How to end a Depression or Recession?


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Message 1348452 - Posted: 19 Mar 2013, 12:21:02 UTC

I've taken this out of the North Korea thread as it was rather off topic there.

Well, it's seems to take a world war to end a depression.

That is the general opinion ..... But .....

Depression end

From that article

After many years of confiscatory taxes, businessmen desperately needed incentives to expand. By 1945 the top marginal income tax rate was 94 percent on all income over $200,000. We also had a high excess-profits tax that had absorbed more than one-third of all corporate profits since 1943 — and another corporate tax that reached as high as 40 percent on other profits.

In 1945 and 1946 Congress repealed the excess-profits tax, cut the corporate tax to a maximum 38 percent, and cut the top income tax rate to 86 percent. In 1948 Congress sliced the top marginal rate further, to 82 percent.

Those rates were still high, but they were the first cuts since the 1920s and sent the message that businesses could keep much of what they earned. The year 1946 was not without ups and downs in employment, occasional strikes, and rising prices. But the “regime certainty” of the 1920s had largely returned, and entrepreneurs believed they could invest again and be allowed to make money.

I have no economics training or qualifications, but this seems to indicate that cutting taxes was the key to ending the depression. Now, would that work today?

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Message 1348541 - Posted: 19 Mar 2013, 19:22:08 UTC - in response to Message 1348452.
Last modified: 19 Mar 2013, 19:22:57 UTC

I've taken this out of the North Korea thread as it was rather off topic there.

Well, it's seems to take a world war to end a depression.

That is the general opinion ..... But .....

Depression end

From that article

After many years of confiscatory taxes, businessmen desperately needed incentives to expand. By 1945 the top marginal income tax rate was 94 percent on all income over $200,000. We also had a high excess-profits tax that had absorbed more than one-third of all corporate profits since 1943 — and another corporate tax that reached as high as 40 percent on other profits.

In 1945 and 1946 Congress repealed the excess-profits tax, cut the corporate tax to a maximum 38 percent, and cut the top income tax rate to 86 percent. In 1948 Congress sliced the top marginal rate further, to 82 percent.

Those rates were still high, but they were the first cuts since the 1920s and sent the message that businesses could keep much of what they earned. The year 1946 was not without ups and downs in employment, occasional strikes, and rising prices. But the “regime certainty” of the 1920s had largely returned, and entrepreneurs believed they could invest again and be allowed to make money.

I have no economics training or qualifications, but this seems to indicate that cutting taxes was the key to ending the depression. Now, would that work today?


For the UK as a whole then no the effect will not be so pronounced as it was
back in the 40's. Increasing the public's spending power unfortunately will
just suck in more imports so causing our balance of payments to deteriorate
even further. Further to this, since this "depression" is both private &
public sector debt lead then putting more money into the public's hands will just
end up being used, by the public, to pay-down debts hence will not find it's
way back in to the economy to the level most in government would wish to see.
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Message 1348594 - Posted: 19 Mar 2013, 21:48:53 UTC

Well it won't be long now.....

"Winnie's Ghost"

Set Europe Ablaze!

Except this time around, the Yanks will stay out of it & recover their own economy by supplying the weaponery & picking up the pieces of what's left at a fraction of the cost!

It would be nice if the rest of Europe then left Brussels to rebuild alone!
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Message 1348763 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 17:14:55 UTC - in response to Message 1348594.

Well it won't be long now.....

"Winnie's Ghost"

Set Europe Ablaze!

Except this time around, the Yanks will stay out of it & recover their own economy by supplying the weaponery & picking up the pieces of what's left at a fraction of the cost!

It would be nice if the rest of Europe then left Brussels to rebuild alone!


Ane I hope we do stay out of it. Europe hates are guts anyway, As does most of the planet. Im sick of the US being the world cop and spit on. You have the Euro zone now, take care of your own security.

If I had my way every overseas base would be closed. And screw foriegn aid. We give money to dictators who screw over their own poeple.

Teddy R had it right when he said Talk softly and carry a big stick.
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Message 1348765 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 17:16:52 UTC - in response to Message 1348763.

Unfortunately James, if another politician such as Teddy R came on the scene & attempted that, he would be castigated by the 'uman Rights & Civil liberties brigades!
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Message 1348772 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 17:35:40 UTC

Ane I hope we do stay out of it. Europe hates are guts anyway, As does most of the planet.

James, we in the UK have a "Special Relationship" with the USA, so it is unfair to lump us in with the rest of them. It was the USA's choice to become the world cop, you the people demanded it after 9/11 to avoid it happening again. When you are in that position, of course you will be vilified, you would expect to be.

If I had my way every overseas base would be closed

The USA as arguably the top world power, necessarily needs to keep a physical presence in various strategic places around the word. That should be self evident.

And screw foriegn aid. We give money to dictators who screw over their own poeple.

It is simple compassion that drives the richer countries to support the poorer ones, particularly those with oppressive regimes. But what you don't do is simply give money to the governments. Charity organisations such as Rotary International, and Round Table, give funds directly to the local counterpart Clubs in affected Countries. That guarantees that money honestly goes to where it is needed.

Talk softly and carry a big stick.

In the UK we call it an iron fist in a velvet glove. Something British diplomacy is famous for.





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Message 1348779 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 17:55:21 UTC - in response to Message 1348772.

In the UK we call it an iron fist in a velvet glove. Something British diplomacy is famous for.


For which will be highly ineffective should Europe blow for a 3rd time. The UK no longer have an Armed Forces to cover a conflict of that size.
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Message 1348781 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 18:11:30 UTC - in response to Message 1348772.

And screw foriegn aid. We give money to dictators who screw over their own poeple.

It is simple compassion that drives the richer countries to support the poorer ones, particularly those with oppressive regimes. But what you don't do is simply give money to the governments. Charity organisations such as Rotary International, and Round Table, give funds directly to the local counterpart Clubs in affected Countries. That guarantees that money honestly goes to where it is needed.


Do you really believe that rich countries give money to the poor ones for compassion? (Im talking about political giveaways not private/charity institutions)

Some countries has helped the dictatorial regime in our country and maintained close comercial and personal relationshis without any compassion for the brutality that regime was applying to the people...
There was even some leaked documets about money beeing sent personally to the dictators in charge to apply certain kind of economical meassures intended to beneffit other countries against the local economy... (of curse, as always when something related to corruption is vented, there was no way to proove that it really happened...)

Ive said "some countries" without naming anyone on pourpose to not hurt anyone's sensibilities with things that I can't personally proove...
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Message 1348782 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 18:12:16 UTC - in response to Message 1348772.

Ane I hope we do stay out of it. Europe hates are guts anyway, As does most of the planet.

James, we in the UK have a "Special Relationship" with the USA, so it is unfair to lump us in with the rest of them. It was the USA's choice to become the world cop, you the people demanded it after 9/11 to avoid it happening again. When you are in that position, of course you will be vilified, you would expect to be.

If I had my way every overseas base would be closed

The USA as arguably the top world power, necessarily needs to keep a physical presence in various strategic places around the word. That should be self evident.

And screw foriegn aid. We give money to dictators who screw over their own poeple.

It is simple compassion that drives the richer countries to support the poorer ones, particularly those with oppressive regimes. But what you don't do is simply give money to the governments. Charity organisations such as Rotary International, and Round Table, give funds directly to the local counterpart Clubs in affected Countries. That guarantees that money honestly goes to where it is needed.

Talk softly and carry a big stick.

In the UK we call it an iron fist in a velvet glove. Something British diplomacy is famous for.






We were the world cop before 9/11, Much to the chagrin of most of us citizens. Korea, Vietnam,, Just for starters. We propped up every 3rd world dictator even though they hated us because of communism. The wall fell because the Soviet Union couldnt outspend us. WHOOPPEee. Didnt do us a lot of good either.
And why do we need bases in Europe? So if something happens and Americans die we can join the fray? Germany is and allways has been a pretty tough country. Im sure that the Russian hordes wont make it far through the Fulda gap.

Now as far as Iran goes, We are responsible for that. If we had left Iraq alone those two idiot rulers would have destroyed each other.

As to aid you have a good idea.

I have no qualms with the UK. Thay stand by us as do a few other nations. Its allright to critisise us to. But i think its time we let other nation states or unions start taking some of the heat in the world stage.
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Message 1348784 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 18:15:30 UTC - in response to Message 1348782.


I have no qualms with the UK. Thay stand by us as do a few other nations. Its allright to critisise us to. But i think its time we let other nation states or unions start taking some of the heat in the world stage.



Good God Man! You serious? You want other nations to increase defence spending? Wot, & leave the trough dangerously low for them to sup at?

C'mon, stop dreaming!
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Message 1348788 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 18:20:33 UTC - in response to Message 1348784.


I have no qualms with the UK. Thay stand by us as do a few other nations. Its allright to critisise us to. But i think its time we let other nation states or unions start taking some of the heat in the world stage.



Good God Man! You serious? You want other nations to increase defence spending? Wot, & leave the trough dangerously low for them to sup at?

C'mon, stop dreaming!


LOL. I know what you mean. That would mean more money for our politicans to give a way.
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Message 1348839 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 19:38:28 UTC

As I have stated before, if Nostradamus is to be believed then WW3 won't
involve either the UK or America....just those across the channel in Europe.

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Message 1348854 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 20:03:54 UTC

Hiyah James.

Sorry about young Sirius, it's a cross we bear living in the UK :-)

But i think its time we let other nation states or unions start taking some of the heat in the world stage.

Well we are doing that in terms of coalitions against common enemies, Iraq and the Middle Est wars for example. There is no need for you to get involved in Europe, just let Germany and France get on with it. Unfortunately we are involved on the periphery due to our physical proximity.

And why do we need bases in Europe? So if something happens and Americans die we can join the fray?

That's a pretty powerful argument for doing just that, wouldn't you think? Apart from which, we share some of your military bases around the world for the same reason, and we are very grateful for that.

Im sure that the Russian hordes wont make it far through the Fulda gap.

They wouldn't need to given modern ICBM's, which is the reason the UK has disbanded, and is withdrawing the BAOR.

@Nick - Nostradamus has pretty much been ridiculed over the years. If you publish hundreds of Quatrains for long enough, one or two of them have half a chance of being partly true. WW3 is more likely to start in the Middle or Far East.

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Message 1348872 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 20:28:38 UTC - in response to Message 1348772.

It was the USA's choice to become the world cop, you the people demanded it after 9/11 to avoid it happening again. When you are in that position, of course you will be vilified, you would expect to be.

Started a little before 9/11. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine

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Message 1348876 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 20:33:30 UTC

The Monroe Doctrine of 1823 was mainly directed at Europe. International terrorism comes generally from other world countries. The only possible threat from Europe to the USA is maybe a financially, certainly not a military one.

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Message 1348877 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 20:37:11 UTC - in response to Message 1348788.


I have no qualms with the UK. Thay stand by us as do a few other nations. Its allright to critisise us to. But i think its time we let other nation states or unions start taking some of the heat in the world stage.



Good God Man! You serious? You want other nations to increase defence spending? Wot, & leave the trough dangerously low for them to sup at?

C'mon, stop dreaming!


LOL. I know what you mean. That would mean more money for our politicans to give a way.

Well, there is one way. We sell them the arms.

Now we would have to be sure those arms are only partially effective so we can sell to both sides, and make sure they have an expiration date so they have to keep buying them from us. Our treasury get fat on their hate. :)

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Message 1348904 - Posted: 20 Mar 2013, 22:58:32 UTC

@Nick - Nostradamus has pretty much been ridiculed over the years. If you publish hundreds of Quatrains for long enough, one or two of them have half a chance of being partly true. WW3 is more likely to start in the Middle or Far East.

...or way off the White cliffs of Dover. Funny, that's what I have said in the
past about Nostradaus, "He published so many Quatrains that some had to come
about at some time in the future".


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Message 1349026 - Posted: 21 Mar 2013, 8:55:33 UTC

I still don't see a ground war starting in mainland Europe, If that was still a realistic possibility we would not have withdrawn the BAOR. An economic war yes, as we are having now. Conflicts involving troops, tanks, and guns are mainly in the Middle East, and possibly in the Far East in the future if Korea blows up again between the North & South.

The Quatrains were written in such a loose and woolly way, that you can almost read what you want into most of them. Nostradamus was also an example of the rule of statistics. If you sat enough monkeys down at enough keyboards, given time one would type the complete works of Shakespeare. There are programs that take the Bible and print every 20th or 35th word then analyse the results. Somewhere there will usually be a recognisable phrase foretelling some prophesy of doom.

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Message 1349551 - Posted: 22 Mar 2013, 19:00:13 UTC
Last modified: 22 Mar 2013, 19:02:21 UTC

I still don't see a ground war starting in mainland Europe,

Not whilst there's an ECM binding Europe together with it's common currency.
One good reason why Brussels would be worried if the UK did leave the ECM for
the UK could then pick and chooses who's it's friends are in Europe.
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Message 1350392 - Posted: 25 Mar 2013, 3:55:38 UTC - in response to Message 1349026.

I still don't see a ground war starting in mainland Europe, If that was still a realistic possibility we would not have withdrawn the BAOR. An economic war yes, as we are having now. Conflicts involving troops, tanks, and guns are mainly in the Middle East, and possibly in the Far East in the future if Korea blows up again between the North & South.


So with what has been seen in Athens, Nicosia & now Paris - if the issues affecting the EU get a lot worse, there is no way the police of each nation could handle that type of civil unrest so troops will have to be put on the ground......

....Bloody Sunday writ large........

...or will you label that "police action"?

Remember of the 3 known "Police Actions", it currently stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.....

just in case you can't remember....

Korea, Vietnam, Northern Ireland.
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