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Sirius B Send message Joined: 26 Dec 00 Posts: 24909 Credit: 3,081,182 RAC: 7 |
Nice post Nick, but if they unpeg the mark, what currency will they end up using - The mark or the Euro? ..which brings us back to "the big 2" who so far, has wrecked Europe on 3 occasions....Will the rest of the continent allow them to do it again? That is the question! |
Nick Send message Joined: 11 Oct 11 Posts: 4344 Credit: 3,313,107 RAC: 0 |
Nice post Nick, but if they unpeg the mark, what currency will they end up using - The mark or the Euro? Well, in some ways I feel that the Common market when initially formed should only have just involved these two countries tying themselves together economically. This may still come about if the ECM was to collapse and lessons learnt as to where it all went wrong. With a reformation with just Germany and France involved with other countries hovering around the periphery. If then any mad-cap unionist's come along spouting stupidity about creating a super European state then all will know where to shove them? If this joint set-up between Germany and France fails then this will effect only them and not the whole of Europe. Most probably it would fail eventually for I could not see France pulling it's fair weight. If this was to happen then this tells us that there is no solution to permanent peace in Europe, by creating unions between countries and that we will just have to hope that Europe has grown out of wanting wars with anyone. Lets face it, the ECM has got itself in this mess with the Euro all because many years ago someone thought it was a good idea to tie two European countries together in some way economically. To this end several minor ECM member countries have got themselves into terrible debt and for what...in hopes that Germany and France wont make war against each other again. Who's gained the most then from this ECM pact? yup the two countries that all are trying to stop fighting each other....Germany and France.... ...I'm not too sure if this was how it was supposed to turn out with all other ECM countries paying to keep both France and Germany at permanent peace with each other. But then, these other ECM members have only got them selves to blame for this, joining the ECM knowing full well that they could never keep pace financially with it. It is a rich mans club and unfortunately for some of these ECM members, "They can no longer afford to pay the subs anymore". Their putting their fees on their credit cards and can't even afford to pay off the interest now on the debt let alone any off the capital. The Kite Fliers -------------------- Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes. |
Sirius B Send message Joined: 26 Dec 00 Posts: 24909 Credit: 3,081,182 RAC: 7 |
Yep, them & this is sure to save the EU..... France must find 12bn in savings ..well reducing the retirement age to 62 is sure gonna help. |
Sirius B Send message Joined: 26 Dec 00 Posts: 24909 Credit: 3,081,182 RAC: 7 |
Euro should be put to the sword "EU leaders arriving in Italy last week were, perhaps undeservedly, spared death by the sword. They will, however, be held to account by investors, whose dwindling patience is murdering the euro". & because they were spared the rod, they went on to knock England out of Euro 2012 - cheeky chappies! Bailouts won't work We knew that, you're preaching to the choir! Mork to Mindy - Nanu,Nanu We knew this would happen as well, any new news? Some light amongst all the doom & gloom I think that all the Euro leaders/Bankers should hold the next summit there - they just might learn something! |
Nick Send message Joined: 11 Oct 11 Posts: 4344 Credit: 3,313,107 RAC: 0 |
If they had kept with the original 6 it may well have worked. In the fruit bowl of Europe they foolishly allowed too many bad apples to be placed inside it. Healthy apples don't turn bad apples good it works the other way around. In the end all the apples will turn bad unless someone throws out the deceased ones early. The only hope for this consortium is if it does fail and on reformation one selects only the best quality fruits to sit side-by-side with one-another. A golden opportunity lost/wasted in making Europe a formidable trading block. All because it was placed in the hands of the wrong type people to organise and run it. With Europe the philosophy became "Quantity" and not "Quality" so someone high-up "Merkel" needs to change this and drive forwards for Quality. Has she the courage to save the ECM by driving the dross out with then a total reformation of whats left taking also a mighty big hammer to Brussels.....the seat of the problem. The Kite Fliers -------------------- Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes. |
Sirius B Send message Joined: 26 Dec 00 Posts: 24909 Credit: 3,081,182 RAC: 7 |
And just what do our leaders & bankers do? BoE money printing puts UK at risk BoE David Miles states UK needs more QE Osborne's 100 year bond disputed |
Nick Send message Joined: 11 Oct 11 Posts: 4344 Credit: 3,313,107 RAC: 0 |
"EU leaders arriving in Italy last week were, perhaps undeservedly, spared death by the sword. They will, however, be held to account by investors, whose dwindling patience is murdering the euro". & because they were spared the rod, they went on to knock England out of Euro 2012 - cheeky chappies! Good ol' Italy, deserved to win...they were far the better team. This is the type of thing we wont for the ECM, to be full of winners and not losers. In football, the losers get kicked out from the competition, in the ECM the losers...well need I say anymore!! other than to say their allowed to carry on playing. The Kite Fliers -------------------- Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes. |
BarryAZ Send message Joined: 1 Apr 01 Posts: 2580 Credit: 16,982,517 RAC: 0 |
I was disappointed that Greece lost. I thought there would be some sort of poetic justice in a Euro semi with Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.
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Sirius B Send message Joined: 26 Dec 00 Posts: 24909 Credit: 3,081,182 RAC: 7 |
Can we get the Pope to divorce us? [Anne Robinson voice on} You're the Weakest link - goodbye {voice mode off] Still not paying their taxes |
BarryAZ Send message Joined: 1 Apr 01 Posts: 2580 Credit: 16,982,517 RAC: 0 |
Sirius -- but who's not paying taxes -- folks not earning money, or corporations off shoring? You do realize if you crumble an economy (austeritize it), you WILL reduce tax revenues, right? This is a core problem with austerity budgets -- if the government budget represents a large enough piece of the economy (and it Europe that's especially so -- it is in the US to a lesser degree as well), cutting that budget, reduces the economy. If you reduce the size of the economy you reduce the revenues to the government. Nasty business trying to negotiate a deficit reduction when the national and international economies are contracting. |
Sirius B Send message Joined: 26 Dec 00 Posts: 24909 Credit: 3,081,182 RAC: 7 |
Yes I do know. Just hightlighting the fact the "politico's" don't know what they're doing. |
BarryAZ Send message Joined: 1 Apr 01 Posts: 2580 Credit: 16,982,517 RAC: 0 |
Ah -- OK -- now that's new data <smile>. Yes I do know. Just hightlighting the fact the "politico's" don't know what they're doing. |
Nick Send message Joined: 11 Oct 11 Posts: 4344 Credit: 3,313,107 RAC: 0 |
This is a core problem with austerity budgets -- if the government budget represents a large enough piece of the economy (and it Europe that's especially so -- it is in the US to a lesser degree as well), cutting that budget, reduces the economy. If you reduce the size of the economy you reduce the revenues to the government. Nasty business trying to negotiate a deficit reduction when the national and international economies are contracting. But, Baz; there is a limit to how much a government can afford to spend on attempting to re-float it's economy. With respect to Greece they have clearly reached this limit if well-not exceeded it. I feel strongly that, in the case of Greece, loaning billions of Euro's to support their economy is not going to do anything if much to help them. Greece is in the unfortunate position of not being able to pay these loans off. To me they have no choice but to leave the Euro now and face having to live from hand-to-mouth until this depression ends. If Greece does not take this action then every tax payer in the rest of the ECM is going to have to pay towards supporting Greece for ever and a day. Situations like this will eventually lead to the downfall of the ECM, this ECM is currently being run akin to a charity. Charities survive on benevolence but business can not, the ECM is a business and it's high time it was run so to reflect this. Anyway Baz; nothing coming from me that will have surprised you here...I'm still staunch austerity....live by the sword - die by the sword (he-he). The Kite Fliers -------------------- Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes. |
BarryAZ Send message Joined: 1 Apr 01 Posts: 2580 Credit: 16,982,517 RAC: 0 |
Nick, I agree there is a limit -- and in the case of Greece it frankly hasn't been a case of spending additional to re-float a messed up economy. The Greek economy was messed up several years ago, and increasing austerity has been forced on Greece for over two years. It is a case of timing for sure. For Greece the seeds of their meltdown were sown many years ago -- all the projects for the Olympics were going on 10 years or more ago (with a lot of the money for those projects going to German contractors and skilled labor, and a lot going into waste/corruption). So, I agree that austerity needs to be in place -- I just don't know if the *additional* austerity Germany is looking for because the first couple rounds of austerity have shrunk the economy to a degree that for some reason folks didn't anticipate. Greece also needs to figure out how to stop the lost revenue that its substantial off books economy is causing and to figure out how to get its corporations not to cook their books to reduce their piece of the pie. I suspect to the extent that austerity needs to be increased in Greece it should be going off the higher wealth portion of the population as well. It is really difficult to balance the books on the elderly and unemployed (short of having the elderly die off more quickly due to denied medical care I suppose). As to leaving the Euro -- I understand -- but that is something of a Pink Floyd solution (a short sharp blow to the head). Leaving the Euro not only means default on Euro loans (which will cause bank problems in Europe as well as the US), but also a severe national depression (and destitution) as nothing will prop up the economy for years (might be great for tourists though).
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Nick Send message Joined: 11 Oct 11 Posts: 4344 Credit: 3,313,107 RAC: 0 |
As to leaving the Euro -- I understand -- but that is something of a Pink Floyd solution (a short sharp blow to the head). Leaving the Euro not only means default on Euro loans (which will cause bank problems in Europe as well as the US), but also a severe national depression (and destitution) as nothing will prop up the economy for years (might be great for tourists though). Baz, this amounts to the ECM having to act as a charity to Greece to stop any contagion throughout the West. Feasible possibly if only Greece was in the mire, but there are others following in their shadow. The Kite Fliers -------------------- Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes. |
BarryAZ Send message Joined: 1 Apr 01 Posts: 2580 Credit: 16,982,517 RAC: 0 |
Nick, yes, I understand that. Though it may be looked at as 'self-interested' charity. 1) The ECM is going to be hit badly either way -- via default or long term (and quite sketchy loans). 2) I suspect the ECM will also get hits from defaulted long term contracts that will die with no payments for existing open balances. 3) One consequence of the weaker economies leaving the Euro is that German exports (which are a major engine of the German economy) encounter two separate problems -- first, they lose the markets (that they are still exporting to now) for their goods and second, the Deutscheuro gets revalued upward which drives German export profits down -- those factors will adversely effect German economy big time. On the plus side I suppose, there will be all that low cost labor with Greek skilled folks and semi-skilled folks being the new Turks for Germany and other countries. Consider this though -- Greece leaves the EU, Spain leaves the EU and it comes tumbling down. I just think that scenario results in long term (10 years or more) wide spread economic distress. I suspect these are calculations that are going into the efforts to avoid these currency and national economy dominoes. |
Sirius B Send message Joined: 26 Dec 00 Posts: 24909 Credit: 3,081,182 RAC: 7 |
Well it's started: - many may not see it yet, but the foundations for the road to Europe exploding has just been laid.....will it get built is the question now... Draft plans for Brussels to control Europe's finances |
BarryAZ Send message Joined: 1 Apr 01 Posts: 2580 Credit: 16,982,517 RAC: 0 |
That is your classic Brussels approach to problems -- when was the last year just about any country but Germany was compliant to the 3% 'rule' previously agreed to? That sort of change would require acceptance by each country I suspect -- chances of that happening -- about the same as the Lib-Dems being the dominant party in the UK.
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Nick Send message Joined: 11 Oct 11 Posts: 4344 Credit: 3,313,107 RAC: 0 |
That is your classic Brussels approach to problems -- when was the last year just about any country but Germany was compliant to the 3% 'rule' previously agreed to? Baz, if they agree to this financial control then austerity measure will be forced upon both Spain Italy and France. It makes you think that the boys inside Brussels know that unless austerity measures are implemented then there will not be enough money available to bail many more of them out. The Kite Fliers -------------------- Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes. |
BarryAZ Send message Joined: 1 Apr 01 Posts: 2580 Credit: 16,982,517 RAC: 0 |
What I was pointing out was the difficulty of 'they' here. While it might be possible to condition things regarding Spain, I suspect that Italy and France, or, more likely Spain, Italy and France together, just might be able to block the actions of Belgium, Luxembourg and Germany in this sort of action. Yes, as in the failure of Greece, they just might be able to hold the budgets of Spain and Italy hostage -- basically telling them that national depressions are a good thing. I just don't see those nations (and they are still nations, Brussels notwithstanding) submitting.
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