Modifying the Drake Equation - Refining Estimates for Finding Intelligent Life

Message boards : SETI@home Science : Modifying the Drake Equation - Refining Estimates for Finding Intelligent Life
Message board moderation

To post messages, you must log in.

AuthorMessage
Ralph Broom

Send message
Joined: 6 Apr 99
Posts: 2
Credit: 15,596,311
RAC: 16,920
United States
Message 1609304 - Posted: 5 Dec 2014, 2:06:22 UTC
Last modified: 5 Dec 2014, 2:06:57 UTC

Amri Wandel had the following article accepted for publication in the International Journal of Astrobiology.

http://arxiv.org/abs/1412.1302

He uses Kepler data to add terms to the Drake equation, and evaluates what that would do to the likelihood of SETI finding intelligent life.
ID: 1609304 · Report as offensive
Profile William Rothamel
Avatar

Send message
Joined: 25 Oct 06
Posts: 3335
Credit: 1,322,163
RAC: 0
United States
Message 1609327 - Posted: 5 Dec 2014, 3:45:32 UTC - in response to Message 1609304.  
Last modified: 5 Dec 2014, 3:46:16 UTC

In order to say that the density of TRULY Earth-Like Planets is this or that we would first have to find the first one.: and the many others. This first one would have to display all of a dozen or more parameters and measurements within fairly narrow ranges.

If the first one is 30,000 light years from earth then we may never find this parameter of density of habitable planets. I have ranted before on these boards that exo-biologists should come up with the list of requirements for intelligent life to form--I have listed a dozen or so that I felt were essential to life forming and evolving. These can be combined with the Drake notions of persistence, longevity and co-temporaneousness to estimate how many such planets might be in the Milky way.

Since I have taken the liberty to be as uncertain as anyone else on the prevalence and necessity of each of these parameters I have mused and run some numbers and come up with a number that would fit on one hand's worth of fingers.

The current search with Kepler may put some real numbers on the commonality of say: Magnetic fields, ozone layer, water, pressure, temperature, Moon, outer Gas giants, and so on.

Here is a copy of a post that I made in 2010:

Well if there are 10,000 as suggested how far would they be scattered in a galaxzy shaped like ours that is maybe 100,000 parsecs across.

Does this average distance preclude picking up spurious radiation or even a high-powered focused beam?

The uncertainty and the adequateness of the variables subject to estimation will remain a topic for debate. We may gradually answer some of the more relevant ones in the not too distant future such as:

What percentage of main sequence stars have planets in a temperate zone.
how many of these are are in a near circular orbit.
how many have water
how many stars have an outer gas giant.
how many planets have a moon to stabilize spin and provide tidal action.
how many have been around for billions of years.
how many have a magnetic shield
how many have an ozone layer
how many have dry land?

How many more conditions are necessary for intelligent like to form and how likely are these.
ID: 1609327 · Report as offensive
Profile Bob DeWoody
Avatar

Send message
Joined: 9 May 10
Posts: 2848
Credit: 1,215,556
RAC: 143
United States
Message 1609349 - Posted: 5 Dec 2014, 5:57:22 UTC

Regardless of the details we attach to the conditions of the Drake equation the number of possible planets with the capability to support life is much higher than when the equation was first put forth. I think back then the estimate of the number of stars in the Milky Way was much lower and also then the estimate of the number of stars with planetary systems was like 1 in 10,000.

Whether or not we discover that intelligent life exists elsewhere in our galaxy, statistically the odds are almost 100% positive that they are there somewhere.

And is just for the Milky Way. When you factor in all of the other known galaxies the numbers are just too overwhelming on the yes side.
Bob DeWoody

My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events.
ID: 1609349 · Report as offensive
Larry Monske

Send message
Joined: 17 Sep 05
Posts: 281
Credit: 554,328
RAC: 0
United States
Message 1612979 - Posted: 12 Dec 2014, 21:15:55 UTC - in response to Message 1609349.  

Drake equation doesnt cover atmosphere air pressure mix of gases and gravity all those make the earth what it is a lifeboat in a vast sea and another planetary system is so far away the chance of travel a million and a half years of travel. Thats does not compute.
The chances of a exact twin of the earth is impossible each planet is a personality for life. You must realize that life is an infection of the surface of a planet the narrow band of life is extreamly rare or we are the most we can find in the nearest 1000 stars. All others require several million years travel time.We should hear life rsponding to our signals over 70 plus years and nothing but static. If the drake equation is correct we should have a hundred separate species communicating in space if advanced. Another problem radio it is unique to earth we havent truely heard a alien signal. Just the wrong frequency and wrong method of transmission or simply not listening to the right frquency.
ID: 1612979 · Report as offensive
Profile Bob DeWoody
Avatar

Send message
Joined: 9 May 10
Posts: 2848
Credit: 1,215,556
RAC: 143
United States
Message 1613422 - Posted: 13 Dec 2014, 18:35:44 UTC

Another point was made on the science channel last night. At the rate our technology is progressing any alien civilization that is more than 100 years ahead of us is probably not communicating with radio as we know it making detection of a signal on our part nearly impossible.
Bob DeWoody

My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events.
ID: 1613422 · Report as offensive
Profile cliff
Avatar

Send message
Joined: 16 Dec 07
Posts: 625
Credit: 3,590,440
RAC: 0
United Kingdom
Message 1613946 - Posted: 14 Dec 2014, 19:34:12 UTC - in response to Message 1613422.  

Hi Bob,
I think another moot point is, would any such life form actually 'want' to communicate with another life form?

An extra terrestrial life form might be so dissimilar both physically and mentally that it could have absolutely no desire to communicate with anything other than its own species or another similar species..

There have been several [mainly scifi] authors that have speculated on silicon life forms, or gaseus [?sp] life forms that may be uninterested in communicating with anything at all.

For communication to take place there has to be a desire to do so.. We seem to be making a rather rash assumption that any other intelligent life form would be so similar to us, mentally at any rate that it would desire to open communications..

Regards,
Cliff,
Been there, Done that, Still no damm T shirt!
ID: 1613946 · Report as offensive
Michael Watson

Send message
Joined: 7 Feb 08
Posts: 939
Credit: 1,113,719
RAC: 1,428
Message 1614003 - Posted: 14 Dec 2014, 21:22:05 UTC
Last modified: 14 Dec 2014, 21:26:31 UTC

It seems reasonable that there would be a continuum of developmental levels in extraterrestrial civilizations. Some would presumably be younger than ourselves and even less technically and intellectually accomplished than we are. Some could be at or near our level of development. Others would be much more advanced. Those nearest us in their development would probably be the ones that find us interesting, and worth conversing with.
A slightly more technically advanced civilization, which found us interesting (as we might find the opportunity to converse directly with the ancient Greeks, say) might use straightforward radio for talking to us, even if they had something more advanced that they could use among themselves. That, after all, is what we would be able to receive and comprehend.
ID: 1614003 · Report as offensive
KLiKProject Donor
Volunteer tester

Send message
Joined: 31 Mar 14
Posts: 1290
Credit: 9,160,547
RAC: 17,937
Croatia
Message 1614602 - Posted: 16 Dec 2014, 10:10:33 UTC - in response to Message 1612979.  

Drake equation doesnt cover atmosphere air pressure mix of gases and gravity all those make the earth what it is a lifeboat in a vast sea and another planetary system is so far away the chance of travel a million and a half years of travel. Thats does not compute.
The chances of a exact twin of the earth is impossible each planet is a personality for life. You must realize that life is an infection of the surface of a planet the narrow band of life is extreamly rare or we are the most we can find in the nearest 1000 stars. All others require several million years travel time.We should hear life rsponding to our signals over 70 plus years and nothing but static. If the drake equation is correct we should have a hundred separate species communicating in space if advanced. Another problem radio it is unique to earth we havent truely heard a alien signal. Just the wrong frequency and wrong method of transmission or simply not listening to the right frquency.

Radio signals are the common thing in Universe...so yes, if they passed industrial revolution, they should have the radio! ;)

otherwise, yes...you are correct...70y away they can hear us if they have something like Arecibo or better (larger)...so that is radius of 140ly...
the thing is: the first radio transmissions have come up to them...so if they responded - we have to listen! ;)

non-profit org. Play4Life in Zagreb, Croatia, EU
ID: 1614602 · Report as offensive
KLiKProject Donor
Volunteer tester

Send message
Joined: 31 Mar 14
Posts: 1290
Credit: 9,160,547
RAC: 17,937
Croatia
Message 1615136 - Posted: 17 Dec 2014, 6:30:36 UTC - in response to Message 1613422.  

Another point was made on the science channel last night. At the rate our technology is progressing any alien civilization that is more than 100 years ahead of us is probably not communicating with radio as we know it making detection of a signal on our part nearly impossible.


Gettting back to Us...as we progress to cable TV & internet...and radio is less & less in the air...
We still send our probes around the Solar system...and mostly we use radio telecomunication to them (only few newer one use laser information exchange technology)...

So, we could conclude that aliens also use their radio communications to the probes around their solar system...and those radio transmissions are guided (narrow beamed) & sufficent for the space...
So that is mostly the only way they can detect us...and we them! ;)

non-profit org. Play4Life in Zagreb, Croatia, EU
ID: 1615136 · Report as offensive
Michael Watson

Send message
Joined: 7 Feb 08
Posts: 939
Credit: 1,113,719
RAC: 1,428
Message 1615299 - Posted: 17 Dec 2014, 14:56:30 UTC

There is also the possibility that radio waves used for purposes other than communications could be detected at interstellar distance. Space radar used to detect and study asteroids naturally comes to mind. Microwave radio beams might also be used to control weather patterns on extraterrestrial planets, by applying heat to selected locations within their atmospheres.
There might very well be other uses for radio waves, of which we can not even conceive. The human race first learned to kindle, use, and control fire hundreds of thousands of years ago. Even though we've since developed more technically advanced methods of heating and cooking, fire still finds many, and even sometimes new, uses.
ID: 1615299 · Report as offensive
Nick: ID 666
Volunteer tester

Send message
Joined: 18 May 99
Posts: 11225
Credit: 31,498,567
RAC: 3,445
United Kingdom
Message 1615323 - Posted: 17 Dec 2014, 15:53:38 UTC - in response to Message 1613422.  

Another point was made on the science channel last night. At the rate our technology is progressing any alien civilization that is more than 100 years ahead of us is probably not communicating with radio as we know it making detection of a signal on our part nearly impossible.

I'll agree with that.

Probably the only way to detect intelligent life that has reached the industrial age would be to detect pollution. Most pollutants are not naturally formed.
ID: 1615323 · Report as offensive
KLiKProject Donor
Volunteer tester

Send message
Joined: 31 Mar 14
Posts: 1290
Credit: 9,160,547
RAC: 17,937
Croatia
Message 1615655 - Posted: 18 Dec 2014, 6:50:04 UTC - in response to Message 1615323.  

Another point was made on the science channel last night. At the rate our technology is progressing any alien civilization that is more than 100 years ahead of us is probably not communicating with radio as we know it making detection of a signal on our part nearly impossible.

I'll agree with that.

Probably the only way to detect intelligent life that has reached the industrial age would be to detect pollution. Most pollutants are not naturally formed.

But on those pollutants, they didn't include the CFC's...which don't occur naturally & mean that developemnt has come to well inside industrial age... :/

non-profit org. Play4Life in Zagreb, Croatia, EU
ID: 1615655 · Report as offensive

Message boards : SETI@home Science : Modifying the Drake Equation - Refining Estimates for Finding Intelligent Life


 
©2017 University of California
 
SETI@home and Astropulse are funded by grants from the National Science Foundation, NASA, and donations from SETI@home volunteers. AstroPulse is funded in part by the NSF through grant AST-0307956.