Earthquake and Tsunami hits Japan.

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Message 1087740 - Posted: 17 Mar 2011, 10:15:37 UTC
Last modified: 17 Mar 2011, 10:16:32 UTC

You cannot predict earthquakes. There was a technician at the Gran Sasso underground laboratory who had predicted a quake in Abruzzo basing upon an increase in radon gas in the rocks and he was threatened with arrest for spreading fear. Then the quake arrived but not in the exact location he had predicted. There is still disagreement about this method.
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Message 1087783 - Posted: 17 Mar 2011, 13:45:18 UTC

Well, this certainly ranks as one of the most major seismic events in recorded history.

If the info I read a few days ago was correct, the coastline of Japan was moved 8 FEET.
And the axis of the Earth was shifted by 4 inches!

That is scary to think about.

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"With cats." kittyman

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Message 1087786 - Posted: 17 Mar 2011, 14:08:36 UTC - in response to Message 1087727.  

I'm trying to learn about earthquakes so I can more readily understand what is going on in Japan. With reference to the website below listing quakes over the last 8-30 days, there seems no activity in the Honshu area until the 9th March. Then for 2 days there were regular mag 4-6 mag shocks until the mag 9 on 11th March. With hindsight could this have been seen as a warning?

8-30 day history

People are saying that often after a large quake there is a risk of a secondary shock a few days later about mag 1 less than the first quake. Since then we have had constant mag 5-6 shocks in the Honshu area. Are we still expecting a mag 8 event?

Realtime quakes

A quick look at the California map will show you lots of activity but no big follow on quake. So it isn't useful as a prediction method.

As to the aftershocks, they will continue for a decade. They seem to be so far unusually light. If the sequence is normal there should be at least one of M8 and ten of M7. Those big ones haven't happened yet, and they will. As time passes the number of them decays. The magnitude of them does not decay per say. IIRC about 50% of the energy release will happen in aftershocks.

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Message 1087787 - Posted: 17 Mar 2011, 14:16:33 UTC

If the sequence is normal there should be at least one of M8 and ten of M7. Those big ones haven't happened yet, and they will.


I really hope you are wrong ... :-(
"none so blind as those who will not see"
John Heywood 1546

Don't drink water, that stuff rusts pipes!



You are making Proof out of Logic, by just being dubious!

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Message 1087793 - Posted: 17 Mar 2011, 15:20:05 UTC - in response to Message 1087787.  

If the sequence is normal there should be at least one of M8 and ten of M7. Those big ones haven't happened yet, and they will.


I really hope you are wrong ... :-(

Me too, Those are still pretty big, Some might even say their whoppers all to themselves, I've never experienced an 8 or higher, But I've seen My share of quakes.
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Message 1087901 - Posted: 17 Mar 2011, 23:25:08 UTC - in response to Message 1087740.  

You cannot predict earthquakes. There was a technician at the Gran Sasso underground laboratory who had predicted a quake in Abruzzo basing upon an increase in radon gas in the rocks and he was threatened with arrest for spreading fear. Then the quake arrived but not in the exact location he had predicted. There is still disagreement about this method.
Tullio


After snakes tried to escape from a farm in China a few days before an earthquake happened scientists installed some web-cams to find out if the behaviour of the animals can be used as forecast system. This started in 2006, but I don't know anything about the results.
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Message 1087925 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 0:58:45 UTC - in response to Message 1087901.  

Here is a story about fish deaths that allegedly predicted the quake.

The expert here says the big one will occur on the 17 or 18th of this month in California or north west US, oops that's today or tomorrow. Better stock up on essentials.
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Message 1087927 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 1:04:57 UTC - in response to Message 1087925.  

Here is a story about fish deaths that allegedly predicted the quake.

The expert here says the big one will occur on the 17 or 18th of this month in California or north west US, oops that's today or tomorrow. Better stock up on essentials.

I'm prepared, But then I was at one time a Boy Scout. :) As to quakes, Bring It on... ;)
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Message 1087936 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 2:00:12 UTC - in response to Message 1087384.  

and the building swayed one meter to left and one to the right at my 16th floor,


I was once on the level above the revolving restaurant at the BT Tower in London at about 600 ft above street level. The structure was designed to sway at about +/- 6" at the top due to wind pressure. That day it did, and it was quite scary believe me. God knows what a real earthquake feels like.......

One time, I was part of the reason the tower was swaying. The Scottish Country Dancers had rented a ballroom on the 20th floor of a building. The dances quite often involve everyone (and even more often half or a quarter of the people) moving in the same direction and then back. Apparently we hit a resonant frequency in the building as when some of the dance were done the building was swaying about a foot at that level. The guests at the wedding reception at the other end of the same floor were getting seasick...

I have been in 2 earthquakes of magnitude more than 4. The first I had to be told about even though I was apparently right over the epicenter at the time of the quake. I was driving a jeep along a washboard dirt road, and the wheels were spending most of their time off the ground anyway. The second shook the bed for a few seconds.


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Message 1087945 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 2:42:07 UTC - in response to Message 1087936.  

and the building swayed one meter to left and one to the right at my 16th floor,


I was once on the level above the revolving restaurant at the BT Tower in London at about 600 ft above street level. The structure was designed to sway at about +/- 6" at the top due to wind pressure. That day it did, and it was quite scary believe me. God knows what a real earthquake feels like.......

One time, I was part of the reason the tower was swaying. The Scottish Country Dancers had rented a ballroom on the 20th floor of a building. The dances quite often involve everyone (and even more often half or a quarter of the people) moving in the same direction and then back. Apparently we hit a resonant frequency in the building as when some of the dance were done the building was swaying about a foot at that level. The guests at the wedding reception at the other end of the same floor were getting seasick...

I have been in 2 earthquakes of magnitude more than 4. The first I had to be told about even though I was apparently right over the epicenter at the time of the quake. I was driving a jeep along a washboard dirt road, and the wheels were spending most of their time off the ground anyway. The second shook the bed for a few seconds.


I have been in my car when a quake hit. I know that feeling very well. Almost like running the Baja 500 again. During one 6+ I was in my boat. I rush out to see what A__ had just driven a speed boat thru the marina.
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Message 1087957 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 2:57:26 UTC - in response to Message 1087787.  

If the sequence is normal there should be at least one of M8 and ten of M7. Those big ones haven't happened yet, and they will.


I really hope you are wrong ... :-(

Checking the list the M8 after shock happened PDQ after the main shock, so that one may be over with. Mostly the rest of the list is 5 & 6. That isn't releasing enough energy to call it a normal sequence.

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Message 1087962 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 3:14:53 UTC - in response to Message 1087945.  

and the building swayed one meter to left and one to the right at my 16th floor,


I was once on the level above the revolving restaurant at the BT Tower in London at about 600 ft above street level. The structure was designed to sway at about +/- 6" at the top due to wind pressure. That day it did, and it was quite scary believe me. God knows what a real earthquake feels like.......

One time, I was part of the reason the tower was swaying. The Scottish Country Dancers had rented a ballroom on the 20th floor of a building. The dances quite often involve everyone (and even more often half or a quarter of the people) moving in the same direction and then back. Apparently we hit a resonant frequency in the building as when some of the dance were done the building was swaying about a foot at that level. The guests at the wedding reception at the other end of the same floor were getting seasick...

I have been in 2 earthquakes of magnitude more than 4. The first I had to be told about even though I was apparently right over the epicenter at the time of the quake. I was driving a jeep along a washboard dirt road, and the wheels were spending most of their time off the ground anyway. The second shook the bed for a few seconds.


I have been in my car when a quake hit. I know that feeling very well. Almost like running the Baja 500 again. During one 6+ I was in my boat. I rush out to see what A__ had just driven a speed boat thru the marina.

I've been through too many to count. Been everywhere. In the car once in a parking lot. Wondered who started bouncing the car. Then I had to get out and divert the shopping cart that was knocked into motion coming down the hill right at the car. Been in bed for a bunch. That isn't the kind of rocking the cradle you want. Been sitting at a desk for some. Been standing for some, those are harder to feel right away.

First I felt was the Sylmar San Fernendo quake. That one broke a pipe. Lots and lots of aftershocks. Then I think one in Palm Springs area. Of course Northridge. Had friends living there so I brought supplies that their local stores were sold out of. Got to see a collapsed bridge on that trip. Whittier shook me good but it was almost straight up and down. Felt the Sierra Madre quake very strong, but was almost on top of it. That dumped my breakfast all over and the power went out. Of course the Landers and Big Bear quakes. Another from out Palm Springs way. The Hector Mine quake. The recent Mexicali quake. Oh and as I was watching the World Series, I pretty quickly figured out what it was and it wasn't much after a chandelier started to swing. I didn't feel it, but my house did. I'm sure a bunch too small for anyone to remember.

Vic, never say bring it on about a quake. Nature can dish out several thousand times more than you can prepare for.



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Message 1087965 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 3:18:45 UTC - in response to Message 1087962.  

and the building swayed one meter to left and one to the right at my 16th floor,


I was once on the level above the revolving restaurant at the BT Tower in London at about 600 ft above street level. The structure was designed to sway at about +/- 6" at the top due to wind pressure. That day it did, and it was quite scary believe me. God knows what a real earthquake feels like.......

One time, I was part of the reason the tower was swaying. The Scottish Country Dancers had rented a ballroom on the 20th floor of a building. The dances quite often involve everyone (and even more often half or a quarter of the people) moving in the same direction and then back. Apparently we hit a resonant frequency in the building as when some of the dance were done the building was swaying about a foot at that level. The guests at the wedding reception at the other end of the same floor were getting seasick...

I have been in 2 earthquakes of magnitude more than 4. The first I had to be told about even though I was apparently right over the epicenter at the time of the quake. I was driving a jeep along a washboard dirt road, and the wheels were spending most of their time off the ground anyway. The second shook the bed for a few seconds.


I have been in my car when a quake hit. I know that feeling very well. Almost like running the Baja 500 again. During one 6+ I was in my boat. I rush out to see what A__ had just driven a speed boat thru the marina.

I've been through too many to count. Been everywhere. In the car once in a parking lot. Wondered who started bouncing the car. Then I had to get out and divert the shopping cart that was knocked into motion coming down the hill right at the car. Been in bed for a bunch. That isn't the kind of rocking the cradle you want. Been sitting at a desk for some. Been standing for some, those are harder to feel right away.

First I felt was the Sylmar San Fernendo quake. That one broke a pipe. Lots and lots of aftershocks. Then I think one in Palm Springs area. Of course Northridge. Had friends living there so I brought supplies that their local stores were sold out of. Got to see a collapsed bridge on that trip. Whittier shook me good but it was almost straight up and down. Felt the Sierra Madre quake very strong, but was almost on top of it. That dumped my breakfast all over and the power went out. Of course the Landers and Big Bear quakes. Another from out Palm Springs way. The Hector Mine quake. The recent Mexicali quake. Oh and as I was watching the World Series, I pretty quickly figured out what it was and it wasn't much after a chandelier started to swing. I didn't feel it, but my house did. I'm sure a bunch too small for anyone to remember.

Vic, never say bring it on about a quake. Nature can dish out several thousand times more than you can prepare for.



I'm not worried as the Earth has no ears and I've lived through My share of quakes too, As except for about 1 year of My life, I've lived in Southern California for all of It.
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Message 1088013 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 8:11:50 UTC

People are saying that often after a large quake there is a risk of a secondary shock a few days later about mag 1 less than the first quake. Since then we have had constant mag 5-6 shocks in the Honshu area. Are we still expecting a mag 8 event?


It's certainly possible, and even likely.

In the recent NZ quake series the original 7.1 was followed by a 6.1 five Months later. The original quake killed no one, the "aftershock" which was technically only 1/10 the power was however much shallower and closer to the city and killed over 200 and damaged 1/2 the cities buildings. So a 6 quake centred 5km away can be more damaging locally than a 9 that's 200km away.

Unless it generates a huge Tsunami of course, which was the main problem in Japan. :-(

Ian

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Message 1088022 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 9:30:09 UTC

I understand the basics of continental drift, plate tectonics,and sub-duction, which is the main cause of quakes. But before 9th March there was hardly any activity in the Honshu area, but we have seen over a week now of mag 5-6 shocks. How long will this continue before it dies down, or is it permanent now?

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You are making Proof out of Logic, by just being dubious!

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Message 1088026 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 9:55:36 UTC - in response to Message 1088022.  

I understand the basics of continental drift, plate tectonics,and sub-duction, which is the main cause of quakes. But before 9th March there was hardly any activity in the Honshu area, but we have seen over a week now of mag 5-6 shocks. How long will this continue before it dies down, or is it permanent now?


Maybe 5-10 years I heard, Japan is blessed or rather cursed with contending with 3 plates, Philippines, Eurasian and the Pacific, As to the North American plate It's to the North somewhere I think.

I found this here explains some of what's going on in and under Japan. The words "powder keg" comes to mind.


Japan endures 20 percent of the
world's powerful earthquakes as
the country lies at the crossing of
four tectonic plates - the Eurasian,
North American, Philippine and
Pacific plates.

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Message 1088186 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 20:44:27 UTC
Last modified: 18 Mar 2011, 20:46:36 UTC

One week since the fatal earthquake.....
It has been tagged as the second worst in history, only behind Chernobyl (URSS/Soviet Union) in 1986: back then, nearly 800.000 people named liquidators were directly involved in repairing and securing the reactor, many of them died soon after first contact with the radiation. Today there are something between 20 and 150 volunteers trying to fix the problem. I have seen in the newspapers the name Kamikaze, the japan version of the russian liquidators.
P.S. I do not know what the meaning of the japanese text is in the picture shown. It seems to be some sort of calligraphy/handwriting.
The flower is a symbol of the country.



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Message 1088247 - Posted: 18 Mar 2011, 22:43:54 UTC

Radiation has been detected in California. Not at a health risk level, but it's here.
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Message 1088278 - Posted: 19 Mar 2011, 0:04:23 UTC - in response to Message 1088247.  
Last modified: 19 Mar 2011, 0:05:33 UTC

Radiation has been detected in California. Not at a health risk level, but it's here.

Yeah in Sacramento CA so far as the News knows, Heck It's not nearly as bad as If We were nearby, Which I'm glad 5500 miles of ocean is between US and the damaged reactors.

About 6500 dead and almost 3 times that who are missing, One guy was driving and had a video camera running when His car got hit by the Tsunami, Thankfully He was rescued and is safe, His car He said was carried inland with the monster wave.
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Message 1088294 - Posted: 19 Mar 2011, 1:38:06 UTC

This is just in on CNN.com:

Japan national police: 7,197 people are confirmed dead and 10,905 have been reported missing after last week's disaster.

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