The End is Near...... |
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Message boards : Politics : The End is Near......
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Finally, a politician with big brass ones..... | |
| ID: 1177030 · | |
Finally, a politician with big brass ones..... Sadly, I think you have a point... Kinda sorta... Also, sadly, I doubt it will be limited to Europe. The USA is facing many of the same issues. That said, I highly doubt we would be looking at 'WWIII'... As you quoted the USA General, 'civil unrest'. On the one hand, one has the governments who have over-promised a wide range of benefits to their peoples. On the other hand, you have the harsh economic realities of the situation. A lot of debt has been racked up through deficit spending that must be dealt with, either through huge spending cuts or by inflating your way out of the debt. Cutting spending is NOT going to be popular with the people, and the common Euro currency is going to make the inflation option a lot more difficult for Europe (a disability that the USA does not share in the current mess). Neither way forward is pain free. Neither way forward is likely to be a permanent fix without a fundamental shift in policy on the part of the governments to avoid the same mess in the future. It will NOT be very popular. The inflation would likely have to continue to keep on wiping out new debt being created, and as time went on any drastic spending cuts would be more and more likely to be reversed. This is an ugly situation with ugly solutions. The potential for civil unrest is quite high indeed. Anything from larger versions of the Athens riots all the way through the 1789-France-style regime change. It will be interesting to watch on both sides of the Atlantic. ____________ AMD Athlon II X3-450 | |
| ID: 1177061 · | |
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Kong, it's called Keynesian economics. At least that's what the people who think it's an upward spiral call it. If you look at the math of it, which I'm sure you have, I (and many other people) call it a ponzy scheme. | |
| ID: 1177071 · | |
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I personally think that Cameron didn't have a lot of choice but to go this route, given the rising Tory back bench rebellion if he didn't. However it has left a rift in the Coalition government ... | |
| ID: 1177075 · | |
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I agree with Chris, Cameron had no choice as the Fiscal unification was not in Britain's interests. | |
| ID: 1177135 · | |
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It's not only I that was thinking of war.... | |
| ID: 1177141 · | |
Kong, it's called Keynesian economics. At least that's what the people who think it's an upward spiral call it. If you look at the math of it, which I'm sure you have, I (and many other people) call it a ponzy scheme. Well, I am very familiar with the discredited work of Keynes. It got disproved a long time ago, well before it was implemented in any major way. In January of 1931, the Viennese economist Friedrich Hayek delivered a series of 4 lectures at the London School of Economics totally refuting Keynes' theories. Keynesian economics was shown to be crap then, and it is still crap today. Oh, and it is Ponzi scheme, not Ponzy... And small groups of people getting together and doing the 'deciding' wasn't just WWI to the present... It has been the way of things for the entire history of the human race. As to the bulk of your statement, even though it is a bit... rough around the edges, I agree with it for the most part. What most people today call 'rights' are mostly privileges. Very few are actually rights. The foundation right is the right to property, all the other rights (such as right to life) descending from it. When a society allows the weakening of the right to property through forced redistribution of wealth by the government, the other rights are weakened as well. To use an Orwellism, it is 'doubleplusungood'. And as far as me calling the events 'interesting', well... the term interesting carries a multitude of shades of meaning. The one I had in mind was the alleged 'ancient Chinese curse' "May you live in interesting times". Most all of Europe is boned over this difficulty (and the USA is too, it will just take us a little bit longer to reach). There is a limit on how much taxes can be raised. So sooner or later they are going to have to cut spending. The more they deficit spend, the more of the government budget in later years is going to have to be dedicated to debt service meaning even higher levels of deficit spending will be necessary. It is a very nasty vicious cycle. Politicians are reluctant to cut spending. They fear being voted out of office (and rightly so since ever increasing amounts of the electorate becomes dependent of the spending). So, up to now they have just kicked the can on down the road to be dealt with in the future. The problem with this is that every time a solution is put off, the pain of solving the problem grows larger, and the chances for putting it off again grows smaller. Sooner or later the day of reckoning arrives and 'there is a small chance we might get voted out of office' has turned into 'we are going to be lucky if the rioting people don't storm parliament/congress and lynch us'. European (and US) politicians have promised numerous things to their people that there just isn't the money to pay for anymore, and the timer is ticking for it to all blow up in their faces. Yep. Interesting times indeed. ____________ AMD Athlon II X3-450 | |
| ID: 1177158 · | |
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I think the Euro zone just might realize that the southern Euro countries need to have a diminished Euro (say at about 60% or so of the existing northern Euro). I have no idea how that would be accomplished, but the unified currency was supposed to bring development to the south so that it could approach the north in productivity. For various reasons that has not occurred. Heck you can see it in Italy where the 'functional' Euro economy stops at about Rome.
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| ID: 1177172 · | |
I think the Euro zone just might realize that the southern Euro countries need to have a diminished Euro (say at about 60% or so of the existing northern Euro). I have no idea how that would be accomplished, but the unified currency was supposed to bring development to the south so that it could approach the north in productivity. For various reasons that has not occurred. Heck you can see it in Italy where the 'functional' Euro economy stops at about Rome. "Common sense", Barry. But even after two world wars we still give power hungry, wealthy hungry individuals the freedom to gain positions of influence far in excess of that which they should be entitled to. Because of this we have this botched attempt to grow a united states of Europe because we don't like America but the're bigger than us so now we need to be as big as them. The problem here is that the UK kind'a-likes the Americans and for that we don't fit in well with the European philosophy behind the building of this super States of Europe. Europe has constantly been worried about the over-influence America could have upon it's development, post WW2. President Charles de gaulle used this worry as his reason for blocking the UK's entry into the Common Market back in the 60's. For he felt that if the UK came in then the Americans would gain influence through their close relationship with the UK. de gaulle was no fool, so he possibly had genuine reasons in fearing American over-influence in a new post war developing Europe. But this fear could also have been a fundamental mistake on his part. For he stated that, upon the Common Market being formed, "We must not let this formation lead us into building a European State for to do this will lead to eventual failure". Well, had de gaulle permitted the USA to have an element of influence over Europe's development then a safety guard would have been put in place for the USA would not have allowed the Common Market to develop into a super States of Europe, one that could work in opposition to them. This is what has been happening for as soon as de gaulle passed away out come the power hungry brigade who plotted, planned then started to build a super States of Europe. Germany, France, you have both been utter fools in allowing the power hungry brigade to influence your thinking on Europe's development. Prime Minister Edward Heath UK 1974 (thick-Ed'), did you not read the treaty you were signing up to when you conned the UK electorate into voting to join the Common Market??? I don't suppose you did, you left it to your advisers to do that. When the mistake in joining was realized the party, on realization, soon kicked you out. Germany, your brilliant at business and home economics but embarrassingly nieve when it comes to understanding other countries abilities to posses the same. No you can't have a common budgetary policy for all 27 member countries because they will not play game. No, the Greeks will not accept that they can't retire anymore at 50 but will have to work on till their 65 years old. No, the Italians will not allow being forced to pay tax to the level required, as is the case in all other member countries, for to them, "We earned it and not you our government so it's all ours" No, the French will not accept much lower government pensions because if you try that on with us we will erect burning blockades and bring our ports to a stand-still...and worse!! So what will happen? The remaining ECM countries (26) will sign a new budgetary treaty hoping this will stabilize the money markets. Next they will attempt to implement these budgetary policies but soon find many member countries are not playing ball because of civil unrest. So as a last resort in supporting the Euro plus the run on various member countries bonds they will give the Europeans Central Bank (ECB) full autonomy over currency control....they will turn the printing presses on and use this money to buy up all struggling countries bonds....and yes you've got it, along with this act will come hyperinflation across Europe. At this point Germany will see post pre-WW2 events happening all over again. They will not accept this and so will have to ditch the Euro and automatically gain stability again. At this point the Euro becomes dead and all countries peddling it will have to adapt back to their own currencies again. France will be financially damaged severely and will see Germany and the UK as their enemies. Only for a short time though for realization will soon set-in and the mistakes made fully appreciated. Soon someone will come up with an idea of building a Common Market again but just that and nothing else. One which will involve not only Europe but also America and Canada too. Creating a unified Northrn Hemisphere trading agreement something that the French have been against since post WW2. But at the moment, "No Barry", we can't show common sense over Europe because this does not fit-in with the Brussels bureaucrats nor technocrats nor power hungrycrats philosophies! But it soon will once this band have finally gone....shot hopefully!! ____________ The Kite Fliers -------------------- Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes. | |
| ID: 1177196 · | |
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Blimey Nick, quite an outpouring! I agree with a lot of what you say. | |
| ID: 1177222 · | |
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Well over half the country says he got it right..... | |
| ID: 1177231 · | |
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Kong, sorry, misspelled Ponzi. And, yes, you are correct; it's been the way of things for the entire history of the human race. I arbitrarily picked WWI as a starting point to make my point. | |
| ID: 1177271 · | |
Blimey Nick, quite an outpouring! I agree with a lot of what you say. Chris, the UK has done well then, since last month when our exports to Europe were last quoted they stood as 60%. But the problem here with this quoted figure is that it does not take into account whether these exports were for European member states consumption or for onwards transit through European ports and out to the rest of the world. Brussels has a strange way of logging what is an inport and what is an export with relation to the ECM. Lord Rees-Mogg, past financial Journalist Times newspaper, issued a publication on this ECM import/export anomaly around about 2000. Then it was worked out that 40% of our exports went to Europe of which 22% was for ECM consumption and the other 18% was for forwards transit through the ECM and out to the rest of the world. Is this % ratio still the same today? What Cameron did amounts to a wake-up call to Europe and unless member countries take back powers from Brussels then the whole shebang is doomed. The ECM decided that it could run before first learning to walk, now it's legs have started to buckle beneath it. The whole outfit is now run by an unaccountable band of Brussels hedonists, so do away with Brussels and things can be made to work again. Keep Brussels alive so see the ECM die, the choice is Europe's on which way they go...I know which way I'd go and that would be the Cameron way....for now. Regarding the ECM keeping their hands off our city is only a basic right that we are entitled to protect. For it is one of our major exports in services and the French president has no right to claim that by staying independent it therefore takes money away from Europe. He sees our city institutions as a cash source to support the ailing ECM finances, what shortsighted folly on his behalf. The real problem is that the ECM has failed to control effectively what money it does receive from member states. Brussels wishes to introduce policies that in the end will deny any ECM state from having veto powers over any policy. Their aim will naturally be to centralise the ECM financial institution and you can guess where they will want to site them....near Brussels hence away from London. This is the risk at hand, a risk, one to many to take. If we're going to tax the city then lets do so to the total benefit to the UK and not to other ECM states that do not deserve it. ____________ The Kite Fliers -------------------- Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes. | |
| ID: 1177297 · | |
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I think a slight correction is needed on UK exports to the EU-26. Currently they stand ar 40% of our exports by value. Mind you this figure seems to bounce around between 40% and 50%. | |
| ID: 1177305 · | |
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| ID: 1177313 · | |
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Got the 40% from the BBC Newsnight examinations of the latest part of the crisis. They consistently quote 40%, and anything over 50% I, frankly, disbelieve. | |
| ID: 1177323 · | |
Got the 40% from the BBC Newsnight examinations of the latest part of the crisis. They consistently quote 40%, and anything over 50% I, frankly, disbelieve. And of that possibly only half is for ECM member sates consumption. ____________ The Kite Fliers -------------------- Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes. | |
| ID: 1177411 · | |
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Just about what I and others expected .... | |
| ID: 1178865 · | |
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I have to write that a Hybrid creature has emerged between the frech-german talks. It's a monster named MERKOZY and wants the destruction of the EU ideals and replace them by old colonial ideals. | |
| ID: 1178886 · | |
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MERKOZY DON'T LIKE RATING AGENCIES, THEY ARE BAD TO MERKOZY Nor opinion poles either, MERKOZY both most probably going to be voted out of office at there next respective countries general elections. ____________ The Kite Fliers -------------------- Kite fliers: An imaginary club of solo members, those who don't yet belong to a formal team so "fly their own kites" - as the saying goes. | |
| ID: 1178899 · | |
Message boards : Politics : The End is Near......
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