Muddling through again

"El Pais, Spain: "The German chancellor has rejected any compromise to change the order of the factors in the salvatory equation: you must first create control and accountability systems and only then will debt be shared. Apparently she does not feel under pressure from fear of the euro dying"

Has anyone stopped to think why Ms Merkel is adamant about al this? She knows the rest of the Eurozone leaders too well & while they continue to dither, Germany gets stronger so when the collapse happens, it won't be all that painful for Germany....

.... & I really can't fault her for that!

Nope, neither can I, Sirius....

---

The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

Yeah, shame that instead of strong leaders here, all we get is a bunch of monkeys with their fingers up their ..............

---

& if they haven't....she sure has....

---

It looks like full financial integration is the only way out for the PIGS.
I certainly though don't see this integration making life any easier for
them in the short term. Can the PIGS take working under it.....we shall see
once integration does come about - if it does. How will France take to it all,
for they voted for a spending government and will now end up with a thrifty
one instead....will they accept this???

---

The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

I never thought I'd see myself say this....but I agree 100% with her, as if she sticks to her guns, the Euro is dead - not now or the very near future, but it will be dead!

I can't see Spain,Italy,France, Greece or Portugal stick to the austerity plans or the tight financial budgets set by Brussels if they get their banking union - that in itself, will be the cause Europe implodes.

Where we're concerned, I'm just hoping the muppets in charge do not take us any further into European integration - that will be our "John Donne"

---

Nick, sorry for the shots -- you are right, you're too reasonable and intelligent for a Mosley advocate.

We simply disagree as to the best path for Europe over the next 10 years -- you seem to advocate that 'short sharp blow to the head' -- bet you rip band aids off rather than work them off. <smile>.

Still, with a deep enough Merkelpression in southern Europe, those southern Europe vacations will be a lot less expensive (though perhaps not as much fun for German tourists.....).

Regarding those vacations -- we've been there. In the past 10 years, three different vacations in Italy and one in Greece. Though we'd NEVER vacation there in August -- one has to be British to like those places then <smile>.

Sirius - sort of a relative thing -- if life in southern Europe for the next 10 years is '20 per cent worse' and life in Germany is also '20 per cent worse' -- then life in Germany will be more spartan, but life in southern Europe (which is already not so nice for many) might get down right devastating.

I can see it now, Africans migrate to Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece. Native Greeks, Italians, Portuguese, and Spaniards migrate north. After all, where did the Celts come from....

Has anyone stopped to think why Ms Merkel is adamant about al this? She knows the rest of the Eurozone leaders too well & while they continue to dither, Germany gets stronger so when the collapse happens, it won't be all that painful for Germany....

Agree, but don't forget the rest of the Eurozone, all of us are going to suffer one way or another.

Do you honestly think that those in charge "really" do give a damn about those at the bottom?

---

I never thought I'd see myself say this....but I agree 100% with her, as if she sticks to her guns, the Euro is dead - not now or the very near future, but it will be dead!

I can't see Spain,Italy,France, Greece or Portugal stick to the austerity plans or the tight financial budgets set by Brussels if they get their banking union - that in itself, will be the cause Europe implodes.

Where we're concerned, I'm just hoping the muppets in charge do not take us any further into European integration - that will be our "John Donne"

I suspect that Cameron will not commit us to anything in the way of further
support to this Euro currency. Financially, on balance of payments with the
rest of the ECM, we gain if our exports/imports within the ECM collapse to
zero. It's just knowing though whether or not we end up out of pocket after
we have had to pay for the social costs involved with those people that may
subsequently become redundant resulting through these lost exports.
According to a pamphlet issued by Lord Rees-Mogg, back in the very early
2000's the answer then was no. But our exports and imports to the ECM have
grown over the years mainly because more of the European countries we traded
with have subsequently gone on to join the ECM later.

.but I agree 100% with her

I'm in the same Merkel boat with you too, Sirius. At the moment she has all
the trump cards and knows the correct way of how to play them too.

---

The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

I'm probably going to get well hazed on this....but...

... I think Merkel is becoming the German "Maggie" in that she is thinking of her nation 1st.

---

Some light relief....

Merkel said "nein,nein" to Italy so Italy says, bye bye Euro 2012 Germany... so Italy hit them with 1 goal for every nein..... :)

Well, maybe just the one nein - Germany leaves Euro 2012 - shame it wasn't the Euro itself.... :)

---

Nick, sorry for the shots -- you are right, you're too reasonable and intelligent for a Mosley advocate.

We simply disagree as to the best path for Europe over the next 10 years -- you seem to advocate that 'short sharp blow to the head' -- bet you rip band aids off rather than work them off. <smile>.

Still, with a deep enough Merkelpression in southern Europe, those southern Europe vacations will be a lot less expensive (though perhaps not as much fun for German tourists.....).

Regarding those vacations -- we've been there. In the past 10 years, three different vacations in Italy and one in Greece. Though we'd NEVER vacation there in August -- one has to be British to like those places then <smile>.

Pheeeeew!!! I though I was going to lose a pal...

bet you rip band aids off rather than work them off. <smile>.

Baz', only as long as there's no hairs stuck to the underneath of them....
...I'm not that brave (he-he).

Hey, we both stick to our guns because we each feel our solution is the correct
one. I tell you, Baz'; strange as it may seem, "WE'RE BOTH RIGHT". For in the
short term I feel my philosophy is correct to deal with the issues at hand. Yet
further down the line, in time, your philosophy will be the correct one to
adopt....and it will be one, when the time and situation is right, that I'll be adopting too.
This recession/depression is not a consumer lead one, like they
normally are, no, this is a debt driven one and I say it's a totally different
ball game and has to be played out under different rules.
Rule (1). Clear/reduce your debt at any cost.
Rule (2). Inflate your economy once debt is back under control and fully
manageable.
Rule (3). There ain't no rule number 3...."Monty Python"
Rule (4). Don't ever get in this situation again....Hurrr! some hope!!

---

The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

You forgot one....

5) Ensure all taxes collected & then NOT wasted on stupid social initatives.

---

Regarding those rules -- in some ways it is interesting what has transpired in the US.

1) State debt is constrained from the git go by state constitutions (with some exceptions -- California is a mess).

2) Consumer debt is down a lot in the past three years -- though to some degree that's due to the foreclosure mess.

3) Inflation of economy -- in the US there's the rub -- nothing further to be expected from the Federal government -- if anything, with congressional paralysis we'll see something of the 'German solution' come January 2013 -- unless Congress can act (read bad joke), sequestration will kick in automatically to reduce expenditures AND the Bush tax cuts will sunset raising revenues. Jolt to the economy -- figure about 2% off of GDP in 2013.

4) Don't ever get there again -- in the US -- no way to protect from that, especially with the Citizens United vs US decision by the Supreme Legislature which INSURES that big companies will have an ever increasing role in governance (as in lack of regulation).

Hey, we both stick to our guns because we each feel our solution is the correct
one. I tell you, Baz'; strange as it may seem, "WE'RE BOTH RIGHT". For in the
short term I feel my philosophy is correct to deal with the issues at hand. Yet
further down the line, in time, your philosophy will be the correct one to
adopt....and it will be one, when the time and situation is right, that I'll be adopting too.
This recession/depression is not a consumer lead one, like they
normally are, no, this is a debt driven one and I say it's a totally different
ball game and has to be played out under different rules.
Rule (1). Clear/reduce your debt at any cost.
Rule (2). Inflate your economy once debt is back under control and fully
manageable.
Rule (3). There ain't no rule number 3...."Monty Python"
Rule (4). Don't ever get in this situation again....Hurrr! some hope!!

Agree on all taxes --- I'm making a presumption that not all social initiatives are stupid or bad though.

You forgot one....

5) Ensure all taxes collected & then NOT wasted on stupid social initatives.

What next....
How to battle deflation when it comes. Well, if Elliott wave theory is any thing
to go by then expect to see crude oil sweet US drop from it's current level
of $77 down to $25 or lower. Deflation is a killer to all economies, I feel we
have got this to contend with fairly soon.

---

The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

2) Consumer debt is down a lot in the past three years -- though to some degree that's due to the foreclosure mess.

Baz'...
This is what compounds upon the problem that Governments are having to deal with.
Two levels of debt, 1). Government. 2). Consumers. These together also drive
down inflation and can herald in deflation. To get out of deflation is not
simple so pumping up the economy by giving banks loads of cheap money will not
work. The government will have to physically inject money into the economy via
infrastructure projects but they have to time this right. Do it too early and
the benefits will soon fizzle out. But you do have to have the money available
first plus inject this money into the economy when it is most likely that
other countries economies are equally likely to pick-up . I don't think the West has
circum to deflation since way back in the 1930's, anyway, we shall see.
Yet, providing your national debt is not too high then when you break free from
deflation you are then able to keep a sound cap on inflation....this is where
some countries are going to have big problems though in being able to cap it.

---

The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

Don't forget no 3 Nick.

Banks - with the scandal just breaking on the "Libor" rate, remember the rest of the world looks to London for this as well, the confidence & trust of the people has been drastically broken.

I feel that this is going to make matters extremely worse in that people will ask - "Why bailout banks when all they've been doing is swimming in the trough rather than supping from it".

---

But will he use it a second time?

Think it's time we had a referendum over here on European Membership.

---

But not if the Germans agree to help float the Euro without demanding immediate austerity...

What next....
How to battle deflation when it comes. Well, if Elliott wave theory is any thing
to go by then expect to see crude oil sweet US drop from it's current level
of $77 down to $25 or lower. Deflation is a killer to all economies, I feel we
have got this to contend with fairly soon.