3: What next.......

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Nick
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Message 1251966 - Posted: 27 Jun 2012, 6:58:51 UTC

One consequence of the weaker economies leaving the Euro is that German exports (which are a major engine of the German economy) encounter two separate problems -- first, they lose the markets (that they are still exporting to now) for their goods and second, the Deutscheuro gets revalued upward which drives German export profits down -- those factors will adversely effect German economy big time.

Baz....
I think even Germany will have to agree that they can't continually survive
on a low Euro. To create some semblance of balance, especially to offset future
inflation, Germany will need to see the value of the Euro increase. We are
getting into some complicated economics here now. There is already some talk
of there being evidence of a price increase bubble starting to form in Germany
but I expect we will have to wait and see if this is factual or not.


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Message 1251971 - Posted: 27 Jun 2012, 7:12:24 UTC - in response to Message 1251963.  

What I was pointing out was the difficulty of 'they' here. While it might be possible to condition things regarding Spain, I suspect that Italy and France, or, more likely Spain, Italy and France together, just might be able to block the actions of Belgium, Luxembourg and Germany in this sort of action.

Yes, as in the failure of Greece, they just might be able to hold the budgets of Spain and Italy hostage -- basically telling them that national depressions are a good thing. I just don't see those nations (and they are still nations, Brussels notwithstanding) submitting.


Which ever way one turns here, Baz; "There's sure gona' be trouble at mill"...for
someone. The German federal elections are due September 2013 so until then I
just can't see Merkel doing anything that could be read as being detrimental,
in the German peoples eye, to their economy. This means there's no chance of
Germany underwriting Euro members bond debts directly, so no Euro bond to
be created this side of next year.


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Message 1252073 - Posted: 27 Jun 2012, 12:50:56 UTC

Raise you 10 bill €'s

Come in number 1, your time's up!

A threat to London

”A credible EU banking supervisor is the right demand, the EBA in its present form is not credible,” said a senior EU official". So how long will we have to wait until you state the obvious....."The EU & Euro, in it's current configuration is not credible?

Vicky Redwood, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, has written a missive on whether leaving the EU would damage the UK economy:

A referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU seems to be becoming a more realistic prospect. We think that concerns about the economic disruption if the UK were to leave are overdone. In fact, the economy could end up better off.

So what would be the effects on the economy if the UK were to leave? Pessimists point to the potential adverse effect on UK trade, as the EU would then in theory be free to impose on UK exports the “common external tariff” which applies to all goods imported into the EU. There are also concerns of a drop in inward investment to the UK if she cuts her connections with the rest of Europe.

However, there are several reasons why in reality the UK would be unlikely to suffer much. For a start, the UK could leave the EU but still be part of a free trade agreement with the rest of Europe. Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland are all outside the EU but are part of the European single market through their membership of the European Economic Area.

Meanwhile, there are likely to be many benefits to leaving. The UK would escape all manner of regulations coming from Brussels which may be restricting UK growth – in particular relating to businesses. The BCC (perhaps not impartially) estimates that the annual cost of EU regulation for UK firms is £7.4bn. And George Osborne has recently faced a struggle with the EU to allow the UK to impose tighter capital regulations on UK banks than the minima agreed under Basel III. The UK would be free to adopt stricter immigration controls than at present; or if it wanted to maintain relatively free travel, it could become part of the Schengen Area of free movement. Well stated Vicky
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Message 1252079 - Posted: 27 Jun 2012, 13:05:46 UTC

Federal plan to save the Euro

"European leaders have drafted a radical plan to turn the 17 countries of the eurozone into a full-fledged political federation within a decade in an attempt to placate the financial markets by demonstrating a political will to save the single currency in the medium-term".

What about the "Long-Term"? Are you thinking "We're happy supping in the trough & want to ensure that our retirement plans are secure - leaving the long term to those who come after you?

Shame on you - leaving your crap to your children & children's children to deal with!
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Message 1252084 - Posted: 27 Jun 2012, 13:21:26 UTC

Tinderbox?

Just wondering which is going to come 1st: -

Europe recovering or Churchill's ghost giving the order "Set Europe Aflame"?
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Message 1252085 - Posted: 27 Jun 2012, 13:29:05 UTC - in response to Message 1251971.  

True, the issue is how to do something that all the involved countries can accept -- which is back to my point regarding sovereignty - for Germany as well as Spain, Italy, France.

It may be that for Germany the full discussion of plus and minus for each strategy (for Germany's economy( needs airing out. I suspect that unlike the US polity, some degree of 'complex/compound' discussion might work. Default and depression in any combination of France, Spain and Italy is not going to help the German economy.




Which ever way one turns here, Baz; "There's sure gona' be trouble at mill"...for
someone. The German federal elections are due September 2013 so until then I
just can't see Merkel doing anything that could be read as being detrimental,
in the German peoples eye, to their economy. This means there's no chance of
Germany underwriting Euro members bond debts directly, so no Euro bond to
be created this side of next year.


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Message 1252369 - Posted: 27 Jun 2012, 23:43:49 UTC

We all know what happens when a fast moving object hits an immovable object....

..so get ready for the biggest crash in history.

Euroverse's big bang
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Message 1252531 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 6:31:34 UTC - in response to Message 1252369.  
Last modified: 28 Jun 2012, 6:39:53 UTC

We all know what happens when a fast moving object hits an immovable object....

..so get ready for the biggest crash in history.

Euroverse's big bang

Stick by your guns Merkel, your doing the right thing for both Germany and
economics common sense. If the ailing countries in the ECM don't like it then
they always have the option of leaving it...taking their debts with them.
My advice to Brussels, "If you wish to save the ECM you have but one choice
currently open to you...kill-off-the-Euro or else your going to kill-off the
ECM"
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Message 1252534 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 6:39:30 UTC - in response to Message 1252531.  

Nick, the interesting thing here is that Spain's budget is actually closer to the old style Euro targets than most of the other countries. Spain is staring at a severe recession. With the interest rates they are seeing, that recession will be converted to a depression without some help.

Guess what, in a depression, the Spainish budget deficit will get .... wait for it .... LARGER. Is that what Merkel wants? Is that what you think is best? I really didn't take you for a larger deficit sort of guy. Who knew?
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Message 1252548 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 7:09:15 UTC - in response to Message 1252534.  
Last modified: 28 Jun 2012, 7:11:58 UTC

Nick, the interesting thing here is that Spain's budget is actually closer to the old style Euro targets than most of the other countries. Spain is staring at a severe recession. With the interest rates they are seeing, that recession will be converted to a depression without some help.

Guess what, in a depression, the Spainish budget deficit will get .... wait for it .... LARGER. Is that what Merkel wants? Is that what you think is best? I really didn't take you for a larger deficit sort of guy. Who knew?

Yes Baz; I was previously to my last posting reading these figures about
Spain's budget deficit. What Spain could do with now is growth to help pay
towards their ailing debts. This could happen if they stepped outside the Euro.
The debt to GDP figure set by Brussels as a pre-requisite of joining the Euro
most probably never took into consideration the event of a severe recession
or depression setting in. It looks to me possibly that this figure should have
been set lower. Especially poignant here is that most Euro currency members,
once joining, then permitted their Debt to GDP to deteriorate fairly soon after joining.

Merkel clearly has more facts available to-hand over this ECM debt business,
than we do, so feels that more bailing's out here is no longer the answer to
the problem. So yes, Spain's deficit will get larger and I think Merkels mind-
set is possibly focused much towards Germany's past and how they learnt the hard
way about sound economics good-husbandry. I feel she has no faith in some of
these Euro currency members ever mending their ways even after being bailed out.
The reason why she is pushing for Brussels to take complete control over all
Euro currency members finances. I can read her mind quite clearly, "You either
let us bail you out and in the process let Brussels run your finances our
way or else you can go to the wall" If they go to the wall then after
they have eventually recovered most will have adopted the German way of running
things....for sure.
The Kite Fliers

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belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.
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Message 1252610 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 12:44:31 UTC - in response to Message 1252588.  
Last modified: 28 Jun 2012, 12:44:52 UTC

If the ailing countries in the ECM don't like it then they always have the option of leaving it...taking their debts with them.

Them we run the risk of human economic migration. Remember within the Eurozone there is free movement across borders, with a Euro passport. France can't man customs points and stop destitute Spanish coming in, for example.

No they can't, "at the moment", but France is not the best example of a country
to reference to here, they'll end-up doing what ever they choose to - to suit
themselves under any given circumstance when the heat gets turned up.
May be I scoff a bit here, Chris; but then you'll get no better from me regarding
the ECM, a set-up that clearly chose to "sprint" before it ever learn't to
walk properly. The chickens here have started to come home to roost and farmer
E.C.M. Giles hasn't got any hen house vacant for his chickens - he's let them
all out to the "PIGS"....and these PIGS weren't his, unfortunately. These PIGS
need feeding too and he's not got enough food to feed these along with his own
chickens so there's going to be a God-almighty rumpus around the farm yard
soon. His chickens ain't gonna be happy having to survive, at best, on rations.

Britain got involved in the European plight on to separate occasions during
the previous century and at great cost to us and no real benefits to show
for our sacrifices. I just hope that this time around we take a back seat on
this ECM Euro plight for we should have learnt our lesson by now.
The Kite Fliers

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Message 1252696 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 16:38:45 UTC - in response to Message 1252548.  

Nick, I think one of the issues here that seems to be in play is the question of -- is it the European Union and the Eurozone or is it the German Reich and the Merkeuro.

It is pretty clear where Merkel sits on this one -- but it seems she lacks much in the way of allies in this contest.

I still think that forcing ALL countries non-compliant with the 3% limit is not prudent -- (I think that would limit participation to less than a handful of countries by the way).

Much of the German economy's success over the past decade plus has been due to the Eurozone which allowed it to expand exports -- eliminating the Eurozone will undermine that foundation of the German economy (my opinion).

That said, it clearly should not be a free pass for southern Europe -- and that is the conundrum.
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Message 1252772 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 18:02:53 UTC - in response to Message 1252696.  
Last modified: 28 Jun 2012, 18:04:13 UTC

Nick, I think one of the issues here that seems to be in play is the question of -- is it the European Union and the Eurozone or is it the German Reich and the Merkeuro.

It is pretty clear where Merkel sits on this one -- but it seems she lacks much in the way of allies in this contest.

I still think that forcing ALL countries non-compliant with the 3% limit is not prudent -- (I think that would limit participation to less than a handful of countries by the way).

Much of the German economy's success over the past decade plus has been due to the Eurozone which allowed it to expand exports -- eliminating the Eurozone will undermine that foundation of the German economy (my opinion).

That said, it clearly should not be a free pass for southern Europe -- and that is the conundrum.

Baz, Germany is successful purely because it did all the right things to make
itself so. It set itself up well during the first part of this millennium by
using cheap money to finance inwards investment. The rest of us ninny ECM
members chose to use the bulk of this money to finance social initiatives...all
fool us!! Did Germany expand exports through ill means or were their products
bought because of their competitive price and superior quality. So one has to
ask, "why did the ECM chose to buy German rather then French, Italian, Spanish
or British.

Is it the German Reich and the Merkeuro, Well, ask the PIGS this question and
the answer may well be, "Not at the moment but to get us out of the mire then
for the time being we wish it was".

Eliminating the Eurozone will hit Germany's economy, to my mind this collapse
in the Eurozone is possibly going to happen anyway. To this end then Germany
already has this scenario in mind so wishes not to be caught with a whole load
of ECM debt around it's ears especially if it's has to ratchet up it's own
debt to try and make good on lost export revenues.
The Kite Fliers

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Message 1252778 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 18:14:26 UTC - in response to Message 1252772.  

Nick, if Germany was running the Deutschmark, instead of the Euro, a large piece of the competitive price would have been undermined by the rising value of their national currency compared to others. The Euro has to a fair degree, provided the Germans competitive cover.

Regarding social programs -- aside from too early retirement (and I agree most European countries need very much to change these provisions), much of the programs the other countries have are not far different from those in place in Germany.

It strikes me that Europe, far more than the US, has major cultural differences which reflect in how their economies work. It seems that in the north (particularly in Germany) the thinking was that a common currency would make the other countries more 'German' economically (which would require cultural changes). I think it was sold to those other countries in part because they believed a common currency would make the Germans more 'European'. Turns out they are both quite wrong.

Clearly a (in theory correctable) difference is the culture of tax evasion in many European countries. The off books economy seriously undermines government budgets.

It seems your view is that this crisis is all on the other European countries. My view is that Germany has been (and was at the outset) complicit in the games behind the Euro (in part for its own national interests) and shares a greater degree of responsibility than you seem to hold them to.
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Message 1252782 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 18:21:20 UTC - in response to Message 1252610.  

Interesting -- in the US there are some on the edge of the right wing who believe the same thing.

I for one see NOT living under Nazism domination as a real benefit that has accrued to the UK (and the US). It is rather curious that you don't see it this way. Somehow I didn't not take you for a Chamberlain, Halifax, or at the edge a Mosley advocate.




Britain got involved in the European plight on two separate occasions during
the previous century and at great cost to us and no real benefits to show
for our sacrifices. I just hope that this time around we take a back seat on
this ECM Euro plight for we should have learnt our lesson by now.

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Message 1252801 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 18:55:03 UTC - in response to Message 1252782.  

Interesting -- in the US there are some on the edge of the right wing who believe the same thing.


I for one see NOT living under Nazism domination as a real benefit that has accrued to the UK (and the US). It is rather curious that you don't see it this way. Somehow I didn't not take you for a Chamberlain, Halifax, or at the edge a Mosley advocate.


Baz, I'm not aware that the UK entered WW2 because it feared being invaded by
Germany? Had Germany eventually overrun the continent how long would the Nazi
state have been able to hold itself together?...Most probably no longer than
that of the remaining life of A.H. Upon his demise I do suspect the whole system
would have collapsed inwardly due to infighting between the various factions.
The thing here is Baz; I'm no pacifist and when the financial debacle in the
world has finally run it's course many people will view cake as a luxury to
eat.

It seems your view is that this crisis is all on the other European countries. My view is that Germany has been (and was at the outset) complicit in the games behind the Euro (in part for its own national interests) and shares a greater degree of responsibility than you seem to hold them to.

This could be true but all fool the other Euro countries for falling for it.
Brussels pushed this issue of the common currency and it was the governments
of the subsequent joining member countries who miss-lead their electorate over
the benefits to joining it. The PIGS are not blame free for they are complicit
in the whole affair. The Euro is failing because the PIGS caused it to fail
because raising their game to Germany's level was quite beyond their collective
abilities.....they must have known this from the start.




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Message 1252805 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 19:12:39 UTC - in response to Message 1252801.  

Your view of the threat to England's security presented by Nazi Germany differs from mine -- by a great deal (and it sounds like you would have been more of a Mosley (ie not a pacifist) advocate than a Chamberlain or Halifax supporter -- but that's going to be a topic for another thread.

Surely all the nations who joined into the Euro were sold (or selling) something of a bad bill -- for this, the decision of the UK to not play seems to have been the correct one. Clearly the UK has been fully insulated from the travails of the Euro and its affect on the global economy. Well, not so fully... I suspect that there are some in the UK who want to see defaults and exclusions from the Euro for Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal -- after all, it will make those August holidays a LOT less expensive..
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Message 1252811 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 19:17:15 UTC

You can't throw stones at houses you don't live in. At present we are better of in Europe exercising our power of veto, and negotiating matters to benefit the UK. Clearly we need to re-negotiate our terms of Membership, and if that can't be done to our satisfaction then we should leave. But if we do it will leave us at their mercy.


You can't throw stones at houses you don't live in

May be not but I sure can "BANG" on their doors though!!

The question here is, Chris; how are we better off in Europe?...certainly
not financially as we both know the figures here.



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Message 1252818 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 19:30:20 UTC

(and it sounds like you would have been more of a Mosley

Baz, you've not judged my character to well here your miles off target,
anyway, stop picking on me co's I'm really a nice boy plus I don't have
any pictures of Adolph adorning my walls.

I suspect that there are some in the UK who want to see defaults and exclusions from the Euro for Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal -- after all, it will make those August holidays a LOT less expensive..

Oi you, stop dragging the barrel here!!...it's not the Baz' I've come to know.
Tell me, Baz'; what's Mitt Romney's take on this Euro situation??

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Message 1252819 - Posted: 28 Jun 2012, 19:30:50 UTC

Muddling through again

"El Pais, Spain: "The German chancellor has rejected any compromise to change the order of the factors in the salvatory equation: you must first create control and accountability systems and only then will debt be shared. Apparently she does not feel under pressure from fear of the euro dying"

Has anyone stopped to think why Ms Merkel is adamant about al this? She knows the rest of the Eurozone leaders too well & while they continue to dither, Germany gets stronger so when the collapse happens, it won't be all that painful for Germany....

.... & I really can't fault her for that!
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