Is Anyone Out There?

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KLiK
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Message 1695016 - Posted: 24 Jun 2015, 6:52:34 UTC - in response to Message 1694830.  
Last modified: 24 Jun 2015, 6:53:02 UTC

The way I understood the events in the Rama stories was that a previous disaster involving an asteroid strike had finally stirred the governments of earth to establish an early warning network including telescopes and space vehicles to prevent a repeat. One of the telescopes detected Rama and when it was determined that Rama wasn't a natural object one of the space ships was sent to intercept it. During the course of that mission it was determined that Rama was some sort of a space ark and that Rama wasn't sent to look for us and was only using the sun to alter it's trajectory to get to it's destination. They initially weren't aware of our presence and it was only after astronauts had boarded Rama they took an interest in us and came back centuries later.

To me that is a very likely scenario.

if it wasn't of Chelyabinsk, a WISE would have never been awaken again...to become a NEOWISE, making a curve of discovery a steep one! ;)

@Gordon Lowe, it's a GREAT book! ;)


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Profile Julie
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Message 1695517 - Posted: 25 Jun 2015, 13:19:54 UTC
Last modified: 25 Jun 2015, 13:20:32 UTC

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Message 1695520 - Posted: 25 Jun 2015, 13:28:01 UTC - in response to Message 1695517.  
Last modified: 25 Jun 2015, 13:49:17 UTC

Yes Math can prove that aliens exist.

However you must first put forth premises that are accepted and true.

These might be:

1. Life will arise spontaneously on any planet that mimics all of the Earth's conditions for harboring life.

2. Life, once started and given enough time will evolve to intelligence similar to that on Earth.

3. There is at least one such planet in each Galaxy.

4. There are on the order of 100 Billion Galaxies.

5. Civilizations persist for long enough so that at least one of them will be co-temporaneous with us.

Then by modus ponens you will have the tautology that they indeed exist.

This is not to say that they exist nearby, have visited us or that we will ever know where and when they are. We must get to work on proving the first three of these hypotheses true.

The statements which are made by those who make their living and fame in SETI that we will find them in the next 10-20 years have no basis in fact or probability in my opinion.

Since the whole venture abounds in speculation, wishes, religion and curiosity--we should continue our efforts--perhaps in a more co-ordinated, sober and efficient way.
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Message 1695526 - Posted: 25 Jun 2015, 13:45:34 UTC - in response to Message 1695520.  
Last modified: 25 Jun 2015, 13:46:51 UTC

Hate to reply to my own posts, But:

I heard the fact that 160 people work in the SETI institute (Not SETI@home).

Many, if not most, of these are "astro-biologists" or i presume exo-biologists as i call them.

If so, I would like them to put forth the many conditions for Intelligent life to form so that a debate can start on the necessity and probability of each of these.

In time we can all talk about a Nuevo-Drake equation which more accurately predicts the occurrence and density of intelligent civilizations.
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Message 1695533 - Posted: 25 Jun 2015, 14:00:53 UTC
Last modified: 25 Jun 2015, 14:05:57 UTC

Was it that discussion again?

Perhaps I was somewhat busy at doing a couple of things.

But I happened to listen in to a YouTube clip yesterday which reminded me about a small thing.

Anyway, it was Frank Drake who was speaking in the remainder of this clip and not Seth Shoestak.

But by listening in to his voice and what he is saying, it should be clear that Mr. Drake is a radio astronomer, not a astronomer perhaps watching the sky by means of visual means, or trying to understand the universe in the same way, meaning by means of mathematics and physics, as an astrophysicist is supposed to be doing.

If you do not mind, some of this may very well be apparent here as well, whether or not you like it or not.

Radio astronomy is among other things the mapping of the sky in wavelengths which are invisible to the human eye.

Because radio waves are having a different wavelength than say gamma rays or X-rays, the details possibly may possibly differ from what is available may visual means.

In order to visually explore stars and galaxies, spectra are being taken of distant and background stars. Their intrisic, or at least surface temperature and maybe part of their total radiation may be measured by means of photoelectric and photoelectronic analysis.

Here on earth radio waves may also be used for transmission. In such instances they become microwaves instead.

Such waves are creating a high temperature by means of directed radiation and is being used for the cooking of food in microwave ovens.

So, is a radio astronomer perhaps supposed to be blindfolded by other things rather being present by means of a visual appearance?

In the same way, does a visual astronomer always have the knowledge which only a radio astronomer, by means of being a physicist is having?

The same goes for our current discussion about black holes and UFO's.

Apparently these two subjects may have become somewhat mixed up or confused with each other.

Really, these two subjects should belong in each separate category.

Doing such a thing or having such a discussion when both things are being discussed at the same time is not supposed to help in any way.

Therefore, if it ever was my fault, please have me excused.
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Message 1695552 - Posted: 25 Jun 2015, 15:10:43 UTC - in response to Message 1695526.  

Hate to reply to my own posts, But:

I heard the fact that 160 people work in the SETI institute (Not SETI@home).

Many, if not most, of these are "astro-biologists" or i presume exo-biologists as i call them.

If so, I would like them to put forth the many conditions for Intelligent life to form so that a debate can start on the necessity and probability of each of these.

In time we can all talk about a Nuevo-Drake equation which more accurately predicts the occurrence and density of intelligent civilizations.


Agreed!
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Message 1695622 - Posted: 25 Jun 2015, 17:51:05 UTC - in response to Message 1695517.  

Can Math prove that Aliens exist?


Math can explain almost anything if you can define the variables. This is where the Drake equation fails. To many unknowns. It adds up to garbage in = garbage out. This doesn't mean the drake equation is worthless it just isn't very useful until we can better define some of the parameters.

Also does it matter if we detect some form of intelligence in another galaxy? If conditions prove that galaxies create a viable intelligent life form on average then the distance is so vast between them any type of communication would be impossible never mind any type of contact. I think the vast distances even between stars keeps all the animals in the cages they were born in.

I still believe we need to explore and search. Finding some form of life on another planet may help us fill in some blanks and better define the variables. I hope so.

Bob
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Message 1695664 - Posted: 25 Jun 2015, 20:06:59 UTC - in response to Message 1695662.  

Yes but we better listen carefully. If we say Huh? we may have just lost 5 million years in the conversation.
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Message 1695706 - Posted: 25 Jun 2015, 22:10:07 UTC - in response to Message 1695664.  

Be careful what you wish for.

Watched the movie
Battleship
. Team of SETI like scientists send out a signal, signal received, was not what they expected.
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Message 1695712 - Posted: 25 Jun 2015, 22:21:42 UTC - in response to Message 1695662.  

We may not ever meet but we may be able to exchange information.


I think exchange may be a stretch, especially since we are talking about galaxies and not solar systems. Andromeda is the closest major galaxy to us and at 2.5 million LY away there is going to some lag between replies. At that distance it may be possible to detect some sign of a civilization but intercepting a signal with information is probably impossible. Many other galaxies are hundreds of times further away compounding this problem ever more.

If we have any hope of exchanging information it would have to be a solar system in our neighborhood and even then you would shorten reply times from millions of years to possibly only decades. Asking them to repeat a message may mean your descendants will get the reply.

As always the journey can be more important then the destination. We need to keep looking.

Bob
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Message 1695776 - Posted: 26 Jun 2015, 2:24:41 UTC

In my estimation we won't be downloading the encyclopedia galactica any time soon.
Bob DeWoody

My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events.
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Message 1695810 - Posted: 26 Jun 2015, 5:47:00 UTC - in response to Message 1695662.  
Last modified: 26 Jun 2015, 5:47:42 UTC

Also does it matter if we detect some form of intelligence in another galaxy?

Ah, now another intelligent question!

If they gave us the answer to curing all cancers we would be very grateful. If they told us how to exceed the speed of light we would be over the moon (literally in 1/2 a second!). We may not ever meet but we may be able to exchange information.


Oh, some of us do already Chris :) That's what we have the aether (or quintessence) for.
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Message 1695890 - Posted: 26 Jun 2015, 8:12:43 UTC - in response to Message 1695776.  

In my estimation we won't be downloading the encyclopedia galactica any time soon.

I've read that Enciclopedia Treccani will be put online soon. Its physics editor was Enrico Fermi.
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Message 1695898 - Posted: 26 Jun 2015, 8:38:18 UTC
Last modified: 26 Jun 2015, 8:46:06 UTC

Not to pick on Julie but I have to agree with you Chris. As a science based culture we need to prove things with hard evidence. Testimony does not hit that mark. That does not mean the person does not believe what they profess but as humans we make terrible witnesses. We see and believe in things even when they are not there.

This famous video demonstrates this point very well. You may have seen it before so don't spoil it for others.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJG698U2Mvo

and then this one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY

We have selective vision and hearing. Hard proof is needed otherwise it is just faith. For many people faith is all that is needed.

Bob
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Message 1695910 - Posted: 26 Jun 2015, 9:46:31 UTC - in response to Message 1695898.  
Last modified: 26 Jun 2015, 10:13:25 UTC

Not to pick on Julie but I have to agree with you Chris. As a science based culture we need to prove things with hard evidence. Testimony does not hit that mark. That does not mean the person does not believe what they profess but as humans we make terrible witnesses. We see and believe in things even when they are not there.

This famous video demonstrates this point very well. You may have seen it before so don't spoil it for others.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJG698U2Mvo

and then this one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGQmdoK_ZfY

We have selective vision and hearing. Hard proof is needed otherwise it is just faith. For many people faith is all that is needed.

Bob


I have my own (non-refutable, unfortunately) proof. I certainly don't want to force my trustworthiness upon anyone as I mentioned before here but I had contact, that's a fact. I know things my petty human mind even has problems with to grasp. I saw the 'UFO' phenomenon 3 times. Each time communicating directly with me through telepathy at the time being.
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Message 1696639 - Posted: 29 Jun 2015, 3:14:17 UTC
Last modified: 29 Jun 2015, 3:15:23 UTC

Was that my words?

Apparently no so.

Science is supposed to be for the good and not anything else.

Perhaps I was somewhat premature in my thinking and apparently forgot the important fact about the Drake equation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation

Please have a look at this equation.

I am not that good when it comes to mathematics myself, but it took only 20 30 minutes or so at getting to the meaning of it.

This equation is about the possibility of life in the universe. It is based on probability theory, which might imply statistics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory
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Message 1696666 - Posted: 29 Jun 2015, 5:37:55 UTC

The problem with the Drake Equation is we have very little information on what to use for the variables. It ends up being garbage in garbage out. I think the equation is very good but most of the variables are like asking how many angels can fit on the head of a pin. We just don't have anywhere near enough information.

throw in the numbers you like and the probability can go anywhere from none to millions of intelligent Civs per galaxy. We are getting more information every year and maybe in the next few decades we can make use of this equation but not at this time.

Just my 2 cents
Bob
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Message 1696683 - Posted: 29 Jun 2015, 7:27:46 UTC - in response to Message 1696639.  

Science is supposed to be for the good and not anything else.

Science is only supposed to be science!

it's people & their doing, who r good or bad!
;)


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Message 1696691 - Posted: 29 Jun 2015, 8:11:21 UTC - in response to Message 1696689.  

This depends on the oil used to lubricate them.
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Message 1696694 - Posted: 29 Jun 2015, 8:20:45 UTC - in response to Message 1696689.  

Now how many ET's could pass through the eye of a needle is a valid question :-))


Here we go again Chris. You best define the size of the needle and the size of the aliens...lol. Although to get back on topic. most of the parameters on the Drake Equation amount to a SWAG (Systematic Wild Ass Guess) and that makes poor science. it is good for critical thinking but does not pass any scientific hurdle in my opinion.

The answer is 42 tho from what I understand.

Bob
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