Putin doesn't like anti-trump tweets, shuts internet.

Beware of the bear.
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a49791/russian-dnc-emails-hacked/

But Trump is telling his supporters the election if rigged against him. So what point is there in them bothering to vote, if the mythical 'fraudsters' are going to wipe their votes out.

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Is Texas safe for Donald. New poll: Trump lead shrinks in Texas, within margin of error

DALLAS - After perhaps the most damaging week of his campaign, Donald Trump’s lead in Texas has slipped to four percentage points – within the margin of error – according to a new poll released Thursday night.

The survey, commissioned by WFAA-TV and Texas TEGNA television stations, shows Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 47 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error is four percent.

edit] University of Houston
Trump - 41%, Clinton - 38%, Margin of Error 3%

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But Trump is telling his supporters the election if rigged against him. So what point is there in them bothering to vote, if the mythical 'fraudsters' are going to wipe their votes out.

Well...

Guess we will just have to wait for another SCOTUS 'Decision'.

Unfortunately, the Politicians on SCOTUS will probably be divided 4x4.

It will be very interesting.

Talking of SCOTUS could the Senate do an 'about face' and vote to put in Obama's candidate. Rather than wait for Hillary's very Liberal Candidate, it also looks like the Senate is going the Democratic way. Rubio is panicking.

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Explain your answer, that is just about a standard liability notice for all pollsters.

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/surveymonkey-15-state-poll/2103/ read 1st para.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_01dca97a9c05411984c50df92d62cf50.pdf read last para page 2.

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If the issue here is polls, I find them increasingly less and less accurate each passing year.
My logical conclusion is NOT from polls about polls or even the terrible devisive ways they present questions.
It is my own simple fact-of-life observation that fewer and fewer people even have landline phone service except those that require them for satalite upgrades or landline internet service. Secondly, if a house has a landline phone it is handled by an answering machine.
So who are the people who still have landlines, answer each call in person and eagerly respond to pollsters devisive and leading questions?
I don't really think polls deserve much attention. They are either done by Media with an agenda to promote or polls are paid for by organizations promoting an agenda, talking to a very narrow segment of the population.

I think it is entirely possible that neither Trump nor Clinton get 270 electoral votes and despite poll results of landline answering poll responders, there is a possibility that the rest of the previously unheard from population will express their opinion on election day.

Explain your answer, that is just about a standard liability notice for all pollsters.

Well...

You have constantly attacked my Polls. When all I am doing is showing different numbers from the Polls you Initially Posted.

You did/do not understand that I am showing the problem with believing the results. Despite your ascertains that Polls are more accurate than in the recent past.

Nothing more, nothing less.

I posted the 'Standard Liability Notice'. Emphasizing that the 'Margin of Error', all speak about. Does not necessarily reflect the totality of voter's intentions.

Nothing more, nothing less.

I wasn't attacking your poll selection this time. I was merely pointing out, in the light of all the criticism I have received, with people pointing out.

"It's all about Electoral College votes votes NOT the popular vote."

Therefore you have to watch State polls not the National polls.

On the "Liability Notice" you didn't state why you posted it. You were not wrong in posting it, you just didn't explain why.

One thing I did fail to say about the "Margin of Error" is that it applies to both numbers so it should be read as;

Margin of Error 3%
Trump - 41% ± 3%, Clinton - 38% ± 3%.

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If the issue here is polls, I find them increasingly less and less accurate each passing year.
My logical conclusion is NOT from polls about polls or even the terrible devisive ways they present questions.
It is my own simple fact-of-life observation that fewer and fewer people even have landline phone service except those that require them for satalite upgrades or landline internet service. Secondly, if a house has a landline phone it is handled by an answering machine.
So who are the people who still have landlines, answer each call in person and eagerly respond to pollsters devisive and leading questions?
I don't really think polls deserve much attention. They are either done by Media with an agenda to promote or polls are paid for by organizations promoting an agenda, talking to a very narrow segment of the population.

I think it is entirely possible that neither Trump nor Clinton get 270 electoral votes and despite poll results of landline answering poll responders, there is a possibility that the rest of the previously unheard from population will express their opinion on election day.

Your observation about the accuracy is correct, but as you say "person to person" is the best way. The other methods lead to inaccuracy.
Therefore find those telephone polls, if possible and avoid the internet and automated polls. Like Clyde's favourite the LA Times one.

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Of course, not my "favorite".

Why is the one you quote most.

My perception, may not be totally correct.

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Of course, not my "favorite".

Why is the one you quote most.

My perception, may not be totally correct.

For a different reason you repeatedly Post other Polls.

Not for the 'accuracy' of the LA Times Poll. Or as you apparently believe, regarding the accuracy Polls you Post.

But...

It was just a Discussion 'Counter Point' to your belief in the Polls you Posted. I judge all the same.

Nothing more, nothing less.

I don't actually trust any of them 90%, I try where possible to see if the different polls show the same trends and if they have a bias.

One reason I posted two polls for Texas, they differed slightly but essentially say the same thing. The Latino's, women and higher educated are leaving Donald.
Which could mean trouble for the GOP in future years as the Latino population increases, maybe even faster if Hillary fast tracks naturalization, more youngsters go to university and the older white population dies out.

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Generally agree, but the time frame is probably less than one generation before the majority population in Texas, and possibly other states, will be Latino.

Or will the youngsters move to other States?

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Trump is trying. Almost getting there. But cannot choose his words carefully enough not to offend SOMEBODY with anything he says. That is inevitable.

Hillary is an evil, law breaking criminal. It is only a matter of time before her money, power, and influence run out on her.
She stands for everything that is wrong with this country and wishes to perpetuate it. Hillary For Prison bumper stickers should be on every vehicle.

Trump....Make America Great Again.
Yes. Let's DO that. And the only way to start that is by tossing the established bums out on their necks.

Voting for Trump will take that first step, and whether you like him or not, he is a necessary evil at this time or we are forever doomed to the path we are on now.

I only wish that Trump could calm down a bit, dial down the rhetoric, and make a speech like the one in this old fictional political debate scene......
Why America is NOT the greatest country in the world anymore.

But CAN be again.

Meow.

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"Freedom is just Chaos, with better lighting." Alan Dean Foster

Interestingly, regarding Citizenship.

But don't you need them. Who pays for the increasingly bigger retired population, baby boomer generation just entering, healthcare etc.

And if Donald wins, fills the 25 million jobs he is going to generate. There are not 25 million jobless, and who want jobs, in the US.

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Interestingly, regarding Citizenship.

And if Donald wins, fills the 25 million jobs he is going to generate. There are not 25 million jobless, and who want jobs, in the US.

I think this point has been debated before.
There are far more jobless US citizens than are reported, because they have fallen outside of those currently looking.
If the opportunities reopened, more of them would attempt their job search again.

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"Freedom is just Chaos, with better lighting." Alan Dean Foster

Interestingly, regarding Citizenship.

And if Donald wins, fills the 25 million jobs he is going to generate. There are not 25 million jobless, and who want jobs, in the US.

I think this point has been debated before.
There are far more jobless US citizens than are reported, because they have fallen outside of those currently looking.
If the opportunities reopened, more of them would attempt their job search again.

It has and nobody disputed the figure of ~12 million, that I came up with. Which would leave quite a few vacancies being unfulfilled, which usually leads to rapid inflation.

If you look at the definition of full employment it is not 100% employment. The ~8 Million defined as unemployed and looking for work is pretty close to full employment. BUT there are some people only employed part time and looking for full time.

edit] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_employment#United_States

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As is usual lately, I am debating facts with one outside of the US.
I am not gonna make the usual comment that you should keep your nose out of it, because I DO know that this can eventually affect the entire world.

I just have to wonder why there seems to be more discussion about OUR election by those residually affected by it and not so much by those here at home.

Note that this was an off the cuff comment. I did not actually tally posts in this thread. Just the drift of them.

I stand by my earlier comments.

Trump wins, or we ALL lose. And a great opportunity in the history of the United States shall have been lost..........forever.

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"Freedom is just Chaos, with better lighting." Alan Dean Foster

Trump wins, or we ALL lose.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/10/donald-trump-america-161020055149368.html

Donald Trump is America

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Interestingly, regarding Citizenship.

And if Donald wins, fills the 25 million jobs he is going to generate. There are not 25 million jobless, and who want jobs, in the US.

I think this point has been debated before.
There are far more jobless US citizens than are reported, because they have fallen outside of those currently looking.
If the opportunities reopened, more of them would attempt their job search again.

It has and nobody disputed the figure of ~12 million, that I came up with. Which would leave quite a few vacancies being unfulfilled, which usually leads to rapid inflation.

If you look at the definition of full employment it is not 100% employment. The ~8 Million defined as unemployed and looking for work is pretty close to full employment. BUT there are some people only employed part time and looking for full time.

edit] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_employment#United_States

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

The U-3 (Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)) in Sept. 2016 is 5.0%. 5.0% is considered 'full employment' (one person out of 20 being unemployed due to 'churn' in the job market).

The U-6, however, (Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force) for Sept. 2016 is 9.7%.

Some definitions:

Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months.

Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work.

Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

Also, note that the number employed part-time for economic reasons is 2.7% (U-6 minus U-5).

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Ok, the US's Total noninstitutional population in Sept. 2016 was 254,091,000.
The size of the civilian work force was 159,907,000.
The size of those *IN* the civilian work force but unemployed (U-3) was 7,939,000.


http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm

For Sept 2016, of those NOT in the labor force:
Persons who currently want a job = 5,753,000.
Marginally attatched to the work force = 1,844,000.
Persons who want a job minus those marginally attatched = 3,909,000.

So, total number of civilian work force plus those marginally attatched = 161,751,000.

U-6 = 15,689,847 people.

Add to that the number of people not in the workforce, and not marginally attatched to the workforce, but who WANT a job and you get 19,598,847 people.

While 19.6 million people won't be able to fill the claimed 25 million jobs by themselves, the existence of the 5.4 million unfilled jobs might just convince some of those not in the workforce to enter it, and don't forget about that ~ 1.8 million part-time current employees that wanted full-time work... they will likely need replacements. So, we are down to just 3.6 million jobs unfilled minus those not currently in the workforce that don't want work changing their minds. For the remainder... There is always immigration, if they are not filled by children aging into the workforce.

That bloody U-3 figure the Govt. always has published in the media is bloody misleading. And OFFICIAL US Govt. figures dispute your figure of 12 million.

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https://youtu.be/iY57ErBkFFE

#Texit

Don't blame me, I voted for Johnson(L) in 2016.

Truth is dangerous... especially when it challenges those in power.

I maybe outside the US, but I can understand some of the feelings about the establishment and about exported jobs.

On the establishment we are going through the same problem here in the UK. earlier today I posted msg 1825938, about our previous Chancellor of the Exchequer, (Minister of Finance), a definite member of the establishment who admitted he hadn't got a clue about the state of the country outside London before our referendum on leaving the EU.

On Export of Jobs, I have lived through that, and the establishment didn't help then either. My Dad's home town and where we settled after he retired from Military life, is in East Lancashire. East Lancashire was the Center of the World for the Industrialization of the cotton industry. (big supporter of the South during the American Civil War)
After WW2 the cotton industry was, like the railways, in a bad shape, old machinery and no money. It struggled on, but countries like Pakistan, Egypt and Brazil started taking the jobs through cheap labour. And when the mills in E. Lancs closed they came along, bought all the old looms and spinning frames at scrap prices, and with their government money refurbished and electrified them. There was even great joy when Howard and Bullough got a multi-Million contract to supply Brazil, just before I left school. Causing even bigger problems for our part of the world. The cotton industry was effectively closed by the 1970's.
On jobs, I would argue, the area still hasn't recovered, the population is the same as it was in 1911.

On leaving school I read the runes and the 'signs on the subway wall' and got out with an apprenticeship in the Army in Electronic communications and studied, what were magic things at the time, Texas Instruments TTL logic, almost immediately after they were introduced in 1964.

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