Recent quakes & possible future events


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Message boards : Science (non-SETI) : Recent quakes & possible future events

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Profile Chris S
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Message 1151177 - Posted: 11 Sep 2011, 17:53:28 UTC
Last modified: 11 Sep 2011, 17:57:47 UTC

Basically in the Pacific North West, it is the Cascadia fault line that is the problem. The Juan De Fuca plate is subducting under the North American plate at 1 to 2 inches a year. The last mag 9 quake there was in the early 1700's which is 311 years ago. The average gap is 240 years. Cascadia

The San Andreas fault is a horizontal rather than vertical one, and quakes about every 150 years. The last southern one was 1857, and the last Bay Area one was in 1906.



The Yellowstone Park Super Volcano erupts with a calendar-like cycle of every 600,000 - 650,000 years. The last eruption was more than 640,000 years ago.

Any of the three above could happen tomorrow. or in 100 or 1000 years time, No one can tell, but in the meantime life has to go on. But around the Pacific rim of fire, there does seem to be an increase in incidents with

Indian Ocean 1994, 9.1
Chile in 2010, 8.8
Japan 2011, 8.9
Vancouver 2011 6.4
New Zealand 2011 6.3

This not a doom and gloom post merely an informational one.

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Message 1151587 - Posted: 12 Sep 2011, 22:26:18 UTC

Living in the southeastern USA the only one that I feel threatened by is Yellowstone. From what I understand it could be powerful enough to wipe out most life in North America and possibly beyond.

But, as there is nothing that I or anyone else can do to prevent such an event I still haven't lost any sleep worrying about it.
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Message 1151706 - Posted: 13 Sep 2011, 6:09:39 UTC

A few days ago we had some unusually bigger 4.5 richter scale earthquake in Gobi region. Maybe around once or twice per decade we have this scale of quake around this region.
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Message 1151745 - Posted: 13 Sep 2011, 8:35:09 UTC
Last modified: 13 Sep 2011, 8:35:59 UTC

I have a look each day at this site which lists all quakes over Mag 5. I might be wrong but I'm seeing a general increase in Mag 5+ quakes from all around the world. If you look at the map I posted earlier, it's the Pacific plate moving NW, and the South American plate moving west, that seem to be causing the most problems.

Mag 5+ quakes

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Message 1151748 - Posted: 13 Sep 2011, 9:33:08 UTC

But all these quake phenomenons could relate to some kind of moon cycles or sun cycles for 50 years or 80 years, I mean any kind of unknown cycles.

But the tectonic movement is constantly happening in every geo locations like every place is moving somewhere at 2-3cm per year speed.
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Message 1152743 - Posted: 16 Sep 2011, 13:22:52 UTC

There is a theory which says that at present there is a general worldwide build up of plate tectonic tensions, which is like a coiled spring. At some point those tensions will be released, and one will impact on all the others in a cascading fashion. Then the earth will have a more peaceful time for a while.

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Message 1154196 - Posted: 20 Sep 2011, 14:50:04 UTC
Last modified: 20 Sep 2011, 14:53:52 UTC

What about super volcanos?! Massive earth quakes and super volcanos are twin brothers. There are several known sites around the world. Closest riskiest one is Yellow Stone volcano. The latest huge eruption was near Indonesia just 100 years ago.
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Message 1154356 - Posted: 21 Sep 2011, 5:16:43 UTC - in response to Message 1154196.

What about super volcanos?! Massive earth quakes and super volcanos are twin brothers. There are several known sites around the world. Closest riskiest one is Yellow Stone volcano. The latest huge eruption was near Indonesia just 100 years ago.

Yellowstone is being monitored, of course there are some who'd just like to stop that, among other things Federal, but their crazy ignorant people and their not as popular as they think.
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Message 1154642 - Posted: 21 Sep 2011, 20:43:38 UTC

Through the years I’ve heard several theories about things that might affect the planet or long term planetary cycles. Has anyone ever just plugged everything they could think of into a computer to look for cycles and correlations? Planetary alignments; small shifts in the magnetic field; solar activity; anything and everything. If we get lucky it might give them some new things to look at.

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Message 1154662 - Posted: 21 Sep 2011, 21:35:48 UTC - in response to Message 1154642.
Last modified: 21 Sep 2011, 21:36:45 UTC

Through the years I’ve heard several theories about things that might affect the planet or long term planetary cycles. Has anyone ever just plugged everything they could think of into a computer to look for cycles and correlations? Planetary alignments; small shifts in the magnetic field; solar activity; anything and everything. If we get lucky it might give them some new things to look at.


Planetary alignments; means nothing to earthquakes(planets are self isolating due to curvature of space around individual planets)
small shifts in the magnetic field; maybe, but mantle/inner+outer core studies would be better
solar activity; means nothing to earthquakes(there's no such thing as earthquake weather)
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Message 1154674 - Posted: 21 Sep 2011, 21:55:32 UTC

It is all mainly down to simple plate tectonics.

Tectonics

A different explanation lies in different forces generated by the rotation of the globe and tidal forces of the Sun and the Moon. The relative importance of each of these factors is unclear, and is still subject to debate.

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Message 1154679 - Posted: 21 Sep 2011, 22:02:18 UTC - in response to Message 1154662.

I still think I would plug in everything I could think of. We might find patterns and correlation not related to earthquakes and that might help get funding for such an endeavor. I had considered the idea that perhaps the molten core had movement or currents that might effect earthquakes by changing the temperature of the crust in a given area causing expansion and stress. I just had no clue how we might test that and thought it may cause small shifts in the magnetic field. I’m a laser guy and not well versed in the area of earthquakes but it is a very interesting topic.

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Message 1154718 - Posted: 21 Sep 2011, 22:57:58 UTC - in response to Message 1154679.

I still think I would plug in everything I could think of. ...

Tidal forces may well act as a trigger to start an earthquake that is already critically primed to start.

Earthquakes and landslips have been triggered from the change in strain and deformation to the surrounding area as a large dammed lake fills or is drained.

However, those influences are still very small compared to the forces that are involved causing an earthquake in the first place. Hence you might find a very small increase in earthquakes triggered during a certain phase of the moon for that area, but that will still say nothing about whether an earthquake would occur for that area.


Please take care to understand the difference between cause and effect and how that affects the results! (Note that in UK-English, "effect" is very different from "affect"!!)

There is some very interesting research going on for what can be detected as rock and other strata become 'critically' strained. Also, some wildlife may well already naturally detect some anomalies that we do not yet fully appreciate.

Keep searchin',
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Message 1154785 - Posted: 22 Sep 2011, 4:45:21 UTC
Last modified: 22 Sep 2011, 4:46:08 UTC

A former technician of the Gran Sasso underground National Laboratory found an increase in the radon gas in the rocks in Abruzzi and raised an alarm about a possible quake. He was indicted for spreading panic and a meeting of geophysicists ridiculed him. Then the quake came and destroyed the city of Aquila.
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Message 1154995 - Posted: 22 Sep 2011, 19:21:43 UTC

Bottom line for Yellowstone. Warning will make little or no difference since there is nothing man can do the avert the event. It's not practical to evacuate the entire north american continent. The only thing most us us can do is put your head between your knees and KYAG.
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Message 1155003 - Posted: 22 Sep 2011, 19:52:00 UTC - in response to Message 1154995.

It's been projected that an eruption there would mainly effect the western part of the USA, Of course being within 100 miles of there would not be a good idea, from what I read that would be a dead zone for a while after an eruption there. The USGS is monitoring a bulge there and of course the whole caldera... The hot spot that made Yellowstone is not static and has been moving semi North-Eastward for a very long time, hence the reason for part of the snake river valley, Yellowstone is just its latest location and its not the last, not by a long shot and it's similar to the hotspot under the Hawaiian island chain, in that both are moving... I'm at the very southwestern edge of any ash fallout zone according to what I read once.
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Message 1155187 - Posted: 23 Sep 2011, 10:50:21 UTC

One of the recent doom and gloom programs on the effects of a yellowstone event put the eastern edge of the ash cloud fallout over Georgia as the prevailing winds move from west to east. Most all of north america's ability to grow food would be wiped out for several decades. I live in Florida and even though we might survive the eruption with little or no damage the resulting influx of refugees would make for a nasty social environment.
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Message 1155199 - Posted: 23 Sep 2011, 11:40:59 UTC
Last modified: 23 Sep 2011, 11:41:29 UTC

The people from Naples live in a very dangerous situation from Mount Vesuvius but they don't seem to care much. All evacuation plans are from inadequate to simply impossible.
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Message 1155222 - Posted: 23 Sep 2011, 12:57:32 UTC
Last modified: 23 Sep 2011, 13:18:51 UTC

Whatever happens with Yellowstone people in the way would likely migrate to the farther south even breaching Mexican border. There is no any force can block if 10-50 million people would flood into Mexico from the north. Or on the optimistic side give it another 1000-50000 years.

The latest public management case in volcano situation is the one in the Iceland which on the upper wind side places were quite safe for people.


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Message 1157661 - Posted: 1 Oct 2011, 1:37:20 UTC

If unable to use motorized vehicles and if the power grid went down I don't think there would be very many survivors from the mid-western US to make it south.
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