Climate Change, 'Greenhouse' effects, Environment, etc part III


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Message 1328785 - Posted: 18 Jan 2013, 20:33:19 UTC - in response to Message 1328728.

Probably would not include Richard Towneley's result's, as in his time the population of the local town of Burnley was about 1200.

Half a century later coal mining and cotton weaving arrived and by the time of the American Civil war the population had grown to ~25,000. Putting Townley Hall inside the town rather than out in the country.

Quite correct. It isn't that the old numbers are wrong, it is that you can't compare the old numbers with the new numbers because the conditions at the collection location change over time.

Examples: 1)A station that 100 years ago was in the middle of a meadow that today is in the middle of a paved parking lot. 2)A station that has to be moved because of development. 3)A station that has its instrumentation changed (maybe because it is found to be out of calibration)

All I'm saying is that the error bars get bigger when you attempt to massage the data to remove the effect.


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Message 1329013 - Posted: 19 Jan 2013, 6:24:48 UTC - in response to Message 1328785.

Probably would not include Richard Towneley's result's, as in his time the population of the local town of Burnley was about 1200.

Half a century later coal mining and cotton weaving arrived and by the time of the American Civil war the population had grown to ~25,000. Putting Townley Hall inside the town rather than out in the country.

Quite correct. It isn't that the old numbers are wrong, it is that you can't compare the old numbers with the new numbers because the conditions at the collection location change over time.

Examples: 1)A station that 100 years ago was in the middle of a meadow that today is in the middle of a paved parking lot. 2)A station that has to be moved because of development. 3)A station that has its instrumentation changed (maybe because it is found to be out of calibration)

All I'm saying is that the error bars get bigger when you attempt to massage the data to remove the effect.


Thanks, That is info that i didnt know. And it makes sense. So what do you use for years of old? Tree rings, core samples of earth and lakes and oceans?
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Message 1329136 - Posted: 19 Jan 2013, 16:57:06 UTC - in response to Message 1329013.
Last modified: 19 Jan 2013, 17:03:49 UTC

Thanks, That is info that i didnt know. And it makes sense. So what do you use for years of old? Tree rings, core samples of earth and lakes and oceans?

There are all manner of 'proxies' that are then matched together to create a consistent and verified record. Some proxies are more useful than others for what you're trying to determine. Often, multiple effects on what is being measure need to be untangled. This is exploited by the climate "denialists" to suggest that supposedly we can't determine anything!

For example:

Some measurements for environmental conditions can be made directly from such as gas bubbles trapped in ice cores. Unfortunately for the example of ice cores, we only have those for the Antarctic. Hence the great effort in chasing proxies from a good spread of locations elsewhere around the world.

Tree rings are controversial in that they are a measure of annual growth and so show the sum of ALL environmental conditions affecting growth for that tree for each year. "Growth conditions" is a mix of most significantly how favourable were the sunlight, temperature, and rainfall for that species of tree for that location.

Follow the articles on: Climate Record as a start.


However, also note that the changes wrought over the recent centuries are by far the most significant and we have good records for that period!


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Message 1329141 - Posted: 19 Jan 2013, 17:10:33 UTC
Last modified: 19 Jan 2013, 17:15:04 UTC

Yet more ongoing fossil fuels corruption:


Nations agree on legally binding mercury rules

More than 140 countries have agreed on a set of legally binding measures to curb mercury pollution, at UN talks.

Delegates in Geneva approved measures to control the use of the highly toxic metal in order to reduce the amount of mercury released into the environment.

Mercury can produce a range of adverse human health effects, including permanent damage to the nervous system.

The UN recently published data that showed mercury emissions were rising in a number of developing nations. ...

... a growth in small-scale mining and coal burning were the main reasons for the rise in emissions.

As a result of rapid industrialisation, South-East Asia was the largest regional emitter and accounted for almost half of the element's annual global emissions. ...

... Mercury can be released into the environment through a number of industrial processes including mining, metal and cement production, and the burning of fossil fuels.

Once emitted, it persists in the environment for a long time...



Beijing air pollution: What is causing record-breaking smog in China?

Levels of pollution have soared past the levels considered hazardous by the World Health Organisation, as dense smog hangs over Beijing and 30 other cities in northern and eastern China. ...

... The China Daily said there are also not enough 'green areas' in the city 'to help soak up the fumes discharged by vehicles and industries'.

There has also been rapid industrialisation in China and a heavy reliance on coal power, which have both contributed to the problem. ...



There is the smog in China from just the particulates from burning fossil fuels. What would that lot look like if the CO2 also lingered and was equally visible from what had been burnt?!

Cleaning up our act sooner rather than later can only be a win-win for ourselves and for the only planet upon which we depend...


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Message 1329997 - Posted: 22 Jan 2013, 0:01:21 UTC

Quite a mixed bag of bad and good...


Firstly, a look at the state of play for the Tobacco industry and the remarkable parallels to what we are seeing now from the fossil fuels industry. Spookily, the online comments echo a similar stance to that often taken by the fossil fuels sympathisers/climate-pollution-denialists:

Childhood asthma 'admissions down' after smoking ban

... A study showed a 12% drop in the first year after the law to stop smoking in enclosed public places came into force.

The authors say there is growing evidence that many people are opting for smoke-free homes as well.

Asthma UK says the findings are "encouraging". ...




Note that for the Tobacco industry, the story is perhaps 30 or 40 years ahead of the state of play for the polluting fossil fuels industry. Are there a few decades yet to play out for their profits and the pollution be damned? Can we survive that?...

Can oil save the rainforest?

... A walk in this Garden of Eden is revelatory, like going to the supermarket via the chemists' and the zoo. These berries make soap, those plants are good contraceptives, this leaf is good for kidney and heart diseases. There are troops of spider and woolly monkeys, frogs smaller than a fingernail, tapirs the size of horses, as well as ants which taste of lemon and berries so poisonous you could die in seconds if you ate one. Most amazing is the "walking tree" which follows the light, hitches up its roots and moves 7m or more.

Last month, some Yale University undergrads stumbled across a mushroom capable of eating polyurethane plastic. It could revolutionise landfills. "Frankly," says Swing, "no one knows what is here."

It wasn't until he and a colleague from San Francisco University in Quito paddled their way here 20 years ago to set up the science research station that anyone really understood the true abundance of life in Yasuni.

And it wasn't until 2007, when 960m barrels of oil were discovered in one part of the Yasuni park, that people realised that the most biodiverse place on earth could be totally destroyed. The oil under Yasuni, it was calculated, would earn Ecuador $7bn but would last the world just 10 days. ...

... but he also knew it would push the oil frontier deeper into the Amazon, release 400m tonnes of climate-changing gases and make the destruction of a vast and pristine area inevitable. ...

... a unique chance...



What is causing Australia's heatwave?

... It is very unusual to have such widespread extreme temperatures — and have them persist for so long...

... As the climate system warms due to increasing greenhouse gases, more energy is retained in the lower atmosphere. That extra energy influences all our weather and climate. ...

... A relatively small change in the average temperature can easily double the frequency of extreme heat events. Australia has warmed steadily since the 1940s, and the probability of extreme heat has now increased almost five-fold compared with 50 years ago.

Within the past decade, the number of extreme heat records in Australia has outnumbered extreme cold records by almost 3:1 for daytime maximum temperatures and 5:1 for night-time minimum temperature. ...

... These changes will result in weather events which are increasingly beyond our prior experiences.

And it's not just temperature extremes. Climate model projections indicate that the frequency of many different types of extreme weather will change as the planet warms.




Boris Johnson says snow casts doubt on climate change science

... The best strategy is to view these articles as trolling, for that is largely what they are: blatant attempts to jam a sharp stick into a seething nest that is The Climate Debate. These writers want to wind you up and provoke a reaction. By doing so, you are playing into their hands. Do not feed the trolls, as the saying goes.

But Boris Johnson, the eye-wateringly well-paid Telegraph columnist who also does a nice turn as the mayor of London, needs to be viewed in an altogether different context. He is, after all, widely touted as the next prime minister of this country.

Unfortunately, this means we must take his latest column seriously. Calculated buffoonery and Bullingdon japes aside, this man might actually one day hold the key to 10 Downing Street. His views are, therefore, important and deserve interrogation.

So, what has he actually said?...

... So we should view Johnson's views through this political prism. He's now an acutely ambitious politician, after all. Through columns such as this, he is signalling ... But in doing so he is also signalling to the wider electorate that he treats science as a political plaything that can be tossed about, or ignored, at his convenience. Voters would be wise to remember this when he next comes asking for their support.




US urged to capitalise on hundreds of billions in renewable energy investment

... US could net $276bn from renewable energy investments over next six years...



Shell's plans in Arctic at risk as Obama advisers call for halt to oil exploration

After several equipment failures and safety and environmental lapses, Shell's drilling plans now under review

The entire future of Shell's drilling plans in the Arctic was put in doubt on Friday after two of Barack Obama's most trusted advisers called for a permanent halt to oil exploration.

In a piece for Bloomberg news, Carol Browner, who was Obama's climate adviser during his first two years in office, and John Podesta, who headed his 2009 transition team, said they now believed there was no safe way to drill for oil in the Arctic...





In amongst that mix, there is hope yet if we can get our positive act together to overcome the fossil fuels industry death-wish FUD soon enough!

Two apt quotes from our famous Winston Churchill:

"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences."

"America always makes the right decision - but only after trying every other alternative first."




All on our only one planet,
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Message 1330074 - Posted: 22 Jan 2013, 5:27:44 UTC - in response to Message 1329136.

Some measurements for environmental conditions can be made directly from such as gas bubbles trapped in ice cores.

Unless you are going to argue circular logic based on CO2 levels I don't think there is a way to get the temperature from a gas bubble. Thickness of yearly deposit is not reliable for the same reasons tree rings aren't.

Unfortunately for the example of ice cores, we only have those for the Antarctic. Hence the great effort in chasing proxies from a good spread of locations elsewhere around the world.

Tree rings are controversial in that they are a measure of annual growth and so show the sum of ALL environmental conditions affecting growth for that tree for each year. "Growth conditions" is a mix of most significantly how favourable were the sunlight, temperature, and rainfall for that species of tree for that location.

Yes and they may be what essentially everything is based upon as there are so few other options available that extend back in time.

As we go back in time the error bars must get larger. As you have to marry one measurement set to another the basic errors in the original set must carry into the new one and the new one has its own error set. Eventually all such numerical integration becomes useless. The very same happens as you run a climate model forward from the present day. This is basic math.

The issue with instrumented sets and the local changes in the environment not being accounted for is rather obvious. Back 40 years ago it was predicted that Manhattan would be under water today. That was because the instrumented data set behind the predictions was full changes in the local environment around the stations that had not been accounted for resulting in a much higher rate of warming. As the instrumented data set has been massaged, essentially slowing the rate of increase, the predictions have become less dire. But it is a rad flag caution that so much depends on the single data set being right. And that data set is not so perfect as it looks at first blush.

As I said, it doesn't mean there isn't warming, it means the error bars are much larger than some would like to admit.

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Message 1330151 - Posted: 22 Jan 2013, 13:49:40 UTC - in response to Message 1330074.

... Unless you are going to argue circular logic based on CO2 levels I don't think there is a way to get the temperature from a gas bubble. ...


This is a good article, please read and learn and appreciate:


Paleoclimatology - The Ice Core Record

... The ice cores can provide an annual record of temperature, precipitation, atmospheric composition, volcanic activity, and wind patterns. In a general sense, the thickness of each annual layer tells how much snow accumulated at that location during the year. Differences in cores taken from the same area can reveal local wind patterns by showing where the snow drifted. More importantly, the make-up of the snow itself can tell scientists about past temperatures. As with marine fossils, the ratio of oxygen isotopes in the snow reveals temperature, though in this case, the ratio tells how cold the air was at the time the snow fell. ...



Sorry to burst your bubble: The data is still there and remains consistent still, still telling the same story.

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Message 1330153 - Posted: 22 Jan 2013, 14:05:45 UTC

China and Australia top list of 'carbon bomb' projects

China and Australia top a global list of planned oil, gas and coal projects that will act as "carbon bombs" and push the planet towards catastrophic climate change, a Greenpeace report warned on Tuesday.

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Message 1330169 - Posted: 22 Jan 2013, 15:38:10 UTC

Great Moments in Failed Predictions
You can add these to the "Chicken Little" prediction I posted earlier in this thread that half the world's population would be be dead by the end of 2012 due the climate change.

The Climate Change Doomsayers just don't get it. The more extreme their predictions become, the more they sound like any other "End of the Worldist". The general public has developed a healthy scepticism to people who claim that life as we know it is doomed because, the second coming is nigh, there is a comet in Orion, the calender of a dead civilisation is running out, gay marriage is permitted in some jurisdictions, etc, etc, etc.

The "warmists" would find much more credibility if their predictions sounded a lot less like the drug induced fantasies of a Hollywood disaster movie script writer.

Given that the Earth could be warming, wouldn't their efforts be better placed telling us how to deal with the problem ? Obviously there will be swings and roundabouts here, as weather patterns change, some areas will become less habitable and less suitable for agriculture, while in others the reverse will apply. Shouldn't the scientists be putting some effort into identifying these positive areas so that putting infrastructure in place can be started.

I remember reading an article a couple of years ago that stated that even if the entire planet went to a zero CO2 economy tomorrow, that warming would still occur for another 250 years and that it would be a further 500 years before things returned to "normal" (whatever that is). So rather than trying to play King Canute and hold back the sea, shouldn't we be trying to adapt now ?

T.A.

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Message 1330195 - Posted: 22 Jan 2013, 20:03:58 UTC - in response to Message 1330169.
Last modified: 22 Jan 2013, 20:04:09 UTC

... shouldn't we be trying to adapt now ?...

Yes we should, and the sooner the better.

Meanwhile, we also shouldn't be adding to the problem to make it yet worse and worse for yet longer.

The media rhetoric and hype about all this is worthy of another thread. News publishing or just the peddling of sensationalism to sell 'stories'? Unfortunately, sensationalism anywhere discredits the source story, regardless of the full truth...


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Message 1330246 - Posted: 22 Jan 2013, 22:20:23 UTC - in response to Message 1330151.

... Unless you are going to argue circular logic based on CO2 levels I don't think there is a way to get the temperature from a gas bubble. ...


This is a good article, please read and learn and appreciate:


Paleoclimatology - The Ice Core Record

... The ice cores can provide an annual record of temperature, precipitation, atmospheric composition, volcanic activity, and wind patterns. In a general sense, the thickness of each annual layer tells how much snow accumulated at that location during the year. Differences in cores taken from the same area can reveal local wind patterns by showing where the snow drifted. More importantly, the make-up of the snow itself can tell scientists about past temperatures. As with marine fossils, the ratio of oxygen isotopes in the snow reveals temperature, though in this case, the ratio tells how cold the air was at the time the snow fell. ...



Sorry to burst your bubble: The data is still there and remains consistent still, still telling the same story.

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Perhaps you should explain the ASSUMPTION made in http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_OxygenBalance/oxygen_balance.php upon which your data is based. I'll admit the assumption sounds reasonable, but until it is tested it is still an assumption.

I love the graph of temperature in your link. About 17,500 years ago it was 8C less than it settled upon 10,000 years ago. Also note how the data is much smoother in the past as it is only much longer term average then the spiky data from recent instrumented times. Oh that shows just why those error bands get bigger and bigger as we go into the past.

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Message 1330932 - Posted: 24 Jan 2013, 22:01:00 UTC - in response to Message 1330246.
Last modified: 24 Jan 2013, 22:01:48 UTC

Perhaps you should explain the ASSUMPTION made in http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Paleoclimatology_OxygenBalance/oxygen_balance.php upon which your data is based. I'll admit the assumption sounds reasonable, but until it is tested it is still an assumption. ...

All carefully compared to present day physics and real-world measurement. The assumption is that the laws of physics have not changed, and that assumption is very thoroughly tested elsewhere in the world of physics for the timescale of our universe!

Thanks for reading and a good question.


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Message 1330934 - Posted: 24 Jan 2013, 22:04:43 UTC

An example of positive hope for our planet and people?


Climate change Obama can believe in

... The President’s decision to make global warming a key theme of his speech has sparked new hope that the world may be able, at last, to mount a truly global response to one of its biggest threats.

The President sprung a surprise by devoting more words to the climate threat than to any other specific policy, signalling he would make it a personal mission of his second administration. He promised: “We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations.”

He went on to take a swipe at the sceptics and highlighted the extreme weather events of the last year, including the drought and Hurricane Sandy, which, while not directly attributable to global warming, are consistent with predictions of what will happen in a world of rising temperatures – and which have turned many American minds back to the climate question. ...



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Message 1330966 - Posted: 24 Jan 2013, 23:22:48 UTC - in response to Message 1330932.

All carefully compared to present day physics and real-world measurement. The assumption is that the laws of physics have not changed, and that assumption is very thoroughly tested elsewhere in the world of physics for the timescale of our universe!

That is one, there are several more ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxygen-18
Assuming that atmospheric circulation and elevation has not changed significantly over the poles
Note that significantly is not defined ...

Also the assumption that the ratio of O16/O18 is stable on earth (not being bombarded by comets or solar wind for instance) is another.

Another being that O16/O18 is uniformly distributed so that say a rift zone doesn't belch a large pocket of one preferentially over another.

All this just makes the error bars bigger.

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Message 1331048 - Posted: 25 Jan 2013, 5:19:07 UTC

Exclusive: Billionaires secretly fund attacks on climate science

Audit trail reveals that donors linked to fossil fuel industry are backing global warming sceptics

A secretive funding organisation in the United States that guarantees anonymity for its billionaire donors has emerged as a major operator in the climate "counter movement" to undermine the science of global warming, The Independent has learnt.

The Donors Trust, along with its sister group Donors Capital Fund, based in Alexandria, Virginia, is funnelling millions of dollars into the effort to cast doubt on climate change without revealing the identities of its wealthy backers or that they have links to the fossil fuel industry.

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Message 1331122 - Posted: 25 Jan 2013, 12:29:28 UTC - in response to Message 1329997.

Can oil save the rainforest?

... A walk in this Garden of Eden is revelatory, like going to the supermarket via the chemists' and the zoo. These berries make soap, those plants are good contraceptives, this leaf is good for kidney and heart diseases. There are troops of spider and woolly monkeys, frogs smaller than a fingernail, tapirs the size of horses, as well as ants which taste of lemon and berries so poisonous you could die in seconds if you ate one. Most amazing is the "walking tree" which follows the light, hitches up its roots and moves 7m or more.

Last month, some Yale University undergrads stumbled across a mushroom capable of eating polyurethane plastic. It could revolutionise landfills. "Frankly," says Swing, "no one knows what is here."

It wasn't until he and a colleague from San Francisco University in Quito paddled their way here 20 years ago to set up the science research station that anyone really understood the true abundance of life in Yasuni.

And it wasn't until 2007, when 960m barrels of oil were discovered in one part of the Yasuni park, that people realised that the most biodiverse place on earth could be totally destroyed. The oil under Yasuni, it was calculated, would earn Ecuador $7bn but would last the world just 10 days. ...

... but he also knew it would push the oil frontier deeper into the Amazon, release 400m tonnes of climate-changing gases and make the destruction of a vast and pristine area inevitable. ...

... a unique chance...


A unique chance that is under continued threat from nearby:


Avaaz: Oil showdown in the Amazon

There is one area of the Ecuadorian Amazon that is so pristine that the whole ecosystem has been preserved and even jaguars roam free! But the government is now threatening to go in and drill for oil.

The local indigenous people have been resisting, but they are afraid that oil companies will break up the community with bribes. When they heard that people across the world might stand with them and make a stink to save their land, they were thrilled. The president of Ecuador claims to stand for indigenous rights and the environment, but he has just come up with a new plan to bring oil speculators in to 4 million hectares of jungle. If we can say 'wait a minute, you're supposed to be the green president who says no one can buy Ecuador' ...



Also, there are too many examples of where sudden oil wealth only feeds a very corrupt few and badly despoils the area and the politics of the host country for the worst...



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Message 1332161 - Posted: 28 Jan 2013, 5:28:19 UTC

Uh oh, models wrong again ... now we know the cause is over population ...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2013/jan/27/scienceofclimatechange-climate-change

A study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that the heat thrown off by major metropolitan areas on America's east coast caused winter warming across large areas of North America, thousands of miles away from those cities.

On the flip side, however, changes in atmospheric conditions had an opposite effect in Europe – lowering autumn temperatures by as much as 1 degree C (1.8F).


"What really surprised us was that this energy use was a tiny amount, and yet it can create such a wide impact far away from the heat source," said Guang Zhang, a scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, who led the study. "We didn't expect it to be this much."

Just what does that say about the accuracy of the data set used as the baseline for climate warming studies, which assumes that conditions were stable over a many century period when the baseline was recorded?

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Message 1332182 - Posted: 28 Jan 2013, 7:20:29 UTC - in response to Message 1217267.

What I hear is that the alarmism doesn't hold true to facts. Even if global waming is true it doesn't constitute 'crisis'. Furthermore, even if this is some sort of a problem there's nothing we can do about it and the price of actual human lives isn't worth the 'correction' prescribed by the religion of enviornmental zealotry. Nothing that proclaims a repair of supposed enviornmental 'damage' can justify the sacrifice of literally millions of human lives on its altar.
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Message 1332183 - Posted: 28 Jan 2013, 7:27:10 UTC - in response to Message 1225281.

Ice does NOT RAISE THE WATER LEVEL. LOL

Ice is neutrally boyant! 10% of an iceberg is above sea level. 90 below. The displacement is the same regardless of what form H20 takes. Come on! This is basic physics!!!
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Message 1332184 - Posted: 28 Jan 2013, 7:30:33 UTC - in response to Message 1332183.

bump
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