At Least 100 Billion Planets

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Profile William Rothamel
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Message 1185397 - Posted: 15 Jan 2012, 3:22:03 UTC - in response to Message 1185354.  
Last modified: 15 Jan 2012, 3:34:59 UTC

it was Enrico Fermi who said ."where are they"

We have a somewhat average star but nobody can claim that the conditions on Earth are replicated anywhere else. Some think that this is abundantly likely. I feel that there is a very sparse sprinkling of such planets in our Galaxy. Time will tell. right now these are all opinions.

The uncertainty in the Drake equation and my musing that there are maybe a dozen or so necessary parameters for intelligent life that are possibly only 20% likely is infinite. Can intelligent life survive without Ozone, a tidally locked moon, a magnetosphere, a near circular orbit etc ?. I don't think so and the Drake equation does not address them.

As we investigate more planets these percentages may become more exact. The reason for my hot air on the subject is to caution against the "Billions and Billions of planets teeming with life" given by Professor Drake and Carl Sagan. Perhaps there are Billions in the entire Universe but I doubt any big numbers in our Galaxy.
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Message 1185647 - Posted: 16 Jan 2012, 10:45:31 UTC - in response to Message 1185041.  

But more than likely we are being ignored until we have the capability of FTL speed, or at least until we have spacecraft that have the ability to take off and land on their own.


I think Mr. Einstein would like a word with you
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Message 1185656 - Posted: 16 Jan 2012, 11:19:15 UTC

I think Mr. Einstein would like a word with you


And I also with him, but sadly that is not possible :-) I think that in the next 15-20 years scientists will discover FTL speeds, but probably they will be restricted to laboratory conditions. I can't see that translating into spaceships with human passengers.

However what I do believe will be possible is some sort of communications technology at FTL speed. Then if we do detect intelligent life elsewhere, we could talk to them within practical time-scales.

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Profile William Rothamel
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Message 1185658 - Posted: 16 Jan 2012, 11:28:33 UTC - in response to Message 1185656.  
Last modified: 16 Jan 2012, 11:28:47 UTC

It is in fact information that cannot travel faster than light. Try to explain how you could send a message using quantum entanglement and you will see what I mean.
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Message 1185728 - Posted: 16 Jan 2012, 16:35:38 UTC

William, according to Einstein, matter closely approaching to, or at the speed of light, will have infinite mass, and therefore would require infinite energy to move it.

Surely a radio signal doesn't have any mass, nor does a laser beam .....
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Message 1185734 - Posted: 16 Jan 2012, 16:43:52 UTC - in response to Message 1185658.  
Last modified: 16 Jan 2012, 16:45:21 UTC

It is in fact information that cannot travel faster than light. Try to explain how you could send a message using quantum entanglement and you will see what I mean.


Remembering from many, many years ago:

Einstein thinking is that mass travelling THRU space FTL is impossible.

But if you can somehow "capture" some space: It is theoretical this space can be made to travel FTL and any mass inside will too.

I'm probably wrong!
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
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Message 1185838 - Posted: 16 Jan 2012, 23:20:26 UTC - in response to Message 1185734.  
Last modified: 16 Jan 2012, 23:22:56 UTC

it is the distance between objects that is accelerating.

A photon has no rest mass. it has energy given by e= plank's constant times it's frequency.
It has this mass equivalency but no rest mass as it is a disturbance in the electromagnetic field in free space.

Remember, a wave has energy but nothing actually travels longitudinally; only up and down.
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Message 1198074 - Posted: 21 Feb 2012, 1:48:46 UTC - in response to Message 1184787.  

Put this into your view of the Drake equation:


NASA: Study Shows Our Galaxy Has at Least 100 Billion Planets

Our Milky Way galaxy contains a minimum of 100 billion planets, according to a detailed statistical study based on the detection of three planets located outside our solar system, called exoplanets. ...

... The survey results show that our galaxy contains, on average, a minimum of one planet for every star. This means that it's likely there is a minimum of 1,500 planets within just 50 light-years of Earth.

The study is based on observations taken over six years by the PLANET (Probing Lensing Anomalies NETwork) collaboration, using a technique called microlensing to survey the galaxy for planets. ...



I suspect that the upcoming Kepler results will explode that number to something much greater...


Just heard that the "100 billion planets", in true Sir Patrick Moore style, got a brief but interesting mention on the BBC TV "Sky at Night" program. Hopefully a story and astronomy that will develop for some time yet...


Keep searchin',
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Message 1198188 - Posted: 21 Feb 2012, 11:49:05 UTC - in response to Message 1185656.  

I think Mr. Einstein would like a word with you


And I also with him, but sadly that is not possible :-) I think that in the next 15-20 years scientists will discover FTL speeds, but probably they will be restricted to laboratory conditions. I can't see that translating into spaceships with human passengers.

However what I do believe will be possible is some sort of communications technology at FTL speed. Then if we do detect intelligent life elsewhere, we could talk to them within practical time-scales.



I think that's extremely optimistic. In my opinion, it'll take hundreds of years, if not thousands.
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Message 1198348 - Posted: 22 Feb 2012, 0:51:08 UTC - in response to Message 1198074.  
Last modified: 22 Feb 2012, 1:35:13 UTC

Just heard that the "100 billion planets", in true Sir Patrick Moore style, got a brief but interesting mention on the BBC TV "Sky at Night" program. Hopefully a story and astronomy that will develop for some time yet...


If there were just a dozen requirements that a planet had to possess to sustain life as we know it and each of these turns out to be 20% likely then

(.2^12)(100^9)= 4

I happen to think that that may well be right. 4 others in our galaxy !!
Time may prove me totally wrong in my SWAG. If true then we will most likely never confirm the existence of any similar intelligence. I do think that if all the conditions are met then life will start and evolve unless it were a one in a billion lucky lightning stike that produced the first amino acids.

We can take solace in the fact that there are a 100 Billion galaxies. Sometimes when I walk through the park each morning I think that there may be many more requirements for a planet to support life. It will be interesting over the years to see how these percentages go.

It will be interesting to see if life developed o Mars and how long it lasted.
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Message 1198483 - Posted: 22 Feb 2012, 14:27:31 UTC - in response to Message 1198348.  
Last modified: 22 Feb 2012, 14:27:55 UTC

Just heard that the "100 billion planets", in true Sir Patrick Moore style, got a brief but interesting mention on the BBC TV "Sky at Night" program. Hopefully a story and astronomy that will develop for some time yet...


If there were just a dozen requirements that a planet had to possess to sustain life as we know it and each of these turns out to be 20% likely then

(.2^12)(100^9)= 4

I happen to think that that may well be right. 4 others in our galaxy !!
Time may prove me totally wrong in my SWAG. If true then we will most likely never confirm the existence of any similar intelligence. I do think that if all the conditions are met then life will start and evolve unless it were a one in a billion lucky lightning stike that produced the first amino acids.

We can take solace in the fact that there are a 100 Billion galaxies. Sometimes when I walk through the park each morning I think that there may be many more requirements for a planet to support life. It will be interesting over the years to see how these percentages go.

It will be interesting to see if life developed o Mars and how long it lasted.


Mars will be a test for all the estimates.
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
--- George Santayana
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Message 1198742 - Posted: 23 Feb 2012, 7:48:12 UTC

Another possible factor that hasn't been discussed much in the search for planets that could support life is the existence of moons around some of the extra solar gas giants that have been found and the possibility that there may be far more moons with the right conditions than there are planets.
Bob DeWoody

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Message 1198793 - Posted: 23 Feb 2012, 12:38:39 UTC - in response to Message 1198742.  

Another possible factor that hasn't been discussed much in the search for planets that could support life is the existence of moons around some of the extra solar gas giants that have been found and the possibility that there may be far more moons with the right conditions than there are planets.


Agreed. But would the conditions on these large moons be stabilized enough to allow intelligent creatures to evolve? Perhaps the Earth/Moon model is necessary.

To start life, a moon orbiting a planet may not be necessary. But, a large moon stabilizes a planets' rotation, which is necessary for long evolutionary processes (less severe climate changes).

Also, a large moon (causing tides) will also be necessary for liquid life to evolve onto land.

The search for life is an important question. But aren't we really searching for intelligent life?
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
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Message 1198835 - Posted: 23 Feb 2012, 16:35:31 UTC
Last modified: 23 Feb 2012, 16:35:59 UTC

Since we only have earth as an example I think sometimes people assume too much in their hypothesis about the factors required for intelligent life to arise. Lets face it, up to about a million years ago an investigation of earth would not have yielded positive data and some other form of intelligent life might have concluded that earth did not have the right conditions.
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Message 1198846 - Posted: 23 Feb 2012, 17:02:30 UTC - in response to Message 1198835.  

might have concluded that earth did not have the right conditions


That's right, Time is one of the conditions. Given all the other necessary conditions what is the probability on a given planet that is found that enough time has gone on for intelligent life to form. Planets that have cooled to habitable temperatures may still need a few billion years to spawn intelligent life as we would define ourselves.

The Earth would have been correctly classified as not being able to support such life back a few million years ago or perhaps you could argue 100,000 years ago.
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Message 1198902 - Posted: 23 Feb 2012, 18:28:49 UTC - in response to Message 1198835.  

Since we only have earth as an example I think sometimes people assume too much in their hypothesis about the factors required for intelligent life to arise. Lets face it, up to about a million years ago an investigation of earth would not have yielded positive data and some other form of intelligent life might have concluded that earth did not have the right conditions.


My personal question regarding intelligent life, not just life, is this:

Why would evolution result in such a creature? Even assuming billions of planets with life.

I'm not discussing dolphin, non-human ape like creatures, etc. They can't advance beyond their environment.

If one wants to say a god produces intelligent creatures, OK. But strictly from an evolutionary point of view: WHY?

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
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Message 1198988 - Posted: 23 Feb 2012, 21:15:39 UTC - in response to Message 1198348.  

I happen to think that that may well be right. 4 others in our galaxy !!



Even if you're right and there are only a handful in our Galaxy, they aren't necessarily evenly distributed throughout it.

Where there's one, there could be another close by.

Lt


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Message 1199121 - Posted: 24 Feb 2012, 3:11:14 UTC - in response to Message 1198988.  


Where there's one, there could be another close by.


Yes that's right. But in a Galaxy 300,000 light-years across, how likely is it that it would be close by.
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Message 1199146 - Posted: 24 Feb 2012, 5:54:46 UTC - in response to Message 1199121.  


Where there's one, there could be another close by.


Yes that's right. But in a Galaxy 300,000 light-years across, how likely is it that it would be close by.



It seems reasonable to begin a search where one example already exists. If the conditions were favorable in the beginning over a large enough area (Galactic scale) maybe other systems in the 'favorable zone' started out just as well off.


Lt
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Message 1199640 - Posted: 25 Feb 2012, 11:42:27 UTC - in response to Message 1198348.  

[quote]
It will be interesting to see if life developed o Mars and how long it lasted.


I hope they realize that we already brought life to the planet in the form of microbes.
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