## What can we learn from the results of seti@home to date?

Message boards : SETI@home Science : What can we learn from the results of seti@home to date?

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bigyaks

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Message 947598 - Posted: 16 Nov 2009, 11:44:28 UTC

What conclusions can we draw from the seti@home data so far processed? Can we use the (negative) data so far generated to put a cap on the likely number of detectable ET's.

e.g. if Aricebo worked 10% of the time and viewed 1% of the sky it would have had a 95% (approx) chance of detecting at least one signal in every 3000.

95% = 1-(1-(10%*1%))^n

gives n=3000

(Assuming one chance per signal and the signal was "short" and not repeated, and neglecting detecting the same signal twice), caveat, caveat, caveat, and I made up all the numbers etc. etc.

Can we therefore say that we have proven (are 95% confident) that there is less than 1 detectable signal every 2 days (or whatever)?

Is it even remotely valid to attempt this yet?

ID: 947598 ·
ignorance is no excuse

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Message 947620 - Posted: 16 Nov 2009, 15:16:59 UTC - in response to Message 947598.

you would also have to assume that any civilization out there would be on a planet that is spinning. thus making it ever so more difficult to detect signals unless the signal is specifically sent in our direction. Also note that other solar systems don't flow on our plane. so the chance that a stray signal from a spinning planet that isn't on our plane and have the signal pointed at us at the precise moment that the telescope is searching for it is pretty low. So all we can do is keep searching. It is very likely that there is life out there. its less likely that it is intelligent and even less liekly that it would be in our neighborhood (within 50 light years) where we would be able to detect a signal.

In a rich man's house there is no place to spit but his face.
Diogenes Of Sinope

End terrorism by building a school

ID: 947620 ·
bigyaks

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Message 960916 - Posted: 5 Jan 2010, 16:16:48 UTC - in response to Message 947620.

Given. But we're not talking about the actual number of civilisations but the number of "detectable" civilisations, where by detectable I mean those sending recievable signals/messages.

ID: 960916 ·
ignorance is no excuse

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Message 960934 - Posted: 5 Jan 2010, 17:36:16 UTC - in response to Message 960916.

I recall someone telling us that signals sent out would most likely have to be less than 50 Light years away worst case 100 years. So we are pretty limited on our reach for signals.

In a rich man's house there is no place to spit but his face.
Diogenes Of Sinope

End terrorism by building a school

ID: 960934 ·
Franz Bauer

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Message 962650 - Posted: 11 Jan 2010, 4:40:21 UTC - in response to Message 947598.

Absolutely nothing. All the data analyzed so far has gone into a data base where it sits waiting to be further analyzed.

For distributed computing it has been a great success. How to get; a whole lot of people to donate massive amounts of computer time, buy their own hardware and even get them to rewrite the sofware so it becomes more efficient all for free. Sorry not quite, we do get a whole bunch of meaningless credits to keep it competative. If all this computing results in some thing beneficial to mankind, they will gladly sell it to you for big bucks.

Who ever came up with the idea should get the Noble Prize for "The Greatest Con Job Ever".

Oh well, at least it has been fun.
Franz

ID: 962650 ·
Gary Charpentier
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Message 962665 - Posted: 11 Jan 2010, 4:57:46 UTC - in response to Message 962650.

Absolutely nothing. All the data analyzed so far has gone into a data base where it sits waiting to be further analyzed.

True, the public ntpckr isn't up. The private ntpckr is and has checked all the data. Well until the recent database corruption which might also explain the public ntpckr being offline.

The absence of signals does tell us something. It tells us intelligent life isn't ubiquitous. That alone should tell us to preserve what we have.

For distributed computing it has been a great success. How to get; a whole lot of people to donate massive amounts of computer time, buy their own hardware and even get them to rewrite the sofware so it becomes more efficient all for free. Sorry not quite, we do get a whole bunch of meaningless credits to keep it competative. If all this computing results in some thing beneficial to mankind, they will gladly sell it to you for big bucks.

Snort. Unless you aren't talking about SETI.

Who ever came up with the idea should get the Noble Prize for "The Greatest Con Job Ever".

Oh well, at least it has been fun.
Franz

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

ID: 962665 ·
Dirk Villarreal Wittich

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Message 963098 - Posted: 13 Jan 2010, 22:32:11 UTC

Presented by Seth Shostak, SETI Institute.

The scientific hunt for extraterrestrial intelligence is now into its fifth decade, and we still haven't uncovered a confirmed peep from the cosmos. For that matter, we still dont know if life at any level of intelligence exists beyond Earth. Could this mean that finding aliens, even if theyre out there, is a project for the ages one that might take centuries or longer?

The preferred technique used to hunt down cosmic company is to look for persistent radio signals or laser flashes from nearby star systems. But could this be a flawed strategy?

In this presentation, well consider some strategies that new SETI experiments might consider, as well as discuss why its possible that we might find evidence of sophisticated intelligence within only a few decades.

Seth is the Senior Astronomer at the SETI Institute, in Mountain View, California. He has an undergraduate degree in physics from Princeton University, and a doctorate in astronomy from the California Institute of Technology. For much of his career, Seth conducted radio astronomy research on galaxies, and has published approximately sixty papers in professional journals.

He has written several hundred popular magazine and Web articles on various topics in astronomy, technology, film and television. He lectures on astronomy and other subjects at Stanford and other venues in the Bay Area, and for the last six years, has been a Distinquished Speaker for the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. He is also Chair of the International Academy of Astronautics SETI Permanent Study Group. Every week he hosts the SETI Institutes science radio show, Are We Alone?

Seth has edited and contributed to a half dozen books. He has also been the principal author of four: Sharing the Universe: Perspectives on Extraterrestrial Life, Life in the Universe (textbook with Jeff Bennett), Cosmic Company (with Alex Barnett), and, most recently, Confessions of an Alien Hunter.

Seth Shostak was hosted by Boris Debic.

Strategies in the search for ET---->Here

ID: 963098 ·

Message boards : SETI@home Science : What can we learn from the results of seti@home to date?