Message boards :
Politics :
Interest falling away
Message board moderation
Author | Message |
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PhonAcq Send message Joined: 14 Apr 01 Posts: 1656 Credit: 30,658,217 RAC: 1 |
The number of active users is currently falling at a 1.5%/month rate. This is despite a reasonably stable berkeley lab (at least the computers aren't failing much). So why the decline? Is it really competition with other projects or is it the total lack of feedback on the work we are doing (more than the cobblestone nonsense). Or is it something else? Boring message boards? No in-fighting? I don't like the argument that we have faster computers so we don't need more active users. That is a zero-sum defeatist perspective. |
Brian Silvers Send message Joined: 11 Jun 99 Posts: 1681 Credit: 492,052 RAC: 0 |
"Summer" has traditionally shown a decline, but that time is not here yet for the Northern Hemisphere. If I were to guess, it is likely a combination of people doing work for other projects and the rising costs of energy. |
Alinator Send message Joined: 19 Apr 05 Posts: 4178 Credit: 4,647,982 RAC: 0 |
Well, historically we have seen a falloff in participation as spring approaches in the Northern Hemisphere. I don't remember it as having been this noticeable this early, so maybe increasing energy costs are having some impact too. I'm sure most people can do without crunching numbers far longer than they can do without housing, food, and fuel. Then the matter of there being no instant gratification with an all encompassing answer or constant handholding with feedback on the science progress probably plays a part in today's shallow minded, can't see past the next quarterly report, need an answer now society. Alinator |
hiamps Send message Joined: 23 May 99 Posts: 4292 Credit: 72,971,319 RAC: 0 |
It could be as simple as all the Validate problems of late...Noticed a few from my start date have changed projects in the last month. A lot of people just want credit and feel slighted if there is a problem. I just stick it out, but my RAC is down 1000 from last month. Official Abuser of Boinc Buttons... And no good credit hound! |
Alinator Send message Joined: 19 Apr 05 Posts: 4178 Credit: 4,647,982 RAC: 0 |
It could be as simple as all the Validate problems of late...Noticed a few from my start date have changed projects in the last month. A lot of people just want credit and feel slighted if there is a problem. I just stick it out, but my RAC is down 1000 from last month. Agreed, some probably just move around, but the trend for BOINC overall is down as well. Alinator |
ML1 Send message Joined: 25 Nov 01 Posts: 20283 Credit: 7,508,002 RAC: 20 |
Well, historically we have seen a falloff in participation as spring approaches in the Northern Hemisphere. Global Warming bringing on an ever earlier spring?... Cheers, Martin See new freedom: Mageia Linux Take a look for yourself: Linux Format The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3) |
Alinator Send message Joined: 19 Apr 05 Posts: 4178 Credit: 4,647,982 RAC: 0 |
Well, historically we have seen a falloff in participation as spring approaches in the Northern Hemisphere. LOL... I was thinking the same thing to.... More people out in the yard sooner! :-) Alinator |
perryjay Send message Joined: 20 Aug 02 Posts: 3377 Credit: 20,676,751 RAC: 0 |
Is that really the number of users or is it number of hosts? Could it be people getting the newer dual cores and quad cores and shutting down their old and slows? PROUD MEMBER OF Team Starfire World BOINC |
Alinator Send message Joined: 19 Apr 05 Posts: 4178 Credit: 4,647,982 RAC: 0 |
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[KWSN]John Galt 007 Send message Joined: 9 Nov 99 Posts: 2444 Credit: 25,086,197 RAC: 0 |
BOINC Users Overview Just a thought...could this go back to the large # of pendings that are fianlly cleared out? (hot topic last October) Clk2HlpSetiCty:::PayIt4ward |
Alinator Send message Joined: 19 Apr 05 Posts: 4178 Credit: 4,647,982 RAC: 0 |
BOINC Users Overview Hmmm... I don't think pendings have any significant effect. You'd have to go a whole 30 days with nothing reported as granted in the daily xmls to drop off either the host or users lists. Conversely, it might cause a small fraction of departed SAH hosts and user to reappear briefly due the very generous deadlines in some cases, but I really wonder if that could effect the trend line very much or for any extended period. Alinator |
KWSN Ekky Ekky Ekky Send message Joined: 25 May 99 Posts: 944 Credit: 52,956,491 RAC: 67 |
I know that my son has stopped using any BOINC apps since last back end. He says he is trying to save the planet and his own electricity bill. Farewell, then, Bicycle Repair Man. My suspicion is that there is a fairly large number of other users too who are no longer leaving their computers running all the time and so just don't bother to crunch any more. On the other hand, I do detect, from purely anecdotal evidence, that the various Berkeley problems have had a considerable adverse effect, especially on newer alien hunters. They try it for a while, have a few problems, pack it in with large numbers of jobs pending, thus causing their wingmen problems and so on in an ever tightening circle. I have never been one of the heaviest crunchers around but when even someone such as myself gets over 2k of pending results it is quite surprising. Others are either downloading far too many tasks and working through them incredibly slowly or have abandoned BOINC for whatever reason. There should be some sort of limit on the number of tasks than can be brought on board, especially in the case of new members. Perhaps the shorter deadlines will clean this up in the next two or three weeks but I rather fear that the Seti project, in particular, needs a good long stable period and some new media publicity. BOINC Users Overview |
Logan Send message Joined: 26 Jan 07 Posts: 743 Credit: 918,353 RAC: 0 |
If a new user, when attach to SETI, the servers downloaded the tasks before the app and other project files (obviously making errors), and the project files dowloads are deferred over and over, he abandoned. This last days, the dowload problems were constant. Alquien que sepa español y me explique For example. That does not work, nothing else start, discourages so much. Best regards. Logan. BOINC FAQ Service (Ahora, también disponible en Español/Now available in Spanish) |
Alinator Send message Joined: 19 Apr 05 Posts: 4178 Credit: 4,647,982 RAC: 0 |
I know that my son has stopped using any BOINC apps since last back end. He says he is trying to save the planet and his own electricity bill. Farewell, then, Bicycle Repair Man. My suspicion is that there is a fairly large number of other users too who are no longer leaving their computers running all the time and so just don't bother to crunch any more. I can't say that I disagree with anything here in principle, except that the main reason for the long deadlines is so you don't have to run a host for even a major portion of the day if you don't want to and still participate. If they made the deadline say one or two days, you're going to start getting a lot of folks reporting that SAH is turning them away as "Won't finish in time". Alinator |
David Send message Joined: 19 May 99 Posts: 411 Credit: 1,426,457 RAC: 0 |
Perhaps the shorter deadlines will clean this up in the next two or three weeks but I rather fear that the Seti project, in particular, needs a good long stable period and some new media publicity. I was suprised that a number of friends have said "Oh S@H - is that STILL running?". I wonder if its because the data is being crunched, results stored, but nothing else is happening with it at the moment. If they used the results to pinpoint interesting sections of sky that are worthy of a second look, publicise any findings, and generally get the media back to providing free publicity then it might change. As electricity costs rise I too will probably drop one of the crunchers, but at the moment its not a big deal. I upgraded to Quads to cut down the amount of power that they actually used - the quads use 10 to 20% less power than the PC's they replaced, even running flat out, so thats my bit for the environment at the moment :) |
ChrisD Send message Joined: 25 Sep 99 Posts: 158 Credit: 2,496,342 RAC: 0 |
BOINC Combined: The decline is 4,000 out of 319,400, or a little more than 1 percent. I won't call that significant. Looking at SETI@HOME the granted credits are constant over the 60 day period, apart from the daily fluctuations. To me it seems that the work done for SETI is preety much constant. ChrisD |
Brian Silvers Send message Joined: 11 Jun 99 Posts: 1681 Credit: 492,052 RAC: 0 |
BOINC Combined: This makes at least 3 years in a row that I remember the seeming surprise that there is a drop in active participants during this time of year. |
Alinator Send message Joined: 19 Apr 05 Posts: 4178 Credit: 4,647,982 RAC: 0 |
BOINC Combined: Yep, just seems a little earlier this year. If history holds the down trend will steepen up a more before it flattens out turns up again. I never bothered recording it, but I'm wondering if we ever get back to the peak number of active participants from the preceding year. None of the sites I looked at keeps that particular stat. In fact tracking the total number of users is pretty much useless without having the total active along with it, IMHO. ;-) Although I guess you can glean something from looking at the active to inactive ratio. IIRC that was about 33% around a year and 1/2 ago. Alinator |
1mp0£173 Send message Joined: 3 Apr 99 Posts: 8423 Credit: 356,897 RAC: 0 |
BOINC Combined: If we assume that the total number of all-time users is cumulative (that user id's are not reissued) and that most users hang around for about the same amount of time, then the ratio of active to total users should get worse over time. |
PhonAcq Send message Joined: 14 Apr 01 Posts: 1656 Credit: 30,658,217 RAC: 1 |
If this fall off is an annual event, like geese flying north, then what brings people back, we should be asking. Surely not food. If the motivation to return to SAH isn't there and understood, then the project is at risk. At 1-2% per month loss of participants, the more agressive next-phase of seti is going to fall flat, I fear. The reason I looked for this graph is that I saw on the SAH homepage, boring as it is, that stale notice via a Berkeley news release soliciting more users. I guess it didn't work! I am in the camp that the project is not attractive if people can't see progress. Progress could be a quarterly report posted somewhere, which would be keen! Or, it could be as simple as a chart of our progress against a concrete goal. Or, any one of a number of other ideas that show that we are not dead. The global warming argument is ridiculous; but the escalating cost of electricity may not be. Yet, when it comes down to it, seti only costs me a couple of pints each month in beer-equivalent currency. 'Rational'/analytical people are not likely to turn off seti over a couple of beers. |
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