Prejudice v. Science: When Theory Trumps Hard Evidence


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Message 1319675 - Posted: 24 Dec 2012, 18:19:14 UTC

Isn't it the fact that order may be predicted while the opposite may not be so?

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Message 1319798 - Posted: 25 Dec 2012, 4:08:14 UTC - in response to Message 1319675.

Isn't it the fact that order may be predicted while the opposite may not be so?


That depends on how you define predicted.

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Message 1319812 - Posted: 25 Dec 2012, 6:25:02 UTC
Last modified: 25 Dec 2012, 6:25:40 UTC

God does not play dice (Albert Einstein).
God cast the die, not the dice (cited by Banesh Hoffman in his book "Alberrt Einstein creator and rebel", written with Helen Dukas, Einstein's secretary.
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Message 1319978 - Posted: 25 Dec 2012, 22:21:47 UTC

All trees lean to the south-west where I live. Most wind comes from the north-east.

Most trees are green.

All trees have limbs and branches.

However, we cannot know how tall a tree will become, nor how many branches it will have. We can look at some and guess. We can look at the Design at some and make a guess.

Yes, I place myself in the school of thought of Dr. Einstein.

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Message 1319984 - Posted: 25 Dec 2012, 22:46:51 UTC - in response to Message 1319978.
Last modified: 25 Dec 2012, 23:30:15 UTC

There are some who might like to differ, Model works out trees' maximum height.

As long as you know the environment where the tree grows. And as the trees' growth is governed by fractals then the branches and height can be calculated.

edit]

All trees lean to the south-west where I live. Most wind comes from the north-east.

Thought I would just check this, as it did not ring true with me, having spent a few months in the south of the southern peninsular of Michigan. Which isn't so far away from you and also knowing you are in Tornado alley.

Looks like the wind in Springfield, Illinois mainly comes from the South or the West. http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/roses/wind_climatology.htm

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Message 1320006 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 0:46:55 UTC
Last modified: 26 Dec 2012, 0:50:48 UTC

That is true it does come from the south mostly. It blows the hardest from the north. All trees lean to the north east just a tad bit.


In this case you didn't think hard enough.

Yes, the tree can be calculated, but not EXACTLY. We cannot do that from the seed to it's death. That would be beyond us.

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Message 1320010 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 1:19:28 UTC
Last modified: 26 Dec 2012, 1:19:50 UTC

No such thing as chance. The design is clear to see.


Flip a coin three times and record the number of heads. Do this a hundred times or more and you will see the outline of the Normal curve emerge.

Chance is all around us

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Message 1320011 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 1:22:44 UTC - in response to Message 1320006.

That is true it does come from the south mostly. It blows the hardest from the north. All trees lean to the north east just a tad bit.


In this case you didn't think hard enough.

Yes, the tree can be calculated, but not EXACTLY. We cannot do that from the seed to it's death. That would be beyond us.

It is not only true that most winds come from the south but if you had looked carefully at the link and the annual rose diagrams. http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/roses/spi_rose_13.pdf You would see that winds from the south are also the strongest, by a significant margin.

Did notice you have changed the lean, this time. But even this is questionable, because light, especially when trees are young, also affects the lean.
A young tree that grows up in a mature wood, will grow towards the largest opening in the canopy.

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Message 1320016 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 1:31:16 UTC - in response to Message 1320010.

No such thing as chance. The design is clear to see.


Flip a coin three times and record the number of heads. Do this a hundred times or more and you will see the outline of the Normal curve emerge.

Chance is all around us

That would be Design, not chance.

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Message 1320018 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 1:35:44 UTC

You don't live here. You have not looked. You look only to the net for information that you have not properly aliened. All trees lean just a tad to the south-west.

When they drop their leaves they all are subject to the wind of winter.

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Message 1320020 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 1:58:01 UTC - in response to Message 1320018.

You don't live here. You have not looked. You look only to the net for information that you have not properly aliened. All trees lean just a tad to the south-west.

When they drop their leaves they all are subject to the wind of winter.

I think it is you that should take up knitting.

When you cannot belief the evidence published by a University in your own state then your credibility has to be question severly.

Now go away and do your knitting like a good little boy until you have gained some knowledge.

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Message 1320028 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 3:27:23 UTC - in response to Message 1320026.

Ah, I see. I should blindly believe a University. Not what I see with my own two eyes.

Please use glasses while knitting. ;-)

That surely is a case of Personal Prejudice vs the hard facts of Science.

How many people, do you think, would believe you rather than a University report?



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Message 1320035 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 4:09:00 UTC

The one's who go into the woods a look at trees.

True that the winds most often come from the south. Also true the hardest winds come from the north that effect the tree as a whole.

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Message 1320041 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 4:54:01 UTC - in response to Message 1320035.

The one's who go into the woods a look at trees.

True that the winds most often come from the south. Also true the hardest winds come from the north that effect the tree as a whole.

That is NOT what the diagram shows. The strongest winds and the most common winds come from the south.

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Message 1320043 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 4:59:18 UTC - in response to Message 1320017.
Last modified: 26 Dec 2012, 4:59:54 UTC

That is true it does come from the south mostly. It blows the hardest from the north. All trees lean to the north east just a tad bit.


In this case you didn't think hard enough.

Yes, the tree can be calculated, but not EXACTLY. We cannot do that from the seed to it's death. That would be beyond us.

It is not only true that most winds come from the south but if you had looked carefully at the link and the annual rose diagrams. http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/roses/spi_rose_13.pdf You would see that winds from the south are also the strongest, by a significant margin.

Did notice you have changed the lean, this time. But even this is questionable, because light, especially when trees are young, also affects the lean.
A young tree that grows up in a mature wood, will grow towards the largest opening in the canopy.


You should take up knitting. LOL!

ID, you show your true self.
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Message 1320190 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 21:55:51 UTC

Not going to take the bait boys.

Your Prejudice---Trumps Hard Evidence of what I can see with my own eyes.

It's not hard at all to trip you up.

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Message 1320195 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 21:59:59 UTC - in response to Message 1320190.

Not going to take the bait boys.

Your Prejudice---Trumps Hard Evidence of what I can see with my own eyes.

It's not hard at all to trip you up.

You have to show the proof. Without the proof your statements are empty.

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Message 1320210 - Posted: 26 Dec 2012, 22:37:24 UTC

I live in the center of the UK. The prevailing wind comes from the South West, but the strongest winds tend to be from the North West - so which way do our trees lean?

The answer is, most have a North Easterly lean, but there are quite a few that lean in other directions, for a variety of reasons, and some are "perverted", in that they lean one way at the base, but further up lean in a different direction.
In order to predict which way an individual tree is going to lean you need to know a vast amount of data about the both the history of that tree and its very specific environment. You can make assumptions based on those local observations that will say "That tree will PROBABLY grow to 50ft, and will PROBABLY lean to the North East". Equally there is probability that it will only grow to 30 feet and lean to the South West. You have to study a large population of trees to establish the general trends for an area, even then it is certain that there will "outliers" - trees within the population that do no follow the local trend. This is because trees are highly complex, living entities, driven by many variables and factors, not by some mechanistic design and manufacturing process such as we employ to produce cars and trucks.
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Message 1320248 - Posted: 27 Dec 2012, 0:00:10 UTC - in response to Message 1320010.
Last modified: 27 Dec 2012, 0:16:39 UTC

You say the following:

"Flip a coin three times and record the numbers of heads. Do this a hundred times or more and you will see the outline of the Normal curve emerge".

If you choose to to it only one time, the result may not be predicted in advance - the chance (or probability) is 50/50 (or 50 %), but the outcome is still there for you to see.

But the question becomes then - if you flip a coin three times and record the number of heads, that is one set of experiments. If you do the same thing or set of experiments "a hundred times", you possibly may have a hundred such sets.

By doing it this way it only becomes statistics of it.

But assume that each "a hundred such sets" rather represents one set and you choose to do each such set a hundred times. Do you also then see the Normal curve emerge, or may you be able to reach some other conclusion instead?

Is it perhaps a possibility that patterns or repeating sets of numbers may emerge from what appears as randomness and coincidence and therefore leads to a probability function or pattern? If so, how many times do you need to have to flip a coin and assume such sets (or sets of sets) in order to possibly be able to see such a repeating pattern emerge?

Does it perhaps have to deal with the number of flips in each set? Why not try flip a coin five times or ten times instead of three times? Maybe the result will be something else.

Can you deduce a probability function based on limits of the number of attempted tries?

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Message 1320263 - Posted: 27 Dec 2012, 0:58:59 UTC

all of that is based on a coin that has not ever been made...

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