Try that with this show to explain your numbers:
Youtube: The American Denial of Global Warming - Perspectives on Ocean Science, by University of California Television (UCTV)
(Stay moderated enough so that you can appreciate the numbers? ;-) )
Still all on our only one planet,
Martin

Which numbers?
You do have very long posts, which refuses to answer a simple question.
Has anyone Re-Evaluated the 'Old Predictions', using the 'New Models', to see if they are any better than the Faulty 'Old Models', regarding the present Hiatus?
Answer?

I think they have re-evaluated old predictions.
Why do you think that scienists are using new models and methods now?

... Try a Double Scotch. Works for me.

Try that with this show to explain your numbers:


Youtube: The American Denial of Global Warming - Perspectives on Ocean Science, by University of California Television (UCTV)


(Stay moderated enough so that you can appreciate the numbers? ;-) )

Still all on our only one planet,
Martin

... regarding the present Hiatus?

Answer?

Hey! You're the teacher:

You tell us how ice is forced to melt and what happens...

You tell us about the thermal mass of water and about the expansion and contraction of materials vs temperature...


Or are you just trolling the same old broken denial?


Meanwhile, still the reality remains the same:

Still all on our only one planet,
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)

... Did you answer the question?

Let's see if you can for yourself get beyond the lazy armchair Scotch...


You first to convince us:

You tell us how ice is forced to melt and what happens...

You tell us about the thermal mass of water and about the expansion and contraction of materials vs temperature...


Or are you just trolling the same old broken denial?

Meanwhile, still the reality remains the same:

Still all on our only one planet,
Martin

---

See new freedom: Mageia Linux
Take a look for yourself: Linux Format
The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3)