3: What next.......

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Message 1250987 - Posted: 24 Jun 2012, 18:11:45 UTC - in response to Message 1250982.  
Last modified: 24 Jun 2012, 18:19:20 UTC

Nice post Nick, but if they unpeg the mark, what currency will they end up using - The mark or the Euro?


Might call it the Euro Mark and have only France join it and no one else.



..which brings us back to "the big 2" who so far, has wrecked Europe on 3 occasions....Will the rest of the continent allow them to do it again? That is the question!
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Message 1251188 - Posted: 25 Jun 2012, 7:06:10 UTC - in response to Message 1250987.  
Last modified: 25 Jun 2012, 7:14:31 UTC

Nice post Nick, but if they unpeg the mark, what currency will they end up using - The mark or the Euro?


Might call it the Euro Mark and have only France join it and no one else.



..which brings us back to "the big 2" who so far, has wrecked Europe on 3 occasions....Will the rest of the continent allow them to do it again? That is the question!

Well, in some ways I feel that the Common market when initially formed should
only have just involved these two countries tying themselves together
economically. This may still come about if the ECM was to collapse and lessons
learnt as to where it all went wrong. With a reformation with just Germany and
France involved with other countries hovering around the periphery. If then
any mad-cap unionist's come along spouting stupidity about creating a super
European state then all will know where to shove them? If this joint set-up
between Germany and France fails then this will effect only them and not the
whole of Europe. Most probably it would fail eventually for I could not see
France pulling it's fair weight. If this was to happen then this tells us that
there is no solution to permanent peace in Europe, by creating unions between
countries and that we will just have to hope that Europe has grown out of
wanting wars with anyone. Lets face it, the ECM has got itself in this mess
with the Euro all because many years ago someone thought it was a good idea
to tie two European countries together in some way economically. To this end
several minor ECM member countries have got themselves into terrible debt and
for what...in hopes that Germany and France wont make war against each other
again. Who's gained the most then from this ECM pact? yup the two countries
that all are trying to stop fighting each other....Germany and France....
...I'm not too sure if this was how it was supposed to turn out with all
other ECM countries paying to keep both France and Germany at permanent peace
with each other. But then, these other ECM members have only got them selves to
blame for this, joining the ECM knowing full well that they could never keep
pace financially with it. It is a rich mans club and unfortunately for some of
these ECM members, "They can no longer afford to pay the subs anymore". Their
putting their fees on their credit cards and can't even afford to pay off the
interest now on the debt let alone any off the capital.
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Message 1251397 - Posted: 25 Jun 2012, 17:06:45 UTC - in response to Message 1251394.  

Yep, them & this is sure to save the EU.....

France must find 12bn in savings

..well reducing the retirement age to 62 is sure gonna help.
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Message 1251412 - Posted: 25 Jun 2012, 17:30:01 UTC
Last modified: 25 Jun 2012, 17:40:19 UTC

Euro should be put to the sword

"EU leaders arriving in Italy last week were, perhaps undeservedly, spared death by the sword. They will, however, be held to account by investors, whose dwindling patience is murdering the euro". & because they were spared the rod, they went on to knock England out of Euro 2012 - cheeky chappies!

Bailouts won't work We knew that, you're preaching to the choir!

Mork to Mindy - Nanu,Nanu We knew this would happen as well, any new news?

Some light amongst all the doom & gloom I think that all the Euro leaders/Bankers should hold the next summit there - they just might learn something!
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Message 1251418 - Posted: 25 Jun 2012, 17:36:19 UTC - in response to Message 1251229.  

If they had kept with the original 6 it may well have worked.

In the fruit bowl of Europe they foolishly allowed too many bad apples to be
placed inside it. Healthy apples don't turn bad apples good it works the other
way around. In the end all the apples will turn bad unless someone throws out the
deceased ones early. The only hope for this consortium is if it does fail
and on reformation one selects only the best quality fruits to sit side-by-side
with one-another.

A golden opportunity lost/wasted in making Europe a formidable trading block.
All because it was placed in the hands of the wrong type people to organise
and run it. With Europe the philosophy became "Quantity" and not "Quality"
so someone high-up "Merkel" needs to change this and drive forwards for
Quality. Has she the courage to save the ECM by driving the dross out with
then a total reformation of whats left taking also a mighty big hammer to
Brussels.....the seat of the problem.

The Kite Fliers

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Message 1251425 - Posted: 25 Jun 2012, 17:39:44 UTC

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Message 1251434 - Posted: 25 Jun 2012, 17:48:11 UTC - in response to Message 1251412.  
Last modified: 25 Jun 2012, 18:17:17 UTC

"EU leaders arriving in Italy last week were, perhaps undeservedly, spared death by the sword. They will, however, be held to account by investors, whose dwindling patience is murdering the euro". & because they were spared the rod, they went on to knock England out of Euro 2012 - cheeky chappies!

Good ol' Italy, deserved to win...they were far the better team. This is the
type of thing we wont for the ECM, to be full of winners and not losers.
In football, the losers get kicked out from the competition, in the ECM the
losers...well need I say anymore!! other than to say their allowed to carry
on playing.
The Kite Fliers

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Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.
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Message 1251442 - Posted: 25 Jun 2012, 17:53:56 UTC - in response to Message 1251434.  

I was disappointed that Greece lost. I thought there would be some sort of poetic justice in a Euro semi with Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.



Good ol' Italy, deserved to win...they were far the better team. This is the
type of thing we wont for the ECM, to be full of winners and not looser.



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Message 1251478 - Posted: 25 Jun 2012, 18:55:22 UTC

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Message 1251596 - Posted: 25 Jun 2012, 22:07:29 UTC - in response to Message 1251478.  

Sirius -- but who's not paying taxes -- folks not earning money, or corporations off shoring?

You do realize if you crumble an economy (austeritize it), you WILL reduce tax revenues, right?

This is a core problem with austerity budgets -- if the government budget represents a large enough piece of the economy (and it Europe that's especially so -- it is in the US to a lesser degree as well), cutting that budget, reduces the economy. If you reduce the size of the economy you reduce the revenues to the government. Nasty business trying to negotiate a deficit reduction when the national and international economies are contracting.

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Message 1251621 - Posted: 25 Jun 2012, 23:29:01 UTC - in response to Message 1251596.  

Yes I do know. Just hightlighting the fact the "politico's" don't know what they're doing.
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Message 1251636 - Posted: 26 Jun 2012, 1:20:07 UTC - in response to Message 1251621.  

Ah -- OK -- now that's new data <smile>.

Yes I do know. Just hightlighting the fact the "politico's" don't know what they're doing.

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Message 1251713 - Posted: 26 Jun 2012, 6:53:28 UTC - in response to Message 1251596.  
Last modified: 26 Jun 2012, 6:54:34 UTC

This is a core problem with austerity budgets -- if the government budget represents a large enough piece of the economy (and it Europe that's especially so -- it is in the US to a lesser degree as well), cutting that budget, reduces the economy. If you reduce the size of the economy you reduce the revenues to the government. Nasty business trying to negotiate a deficit reduction when the national and international economies are contracting.



But, Baz; there is a limit to how much a government can afford to spend on
attempting to re-float it's economy. With respect to Greece they have clearly
reached this limit if well-not exceeded it. I feel strongly that, in the case of
Greece, loaning billions of Euro's to support their economy is not going
to do anything if much to help them. Greece is in the unfortunate position of
not being able to pay these loans off. To me they have no choice but to leave
the Euro now and face having to live from hand-to-mouth until this depression
ends. If Greece does not take this action then every tax payer in the rest of
the ECM is going to have to pay towards supporting Greece for ever and a day.
Situations like this will eventually lead to the downfall of the ECM, this ECM
is currently being run akin to a charity. Charities survive on benevolence but
business can not, the ECM is a business and it's high time it was run so to
reflect this.

Anyway Baz; nothing coming from me that will have surprised you here...I'm
still staunch austerity....live by the sword - die by the sword (he-he).
The Kite Fliers

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belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.
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Message 1251721 - Posted: 26 Jun 2012, 7:12:14 UTC - in response to Message 1251713.  

Nick, I agree there is a limit -- and in the case of Greece it frankly hasn't been a case of spending additional to re-float a messed up economy. The Greek economy was messed up several years ago, and increasing austerity has been forced on Greece for over two years. It is a case of timing for sure.

For Greece the seeds of their meltdown were sown many years ago -- all the projects for the Olympics were going on 10 years or more ago (with a lot of the money for those projects going to German contractors and skilled labor, and a lot going into waste/corruption). So, I agree that austerity needs to be in place -- I just don't know if the *additional* austerity Germany is looking for because the first couple rounds of austerity have shrunk the economy to a degree that for some reason folks didn't anticipate.

Greece also needs to figure out how to stop the lost revenue that its substantial off books economy is causing and to figure out how to get its corporations not to cook their books to reduce their piece of the pie. I suspect to the extent that austerity needs to be increased in Greece it should be going off the higher wealth portion of the population as well. It is really difficult to balance the books on the elderly and unemployed (short of having the elderly die off more quickly due to denied medical care I suppose).

As to leaving the Euro -- I understand -- but that is something of a Pink Floyd solution (a short sharp blow to the head). Leaving the Euro not only means default on Euro loans (which will cause bank problems in Europe as well as the US), but also a severe national depression (and destitution) as nothing will prop up the economy for years (might be great for tourists though).






But, Baz; there is a limit to how much a government can afford to spend on
attempting to re-float it's economy. With respect to Greece they have clearly
reached this limit if well-not exceeded it. I feel strongly that, in the case of
Greece, loaning billions of Euro's to support their economy is not going
to do anything if much to help them. Greece is in the unfortunate position of
not being able to pay these loans off. To me they have no choice but to leave
the Euro now and face having to live from hand-to-mouth until this depression
ends. If Greece does not take this action then every tax payer in the rest of
the ECM is going to have to pay towards supporting Greece for ever and a day.
Situations like this will eventually lead to the downfall of the ECM, this ECM
is currently being run akin to a charity. Charities survive on benevolence but
business can not, the ECM is a business and it's high time it was run so to
reflect this.

Anyway Baz; nothing coming from me that will have surprised you here...I'm
still staunch austerity....live by the sword - die by the sword (he-he).

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Message 1251723 - Posted: 26 Jun 2012, 7:24:02 UTC
Last modified: 26 Jun 2012, 7:25:07 UTC

As to leaving the Euro -- I understand -- but that is something of a Pink Floyd solution (a short sharp blow to the head). Leaving the Euro not only means default on Euro loans (which will cause bank problems in Europe as well as the US), but also a severe national depression (and destitution) as nothing will prop up the economy for years (might be great for tourists though).

Baz, this amounts to the ECM having to act as a charity to Greece to stop
any contagion throughout the West. Feasible possibly if only Greece was in the
mire, but there are others following in their shadow.
The Kite Fliers

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Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.
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Message 1251727 - Posted: 26 Jun 2012, 7:42:45 UTC - in response to Message 1251723.  

Nick, yes, I understand that. Though it may be looked at as 'self-interested' charity.

1) The ECM is going to be hit badly either way -- via default or long term (and quite sketchy loans).

2) I suspect the ECM will also get hits from defaulted long term contracts that will die with no payments for existing open balances.

3) One consequence of the weaker economies leaving the Euro is that German exports (which are a major engine of the German economy) encounter two separate problems -- first, they lose the markets (that they are still exporting to now) for their goods and second, the Deutscheuro gets revalued upward which drives German export profits down -- those factors will adversely effect German economy big time.

On the plus side I suppose, there will be all that low cost labor with Greek skilled folks and semi-skilled folks being the new Turks for Germany and other countries.

Consider this though -- Greece leaves the EU, Spain leaves the EU and it comes tumbling down.

I just think that scenario results in long term (10 years or more) wide spread economic distress.

I suspect these are calculations that are going into the efforts to avoid these currency and national economy dominoes.
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Message 1251770 - Posted: 26 Jun 2012, 11:21:55 UTC
Last modified: 26 Jun 2012, 11:22:36 UTC

Well it's started: - many may not see it yet, but the foundations for the road to Europe exploding has just been laid.....will it get built is the question now...

Draft plans for Brussels to control Europe's finances
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Message 1251830 - Posted: 26 Jun 2012, 21:55:24 UTC - in response to Message 1251770.  

That is your classic Brussels approach to problems -- when was the last year just about any country but Germany was compliant to the 3% 'rule' previously agreed to?

That sort of change would require acceptance by each country I suspect -- chances of that happening -- about the same as the Lib-Dems being the dominant party in the UK.





Well it's started: - many may not see it yet, but the foundations for the road to Europe exploding has just been laid.....will it get built is the question now...


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Message 1251952 - Posted: 27 Jun 2012, 6:19:52 UTC - in response to Message 1251830.  
Last modified: 27 Jun 2012, 6:25:34 UTC

That is your classic Brussels approach to problems -- when was the last year just about any country but Germany was compliant to the 3% 'rule' previously agreed to?

That sort of change would require acceptance by each country I suspect -- chances of that happening -- about the same as the Lib-Dems being the dominant party in the UK.


Baz, if they agree to this financial control then austerity measure will be
forced upon both Spain Italy and France. It makes you think that the boys
inside Brussels know that unless austerity measures are implemented then there
will not be enough money available to bail many more of them out.
The Kite Fliers

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belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.
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Message 1251963 - Posted: 27 Jun 2012, 6:52:35 UTC - in response to Message 1251952.  

What I was pointing out was the difficulty of 'they' here. While it might be possible to condition things regarding Spain, I suspect that Italy and France, or, more likely Spain, Italy and France together, just might be able to block the actions of Belgium, Luxembourg and Germany in this sort of action.

Yes, as in the failure of Greece, they just might be able to hold the budgets of Spain and Italy hostage -- basically telling them that national depressions are a good thing. I just don't see those nations (and they are still nations, Brussels notwithstanding) submitting.





Baz, if they agree to this financial control then austerity measure will be
forced upon both Spain Italy and France. It makes you think that the boys
inside Brussels know that unless austerity measures are implemented then there
will not be enough money available to bail many more of them out.

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