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The Search for Life: The Drake Equation
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W-K 666 Send message Joined: 18 May 99 Posts: 18996 Credit: 40,757,560 RAC: 67 |
Sorry folks this for the UK only. Tonight, Tuesday 14 December, 2000 GMT, on BBC4 after that on the BBC site via IPlayer. For further info see: Why haven't we found aliens yet? |
William Rothamel Send message Joined: 25 Oct 06 Posts: 3756 Credit: 1,999,735 RAC: 4 |
Well if there are 10,000 as suggested how far would they be scattered in a galaxzy shaped like ours that is maybe 100,000 parsecs across. Does this average distance preclude picking up spurious radiation or even a high-powered focused beam? The uncertainty and the adequateness of the variables subject to estimation will remain a topic for debate. We may gradually answer some of the more relevant ones in the not too distant future such as: What percentage of main sequence stars have planets in a temperate zone. how many of these are are in a near circular orbit. how many have water how many stars have an outer gas giant. how many planets have a moon to stabilize spin and provide tidal action. how many have been around for billions of years. how many have a magnetic shield how many have an ozone layer how many have dry land? How many more conditions are necessary for intelligent like to form and how likely are these. |
William Rothamel Send message Joined: 25 Oct 06 Posts: 3756 Credit: 1,999,735 RAC: 4 |
Correction. That's 100,000 lightyears accross and 1000 lightyears thick. Not parsecs. |
Norwich Gadfly Send message Joined: 29 Dec 08 Posts: 100 Credit: 488,414 RAC: 0 |
50 years ago, Drake estimated that there are 50,000 discoverable intelligences in the Milky Way. It seems to me that the proportion of habitable worlds that would eventually produce a technological civilisation has been greatly overestimated. Our species is the first and only one that has developed advanced technology, so many planets may never develop any at all. Another factor not appreciated then is the role of our moon is stabilising the earth, these must be rare. I suspect these might be sufficient to reduce the estimate to one, i.e. the Earth. |
Johnney Guinness Send message Joined: 11 Sep 06 Posts: 3093 Credit: 2,652,287 RAC: 0 |
BBC, The Search for Life: The Drake Equation You can watch the TV show on this Youtube users channel; http://www.youtube.com/user/rachanak03 Enjoy, John. |
musicplayer Send message Joined: 17 May 10 Posts: 2430 Credit: 926,046 RAC: 0 |
Is it possible to come up with an alternative to the Drake equation? As follows: A formula in order to calculate the possibility of finding extraterrestrial life outside of earth based on our current technological capabilities. Take that challenge! |
musicplayer Send message Joined: 17 May 10 Posts: 2430 Credit: 926,046 RAC: 0 |
I came back here and actually discovered what Mr. William Rothamel wrote in Message 1056015. Interesting stuff and worth reading through a couple of times. If we are not supposed to be very successful in our search (are we only detecting signals from UFO's perhaps?), we might go back and look for signals close to stars that are both closer to us and also resembles our own sun. Like Project Ozma in the late 1960's, I think. There was an attempt trying to detect signals from stars like Tau Ceti and possibly Epsilon Eridani. Apparently with no success. Vega, Altair and Procyon could be good examples for doing this search close to nearby stars. |
Odysseus Send message Joined: 26 Jul 99 Posts: 1808 Credit: 6,701,347 RAC: 6 |
Like Project Ozma in the late 1960's, I think. There was an attempt trying to detect signals from stars like Tau Ceti and possibly Epsilon Eridani. Apparently with no success. At the time there were no known exoplanets; now there are hundreds. We are still a little way from detecting terrestrial worlds in the "Goldilocks zone", but in the coming years or decades I expect some such targets to present themselves—perhaps even to the Kepler satellite that’s already operating. P.S. Vega, Altair and Procyon could be good examples for doing this search close to nearby stars. Vega is spectral type A0 and may not be old enough to have a stable planetary system conducive to life, and indeed may not even last long enough to develop one. Altair is A7, also rather young and hot. Being a binary system Procyon isn’t considered very likely to have well-behaved planets, and it can’t have been any fun when the B component went through its red-giant stage! The A component is an F5 star, so more like Sol than the other two, but now it too is entering old age; if the system does host any life-forms their prospect for the next hundred million years or so is not at all good. |
C Olival Send message Joined: 6 Sep 10 Posts: 209 Credit: 10,675 RAC: 0 |
Any thougts of sun like stars like Delta Pavonis, Beta Hydrii of being good candites for SETI, Kepler search, even Gliese, red dwarfs fusion process lasts longer than sun like stars, thus life would have more time to develop on planets orbiting stable red dwarfs. Has SETI ever targeted the regions closer to Sgr A* for signals. |
C Olival Send message Joined: 6 Sep 10 Posts: 209 Credit: 10,675 RAC: 0 |
hard to imagine earth being the only planet in the universe with life, life's components are made of elements found with abundance through out the universe. Water might be the most prevelent soluble in the universe, any planet orbiting the goldylocks orbit around a stable star; the chance for life development is great. The Kepler team might want to focus Kepler to the Centauri system, being the closest stars to the sun, they could harbor terrastial planets. It is possible for rocky planets to form in the habitable zones in a binary system. |
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