@John - You are quite correct in that it is being seen that the Lib Dem win was down to a good candidate, a strong & supportive local party, and a popular Council. Yes it was highly regrettable that the previous MP had to stand down for the reasons he did. But while in the job, he was a good and popular MP, who worked hard with the local party for the local people. The people wanted that local commitment to continue. The various allegations in the press were previously known about, but clearly the timing of the latest revelations was deliberate for obvious reasons. I doubt if the media will change much in the future. Certain newspapers want a change of government next election, and they will continue to attack the present one, hoping to influence peoples votes the next time round.

@Nick - Oh dear, sorry about that! I'm just an interested observer giving my own opinion, some of which is based on others views that I also agree with.

The country in the form of local by-elections does speak, always has done, it's like a half term school report.

Speaking in Downing Street, Mr Cameron said: "It is a disappointing result for the Conservative Party, but it is clear that, in mid-term by-elections, people want to register a protest

And 83% of UKIP voters said they wanted to send a message they were unhappy with the party they usually support nationally, compared with 35% of all voters.

Source BBC

I disagree with your swing figures though.

Liberal Democrat, Mike Thornton, 13,342, 32.06%, -14.44% swing
UKIP, Diane James 11,571, 27.80%, +24.20% swing
Conservative, Maria Hutchings, 10,559, 25.37%, -13.93%
Labour, John O'Farrell, 4,088, 9.82%, +0.22% swing

A -19% overall swing. Source Eastleigh. Lib Dem and Tory both had a nominal -14% swing away, a 1/2% difference is insignificant. But there are many different elections.

The General Election - Where you vote for the next government
The Council elections - where you vote for who runs your local council
The MEP elections - where you vote for your MEP

In between times there are local by-elections where it is necessary to elect a new MP or a new local Councillor, Eastleigh was for a new MP. However, all parties monitor these local ones carefully to determine any swing to a particular party that is being repeated over the country, and which might affect the next general election if not addressed. The Council elections are happening this year for England, and next year for London. If there was a discernible swing across the country in any one direction in change of Council leadership, that could be an indication of peoples intentions in 2015. If UKIP start getting 24% extra Council seats over the next two years, alarm bells will ring! But it is known that people quite often vote differently locally than nationally.

Eastleigh was a Lib Dem stronghold, and they were expected to win, but by what margin was not known. But it was being seen as a useful mid term dipping of the toe in the water, which is why all the main parties threw their full weight behind it. Knowing the likely result, of course some Labour & Tories used UKIP as the protest vote, which will be taken into account in that context. I wouldn't agree that Clegg has come away with no clout. If they had lost I would agree that his position would have been weakened, but they won, and handsomely, given all the odds. The interesting thing now is UKIP's future, I give them the same chance as the SNP, shades of Reginald Perrin, and one swallow does not a summer make!

After Eastleigh, Clegg can go back to Cabinet and say, look here, you can't ride roughshod over us any more, the country has spoken. It's too early yet to fully take in all the ramifications of recent events, but I feel it is exciting times for the countries politics. Most people alive haven't lived under a Coalition before, the last times was WWII for quite different reasons. We need to remember how to do it for the benfit of the Country.

Your beginning to sound like a "run of the mill politicians" here Chris!!
The country never speaks via bi-elections but only during general elections.
The swing away from the libs was greater than it was away from the cons. So
basically Cleg comes away from this election with no clout at all.

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The Kite Fliers

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Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

I think Clegg and the winning Lib Dem candidate deserved the win, and on local issues.

The By-election came from a scandal, and the papers kept Clegg running with different statements as if that scandal is important to the voters.

Despite all this local issues got them back, quite rightly. The rest is unimportant to that electorate, the country and only important to the players in each scandal.

I hope the Parliamentary bubble media shut up some time rather than continuously stirying to break new non-news.

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It's good to be back amongst friends and colleagues

Richard, I really do not think that you can compare the UK with Italy!!! For a start off, they have had 39 Prime Ministers since 1940. Their politicians and Governments are controlled by the Mafia, their economy is shot, and they and Spain are just about to be bailed out to the tune of £600 Billion by the EU. Italy/Spain

Of course an attractive female candidate is going to attract the phoar vote, as indeed any charismatic candidate would do. But you cant judge someone by an acceptance/losing speech in the small hours if the morning, when they are dead on their feet after a month of 18 hour days canvassing, that is just not fair.

if the protagonists were Silvio Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo? Great fun, and brilliant television -

Berlusconi has been involved in a number of controversies and over 20 court cases during his political career, including a conviction for tax evasion in October 2012, though he was not jailed. He was criticised for his electoral coalitions with right wing populist parties (the Lega Nord and the neo-fascist National Alliance) and for apologetic remarks about Mussolini, though he also officially apologised for Italy's actions in Libya during colonial rule. While in power, Berlusconi maintained ownerhsip of Mediaset, the largest media company in Italy, and was criticised for his dominance of the Italian media. His leadership was also undermined by sex scandals.

Grillo is often criticized for his lifestyle. In particular, critics blame him for owning a motor yacht and a Ferrari sports car, both being in contradiction with his well known environmentalist stance. In his blog he admits that he did, in fact, acquire both but has since sold them.[16] Grillo recently defended himself from similar attacks from the leader of the Democratic Party on this subject pointing out he earned his pay over the years and paid his taxes on them while the Hon. Pier Luigi Bersani made his fortune from public tax free money.

Grillo is also criticized for taking advantage of the Condono Tombale, a fiscal amnesty granted by the first Berlusconi government in 2001, which Grillo publicly opposed. Grillo commented on this issue during the V‑Day demonstration. He said that he had personally benefitted by only €500.

Grillo has proposed that members of the Italian Parliament who have a criminal record should be barred from public office. As Grillo himself has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter caused by a car accident, his critics say he has no right to represent Italians either. Grillo has always stated that he is not interested in becoming a member of the Italian Parliament anyway. Despite this, in July 2009 he publicly expressed his intention to present himself as a candidate for the PD's primary elections, which, however, does not imply automatic presence in the Italian parliament.

You couldn't have picked two more typical crooks, con-men, and spivs if you tried! They wouldn't be allowed within 100 miles of the UK Parliament let alone standing in an election!! We enjoy PMQ because it is the Government reminding the opposition how they brought the country to its knees over 10 years, the mess they left behind, and the fact that they have no plans or policies of their own to tackle it.

but I doubt the country would be better governed as a result.

You only doubt? I know damn well it wouldn't be!! We need to wait a few days and let things die down, and then look at where we are. The Lib Dems have earned their right to enjoy their euphoria, and the other parties need to be given time to lick their wounds and come back out with a new strategy. The days have gone of the old two party system taking Buggins turn to run the country.

Welcome to our Brave New World, Aldous Huxley would be proud of us :-)

At the moment I think he is the best deal we can get. I might disagree with his politics, but no-one else comes close to his performances at the Dispatch Box. At PMQ he just slaughters Milliband, it's an artform in its own right.

I think that's one of the unplanned, and unhelpful, side effects of the media age on democracy. As we've just seen in Italy, the competent but drab technocrat lost out badly at the polls: the charismatic media tycoon, and the comedian, were big winners. What would UK PMQs be like if the protagonists were Silvio Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo? Great fun, and brilliant television - but I doubt the country would be better governed as a result.

I stayed up for the declaration last night, and one thing that struck me - but hasn't been mentioned in any of the commentaries I've heard - was the difference in personality between the two ladies - the UKIP candidate in second place, and the Conservative in third place. I suspect UKIP earned the protest vote - at least in part - because they fielded a plausible and personable candidate, and the tories didn't: at least, that's the impression I gained from those two brief TV speeches - they may come over differently when not dog-tired at the end of an intense campaign.

You make some interesting comments William, I'll try to answer some of them.

If UKIP voters make up 15% of the population,

They don't I can assure you. Most observers are seeing this latest UKIP blip as simply the result of a protest vote. It's a message to Labour, you're not wanted back. To the Tories must do better. To the Lib Dems stop squabbling and get on running the Country.

So the Conservatives came third, eh? Some people realised that Cameron maybe wasn't such a great idea?

At the moment I think he is the best deal we can get. I might disagree with his politics, but no-one else comes close to his performances at the Dispatch Box. At PMQ he just slaughters Milliband, it's an artform in its own right. And he is standing up to Europe.

They sold out too much of their ideals when they formed a coalition with the Conservatives.

At the last General election we had a "hung" Parliament which meant that no single party had an overall majority. One option was to let the winner with the most votes, the Tories, form a minority Government. But they would never have got any legislation through Parliament because all the other parties would have joined together to defeat them each time. It would have meant another General election in a few months. They cost millions of pounds to hold and contest, and wasn't in anyones interests, the country or the parties. A coalition Government was the only sensible way forward.

The Lib Dems went to talk to the incumbent Government Labour, but they refused to do a deal, so they went to talk to the Tories. Cameron was desperate to be PM, and the Lib Dems were desperate to be in Government for the first time in 100 years. At that point both sides knew they simply had to thrash out a deal, there wasn't any other option, not just for them but for the country. Some of their Manifesto policies had to be abandoned, when they both agreed what would form the basis of the Coalition Government. There was already broad agreement on a number of issues which got rubber stamped, the rest were negotiated. Where agreement couldn't be reached, it was agreed that they would campaign separately and have a debate and vote in Parliament.

What has happened since is that Cameron has tried to run things like a Tory majority Government, when it 'aint! Choosing to cherry pick what he will or wont accept from the Coalition agreement, which isn't acceptable. That is why when he reneged on the agreement to Lords reform, the Lib Dems had no choice but to oppose the Boundary changes. It wont affect most Lib Dem MP's anyway, but it could have gained the Tories 20 seats in 2015!

After Eastleigh, Clegg can go back to Cabinet and say, look here, you can't ride roughshod over us any more, the country has spoken. It's too early yet to fully take in all the ramifications of recent events, but I feel it is exciting times for the countries politics. Most people alive haven't lived under a Coalition before, the last times was WWII for quite different reasons. We need to remember how to do it for the benfit of the Country.

I would like to bang a few heads together .....

So, the LibDems retained their seat.

While I'm not particularly fond of the LibDems, vastly better than UKIP.

If UKIP voters make up 15% of the population, something is going massively wrong in the UK. Far right parties gaining that much support is always an alarm signal.

So the Conservatives came third, eh? Some people realised that Cameron maybe wasn't such a great idea?

And the massive loss for LibDem doesn't surprise me. They sold out too much of their ideals when they formed a coalition with the Conservatives.

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A person who won't read has no advantage over one who can't read. (Mark Twain)

*tiptoes in wearing heavy armour*

Ok, I'll start us by reposting Winterknights kind summary:

Turnout was 52.7%, down from 69.3% at the 2010 general election.


Mike Thornton (Liberal Democrat) 13,342 (32.06%, -14.48%)

Diane James (UKIP) 11,571 (27.80%, +24.20%)

Maria Hutchings (Conservative) 10,559 (25.37%, -13.96%)

John O'Farrell (Labour) 4,088 (9.82%, +0.22%)

Danny Stupple (Independent) 768 (1.85%, +1.56%)

Dr Iain Maclennan (National Health Action Party) 392 (0.94%)

Ray Hall (Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party) 235 (0.56%)

Kevin Milburn (Christian Party) 163 (0.39%)

Howling Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party) 136 (0.33%)

Jim Duggan (Peace Party) 128 (0.31%)

David Bishop (Elvis Loves Pets) 72 (0.17%)

Michael Walters (English Democrats) 70 (0.17%, -0.30%)

Daz Procter (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 62 (0.15%)

Colin Bex (Wessex Regionalist) 30 (0.07%)

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A person who won't read has no advantage over one who can't read. (Mark Twain)

This won't mean too much over the pond, but it has certainly shaken UK politics up. The Lib Dems were always expected to win but not by that big a majority, and the UKIP performance was quite a surprise. Even the "Beer, Baccy, & Crumpet Party" polled 235 votes! And the Lib Dems won the Berrylands by-election as well on the same day!

Isn't life Grand?

Eastleigh