Do you really think SETI(@home) will succeed?


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Profile Chris
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Message 888322 - Posted: 25 Apr 2009, 20:09:22 UTC

I my opinion the possibility of intelligent life in universe are small (even it is so big).
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Profile Sir Ulli
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Message 888342 - Posted: 25 Apr 2009, 21:27:27 UTC - in response to Message 888322.

read this

http://www.carlsagan.com/

Greetings from Germany NRW
Ulli


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Message 888371 - Posted: 25 Apr 2009, 23:27:13 UTC - in response to Message 888342.
Last modified: 25 Apr 2009, 23:27:40 UTC

read this

http://www.carlsagan.com/

Greetings from Germany NRW
Ulli



Good answer Ulli, i like it :)



I my opinion the possibility of intelligent life in universe are small (even it is so big).

I disagree, i think there is lots of intelligent life. But its so far away its going to be very difficult to detect it with our current technology.

But technology is improving all the time.

John.
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Message 888377 - Posted: 26 Apr 2009, 1:00:56 UTC

The question is:

what type of intellignce?

what level.

a dog is intellegent.

some animals are very smart.

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Message 888399 - Posted: 26 Apr 2009, 3:37:44 UTC

Truthfully, I am not sure Seti@home will find ET given it's current setup. Despite the fact that crunching power is increasing rapidly due to Moore's Law, I believe that Seti@home is held back by only being able to use Arecibo. It was fine to begin with but at this point I feel that in order to find ET, Seti@home will have to either scan much more of the sky, do targeted searches, or widen the range of frequencies that are monitored. Scanning the same patch of sky over and over and over will only yield so many potential results.

In short, unless Seti@home expands to other telescopes, other parts of the sky, or other frequencies, it will eventually reach the point of diminishing returns...assuming it hasn't gotten to that point already.
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Message 888405 - Posted: 26 Apr 2009, 5:06:13 UTC - in response to Message 888399.

In short, unless Seti@home expands to other telescopes, other parts of the sky, or other frequencies, it will eventually reach the point of diminishing returns...assuming it hasn't gotten to that point already.

Given that no real data analysis has been done it was already at that point from the very beginning.
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Message 888425 - Posted: 26 Apr 2009, 7:55:29 UTC - in response to Message 888405.

Given that no real data analysis has been done it was already at that point from the very beginning.

That sounds like personal opinion and blind impatience.

The search being made with the Arecibo data has steadily expanded in breadth and depth since the first 'look-see' projects many years ago.

There's been the one directed reobservation run.

Hopefully the "Nitpickr" (sp?) will find a few things that will lead to further questions and investigation.

Also, Astropulse is new and is almost guaranteed to find something interesting, whether or not that might be ET itself.

It's all part of the continually improving search and a grand experiment!

Happy crunchin',
Martin

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Message 888433 - Posted: 26 Apr 2009, 8:58:12 UTC - in response to Message 888399.

Scanning the same patch of sky over and over and over will only yield so many potential results.


Unless ET's signal hasn't got to us quite yet.

Can you image giving up the search tomorrow, and THE signal arriving next week.

But then, if that really did happen, we wouldn't know ........ :(

For me crunching and breathing are both essential.

PS: I know, I started later than a lot of others, just means I gotta crunch like a crazy man to catch up! .... Oh wait, Maybe I am a crazy man. :)

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Message 888441 - Posted: 26 Apr 2009, 9:22:56 UTC - in response to Message 888433.

Scanning the same patch of sky over and over and over will only yield so many potential results.


Unless ET's signal hasn't got to us quite yet.

Can you image giving up the search tomorrow, and THE signal arriving next week.




Yeah well when it comes to that it's better to keep the telescopes pointed at specific places where a civilization is likely to evolve. A targeted search pointed at areas where there are a lot of F, G, and K class stars would be more likely to hear something than a random sky scan.
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Message 888543 - Posted: 26 Apr 2009, 18:49:53 UTC - in response to Message 888425.

Given that no real data analysis has been done it was already at that point from the very beginning.

That sounds like personal opinion and blind impatience.

No data analysis is a FACT. Waiting 10 years is not blind impatience. Try again.
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Message 888566 - Posted: 26 Apr 2009, 20:18:58 UTC - in response to Message 888543.

Given that no real data analysis has been done it was already at that point from the very beginning.

That sounds like personal opinion and blind impatience.

No data analysis is a FACT. Waiting 10 years is not blind impatience. Try again.

Really?
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Message 888574 - Posted: 26 Apr 2009, 20:46:24 UTC - in response to Message 888566.

Given that no real data analysis has been done it was already at that point from the very beginning.

That sounds like personal opinion and blind impatience.

No data analysis is a FACT. Waiting 10 years is not blind impatience. Try again.

Really?

OK, I knowingly and willingly admit I was wrong because some newsletters sez so. The fact that this info comes by word of mouth from project admin, who would never say or do anything deceptive, is further confirmation of the sez so. No need for nitpicker (July 7, 2005!) to be completed because all this data is already being analyzed in due course cuz admin sez so. Admin has/will never issue a statement or new app just because of some press release or donation drive deadline. All the people who have said this-and-that app was not ready for public release were wrong. All the people who have pulled out of the project stating the lack of results were wrong. I thank the heavens for these newsletters. It proves beyond a shadow of a doubt SETI@home and project admin do not believe in keeping secrets and/or withholding information. You got me, Gary! I am a much happier cruncher now. :D
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Message 888693 - Posted: 27 Apr 2009, 5:08:03 UTC





ob·tuse (ŏb-tōōs', -tyōōs', əb-)
adj. ob·tus·er, ob·tus·est


Lacking quickness of perception or intellect.
Characterized by a lack of intelligence or sensitivity: an obtuse remark.
Not distinctly felt: an obtuse pain.
Not sharp, pointed, or acute in form; blunt.

[Middle English, from Old French, from Latin obtūsus, past participle of obtundere, to blunt; see obtund.]
ob·tuse'ly adv., ob·tuse'ness n.


> i remember the day i joined - i felt then [back in 2000] as i do now

- that the Search would go Well beyond my Lifetime and also my children's children's childrens lifetime

and that the 'Science' would eventually find the truth regarding whether Life existed beyond this World . . .

and that it is true [in my convictions / beliefs] that 'We Are Not Alone' in the vastness of All space & time . . .

so, thereby this belief carries itself throughout time and i do have the resilience and desire to await that said truth

- whatever We shall find and whenever We shall find that said Truth . . .




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Message 888702 - Posted: 27 Apr 2009, 5:39:10 UTC - in response to Message 888693.

ob·tuse (ŏb-tōōs', -tyōōs', əb-)
adj. ob·tus·er, ob·tus·est


Lacking quickness of perception or intellect.
Characterized by a lack of intelligence or sensitivity: an obtuse remark.
Not distinctly felt: an obtuse pain.
Not sharp, pointed, or acute in form; blunt.

[Middle English, from Old French, from Latin obtūsus, past participle of obtundere, to blunt; see obtund.]
ob·tuse'ly adv., ob·tuse'ness n.

Translated you feel like you were spanked?
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Profile Gary Charpentier
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Message 888861 - Posted: 27 Apr 2009, 19:30:03 UTC - in response to Message 888574.

Given that no real data analysis has been done it was already at that point from the very beginning.

That sounds like personal opinion and blind impatience.

No data analysis is a FACT. Waiting 10 years is not blind impatience. Try again.

Really?

OK, I knowingly and willingly admit I was wrong because some newsletters sez so. The fact that this info comes by word of mouth from project admin, who would never say or do anything deceptive, is further confirmation of the sez so. No need for nitpicker (July 7, 2005!) to be completed because all this data is already being analyzed in due course cuz admin sez so. Admin has/will never issue a statement or new app just because of some press release or donation drive deadline. All the people who have said this-and-that app was not ready for public release were wrong. All the people who have pulled out of the project stating the lack of results were wrong. I thank the heavens for these newsletters. It proves beyond a shadow of a doubt SETI@home and project admin do not believe in keeping secrets and/or withholding information. You got me, Gary! I am a much happier cruncher now. :D

No one is forcing you to crunch. Or have you just realized if your machine is the one to find ET your name isn't going to be one of the authors? Those names will be Dan Werthimer and Dr. Eric Korpela. Or are you saying that Dan Werthimer and Dr. Eric Korpela are intellectually corrupt and are lying?

Maybe you need a tweet every time another result is added to the database? Frankly I don't care if the persistency checker is run once a year or in near real time. In either case it will find potential interesting things. Perhaps you aren't aware of the timescale. It will take a year after that to schedule a re-observation run on the telescope anyway. Or did you think when the signal is found that it is going to be a virus that takes over your computer and puts a big "TAKE ME TO YOUR LEADER" on the screen?

I'm not disagreeing that the website needs to be sexied up. NTPCKR would be just one step in that direction. I'm not disagreeing that the project scientists should be breaking up the data into say year long periods and writing up a report and at least publishing it on the web site. I'm not saying that they shouldn't put much better explanatory and teaching materials about Astropulse and signal dispersion on the web site so members of the general public get a flavor of what the science is. They likely should for Multibeam as well. Maybe they should give a better description of just how long and what will be involved from "we found this spot in the sky that has this persistent signal" to "we found ET" It should mention the signal LGM1 or Little Green Men as it was called.

Maybe what is really needed is yet another application. One to look at the NTPCKR candidates. Not look for a signal, but look at the signal to extract what other information may be available. Perhaps things like frequency stability and modulation. Things that might indicate the signal wasn't naturally generated.

In any case at the ten year mark we will have completed the first 0.01% of the search. And I don't disagree that humanity needs to build a few more Arecibo class telescopes to cover the rest of the sky.


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Message 888881 - Posted: 27 Apr 2009, 20:04:13 UTC - in response to Message 888861.

Give me a tweet, Gary. It's my first day.
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Message 889005 - Posted: 28 Apr 2009, 1:17:01 UTC
Last modified: 28 Apr 2009, 1:17:58 UTC

I think that this thread is really asking two questions:

The first, as per the title, my answer would be no, I don’t think that Seti at home will succeed. From what I understand of the protocols even Earth likely would come up as a negative for intelligent life.

The second question, as suggested in the original post, is entirely different. I would say Yes, I think that intelligent life does exist elsewhere in the universe. Probably lots of elsewheres.

Recent discoveries (over the past decade or so) has picked up hundreds of large planets and, once the techniques evolve enough, I have no doubt that thousands of smaller worlds will be discovered in our stellar neighbourhood. Extrapolating that to billions of smaller worlds in our Galaxy, and many, many trillions in the universe as a whole.

Remember that life, when you get down to it, is just chemistry in action. And chemistry appears to be universal. And if life exists, then complex life exists.
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Message 889028 - Posted: 28 Apr 2009, 2:27:44 UTC - in response to Message 888881.

http://www.classbrain.com/artmovies/publish/article_50.shtml

Calculate it out for yourself using the Drake equation.

I assume low values of both Ne and fc in mine. I choose an exceptionally low value of fc - (I suspect most civilizations are more concerned with religion than anything else.) I came out with 2.63 communicating civilizations per galaxy. If our galaxy has three, Murphy's law dictates that the other two are probably hidden on the other side behind the bright galactic center. But hey, worth a shot right?
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Message 889029 - Posted: 28 Apr 2009, 2:29:54 UTC - in response to Message 889028.

The Drake equation is only a good tool to use if you're an extreme pessimist, particularly about life "out there". Carl Sagan's calculations, while a bit overly optimistic by his own words, are more hopeful.
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Message 889174 - Posted: 28 Apr 2009, 14:25:17 UTC
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It should also be remembered that, until more of the variables are nailed down with accurate numbers, the Drake equation is essentially meaningless. It is more theology than science or mathematics.

Used by both sides in the debate as proof that there is, or is not, intelligent life in our galaxy. People tend to decide what they want, then plug in values to make it so.

My (much more optimistic) running of the equations comes up with a number of about 5000 in our galaxy.
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Pure mathematics is, in its way, the poetry of logical ideas.

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