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Donald Trump for President?
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Gordon Lowe Send message Joined: 5 Nov 00 Posts: 12094 Credit: 6,317,865 RAC: 0 |
Really Gordon? :-) Yes, I think what England does has great influence over the states, but I don't think this situation will cause Trump to win the election. The mind is a weird and mysterious place |
janneseti Send message Joined: 14 Oct 09 Posts: 14106 Credit: 655,366 RAC: 0 |
Really Gordon? :-) Are you sure? He is using Brexit as a "good" example. Donald J. Trump â€@realDonaldTrump 22 timför 22 timmar sedan |
Gordon Lowe Send message Joined: 5 Nov 00 Posts: 12094 Credit: 6,317,865 RAC: 0 |
Really Gordon? :-) Nah, I don't think this is the tipping point for Trump. The mind is a weird and mysterious place |
W-K 666 Send message Joined: 18 May 99 Posts: 19045 Credit: 40,757,560 RAC: 67 |
So you don't think that some Democrats that don't like Hillary, or think she is compromised over her insecure emails, won't at best abstain or worse vote for the other side. And that some people who have strong(ish) views on immigration or jobs disappearing to foreign parts might think "I'll vote for this idiot Trump, because he's not going to win is he." and then wake up the next morning thinking "Oh no, what have I done" when Trump wins. |
Gordon Lowe Send message Joined: 5 Nov 00 Posts: 12094 Credit: 6,317,865 RAC: 0 |
So you don't think that some Democrats that don't like Hillary, or think she is compromised over her insecure emails, won't at best abstain or worse vote for the other side. I don't think there's enough of them to make it happen. (But I could be wrong) The mind is a weird and mysterious place |
W-K 666 Send message Joined: 18 May 99 Posts: 19045 Credit: 40,757,560 RAC: 67 |
So you don't think that some Democrats that don't like Hillary, or think she is compromised over her insecure emails, won't at best abstain or worse vote for the other side. And that is what a lot of the UK voters thought. |
W-K 666 Send message Joined: 18 May 99 Posts: 19045 Credit: 40,757,560 RAC: 67 |
The New York Times editorial a few days ago: But what if the NYT is correct. Does 35% of the population know and understand what they are voting for? Does part of the population vote for party 'A' or party 'B' because their family have always voted that way, or because they belong to a certain demographic group. Isn't that the same as a lot of religious people, who state they belong to 'Religion P' or 'Religion Q' because their parents belong to that religion and took their kids to their religious house or worship every week to be indoctrinated. |
Gary Charpentier Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 30636 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 |
So you don't think that some Democrats that don't like Hillary, or think she is compromised over her insecure emails, won't at best abstain or worse vote for the other side. Or the UK vote will have made them wake up from their fantasy and they won't vote Drumpf after all. |
janneseti Send message Joined: 14 Oct 09 Posts: 14106 Credit: 655,366 RAC: 0 |
The New York Times editorial a few days ago: And from the Brexit referendum. More than two thirds (69%) of leavers, thought the decision “might make us a bit better or worse off as a country, but there probably isn’t much in it either wayâ€. |
W-K 666 Send message Joined: 18 May 99 Posts: 19045 Credit: 40,757,560 RAC: 67 |
So you don't think that some Democrats that don't like Hillary, or think she is compromised over her insecure emails, won't at best abstain or worse vote for the other side. What makes you think that those people actually take any notice of whats on the news outside their own favourite |
Gary Charpentier Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 30636 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 |
The New York Times editorial a few days ago: Drumpf has not yet been nominated by the party. http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/24/politics/rnc-delegate-lawsuit-donald-trump/ Washington (CNN)A delegate to the Republican National Convention has filed a lawsuit against Virginia officials as part of a long-shot attempt to avoid voting for Donald Trump this summer in Cleveland. |
shizaru Send message Joined: 14 Jun 04 Posts: 1130 Credit: 1,967,904 RAC: 0 |
Guys, I know everybody's still in shock but it might be time to stop swallowing information and maybe chew a little bit... There are a number of things wrong with that 7/10 number for LEAVE but I'll go with the one I find a bit amusing: 7 out of 10 didn't take seriously a referendum on the future of their country, on the future of their own lives, on the future of their children's lives... yet if a newspaper asks them their opinion... THAT they take seriously? And answer truthfully? Unfortunately we'll never know for sure but I think it's safe to assume that had the markets gotten their betting right, then the Pound wouldn't have devalued as much as it did. There wouldn't be a sense of "OMG, what the hell just happened!?". At which point I'm guessing the 7/10 would be more like 1/10 at best. But anyway, that's not really my point. My point is: No matter what that number really is... and for the sake of argument let's assume it really IS 7/10, well then... it is only LOGICAL to assume that 7/10 on the REMAIN camp didn't take it too seriously either. Oooops. |
W-K 666 Send message Joined: 18 May 99 Posts: 19045 Credit: 40,757,560 RAC: 67 |
Is it logical to assume that 7/10 on the REMAIN camp didn't take it too seriously either. I don't think so when you look at the demographics, the AB social group and those under 40, more likely to have a degree, were the ones most likely to vote to stay. |
shizaru Send message Joined: 14 Jun 04 Posts: 1130 Credit: 1,967,904 RAC: 0 |
Sorry, Trump & Brexit a bit intertwined so not sure where to post what... cross posting here (quoting Gary): Bookies take bets. Polls don't. And people follow polls and change their votes based on polls. One of the evils of modern elections. True, true. No arguments here. Just remember that goes for both "sides" to one degree or another. (Though I'd like to highlight my point was markets caused the Sterling crash - voters get the blame? Finding the media narrative a bit surreal on this point) Anyway, on to Trump & Hillary: I'm still not seeing the media's (and by extension the peoples) confidence that "there's no way Trump can win this" being based on anything but... faith! I see very little stats & facts floating around. What makes me uneasy is that the Blue Team is playing this in an "All or nothing" kind of way. Now personally I consider myself conservative, just not in the "status-quo" sense but in the "risk-averse" sense. And for the life of me I can't figure out why the Dems would bet the Farm by backing Hillary. She's been polling dangerously close to Trump, whereas Bernie... not so much. Call me a pu**y but if I was a flag-waving die-hard Democrat that wanted to back Hillary, I'd bite the bullet and back Sanders instead just to improve the odds of a party win. Oh and just like everybody in the UK knows that Europe is doing an awful job... everybody in US knows Hillary has an AWFUL track record. Which kinda makes you lose a lot of motivation. I mean for most people it's "I'm busting my a** at MY job, I'm not gonna vote for a president that's gonna be crap at theirs!". A lot of you guys are calling these people rednecks but you gotta remember it's statistically impossible for the US to be made up of 40%... cowboys! :P And here's the Brexit caveat: When both parties are telling you how to vote, and the media are telling you how to vote, and every institution (who, like Chandler on Friends, no-one is exactly sure what the true nature of their job is exactly) is telling you how to vote (IMF, BoE, etc.), and Juncker, and Merkel, and Beckham & Cumberbatch, and God and his angels... Well you're not gonna tell the annoying pollster that called you up that you are voting for LEAVE are you? You just wanna get rid of him/her. So OF COURSE the LEAVE vote is gonna do a lot better than the 42% it was getting. Just like Trumps numbers will be "a lot" higher than whatever the polls say (if he makes it to election day obviously). So if it DOES come down to Hillary vs. Trump (remember it ain't set in stone yet) then it'll be the "pissed-off masses" on one side and the "Trump is a crazy racist" on the other... and I'm not touching that bet with a 10-foot pole. |
Gary Charpentier Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 30636 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 |
(if he makes it to election day obviously). (if she makes it to election day obviously). I'm wondering if the election will be Romney/Sanders. There is a lot of political machine that is getting very terrified of the choice that has come out. Politics is Cuban Cigars in the secret back room. Drumpf didn't know the game so he didn't have people in the party before he started so he can be shut out by the machine. (He could also insult the judge from the witness stand and not be available) Hillary owned the party before the start, so she was an automatic choice, but might not be available to run. If Gary Johnson can get a few bucks to get some advertising "Can't stand Clinton, Can't stand Drumpf, Vote Gary Johnson" on TV he might just suck off enough votes to throw the election to the house. |
betreger Send message Joined: 29 Jun 99 Posts: 11361 Credit: 29,581,041 RAC: 66 |
"I'm busting my a** at MY job, I'm not gonna vote for a president that's gonna be crap at theirs!". A lot of you guys are calling these people rednecks but you gotta remember it's statistically impossible for the US to be made up of 40%... cowboys! Alex I call BS, this country has more cowboys than cows. |
betreger Send message Joined: 29 Jun 99 Posts: 11361 Credit: 29,581,041 RAC: 66 |
If Gary Johnson can get a few bucks to get some advertising "Can't stand Clinton, Can't stand Drumpf, Vote Gary Johnson" on TV he might just suck off enough votes to throw the election to the house. Gary you know this country is not comfortable with 3rd parties. |
Gary Charpentier Send message Joined: 25 Dec 00 Posts: 30636 Credit: 53,134,872 RAC: 32 |
If Gary Johnson can get a few bucks to get some advertising "Can't stand Clinton, Can't stand Drumpf, Vote Gary Johnson" on TV he might just suck off enough votes to throw the election to the house. George Wallace. <ed>You were thinking win. I'm thinking enough electoral votes to assure that neither of the others can win outright. This contest is going to be that close, that if only a couple or three states go 3rd party, the election will be in the house of representatives. |
W-K 666 Send message Joined: 18 May 99 Posts: 19045 Credit: 40,757,560 RAC: 67 |
If Gary Johnson can get a few bucks to get some advertising "Can't stand Clinton, Can't stand Drumpf, Vote Gary Johnson" on TV he might just suck off enough votes to throw the election to the house. Will this be before or after the 3rd January? |
KWSN - MajorKong Send message Joined: 5 Jan 00 Posts: 2892 Credit: 1,499,890 RAC: 0 |
"I'm busting my a** at MY job, I'm not gonna vote for a president that's gonna be crap at theirs!". A lot of you guys are calling these people rednecks but you gotta remember it's statistically impossible for the US to be made up of 40%... cowboys! No, betreger, I call BS on your statement. Per the US BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics): Cowboys are included in the following group. '45-2093 Farmworkers, Farm, Ranch, and Aquacultural Animals' Support Activities for Animal Production which lists 12,920 people in that job as of May 2015. The May 2016 figures will be out soon, hopefully. However this figure includes people employed taking care of virtually all livestock in the USA... So, the number of cowboys is a lot less than this. http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes452093.htm As of Jan. 1, 2016, the USDA lists a cattle herd size in the USA of 92.0 million head. http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/Catt/Catt-01-29-2016.pdf Oh, and Gary is correct in his statement that the Libertarian Candidate (Gary Johnson) stands a chance of throwing the 2016 Presidential Election into the US House of Representatives. As you say, the US political system is quite hostile to '3rd parties'. But this election... A choice between Trump and his hate, and Clinton and her corruption... Neither one of them SHOULD EVER be President. What are we going to do? Remember, in the Electoral College, there is 1 ballot, and unless one candidate gets a Majority (270) of the votes for President, it goes to the House for a decision. If Johnson (or someone else) wins any Electors, It might not be possible for ANYONE to get 270. Of course, It would probably be in the best interests of the Nation for both of the major political parties to throw the candidate chosen in their primary/caucus season under the bus at their convention, and nominate someone else. Then, maybe we could have a general election about the issues facing the nation, instead of about the relative 'evil quotient' of the current two presumed nominees. https://youtu.be/iY57ErBkFFE #Texit Don't blame me, I voted for Johnson(L) in 2016. Truth is dangerous... especially when it challenges those in power. |
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