Donald Trump for President?

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Message 1798692 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 20:36:48 UTC - in response to Message 1798691.  

Really Gordon? :-)


Yes, I think what England does has great influence over the states, but I don't think this situation will cause Trump to win the election.
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Message 1798693 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 20:43:39 UTC - in response to Message 1798692.  

Really Gordon? :-)

Yes, I think what England does has great influence over the states, but I don't think this situation will cause Trump to win the election.

Are you sure?
He is using Brexit as a "good" example.
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 22 timför 22 timmar sedan
"What has happened in the UK in the last 12 hours is exactly what will happen in November..vote TRUMP 2016

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 23 timför 23 timmar sedan
Many people are equating BREXIT, and what is going on in Great Britain, with what is happening in the U.S. People want their country back!
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Message 1798695 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 20:46:13 UTC - in response to Message 1798693.  

Really Gordon? :-)

Yes, I think what England does has great influence over the states, but I don't think this situation will cause Trump to win the election.

Are you sure?
He is using Brexit as a "good" example.
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 22 timför 22 timmar sedan
"What has happened in the UK in the last 12 hours is exactly what will happen in November..vote TRUMP 2016

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 23 timför 23 timmar sedan
Many people are equating BREXIT, and what is going on in Great Britain, with what is happening in the U.S. People want their country back!


Nah, I don't think this is the tipping point for Trump.
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Message 1798699 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 21:22:33 UTC - in response to Message 1798695.  

So you don't think that some Democrats that don't like Hillary, or think she is compromised over her insecure emails, won't at best abstain or worse vote for the other side.

And that some people who have strong(ish) views on immigration or jobs disappearing to foreign parts might think "I'll vote for this idiot Trump, because he's not going to win is he." and then wake up the next morning thinking "Oh no, what have I done" when Trump wins.
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Message 1798703 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 21:33:44 UTC - in response to Message 1798699.  

So you don't think that some Democrats that don't like Hillary, or think she is compromised over her insecure emails, won't at best abstain or worse vote for the other side.

And that some people who have strong(ish) views on immigration or jobs disappearing to foreign parts might think "I'll vote for this idiot Trump, because he's not going to win is he." and then wake up the next morning thinking "Oh no, what have I done" when Trump wins.



I don't think there's enough of them to make it happen. (But I could be wrong)
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Message 1798712 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 21:57:40 UTC - in response to Message 1798703.  

So you don't think that some Democrats that don't like Hillary, or think she is compromised over her insecure emails, won't at best abstain or worse vote for the other side.

And that some people who have strong(ish) views on immigration or jobs disappearing to foreign parts might think "I'll vote for this idiot Trump, because he's not going to win is he." and then wake up the next morning thinking "Oh no, what have I done" when Trump wins.



I don't think there's enough of them to make it happen. (But I could be wrong)

And that is what a lot of the UK voters thought.
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Message 1798716 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 22:09:54 UTC - in response to Message 1798702.  

The New York Times editorial a few days ago:

What is known, what the debate over the [Brexit] referendum has demonstrated with great clarity, is that there is in Britain a populist strain of the sort that has brought nationalist governments to Hungary and Poland, helped right-wing parties make strong showings in France and some other European countries — and, in America, done much to promote the cause of Donald Trump. In the United States and Britain, a relatively normal electoral process became seized with populist nationalism and increasingly immune to normal political discourse.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/20/opinion/nationalism-and-the-brexit-vote.html

My take? The NY Times believes The People are inferior to The Ruling Class, and should not be trusted with making decisions.

How deranged, demeaning and evil that belief is.

The Ruling Class, which The New York Times is just a mouthpiece. Is yelling, screaming and stomping their feet. In fear that their Control may be slipping away.

Hopefully, their fears will be realized.

But what if the NYT is correct.
Does 35% of the population know and understand what they are voting for?
Does part of the population vote for party 'A' or party 'B' because their family have always voted that way, or because they belong to a certain demographic group. Isn't that the same as a lot of religious people, who state they belong to 'Religion P' or 'Religion Q' because their parents belong to that religion and took their kids to their religious house or worship every week to be indoctrinated.
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Message 1798718 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 22:16:02 UTC - in response to Message 1798712.  

So you don't think that some Democrats that don't like Hillary, or think she is compromised over her insecure emails, won't at best abstain or worse vote for the other side.

And that some people who have strong(ish) views on immigration or jobs disappearing to foreign parts might think "I'll vote for this idiot Trump, because he's not going to win is he." and then wake up the next morning thinking "Oh no, what have I done" when Trump wins.



I don't think there's enough of them to make it happen. (But I could be wrong)

And that is what a lot of the UK voters thought.

Or the UK vote will have made them wake up from their fantasy and they won't vote Drumpf after all.
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Message 1798720 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 22:18:05 UTC - in response to Message 1798716.  

The New York Times editorial a few days ago:
What is known, what the debate over the [Brexit] referendum has demonstrated with great clarity, is that there is in Britain a populist strain of the sort that has brought nationalist governments to Hungary and Poland, helped right-wing parties make strong showings in France and some other European countries — and, in America, done much to promote the cause of Donald Trump. In the United States and Britain, a relatively normal electoral process became seized with populist nationalism and increasingly immune to normal political discourse.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/20/opinion/nationalism-and-the-brexit-vote.html
My take? The NY Times believes The People are inferior to The Ruling Class, and should not be trusted with making decisions.
How deranged, demeaning and evil that belief is.
The Ruling Class, which The New York Times is just a mouthpiece. Is yelling, screaming and stomping their feet. In fear that their Control may be slipping away.
Hopefully, their fears will be realized.

But what if the NYT is correct.
Does 35% of the population know and understand what they are voting for?
Does part of the population vote for party 'A' or party 'B' because their family have always voted that way, or because they belong to a certain demographic group. Isn't that the same as a lot of religious people, who state they belong to 'Religion P' or 'Religion Q' because their parents belong to that religion and took their kids to their religious house or worship every week to be indoctrinated.

And from the Brexit referendum.
More than two thirds (69%) of leavers, thought the decision “might make us a bit better or worse off as a country, but there probably isn’t much in it either way”.
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Message 1798721 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 22:22:41 UTC - in response to Message 1798718.  

So you don't think that some Democrats that don't like Hillary, or think she is compromised over her insecure emails, won't at best abstain or worse vote for the other side.

And that some people who have strong(ish) views on immigration or jobs disappearing to foreign parts might think "I'll vote for this idiot Trump, because he's not going to win is he." and then wake up the next morning thinking "Oh no, what have I done" when Trump wins.



I don't think there's enough of them to make it happen. (But I could be wrong)

And that is what a lot of the UK voters thought.

Or the UK vote will have made them wake up from their fantasy and they won't vote Drumpf after all.

What makes you think that those people actually take any notice of whats on the news outside their own favourite country music radio station area.
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Message 1798722 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 22:22:53 UTC - in response to Message 1798716.  

The New York Times editorial a few days ago:

What is known, what the debate over the [Brexit] referendum has demonstrated with great clarity, is that there is in Britain a populist strain of the sort that has brought nationalist governments to Hungary and Poland, helped right-wing parties make strong showings in France and some other European countries — and, in America, done much to promote the cause of Donald Trump. In the United States and Britain, a relatively normal electoral process became seized with populist nationalism and increasingly immune to normal political discourse.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/20/opinion/nationalism-and-the-brexit-vote.html

My take? The NY Times believes The People are inferior to The Ruling Class, and should not be trusted with making decisions.

How deranged, demeaning and evil that belief is.

The Ruling Class, which The New York Times is just a mouthpiece. Is yelling, screaming and stomping their feet. In fear that their Control may be slipping away.

Hopefully, their fears will be realized.

But what if the NYT is correct.
Does 35% of the population know and understand what they are voting for?
Does part of the population vote for party 'A' or party 'B' because their family have always voted that way, or because they belong to a certain demographic group. Isn't that the same as a lot of religious people, who state they belong to 'Religion P' or 'Religion Q' because their parents belong to that religion and took their kids to their religious house or worship every week to be indoctrinated.

Drumpf has not yet been nominated by the party.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/24/politics/rnc-delegate-lawsuit-donald-trump/
Washington (CNN)A delegate to the Republican National Convention has filed a lawsuit against Virginia officials as part of a long-shot attempt to avoid voting for Donald Trump this summer in Cleveland.

Carroll Correll is suing Virginia election officials in federal court, arguing that his right to free speech is infringed upon by legal requirements that he cast his ballot for Trump. His suit comes as efforts to unbind delegates and subvert Trump at the convention intensify, though remain very unlikely to succeed.

Correll is bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot at the convention. Trump won Virginia's primary on Super Tuesday.

"Correll believes that Donald Trump is unfit to serve as President of the United States and that voting for Donald Trump would therefore violate Correll's conscience," the complaint reads. "Accordingly, Correll will not vote for Donald Trump on the first ballot, or any other ballot, at the national convention. He will cast his vote on the first ballot, and on any additional ballots, for a candidate whom he believes is fit to serve as President."

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Message 1798731 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 22:52:28 UTC

Guys, I know everybody's still in shock but it might be time to stop swallowing information and maybe chew a little bit...

There are a number of things wrong with that 7/10 number for LEAVE but I'll go with the one I find a bit amusing:

7 out of 10 didn't take seriously a referendum on the future of their country, on the future of their own lives, on the future of their children's lives... yet if a newspaper asks them their opinion... THAT they take seriously? And answer truthfully?

Unfortunately we'll never know for sure but I think it's safe to assume that had the markets gotten their betting right, then the Pound wouldn't have devalued as much as it did.

There wouldn't be a sense of "OMG, what the hell just happened!?". At which point I'm guessing the 7/10 would be more like 1/10 at best.

But anyway, that's not really my point. My point is:

No matter what that number really is... and for the sake of argument let's assume it really IS 7/10, well then... it is only LOGICAL to assume that 7/10 on the REMAIN camp didn't take it too seriously either.

Oooops.
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Message 1798737 - Posted: 25 Jun 2016, 23:11:43 UTC - in response to Message 1798731.  

Is it logical to assume that 7/10 on the REMAIN camp didn't take it too seriously either.

I don't think so when you look at the demographics, the AB social group and those under 40, more likely to have a degree, were the ones most likely to vote to stay.
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Message 1798748 - Posted: 26 Jun 2016, 0:35:34 UTC

Sorry, Trump & Brexit a bit intertwined so not sure where to post what... cross posting here (quoting Gary):

Bookies take bets. Polls don't. And people follow polls and change their votes based on polls. One of the evils of modern elections.


True, true. No arguments here. Just remember that goes for both "sides" to one degree or another.
(Though I'd like to highlight my point was markets caused the Sterling crash - voters get the blame? Finding the media narrative a bit surreal on this point)

Anyway, on to Trump & Hillary:

I'm still not seeing the media's (and by extension the peoples) confidence that "there's no way Trump can win this" being based on anything but... faith!

I see very little stats & facts floating around.

What makes me uneasy is that the Blue Team is playing this in an "All or nothing" kind of way. Now personally I consider myself conservative, just not in the "status-quo" sense but in the "risk-averse" sense. And for the life of me I can't figure out why the Dems would bet the Farm by backing Hillary. She's been polling dangerously close to Trump, whereas Bernie... not so much. Call me a pu**y but if I was a flag-waving die-hard Democrat that wanted to back Hillary, I'd bite the bullet and back Sanders instead just to improve the odds of a party win.

Oh and just like everybody in the UK knows that Europe is doing an awful job... everybody in US knows Hillary has an AWFUL track record. Which kinda makes you lose a lot of motivation. I mean for most people it's "I'm busting my a** at MY job, I'm not gonna vote for a president that's gonna be crap at theirs!". A lot of you guys are calling these people rednecks but you gotta remember it's statistically impossible for the US to be made up of 40%... cowboys! :P

And here's the Brexit caveat:
When both parties are telling you how to vote, and the media are telling you how to vote, and every institution (who, like Chandler on Friends, no-one is exactly sure what the true nature of their job is exactly) is telling you how to vote (IMF, BoE, etc.), and Juncker, and Merkel, and Beckham & Cumberbatch, and God and his angels...

Well you're not gonna tell the annoying pollster that called you up that you are voting for LEAVE are you? You just wanna get rid of him/her.

So OF COURSE the LEAVE vote is gonna do a lot better than the 42% it was getting.
Just like Trumps numbers will be "a lot" higher than whatever the polls say (if he makes it to election day obviously).

So if it DOES come down to Hillary vs. Trump (remember it ain't set in stone yet) then it'll be the "pissed-off masses" on one side and the "Trump is a crazy racist" on the other... and I'm not touching that bet with a 10-foot pole.
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Message 1798750 - Posted: 26 Jun 2016, 1:15:14 UTC - in response to Message 1798748.  

(if he makes it to election day obviously).

(if she makes it to election day obviously).
I'm wondering if the election will be Romney/Sanders. There is a lot of political machine that is getting very terrified of the choice that has come out. Politics is Cuban Cigars in the secret back room.

Drumpf didn't know the game so he didn't have people in the party before he started so he can be shut out by the machine. (He could also insult the judge from the witness stand and not be available)

Hillary owned the party before the start, so she was an automatic choice, but might not be available to run.

If Gary Johnson can get a few bucks to get some advertising "Can't stand Clinton, Can't stand Drumpf, Vote Gary Johnson" on TV he might just suck off enough votes to throw the election to the house.
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Message 1798776 - Posted: 26 Jun 2016, 4:34:22 UTC - in response to Message 1798748.  

"I'm busting my a** at MY job, I'm not gonna vote for a president that's gonna be crap at theirs!". A lot of you guys are calling these people rednecks but you gotta remember it's statistically impossible for the US to be made up of 40%... cowboys!

Alex I call BS, this country has more cowboys than cows.
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Message 1798777 - Posted: 26 Jun 2016, 4:36:30 UTC - in response to Message 1798750.  

If Gary Johnson can get a few bucks to get some advertising "Can't stand Clinton, Can't stand Drumpf, Vote Gary Johnson" on TV he might just suck off enough votes to throw the election to the house.

Gary you know this country is not comfortable with 3rd parties.
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Message 1798783 - Posted: 26 Jun 2016, 5:22:47 UTC - in response to Message 1798777.  
Last modified: 26 Jun 2016, 5:29:06 UTC

If Gary Johnson can get a few bucks to get some advertising "Can't stand Clinton, Can't stand Drumpf, Vote Gary Johnson" on TV he might just suck off enough votes to throw the election to the house.

Gary you know this country is not comfortable with 3rd parties.

George Wallace.

<ed>You were thinking win. I'm thinking enough electoral votes to assure that neither of the others can win outright. This contest is going to be that close, that if only a couple or three states go 3rd party, the election will be in the house of representatives.
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Message 1798786 - Posted: 26 Jun 2016, 6:22:05 UTC - in response to Message 1798783.  

If Gary Johnson can get a few bucks to get some advertising "Can't stand Clinton, Can't stand Drumpf, Vote Gary Johnson" on TV he might just suck off enough votes to throw the election to the house.

Gary you know this country is not comfortable with 3rd parties.

George Wallace.

<ed>You were thinking win. I'm thinking enough electoral votes to assure that neither of the others can win outright. This contest is going to be that close, that if only a couple or three states go 3rd party, the election will be in the house of representatives.

Will this be before or after the 3rd January?
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Message 1798789 - Posted: 26 Jun 2016, 6:33:36 UTC - in response to Message 1798776.  
Last modified: 26 Jun 2016, 6:34:25 UTC

"I'm busting my a** at MY job, I'm not gonna vote for a president that's gonna be crap at theirs!". A lot of you guys are calling these people rednecks but you gotta remember it's statistically impossible for the US to be made up of 40%... cowboys!

Alex I call BS, this country has more cowboys than cows.


No, betreger, I call BS on your statement.

Per the US BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics):

Cowboys are included in the following group.

'45-2093 Farmworkers, Farm, Ranch, and Aquacultural Animals'

Support Activities for Animal Production

which lists 12,920 people in that job as of May 2015. The May 2016 figures will be out soon, hopefully. However this figure includes people employed taking care of virtually all livestock in the USA...

So, the number of cowboys is a lot less than this.

http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes452093.htm

As of Jan. 1, 2016, the USDA lists a cattle herd size in the USA of 92.0 million head.

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/Catt/Catt-01-29-2016.pdf

Oh, and Gary is correct in his statement that the Libertarian Candidate (Gary Johnson) stands a chance of throwing the 2016 Presidential Election into the US House of Representatives. As you say, the US political system is quite hostile to '3rd parties'. But this election... A choice between Trump and his hate, and Clinton and her corruption... Neither one of them SHOULD EVER be President. What are we going to do?

Remember, in the Electoral College, there is 1 ballot, and unless one candidate gets a Majority (270) of the votes for President, it goes to the House for a decision.

If Johnson (or someone else) wins any Electors, It might not be possible for ANYONE to get 270.

Of course, It would probably be in the best interests of the Nation for both of the major political parties to throw the candidate chosen in their primary/caucus season under the bus at their convention, and nominate someone else.

Then, maybe we could have a general election about the issues facing the nation, instead of about the relative 'evil quotient' of the current two presumed nominees.
https://youtu.be/iY57ErBkFFE

#Texit

Don't blame me, I voted for Johnson(L) in 2016.

Truth is dangerous... especially when it challenges those in power.
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