But not if the Germans agree to help float the Euro without demanding immediate austerity...

Baz, at the moment they have gone for the European Central Bank (ESB) to be
permitted to under-write Euro currency members bank debts. The idea being that
this removes debt liability off the relevant banks governments books. A bit of
creative accountancy so to speak, that got most of us in to trouble in the first place.
Basically, America is now heavily involved since it loaned the ECB $108 billion.
So this ECB support will now help out both Spain and Italy and should reduce the cost
of their borrowings in the bond market, providing if, of course, both countries can keep
their expenditures under control....that is a big "IF". Bascially, the ECB is
buying time for the PIGS and more will need to be done in support in time to come.
Now then, whether this permits the PIGS to issue shed loads of money to their
banks with the proviso that the banks then use this to buy their governments
bonds, at a reduced interest rate, remains to be seen. All then underwritten
by the ECB because the banks debt is now protected by them. But to my mind
this is a bit of a shenanagism because true market forces are not able to be
truely reflected now in the PIGS bond interest rate. Hey, it's OK for
governments now to frig their bond market interest rates but not for banks
to frig their LIBOR rate. There's a high element of ring fencing going on here
with the ECB. The way it works is that the ECM countries finance the ECB, the
ECB underwrites the ECM's banks, the ECM banks continue to buy their governments
bonds. We now have a closed loop which means that, especially in the PIGS case
their goverments are still underwriting their own banks but with a lowering in
liability because other countries now take on a share of the PIGS banking liabilities too.
Providing that the ECB can stay solvent and not have to make
too many calls on ECM governments to help maintain it's balance book then
no too many problems should arise. To me though this has all the hallmarks of
spreading contagion wider than it need be, so interesting times still to come.
I just hope, Baz; you don't need that $108 billion back in a hurry!!!

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The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

Nick, I doubt the US expects that money back soon. Then again, in most cases the bail out money provided domestically has seemed to be rather a good investment, particularly considering the alternatives. About the only bad thing about that bailout money is the inadequate strings placed on compensation to the uber rich at the top of the bailed out food chain.

Nick, I doubt the US expects that money back soon. Then again, in most cases the bail out money provided domestically has seemed to be rather a good investment, particularly considering the alternatives. About the only bad thing about that bailout money is the inadequate strings placed on compensation to the uber rich at the top of the bailed out food chain.

I haven't read the full details on this new agreement yet, Baz; so not sure
of the strings attached. But I do know that the ECB has put itself at the
bottom of the chain if any underwritten bank does collapse, well I don't
suppose they have much choice here. After their meeting last night, Merkel
did iterate that she wont allow a Euro bond to be issued whilst she's still
alive?...is she asking to be assassinated!! Also Brussels will be permitted
now to be more involved in the PIGS internal finances but that does not go
to say that Brussels can intervene here though. It's the start to a federal
banking and finance system that will result in the Euro currency members
loosing overall sovereignty over their governments in time, a hell of a
stumbling block to set before ones populace to swallow. One wounder's how
the American's would take it if the whole of the American continent formed
itself into an America Common Market (ACM) with an unelected body of
officials put in to run it placed somewhere down in Argentina. Just how well
would that go down in Vermont or Vancouver!!

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The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

Another good post Nick.

Increasing or/and prolonging the agony?

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Another good post Nick.

Increasing or/and prolonging the agony?

Well, for one thing, Sirius; their going to invest this growth money into infrastructure
and the likes rather than plonk it straight into a whole load of banks vaults.
Something the PIGS should have done back 12 years ago. The same thing the UK
should have done 12 years ago too but unfortunately back then we had a Labour
government "pretending" to be running this place. As regards, "increasing or
prolonging the agony" is down to balance. Yes, countries must spend a certain
amount to keep their economies ticking over and also another amount to pay down
their debts. I say they should spend the bulk on clearing their debts first with
the remainder spent on inwards investment. Then switch these expenditures around
once they can see positive signs in world growth beginning to turn upwards.
I think it's still to early to be putting to much money into inwards investment
at the moment because debts are so high that they may not be able to cap
inflation when it eventually takes off. With PIGS bond interest rates set so
high the market is telling you, "Pay down your debt" yet I don't see the PIGS
doing this effectively. Yes, the PIGS will now pay a lower interest rate but
paying a lower rate for all the wrong reasons. The PIGS are still in the "Last
chance saloon"...can anyone smell alcohol?

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The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

Can't smell any alcohol yet, but there sure is a funny "Weedish" smell about the place........

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It does look to me that in the face of fairly united opposition to her 'hard money' stance, Merkel 'blinked'. Seems that the desire to have a crash sooner which some of you feel is the best solution looking at the long terms has been pushed back yet again in the hope that holding off on at least some of the austerity while seeking milder forms of controls is what was agreed to.

I suppose we'll see this revisited by the end of the summer though.

It really looks like Merkel did more what I expected than what Nick and Sirius hoped for.

It does look to me that in the face of fairly united opposition to her 'hard money' stance, Merkel 'blinked'. Seems that the desire to have a crash sooner which some of you feel is the best solution looking at the long terms has been pushed back yet again in the hope that holding off on at least some of the austerity while seeking milder forms of controls is what was agreed to.

I suppose we'll see this revisited by the end of the summer though.

It really looks like Merkel did more what I expected than what Nick and Sirius hoped for.

Hey Sirius, Baz' is poking a stick at us two.

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The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

Say what? From your posts you wanted (and believed) that Merkel would take and impose a very hard tight money line. You certainly noted that this would likely cause some real short term economic pain, particularly for southern Europe.

I advocated a less draconian approach and believed that Merkel, in the face of relatively united opposition would back off.

I may be crowing a bit here -- but NOT poking a stick. <smile>

Hey Sirius, Baz' is poking a stick at us two.

Hey Sirius, Baz' is poking a stick at us two.

I don't think so Nick. He's seen one aspect of the problem, we're seeing one of the others.

I think Barry's view is the one that will come to pass, unfortunately, that will just be building up the pressure for when the "cooker" eventually blows, & blow it will, it's just a case of when.

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Say what? From your posts you wanted (and believed) that Merkel would take and impose a very hard tight money line. You certainly noted that this would likely cause some real short term economic pain, particularly for southern Europe.

I advocated a less draconian approach and believed that Merkel, in the face of relatively united opposition would back off.

I may be crowing a bit here -- but NOT poking a stick. <smile>

Hey Sirius, Baz' is poking a stick at us two.

Unfortunately she was getting beat-up by a load of looser in that meeting
last night, Baz'. Still, the PIGS had better beware, "They may have got their
meat & gravy last night but they may end up with just bread & water in the long run"... I'm coming out fighting...LoL....

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The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

Hey Sirius, Baz' is poking a stick at us two.

I don't think so Nick. He's seen one aspect of the problem, we're seeing one of the others.

I think Barry's view is the one that will come to pass, unfortunately, that will just be building up the pressure for when the "cooker" eventually blows, & blow it will, it's just a case of when.

At the moment I can't see how it can come about unless Merkel totally
capitulates...."I wish I could see around corners"...

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The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

Well, it seems Nick has been a tad 'sensitive' of late. <giggle>

Now Sirius -- never would take him for being sensitive <smile>.

It does seem though there are a handful of us here who can disagree and be rational about it. This is a good thing. Keeps us out of the 'my god is bigger than your god' threads.

I think he meant shaking not poking .... ;-)

Shaking a stick at somebody, of course, is a threatening gesture, or at least one of defiance. "Nothing worth shaking a stick at” means nothing of value"

You should have seen it, Chris; It was ginormous in length...OK-OK-OK I fess-up,
it wasn't a poke...it was a tickle-lickle-lickle....

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The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

Well, it seems Nick has been a tad 'sensitive' of late. <giggle>

No I haven't!...I haven't you know, I haven't - haven't - haven't...stomp! -
stomp - stomp!!....OUCH!, I've just stomped on my big toe!!!!

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The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

ROTFLMAO, you guys crack me up at times ....

Oh how "tattyfilarious",....tattybye..

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The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

I suppose we could play over in one of the God threads -- a lot of back and forth between all of us just to keep the back and froth from ID to ID out of sight.

I suppose we could play over in one of the God threads -- a lot of back and forth between all of us just to keep the back and froth from ID to ID out of sight.

Oh noooooo you've got to be joking, Baz; that's the God bothering thread.
You go first then, Baz; I will follow and what's the plan of attack??

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The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

I baggsy I stay at HQ and man the field telephones. What are your call signs?

Jesus! I never gave that a thought? I know, how about, "The People's Liberation Front of Judea"...for me?

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The Kite Fliers

--------------------
Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet
belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes.

Ah yes, and I'll go for 'The Summarian Restoration Collective'

I baggsy I stay at HQ and man the field telephones. What are your call signs?

Jesus! I never gave that a thought? I know, how about, "The People's Liberation Front of Judea"...for me?