An unexpected surprise No.2

This won't mean too much over the pond, but it has certainly shaken UK politics up. The Lib Dems were always expected to win but not by that big a majority, and the UKIP performance was quite a surprise. Even the "Beer, Baccy, & Crumpet Party" polled 235 votes! And the Lib Dems won the Berrylands by-election as well on the same day!

Isn't life Grand?

Eastleigh

*tiptoes in wearing heavy armour*

Ok, I'll start us by reposting Winterknights kind summary:

Turnout was 52.7%, down from 69.3% at the 2010 general election.


Mike Thornton (Liberal Democrat) 13,342 (32.06%, -14.48%)

Diane James (UKIP) 11,571 (27.80%, +24.20%)

Maria Hutchings (Conservative) 10,559 (25.37%, -13.96%)

John O'Farrell (Labour) 4,088 (9.82%, +0.22%)

Danny Stupple (Independent) 768 (1.85%, +1.56%)

Dr Iain Maclennan (National Health Action Party) 392 (0.94%)

Ray Hall (Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party) 235 (0.56%)

Kevin Milburn (Christian Party) 163 (0.39%)

Howling Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party) 136 (0.33%)

Jim Duggan (Peace Party) 128 (0.31%)

David Bishop (Elvis Loves Pets) 72 (0.17%)

Michael Walters (English Democrats) 70 (0.17%, -0.30%)

Daz Procter (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 62 (0.15%)

Colin Bex (Wessex Regionalist) 30 (0.07%)

So, the LibDems retained their seat.

While I'm not particularly fond of the LibDems, vastly better than UKIP.

If UKIP voters make up 15% of the population, something is going massively wrong in the UK. Far right parties gaining that much support is always an alarm signal.

So the Conservatives came third, eh? Some people realised that Cameron maybe wasn't such a great idea?

And the massive loss for LibDem doesn't surprise me. They sold out too much of their ideals when they formed a coalition with the Conservatives.
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A person who won't read has no advantage over one who can't read. (Mark Twain)

You make some interesting comments William, I'll try to answer some of them.

If UKIP voters make up 15% of the population,

So the Conservatives came third, eh? Some people realised that Cameron maybe wasn't such a great idea?

They sold out too much of their ideals when they formed a coalition with the Conservatives.

At the moment I think he is the best deal we can get. I might disagree with his politics, but no-one else comes close to his performances at the Dispatch Box. At PMQ he just slaughters Milliband, it's an artform in its own right.

Richard, I really do not think that you can compare the UK with Italy!!! For a start off, they have had 39 Prime Ministers since 1940. Their politicians and Governments are controlled by the Mafia, their economy is shot, and they and Spain are just about to be bailed out to the tune of £600 Billion by the EU. Italy/Spain

Of course an attractive female candidate is going to attract the phoar vote, as indeed any charismatic candidate would do. But you cant judge someone by an acceptance/losing speech in the small hours if the morning, when they are dead on their feet after a month of 18 hour days canvassing, that is just not fair.

if the protagonists were Silvio Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo? Great fun, and brilliant television -

Berlusconi has been involved in a number of controversies and over 20 court cases during his political career, including a conviction for tax evasion in October 2012, though he was not jailed. He was criticised for his electoral coalitions with right wing populist parties (the Lega Nord and the neo-fascist National Alliance) and for apologetic remarks about Mussolini, though he also officially apologised for Italy's actions in Libya during colonial rule. While in power, Berlusconi maintained ownerhsip of Mediaset, the largest media company in Italy, and was criticised for his dominance of the Italian media. His leadership was also undermined by sex scandals.

Grillo is often criticized for his lifestyle. In particular, critics blame him for owning a motor yacht and a Ferrari sports car, both being in contradiction with his well known environmentalist stance. In his blog he admits that he did, in fact, acquire both but has since sold them.[16] Grillo recently defended himself from similar attacks from the leader of the Democratic Party on this subject pointing out he earned his pay over the years and paid his taxes on them while the Hon. Pier Luigi Bersani made his fortune from public tax free money.

Grillo is also criticized for taking advantage of the Condono Tombale, a fiscal amnesty granted by the first Berlusconi government in 2001, which Grillo publicly opposed. Grillo commented on this issue during the V‑Day demonstration. He said that he had personally benefitted by only €500.

Grillo has proposed that members of the Italian Parliament who have a criminal record should be barred from public office. As Grillo himself has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter caused by a car accident, his critics say he has no right to represent Italians either. Grillo has always stated that he is not interested in becoming a member of the Italian Parliament anyway. Despite this, in July 2009 he publicly expressed his intention to present himself as a candidate for the PD's primary elections, which, however, does not imply automatic presence in the Italian parliament.

but I doubt the country would be better governed as a result.

I think Clegg and the winning Lib Dem candidate deserved the win, and on local issues.

The By-election came from a scandal, and the papers kept Clegg running with different statements as if that scandal is important to the voters.

Despite all this local issues got them back, quite rightly. The rest is unimportant to that electorate, the country and only important to the players in each scandal.

I hope the Parliamentary bubble media shut up some time rather than continuously stirying to break new non-news.
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It's good to be back amongst friends and colleagues

@John - You are quite correct in that it is being seen that the Lib Dem win was down to a good candidate, a strong & supportive local party, and a popular Council. Yes it was highly regrettable that the previous MP had to stand down for the reasons he did. But while in the job, he was a good and popular MP, who worked hard with the local party for the local people. The people wanted that local commitment to continue. The various allegations in the press were previously known about, but clearly the timing of the latest revelations was deliberate for obvious reasons. I doubt if the media will change much in the future. Certain newspapers want a change of government next election, and they will continue to attack the present one, hoping to influence peoples votes the next time round.

@Nick - Oh dear, sorry about that! I'm just an interested observer giving my own opinion, some of which is based on others views that I also agree with.

The country in the form of local by-elections does speak, always has done, it's like a half term school report.

Speaking in Downing Street, Mr Cameron said: "It is a disappointing result for the Conservative Party, but it is clear that, in mid-term by-elections, people want to register a protest

And 83% of UKIP voters said they wanted to send a message they were unhappy with the party they usually support nationally, compared with 35% of all voters.

Hiyah Nick,

In keeping with half term school reports, many tended to end with the note, "Must do better".

Hence a swing away, by the electorate, towards a fourth party; call it a protest party if one likes.

No ones listening to the protesters and acting accordingly

politics is finally getting exciting...for the right reasons or is it for the wrong reasons??

This says it all....

"This isn't a crisis for a government but a crisis of governance. We're living in a country where politicians talk about fixing things... but they seem powerless to deal with it.

There is a real sense that the whole of the Westminster village is living in its own world talking in its own terms and has lost touch.

A small professional managerial class is running British politics and they have very little to do with the ordinary lives of ordinary people up and down the country.

If we're going to avoid an Italian situation where comedians start getting elected then the whole British political establishment has got to be forced to engage much more actively with what ordinary people are feeling."

Source: - Bernard Jenkin - Conservative MP for Harwich & North Essex.

Never a truer word spoken in jest!
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I'll try and answer points from both of the last two posts together.

I would agree that the Lib Dems are not seen as a party able to run a majority Government. Firstly they are a small party compared to the main two, secondly they are self funded, unlike the Tories backed by the upper classes, industrialists, and rich landowners, and Labour bankrolled by the trade unions. Thirdly they have no track record of being in government, the last time being in the early 1900's and the WWII coalition. However in terms of popularity and influence they are the official 3rd party. Apparently being chased by UKIP, but well, flavours of the month come to mind.

At the moment the Lib Dems are in government for the first time in 100 years, they have 5 Cabinet Ministers, and a further 20 other ministers and junior ministers. Across both sides of parliament those people are generally recognised as doing a good job. No, we will never see a majority Lib Dem government, but what I think they have demonstrated is that they can play a meaningful part in a coalition government, either with the Tories or Labour. That is I think their future role, if you like, being a parliamentary policeman, curbing the worst excesses of either main party. As things stand, no one is prepared to give either main party a free hand to do exactly what they want without some means of keeping them on a leash.

What has gone wrong is that no current politicians have any experience in what it means to run a coalition government. There is too much squabbling and tit for tat going on which causes the general public to lose faith with politicians. Cameron tries to run it as a Tory majority government relying on his clout to push things through, cherry picking what he wants and doesn't want. He forgets that if it hadn't been for the Coalition he wouldn't have been PM in the first place. Had he been forced to hold another general election a few months later in 2010, Labour could well have won.

But underlying it all is the clear wishes of the people that they want less Europe, less immigration, and less bailing out of other economies. They want the NHS sorted out, and big businesses to pay their fair share of taxes. Neither main party seems to have any plans to tackle those in the short term despite what might be said. No wonder people are turning off and not giving either one a clear mandate. OK, the existing basically two party system needs to be changed, to address that we had the AV referendum in 2011 with a national vote. Based on the coalition agreement, the referendum was a simple majority yes/no question as to whether to replace the current First Past the Post (FPTP) electoral system used in general elections with the Alternative Vote (AV) system. On a turnout of 42 percent, 68 percent voted No and 32 percent voted Yes. The country was given a chance to change things but didn't. AV referendum

A Britain where the populous decides on it's destiny but not a destiny decided on by politicians

1. A majority Tory win
2. A majority Labour win
3. Lib/Con coalition
4. Lib/Lab coalition

1 is possible but with a very slim margin, 2 just won't happen. 3 means more of the same, 4 is possible. Labour wont make the same mistake twice by refusing to negotiate, and we did have the "Lib/Lab pact" back in 1977. But to be fair a Lib/Lab coalition in 2010 would have been almost unworkable anyway Lib/Lab pact I'm getting the impression that far too many people sit at home on their backside, reading too many newspapers, and saying tut tut that isn't right. The UK media in all its forms is politically driven, why do you think we have had the Levenson report? Levenson I spent 2 hours last Thursday night as an official teller outside my local polling station for a by-election, freezing my nuts off in the bitter cold. Why? Because I want to play a meaningful part in how this country is run, not just winging, moaning, and complaining about it. And yes my party did win, and I'll do more in the future.

But compare our political system with say France, you are not allowed to be President or a senior politician unless you have at least 3 mistresses. Take Italy, vote against the government you might not live to vote again. Take the USA, the Electoral College decides who will be President NOT the people. Take Europe generally, well actually don't bother, most of them are over here anyway. The rest of the world are virtually dictatorships in one form or another e.g. China, South America. Perhaps we should be grateful for what we have got.

A week is a long time in politics, 2 years is a lifetime ......

Chris, I don't have any faith in the Libs being a genuine alternative to the
Cons & Labs. One thing we three here, You, me and Sirius have in common is that
we all recognised that "The system" is in desperate need of change. Less
politics, less politicians in our faces, less political interference, less Europe hence allowing Great Britain to breath again. A Britain where the populous decides on it's destiny but not a destiny decided on by politicians for the latter has failed us miserably.

Vodafone, Barclays, Microsoft, Amazon, Starbucks, Google etc, all doing deals or avoiding their share of tax.

Major banks making serious losses & yet continue to pay out big bonuses....

Millionaires tax cuts.

Chris, I don't have any faith in the Libs being a genuine alternative to the Cons & Labs. One thing we three here, You, me and Sirius have in common is that we all recognised that "The system" is in desperate need of change.

Vodafone, Barclays, Microsoft, Amazon, Starbucks, Google etc, all doing deals or avoiding their share of tax.

I completely agree, they are doing it because they were allowed to get away with it under 13 years of Labour rule.

Hi Richard, what a welcome breath of fresh air :-)

reduce the burden of regulation on business.

Note that regulations are only a burden on badly run businesses

Perhaps we should have a world government which outlaws tax havens .....

Rolls Royce

I'll post this before Sirius or Nick do, to demonstrate that I am always open to seeing both sides of the story. This does not seem right to me at all, that company of all people. And rather than giving immediate typical sarcastic comments, I want to know more facts about it before I can sensibly comment.

But I have to say that upon the face of it, it does not make good reading.