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At Least 100 Billion Planets
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ML1 Send message Joined: 25 Nov 01 Posts: 20265 Credit: 7,508,002 RAC: 20 |
Put this into your view of the Drake equation: Just heard that the "100 billion planets", in true Sir Patrick Moore style, got a brief but interesting mention on the BBC TV "Sky at Night" program. Hopefully a story and astronomy that will develop for some time yet... Keep searchin', Martin See new freedom: Mageia Linux Take a look for yourself: Linux Format The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3) |
Convergence Send message Joined: 23 Jun 08 Posts: 117 Credit: 2,928,788 RAC: 0 |
I think Mr. Einstein would like a word with you I think that's extremely optimistic. In my opinion, it'll take hundreds of years, if not thousands. |
William Rothamel Send message Joined: 25 Oct 06 Posts: 3756 Credit: 1,999,735 RAC: 4 |
Just heard that the "100 billion planets", in true Sir Patrick Moore style, got a brief but interesting mention on the BBC TV "Sky at Night" program. Hopefully a story and astronomy that will develop for some time yet... If there were just a dozen requirements that a planet had to possess to sustain life as we know it and each of these turns out to be 20% likely then (.2^12)(100^9)= 4 I happen to think that that may well be right. 4 others in our galaxy !! Time may prove me totally wrong in my SWAG. If true then we will most likely never confirm the existence of any similar intelligence. I do think that if all the conditions are met then life will start and evolve unless it were a one in a billion lucky lightning stike that produced the first amino acids. We can take solace in the fact that there are a 100 Billion galaxies. Sometimes when I walk through the park each morning I think that there may be many more requirements for a planet to support life. It will be interesting over the years to see how these percentages go. It will be interesting to see if life developed o Mars and how long it lasted. |
Bob DeWoody Send message Joined: 9 May 10 Posts: 3387 Credit: 4,182,900 RAC: 10 |
Another possible factor that hasn't been discussed much in the search for planets that could support life is the existence of moons around some of the extra solar gas giants that have been found and the possibility that there may be far more moons with the right conditions than there are planets. Bob DeWoody My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events. |
Bob DeWoody Send message Joined: 9 May 10 Posts: 3387 Credit: 4,182,900 RAC: 10 |
Since we only have earth as an example I think sometimes people assume too much in their hypothesis about the factors required for intelligent life to arise. Lets face it, up to about a million years ago an investigation of earth would not have yielded positive data and some other form of intelligent life might have concluded that earth did not have the right conditions. Bob DeWoody My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events. |
William Rothamel Send message Joined: 25 Oct 06 Posts: 3756 Credit: 1,999,735 RAC: 4 |
might have concluded that earth did not have the right conditions That's right, Time is one of the conditions. Given all the other necessary conditions what is the probability on a given planet that is found that enough time has gone on for intelligent life to form. Planets that have cooled to habitable temperatures may still need a few billion years to spawn intelligent life as we would define ourselves. The Earth would have been correctly classified as not being able to support such life back a few million years ago or perhaps you could argue 100,000 years ago. |
Lint trap Send message Joined: 30 May 03 Posts: 871 Credit: 28,092,319 RAC: 0 |
I happen to think that that may well be right. 4 others in our galaxy !! Even if you're right and there are only a handful in our Galaxy, they aren't necessarily evenly distributed throughout it. Where there's one, there could be another close by. Lt |
William Rothamel Send message Joined: 25 Oct 06 Posts: 3756 Credit: 1,999,735 RAC: 4 |
Where there's one, there could be another close by. Yes that's right. But in a Galaxy 300,000 light-years across, how likely is it that it would be close by. |
Lint trap Send message Joined: 30 May 03 Posts: 871 Credit: 28,092,319 RAC: 0 |
It seems reasonable to begin a search where one example already exists. If the conditions were favorable in the beginning over a large enough area (Galactic scale) maybe other systems in the 'favorable zone' started out just as well off. Lt |
Convergence Send message Joined: 23 Jun 08 Posts: 117 Credit: 2,928,788 RAC: 0 |
[quote] I hope they realize that we already brought life to the planet in the form of microbes. |
musicplayer Send message Joined: 17 May 10 Posts: 2430 Credit: 926,046 RAC: 0 |
Any chance life started here on earth with either bacteria or viruses coming in from outer space, waking up from possible long lasting hibernation and starting evolving and replicating when once again waking up? Bacteria are supposed to be one-celled organisms. What is the next second step following that? Am(o)eba? Life is supposed to have started in water and later came up on shore evolving first into reptilian animals, later into mammals. The human race is supposed to have evolved from apes and as a result of this, we became an intelligent race. My best guess is that birds did not evolve directly from fish, but from land based animals. This was really in the start of the dinosaur area. As far as I know, there were no birds before the age of dinosaurs. Maybe someone else knows more about this? |
William Rothamel Send message Joined: 25 Oct 06 Posts: 3756 Credit: 1,999,735 RAC: 4 |
The birds evolved from dinosaurs. Scales became feathers. Though there may still be some skeptics, the preponderance of evidence in the fossil record seems to support this conclusion. |
tullio Send message Joined: 9 Apr 04 Posts: 8797 Credit: 2,930,782 RAC: 1 |
Was this the result of a global warming? I have read an article (on Science magazine) which says that in hot climates the animals' size tends to shrink, because it is easier to cool small animals. Tullio |
ML1 Send message Joined: 25 Nov 01 Posts: 20265 Credit: 7,508,002 RAC: 20 |
Was this the result of a global warming? I have read an article (on Science magazine) which says that in hot climates the animals' size tends to shrink, because it is easier to cool small animals. Unless you're a dinosaur with big cooling fins along your spine, or an elephant with very big ears, or humans with aircon... But yes, having more surface area compared to mass (small) does appear to give an evolutionary advantage in high heat, and vice-versa (big) for cold. All on just this one planet! Martin See new freedom: Mageia Linux Take a look for yourself: Linux Format The Future is what We all make IT (GPLv3) |
Convergence Send message Joined: 23 Jun 08 Posts: 117 Credit: 2,928,788 RAC: 0 |
[quote] Yes. The Mars rovers and other miscellaneous equipment that landed contained them. It wasn't intentional, though. Bacteria is everywhere here on Earth. |
Bob DeWoody Send message Joined: 9 May 10 Posts: 3387 Credit: 4,182,900 RAC: 10 |
If Mars today can support some form of life, especially bacteria and viruses, or maybe single celled life it may be hard to prove if and when life forms are discovered whether they originated there or mutated from organisms that hitched a ride on one of our landers. Bob DeWoody My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events. |
skildude Send message Joined: 4 Oct 00 Posts: 9541 Credit: 50,759,529 RAC: 60 |
NASA is very careful about being incredibly sanitary when building probes and landers for the very reason you mentioned. In a rich man's house there is no place to spit but his face. Diogenes Of Sinope |
Uruloki9 Send message Joined: 1 May 09 Posts: 1 Credit: 3,624,823 RAC: 0 |
Wow, a lot of points to cover, but I think I will just make one regarding the drake equation. As the one poster pointed out there are likely lots of variables. Some of those variables might make it more likely there is life instead of just less likely. My main problem with the equation is we simply don't have enough data. Think about the "Dark Matter" factors. We humans are basically blind. We don't see at least 70% of the stuff in our universe. True intelligent life could be all around us and we simply don't have the ability to perceive it. I think of us as a form of slug in this context. (Granted that could be a little high on the scale of evolution) But, the point is we have a very limited understand of the true nature of the universe and likely are missing a few chromosomes that would make things clear. |
Bob DeWoody Send message Joined: 9 May 10 Posts: 3387 Credit: 4,182,900 RAC: 10 |
The Drake equation was never intended to be a precision tool but mearly a means to estimate the likelyhood of other intelligent beings out there. I can remember when the variable for star systems with planets was very low and even then when all of the variables were combined the odds seemed pretty good that we are not alone. Now with the estimate for the percentage of star systems with planets has increased several fold odds wise it looking more like a sure thing. Even so as long as there is no contact officially we are still alone. Bob DeWoody My motto: Never do today what you can put off until tomorrow as it may not be required. This no longer applies in light of current events. |
William Rothamel Send message Joined: 25 Oct 06 Posts: 3756 Credit: 1,999,735 RAC: 4 |
The uncertanty with the Drake equation and any estimate(including any number that I might guess at) of percentages is extremeely large. I don't think that the Drake equation tried to estimate any of the physical conditions for intelligent life: Temperature, orbit, magnetic field, gravity, etc perhaps there are a dozen or more of these. We will get a better handle on some of these in the future. |
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